2. Practical Examples Using Each Method. 3. Overview of the Hotel Market

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1 Agenda 1. Valuation Approach 2. Practical Examples Using Each Method 3. Overview of the Hotel Market CBRE Page 1

2 1 Valuation Approach

3 Principal Methods Three primary methods of hotel valuation: 1 Income Capitalisation 2 Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) 3 Market Comparison Comparable Method CBRE Page 3

4 Income Capitalisation Review of historic, current and budget trading Project forward 1, 3 or 5 years to stabilised year /fair maintainable level Capitalise stabilised EBITDA adopting an appropriate yield Deduct aggregate profit shortfalls from capital value Deduct CAPEX amount and purchaser s costs (4.46%) CBRE Page 4

5 Discounted Cash Flow Review historic, current and budget trading figures Run 10 year projections Projected EBITDA over 10 years is discounted to present day values Capitalised EBITDA in year 10 is also discounted to present day values Factor future CAPEX into cashflow (if appropriate) Deduct purchaser s costs CBRE Page 5

6 Comparable Method Analyse recent sales on a price per bedroom basis Apply to hotel being valued Ensure both hotels are comparable Check method only not primary valuation method Be careful results can be very misleading CBRE Page 6

7 2 Practical Examples

8 CBRE Page 8 Made-Up Hotel

9 CBRE Page 9 Tools for the Preparation of a Valuation

10 CBRE Page 10 Discussions with Management

11 Made-Up Hotel Historic Trading Historic Trading Year End December December December December December December Year Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Forecast No of Rooms Occupancy 68.5% 58.4% 71.2% 74.9% 75.8% 76.7% ADR RevPAR TOTAL REVENUE 9,700,000 7,100,000 7,465,000 8,400,000 8,700,000 9,000,000 TOTAL DEPARTMENTAL EXPENSES 4,656,000 3,430,720 3,511,536 4,069,800 4,153,380 4,230,000 % of Total Revenue 48.00% 48.32% 47.04% 48.45% 47.74% 47.00% TOTAL DEPARTMENTAL PROFIT 5,044,000 3,669,280 3,953,464 4,330,200 4,546,620 4,770,000 % of Total Revenue 52.0% 51.7% 53.0% 51.6% 52.3% 53.0% TOTAL UNDISTRIBUTED EXPENSES 2,386,200 1,731,690 1,822,207 1,940,400 2,018,400 2,088,000 % of Total Revenue 24.6% 24.4% 24.4% 23.1% 23.2% 23.2% GROSS OPERATING PROFIT 2,657,800 1,937,590 2,131,258 2,389,800 2,528,220 2,682, % 27.3% 28.6% 28.5% 29.1% 29.8% NET OPERATING PROFIT / EBITDA 1,891,500 1,278,000 1,474,338 1,735,440 1,861,800 2,115,000 % of Total Revenue 19.50% 18.00% 19.75% 20.66% 21.40% 23.50% CBRE Page 11

12 Made-Up Hotel Cash Flow Projections Year End September September September Projections (Present Values) Year Projected Projected Projected No of Rooms Rooms Available 54,750 54,750 54,750 Rooms Sold 41,500 41,700 42,200 Occupancy 75.80% 76.16% 77.08% ADR RevPAR Rooms 6,432,500 6,505,200 6,667,600 Total Revenue 9,009,104 9,162,254 9,390,986 TOTAL DEPARTMENTAL EXPENSES 4,144,638 4,173,865 4,278,064 % of Total Revenue 46.00% 45.56% 45.56% TOTAL DEPARTMENTAL PROFIT 4,864,466 4,988,389 5,112,922 % of Total Revenue 54.0% 54.4% 54.4% TOTAL UNDISTRIBUTED EXPENSES 1,982,003 1,992,790 2,019,062 % of Total Revenue 22.0% 21.7% 21.5% GROSS OPERATING PROFIT 2,882,463 2,995,599 3,093, % 32.7% 32.9% NET OPERATING PROFIT /EBITDA 2,257,231 2,370,733 2,469,360 % of Total Revenue 25.05% 25.87% 26.30% Projections CBRE Page 12

