New Zealand Economic Chart Pack. Key New Zealand Macroeconomic and Financial Market Graphs

Transcription

1 New Zealand Economic Chart Pack Key New Zealand Macroeconomic and Financial Market Graphs January

2 New Zealand Economic Chart Pack January Page

3 Contents Aggregate Output... Prices... Households... Business... 7 Government... Taxation... 9 External Sector... Labour Market... Housing Market... Financial Market... Indicators of Productive Capacity... Balance Sheet... Sectoral Saving... Ratios to GDP... 7 Miscellaneous... International... 9 Glossary... Data finalised February

4 Aggregate Output Production GDP Growth Production GDP per Capita Growth Quarterly % change (s.a.) Quarterly % change (s.a.) - Tradable & Non-tradable Activity Nominal GDP Growth Index (Mar 99Q = ) Index (Mar 99Q = ) Tradable sector 7 9 Non-tradable sector Quarterly % change (s.a.) -, The Treasury Components of Production GDP September Quarter Agriculture and Primary Food Fishing, Forestry and Mining Electricity, Gas and Water Manufacturing (ex-primary food) Construction Wholesale and Retail Services Unallocated/balancing Item Production GDP % point contribution, The Treasury Components of Expenditure GDP September Quarter Private Consumption Public Consumption Residential Investment Business Investment Exports of Goods and Services Imports of Goods and Services Change in Inventories Balancing Item GDP , The Treasury % point contribution New Zealand Economic Chart Pack January Page

5 Prices Consumers Price Index CPI Components Quarterly % change Tradable inflation 7 9 Non-tradable inflation - Source: RBNZ, Statistics New Zealand CPI Inflation & Pricing intentions Inflation Expectations Net % NBBO - pricing intentions QSBO - average selling price CPI inflation (RHS), National Bank, NZIER GDP Deflator * Derived from inflation indexed bond RBNZ survey of expectations - one year ahead NBBO - inflation expectations Implied inflation premium * Source: RBNZ, National Bank, The Treasury Consumption Deflator (s.a.) 7 9 Quarterly % change (s.a.) (s.a.) 7 9 Quarterly % change (s.a.) - New Zealand Economic Chart Pack January Page

6 Households Real Private Consumption Growth Real Core Retail Sales Growth Quarterly % change (s.a.) Quarterly % change (s.a.) - Nominal Retail Sales & Gross Earnings Growth Car Registrations Monthly core retail sales ( month moving average s.a.) Total weekly gross earnings International Travel - s per month Total car registrations New cars Consumer Confidence s per month 7 9 Car previously registered overseas s per month (s.a.) Short term New Zealand resident departures Short term overseas visitor arrivals s per month (s.a.) Index Index Westpac McDermott Miller ANZ-Roy Morgan Source: Westpac McDermott Miller, Roy Morgan New Zealand Economic Chart Pack January Page

7 Business Real Business Investment Growth Net Operating Surplus & Company Tax Quarterly % change (s.a.) Net operating surplus Company tax (lagged months) Source: The Treasury Investment & Business Profitability Non-Residential Buildings Net % Real business investment Profitability (RHS, advanced qtrs), NZIER Firms Own Activity Outlook Real non-residential building investment Value of non-residential consents Business Confidence - - Net % Net % QSBO NBBO Source: NZIER, National Bank Net % Net % QSBO NBBO Source: NZIER, National Bank New Zealand Economic Chart Pack January Page 7

8 Government Real Public Consumption Growth (ex-military) Real Non-Market Investment growth Quarterly % change (s.a.) Quarterly % change (s.a.) Government Debt to GDP Ratio (June years) Tax to GDP Ratio Gross sovereign-issued debt 7 9 Net core Crown debt Total tax revenue ( quarter moving average) Source: The Treasury Source: The Treasury Fiscal Balance (June years) Implied Company & Personal Income Tax Ratio Operating balance OBEGAL Source: The Treasury * Company tax has been lagged by quarters Company tax to corporate profit rate * Source deductions to compensation of employees rate, The Treasury New Zealand Economic Chart Pack January Page

