OUTLOOK FOR THE NEW ZEALAND GOVERNMENT DEBT MARKET

Transcription

1 OUTLOOK FOR THE NEW ZEALAND GOVERNMENT DEBT MARKET All photography sourced from: 1 The Treasury

2 OVERVIEW 1 New Zealand Economic Outlook 2 New Zealand Government Bonds: Risk/Reward 3 Fiscal Priorities: Budget May NZDMO: Announcements and StrategyAnnouncemets and strategy ZDMO Announcements and strategy 2

3 1. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 3

4 SOLID GROWTH OUTLOOK (Annual average % change) Jun-00 Jun-03 Jun-06 Jun-09 Jun-12 Jun-15 Jun-18 Jun-21 Quarterly Real Production GDP Growth - Budget Update Forecast Source: Statistics NZ, Treasury 4

5 NET MIGRATION REMAINS STRONG (annual total) 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Forecast -10,000-20,000 Jun-00 Jun-03 Jun-06 Jun-09 Jun-12 Jun-15 Jun-18 Jun-21 Quarterly Net Migration - Budget Update Source: Statistics NZ, Treasury 5

6 EXPORT OUTLOOK POSITIVE Services Exports Goods Terms of Trade (Annual average % change) (index) Forecast 1,400 1,300 1,200 Forecast ,100 1, Jun-00 Jun-03 Jun-06 Jun-09 Jun-12 Jun-15 Jun-18 Jun-21 Quarterly Real Services Exports - Budget Update 800 Jun-00 Jun-03 Jun-06 Jun-09 Jun-12 Jun-15 Jun-18 Jun-21 Quarterly SNA Goods Terms of Trade - Budget Update Source: Statistics NZ, Treasury 6

7 LABOUR SUPPLY MATCHING DEMAND (% of labour force) 7 (% of working-age population - inv) Mar 00 Mar 02 Mar 04 Mar 06 Mar 08 Mar 10 Mar 12 Mar 14 Mar 16 NZ unemployment rate NZ participation rate (rh) 72 Source: Statistics NZ, Treasury 7

8 INFLATION TO RETURN TO TARGET (%) Forecasts Jun 00 Jun 03 Jun 06 Jun 09 Jun 12 Jun 15 Jun 18 Jun 21 NZ Headline CPI Inflation NZ Non-Tradables CPI Inflation NZ Tradables CPI Inflation Source: Statistics NZ, Treasury 8

9 NZ NET INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT POSITION HAS IMPROVED (% of GDP) (% of GDP) Forecast Jun-00 Jun-03 Jun-06 Jun-09 Jun-12 Jun-15 Jun-18 Quarterly NZ Net International Investment Position (% of GDP) NZ Current Account (% GDP) (rh) -9 Source: Treasury 9

10 2. NZGBS: RISK/REWARD 10

11 SOLID CREDIT RATINGS Moody s Aaa/Aaa (stable) Standard & Poor s AA+/AA (stable) Fitch AA+/AA (stable) New Zealand s credit profile reflects its very high economic resilience, very strong institutions and political effectiveness and a strong fiscal position compared to peers. 20 July 2017 New Zealand has monetary and fiscal flexibility, a resilient economy, and institutions conducive to swift and decisive policy actions. 19 Jan 2017 New Zealand s AA rating reflects the country s strong macroeconomic policy framework and prudent fiscal management, reinforced by governance standards and a business environment that are rated among the best globally by the World Bank. 13 Mar 2017 Source: Moody s Investor Service, Standard and Poor s, Fitch Ratings latest credit assessment 11

12 NZ S STABILITY STANDS OUT Worldwide Governance Indicators World Bank (percentile rank) Control of Corruption 100 Voice and Accountability Government Effectiveness 70 Rule of Law Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism Regulatory Quality New Zealand Sovereigns rated AA/Aa2 and higher (average) Source: World Bank, Bloomberg, Moody s Investor Service, Standard and Poor s, Fitch Ratings 12

13 STRONG BALANCE SHEET Luxembourg Sweden Norway Turkey Taiwan New Zealand Switzerland Denmark Hong Kong Czech Republic Poland South Korea Australia Slovakia Iceland Netherlands Israel Finland Germany United States Hungary Ireland Slovenia Austria United Kingdom France Canada Spain Belgium Portugal Italy Greece Japan Sovereign Debt as % of GDP % GDP Source: Bloomberg 13

14 POSITIVE SPREAD TO PEERS (%) NZ-US 10Y Bond Yields NZ-AU 10Y Bond Yields NZ 10Y Bond Yields (RH) (%) Jan 1997 Jan 2001 Jan 2005 Jan 2009 Jan 2013 Jan 2017 Source: Bloomberg, * Generic bond spreads 14

15 ATTRACTIVE REAL YIELDS (%) UK Germ JP US AU NZ* 10Y Real Yields (IIB Yield) 10Y Inflation Breakevens * NZ data refers to the 2025 maturity Source: Bloomberg 15

16 GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN LIQUIDITY (NZ$m) 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Non-Repo (3mth average of weekly turnover) Source: RBNZ 16

17 WEAKENED LINK WITH CURRENCY (%) Mar 95 Mar 98 Mar 01 Mar 04 Mar 07 Mar 10 Mar 13 Mar 16 Source: Bloomberg Non-resident holdings of NZGBs (%) NZ TWI (RH)

18 3. FISCAL PRIORITIES: BUDGET - MAY

19 FISCAL PRIORITIES MET & EXTENDED NZD billion 10 5 Forecast NZD billion Forecast 40% 35% "The Government has set out a clear plan for the next three years, which involves returning to budget surplus in 2014/15." Budget Policy Statement, 16 February % 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Operating Balance (ex gains and losses) Net Core Crown Debt % Nominal GDP (RHS) 0% 19