13 Income Capitalisation Example FOUR STAR, 150 BEDROOM DUBLIN CITY CENTRE HOTEL (MILLION) TURNOVER EBITDA 2008 (Actual) 9.70m 1.89m 2009 (Actual) 7.10m 1.28m 2010 (Actual) 7.47m 1.47m 2011 (Actual) 8.40m 1.74m 2012 (Actual) 8.70m 1.86m 2013 (Forecast) 9.00m 2.16m 2014 (Projection) 9.00m (Projection) 9.16m 2.37m 2016 (Projection) 9.39m 2.47m CBRE Page 13

14 Income Capitalisation Calculating Shortfall - = 0.22 m Total Shortfall 0.32m - = 0.10 m CBRE Page 14

15 Valuation INCOME CAPITALISATION Stabilised EBITDA 2.47m Yield 8% YP (multiple) 12.5 Gross Value m Less Shortfall 0.32m Less Capex 0m Gross Value 30.55m Less costs (4.46%) 29.25m Value per Bedroom 195,000 CBRE Page 15

16 Discounted Cash Flow Year September Total Revenue 9,009 9,345 9,770 9,966 10,165 10,368 10,576 10,787 11,003 11, s Sale in Year 10 EBITDA 2,257 2,418 2,569 2,620 2,673 2,726 2,781 2,837 2,893 2,951 36,889 CAPEX Cash Flow after CapEx 2,257 2,418 2,569 2,620 2,673 2,726 2,781 2,837 2,893 2,951 Running Yield 7.45% 7.98% 8.48% 8.65% 8.82% 9.00% 9.18% 9.36% 9.55% 9.74% Valuation (DCF) Exit Yield 8.00% Discount Rate 10.00% Value pre-capex Analysis NPV Gross Value 30,307 Net value 28,955 CapEx if not in Cash Flow 0 Number of rooms ,307 Net value per room 193,033 Costs 4.46% IRR 9.88% NET VALUE 28,955 Net Initial Yield 7.45% Value per bedroom 193,033 CBRE Page 16

17 3 Market Overview

18 Market Yields LOCATION YIELD MULTIPLE Dublin Prime 7.00% % Dublin Secondary 8.00% % Other Cities/Major Towns Prime 8.50% % Other Cities/Major Towns 9.50% % Secondary Provincial Town 11.0% % Other 12.0% % CBRE Page 18

19 Dublin Hotels Performance Improvements continue throughout 2013 Source STR Global CBRE Page 19

20 Value of Hotel Transactions in Ireland Source CBRE Research CBRE Page 20

21 Investment In Hotels Ireland 2013 (To Q3) 106m in 20 transactions in first nine months of 2013 Source CBRE Research CBRE Page 21

22 Recent Key Hotel Sales 2012/2013 DUBLIN bedrooms 67million 133,733 per room DUBLIN bedrooms 22 million 159,420 per room DUBLIN bedrooms 35 million approx. 179,487 per room Co. Mayo 83 bedrooms 20 million approx. 240,964 per room CORK 150 bedrooms 5.0 million approx. 33,333 per room Cork 131 bedrooms 21 million 160,305 per room Kildare 36 bedrooms & 33 Lodges 2.5 million 36,231 Wicklow 51 bedrooms Excess 1 million. CBRE Page 22

23 Hotels Currently on the Market Limerick 151 bedrooms Guide: 3.0 million 19,868 per room Limerick 154 Guide: 4.0 million 25,974 per room Kildare 52 bedrooms 32 Apts, 15 cottages Guide: 4-5 million Wexford 60 Bedrooms Guide: 950,000 15,833 per bedroom Dublin 1 81 bedrooms Guide 30 million CBRE Page 23

24 Q&A Ann Marie O Byrne Director CBRE Page 24

IN THE HOTEL INDUSTRY USA EDITION 2018 SAMPLE $395

IN THE HOTEL INDUSTRY USA EDITION 2018 $395 Credits... Inside front cover FULL-Service Hotels About the Cover... 1 Publisher s Message... 4 Natural Occupancy: What Is It and What Does It Mean for ADR?...