9 Taxation Total Tax Receipts & Nominal GDP Source Deductions & Compensation of Employees Total tax receipts 7 9 Nominal GDP Source deductions 7 9 Compensation of employees - Source: The Treasury, Statistics New Zealand Source: The Treasury, Statistics New Zealand Corporate Tax & Nominal GDP Total GST & Nominal Consumption Corporate tax Nominal GDP (RHS) Source: The Treasury, Statistics New Zealand Resident Withholding Tax on Interest GST Nominal private and public consumption Source: The Treasury, Statistics New Zealand Customs GST & Nominal Goods Imports Quarterly resident withholding tax receipts 9 day bank bill yield ( qtr lag) Source: The Treasury, RBNZ Customs GST Nominal goods imports Source: The Treasury, Statistics New Zealand - - New Zealand Economic Chart Pack January Page 9

10 External Sector SNA Export Growth SNA Import Growth Goods & services export values Goods & services export volumes Goods & services import values Goods & services import volumes Current Account quarter running total Goods balance Services balance Investment & transfers balance Current account balance Composition of Export Volume Growth OTI Terms of Trade Index (June = ) Index (June = ) Import prices Export prices Terms of trade Composition of Import Volume Growth (ex-military) Primary goods Other goods 7 9 Manufacturing goods Services Capital goods Consumption goods 7 9 Intermediate goods Services - New Zealand Economic Chart Pack January Page

11 Labour Market Unemployment & Participation Rate Employment & Labour Force Growth % (s.a.) % (s.a.) Unemployment rate Participation rate (RHS inverse) Employment Growth 7 9 Labour Force Growth - Labour Productivity (GDP divided by hours worked) International Migration Quarterly % change (s.a.), The Treasury Employment Intentions s per month (s.a.) Permanent & long term arrivals Permanent & long term departures Net permanent & long term migration Wage Growth s per month (s.a.) - Net % Net % QSBO NBBO Source: NZIER, National Bank LCI salary & wage rates (non-adjusted) QES - average hourly earnings LCI salary & wage rates (adjusted) New Zealand Economic Chart Pack January Page

12 Housing Market Real Residential Investment Growth House Prices Quarterly % change (s.a.) House Sales & Building Consents REINZ - house price index Source: REINZ, QV House Sales & Days to Sell QV house price index s per month (s.a.) s per month (s.a.). s per month (s.a.) Days (s.a.) REINZ - dwelling sales Building consents - dwellings (RHS), REINZ Affordability (based on REINZ median house price) REINZ - dwelling sales REINZ - median days to sell (RHS inverse) Source: REINZ Migration & House Prices % of gross annual income x Gross annual income 7 * Based on yr fixed rate & % deposit on median house price Average mortgage payment (including principal) * Median house price to income (RHS), RBNZ, REINZ, The Treasury 7 Annual net migration (s) Net permanent & long term migration REINZ house price index (RHS), REINZ - - New Zealand Economic Chart Pack January Page

13 Financial Market Wholesale Interest Rates Retail Mortgage Rates Official cash rate (OCR) 9 day bank bill yield year government bond yield Source: RBNZ Trade Weighted Exchange Rate Index First mortgage floating rate First mortgage year fixed rate Source: RBNZ Equity Market Indices Index (Mar 99 = ) Index (Mar 99 = ) Index (Jan 99 =) Index (Jan 99 =) Nominal TWI Real TWI NZ (NZX index) UK (FTSE ) US (S&P ) Australia (All Ordinaries) Japan (Nikkei) Germany (DAX ) Source: RBNZ Source: Datastream Long Term Interest Rate Differentials Exchange Rates Basis points Basis points NZD / USD.9 NZD / AUD New Zealand / United States New Zealand / Australia Source: RBNZ, Datastream NZD / USD NZD / AUD (RHS) Source: RBNZ New Zealand Economic Chart Pack January Page