20 STEADY BOND ISSUANCE Year End 30 June (face value) Total Gross NZGB issuance (NZ$b) NZGB maturities and repurchases (NZ$b) Net NZGB issuance (NZ$b) NZGBs on issue (NZ$b) Source: NZDMO - In conjunction with BEFU, 25 May

21 OUTTURNS BEATING EXPECTATIONS % of GDP 28 Forecast Net Debt as % of GDP May-14 Dec-14 May-15 Dec-15 May-16 Dec-16 May Source: Treasury 21

22 GOVERNMENT COMMITMENT TO MAINTAIN NZGB ABOVE 20% OF GDP OVER TIME Forecast Illustrative % GDP 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Total NZGBs (% GDP, RHS) Minimum NZGBs (% GDP, RHS) Net Core Crown Debt (%GDP, RHS) Total NZGBs - no minimum (% GDP, RHS) 0% Source: Treasury 22

23 ANNUAL ISSUANCE STABILISED NZD billion NZD billion 80 Forecast Annual bond issuance Total bonds oustanding (RHS) Source: Treasury 23

24 2. NZDMO ANNOUNCEMENTS AND STRATEGY 24

25 FUNDING STRATEGY PRIORITIES Balance Sheet Management approach Reduce overall fiscal variability Reduce refinancing risk Commitment to inflation-indexed bonds Build and maintain liquidity Diversify investor base Encourage intermediary participation Focus on domestic issuance Execute in a Transparent, Even-handed and Consistent manner 25

26 PORTFOLIO COMPOSITION REDUCES FISCAL VARIABILITY, REFINANCING RISK October 2012 July % 2% 19% 5% 82% 76% Source: The Treasury 26

27 INTENTION TO SYNDICATE NZGB 2029 (NZD b) Dec 17 Mar 19 Apr 20 May 21 Apr 23 Apr 25 Sep 25 Apr 27 Apr 29 Sep 30 Apr 33 Sep 35 Apr 37 Sep 40 Outstanding - Nominal Outstanding - IIB Available capacity No m Source: The Treasury 27

28 CONSISTENT INCREASE IN OFFSHORE AND DOMESTIC DEMAND NZD million % 80, ,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Non-resident holdings of NZGBs Resident holdings of NZGBs Proportion held for non-residents (rh) Source: RBNZ 28

29 CONTINUE REPURCHASE PROGRAM 100 Non-Resident Holdings (%) Jul 2015 Jan 2016 Jul 2016 Jan 2017 December 2017 (GB1217) March 2019 (GB0319) April 2020 (GB0420) May 2021 (GB0521) April 2023 (GB0423) April 2025 (GB0425) Source: RBNZ April 2027 (GB0427) April 2033 (GB0433) April 2037 (GB0437) 29

30 DISCLAIMER Disclaimer This presentation has been prepared by the New Zealand Debt Management Office ( NZDMO ) on behalf of the New Zealand Government and is for general information purposes only. By listening to the presentation, or reading the presentation materials, you acknowledge and agree to the contents of this disclaimer. To the maximum extent permitted by law, neither NZDMO nor the New Zealand Government makes any representation, recommendation or warranty, express or implied as to the accuracy, completeness or currency of any of the information in this presentation and accept no responsibility o r liability therefore. Data are indicative and approximate only, and all information is subject to change. This presentation is intended as a snapshot view of New Zealand only, and NZDMO and the New Zealand Government have no obligation, and do not underta ke or accept any responsibility or obligation, to update, expand or correct anything in this presentation or inform you of any matter arising or coming to their notice, after the date of this presentation, which may affect any matter referred to in this presentation. This presentation contains forward-looking statements including information regarding NZDMO s future bond issuances and the New Zealand Government s forecast fiscal and economic performance based on current information, estimates and forecasts. Those statements are subject to risks, uncertainties, and assumptions which are hard to predict or anticipate, and therefore actual outcomes and performance may differ materially from the statements. Any opinions expressed in this presentation reflect th e judgement of NZDMO as the date hereof, and do not bind NZDMO nor the New Zealand Government. This presentation is not a product disclosure statement, disclosure document or other offer document under New Zealand law or any other law. This presentation is not, and does not constitute financial advice. All reasonable care has been taken in relation to the preparation and collation of this presentation. Except for statutory liability which may not be excluded, no person, including NZDMO or any person mentioned in this presentation accepts responsibility for any loss or damage howsoever occurring resulting from the use or reliance on this presentation by any person. Past performance is not indicative of future performance and no guarantee or future rights are implied or given. Nothing in this presentation is an offer to sell, or solicitation of an offer to purchase, any securities. This presentation must not be relied upon by any person for making any investment decision and will not form part of any investment contract. The information provided in this presentation is not investment advice and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs (including financial and taxation issues) of any particular investor. Any p erson considering investing in New Zealand Government securities must refer to any relevant offer documents and disclosures provided expressly in connection with those securities and should take their own independent financial and legal advice on their proposed investment. New Zealand Government securities have not been and will not be registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933 (U.S Securities Act) or the securities laws of any state or other jurisdiction of the United States. New Zealand Government securities may not be offered or sold, directly or indirectly, in the United States or to, or for the account or benefit of, any person in the United States except in transactions exempt from, or not subject to, the registration requirements of the U.S. Securities Act and any other applicable U.S. state securities laws. This presentation may not be copied, distributed, disclosed or used without NZDMO s express written consent. 30