14 Indicators of Productive Capacity Output Gap Capacity Utilisation HP filter Kalman filter 7 MV filter Builders Economy wide 7 Manufacturers 9 Source: The Treasury Source: NZIER Capacity Utilisation Demand Pressures Exporters 7 Non-exporters Sales as a limiting factor 9 Source: NZIER Source: NZIER Resource Pressures Difficulty Finding Labour Net % 9 Less difficult % (s.a.) Labour as a limiting factor Finance as a limiting factor 7 9 Capacity as a limiting factor - More difficult Difficulty finding skilled labour Unemployment rate (RHS) 7 9 Difficulty finding unskilled labour Source: NZIER, NZIER New Zealand Economic Chart Pack January Page

15 Balance Sheet Household Debt to Asset Ratios Household Debt & Servicing of disposable income Housing loan to value ratio Total debt to asset ratio 7 9 Other debt to financial asset ratio Effective interest rate Household debt (RHS) 7 9 Debt servicing Source: RBNZ, The Treasury Source: RBNZ, The Treasury Household Assets & Liabilities Household Equity % of disposable income % of disposable income % of disposable income % of disposable income Housing assets Financial assets 7 9 Financial liabilities Net worth Housing equity Net worth 7 Financial equity 9 Source: RBNZ, The Treasury Source: RBNZ, The Treasury Net Foreign Assets Credit Growth * Figures prior to June qtr - interpolated from annual series Net international asset position * Total Agriculture Households Business, The Treasury Source: RBNZ New Zealand Economic Chart Pack January Page

16 Sectoral Saving Net Household Saving (March years) Net Business Saving (March years) Net household saving, The Treasury Net General Government Saving (March years) Net business saving Source: The Treasury Net National Saving (March years) Net public saving, The Treasury Gross Saving & Investment Flows quarter running total Gross national saving Gross investment Current account balance Net national saving, The Treasury Net Household Saving % of disposable income % of disposable income Net household saving, The Treasury New Zealand Economic Chart Pack January Page

17 Ratios to GDP Private Consumption Public Consumption Nominal Real Nominal Real 7 9 Residential Investment Other Investment Nominal Real Nominal Real 7 9 Nominal Imports & Exports Real Imports & Exports Exports Imports Imports Exports 7 9 New Zealand Economic Chart Pack January Page 7

18 Miscellaneous Soil Moisture Deficit Southern Oscillation Index Index La Nina El Nino Index Source: NIWA Southern Oscillation Index Source: Electricity Generation Electricity Price GWh GWh $/MWh $/MWh Hydro electricity generation Thermal electricity generation Average monthly electricity price -, Ministry of Economic Development Source: M-co Trading Partner Growth Purchasing Managers Indices Forecast Forecast date Index 7 9 UK Japan US China Euro Area AUS Index Source: IMF, Consensus Economics Source: Bloomberg, Markit Group Ltd New Zealand Economic Chart Pack January Page

19 International Real GDP Growth CPI Inflation Australia United States Japan United Kingdom Euro area New Zealand, Datastream Official Interest Rates As at // % Australia United States Japan United Kingdom Euro area New Zealand, Datastream Short term Interest Rates Australia United States Japan United Kingdom Euro area New Zealand - Source: RBNZ, Datastream Unemployment Rate Source: RBNZ, Datastream Current Account % (s.a.) % (s.a.) Australia United States Japan United Kingdom Euro area New Zealand, Datastream Australia United States Japan United Kingdom Euro area New Zealand, Datastream New Zealand Economic Chart Pack January Page 9

20 Glossary CPI GDP LCI NBBO NZIER OBEGAL OTI QES QSBO QV RBNZ REINZ S.A. SNA Consumers Price Index Gross Domestic Product Labour Cost Index National Bank Business Outlook New Zealand Institute of Economic Research Operating Balance Before Gains and Losses Overseas Trade Index Quarterly Employment Survey Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion Quotable Value Ltd Reserve Bank of New Zealand Real Estate Institute of New Zealand Seasonally Adjusted System of National Accounts New Zealand Economic Chart Pack January Page