Japan's Economy: Achieving 2 Percent Inflation
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- Tobias Bates
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1 Japan's Economy: Achieving Percent Inflation Speech at a Meeting Held by the Naigai i JoseiChosa Kai (Research Institute of Japan) in Tokyo August, 4 Haruhiko Kuroda Governor of the Bank of Japan Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (as of July 4) Chart Real GDP CPI (all items less fresh food) Excluding the effects of the consumption tax hikes Fiscal 4 Forecasts made in April 4 Fiscal 5 Forecasts made in April Fiscal Forecasts made in April Note: Figures indicate the median of the Policy Board members' forecasts (point estimates). Source: Bank of Japan.
2 Chart Labor Supply and Demand (). s.a., % Unemployment rate s.a., times. 5. Active job openings-toapplicants ratio (right scale) CY Sources: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare; Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications..4 Labor Supply and Demand () Chart Number of regular employees CY Source: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare.
3 Cash Earnings Chart Scheduled cash earnings Non-scheduled cash earnings Special cash earnings (bonuses, etc.) Total cash earnings - CY Note: Q = March-May, Q = June-August, Q = September-November, Q4 = December-February. Source: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. 4 Tankan: DI for Business Conditions Chart 5 4 DI ("favorable" - "unfavorable"), % points All industries and enterprises Forecast made in the March 4 survey "Favorable" - "Unfavorable" CY Source: Bank of Japan. 5
4 Chart Business Fixed Investment 8 s.a., ann., tril. yen Private non-residential investment (GDP-based, real) CY Source: Cabinet Office. Tankan: Business Fixed Investment Plans Chart 7 8 FY4 Large Enterprises FY Average of historical data (FY-) FY Small Enterprises Average of historical data (FY-) FY 4 FY FY FY - FY4 FY - - FY -4 Mar. June Sept. Dec. (Mar.) (June) - Mar. June Sept. Dec. (Mar.) (June) Forecast Actual Forecast Actual result result Note: Figures include land purchasing expenses but exclude software investment. Source: Bank of Japan. 7
5 Tankan: DI for Production Capacity Chart 8-5 Reversed, DI ("excessive" - "insufficient"), % points - All industries and enterprises -5 "Insufficient" Forecast 5 "Excessive" 5 5 CY Source: Bank of Japan. 8 s.a., CY = Real Exports Chart CY Sources: Ministry of Finance; Bank of Japan. 9
6 5 4 - Real GDP Growth Rate 4-7 average: +5.% -7 average: +4.% average: +.% World Economy IMF forecast (Jul-4) CY Projections for Major Economies World.5. Advanced Economies.4. United States.8.9 Euro Area Japan.4.5 Emerging Market and Developing Economies Developing Asia.7. China ASEAN. 5. Latin America and the Caribbean.9. Chart Projections (-.) (.) (-.4) (.).7. (-.) (.). 5.5 (.) (.).. (.) (.) (-.) (-.).4.7 (-.) (-.) (-.) (-.) (-.4) (.).. (5) (-.5) () (-.) Note: Figures in parentheses are the difference from the April 4 WEO. Source: IMF Consumer Prices Chart CPI (all items less fresh food) CY Note: Figures from April 4 onward are calculated to adjust the direct effects of the consumption tax hike. Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.
7 Output Gap 7 % CY Chart Notes:. The output gap is estimated by the Research and Statistics Department, Bank of Japan. For the estimation procedures, see "The New Estimates of Output Gap and Potential Growth Rate," Bank of Japan Review Series, -E-. Notes:. Shaded areas indicate recession periods. Sources: Cabinet Office; Bank of Japan, etc Market Participants (BEI for Inflation-Indexed JGBs) % Old ( years) Old (longest) New ( years) -.5 CY Inflation Expectations ann. avg., % Economists to years ahead (ESP Forecast) 7 to years ahead (ESP Forecast) to years ahead (Consensus Forecasts) Chart. CY Notes:. BEI (break-even inflation) rates are yield spreads between fixed-rate coupon-bearing JGBs and inflation-indexed JGBs. Inflation-indexed JGBs issued since October are designated as "new," while the rest are designated as "old." Figures for "old (longest)" are calculated using yield data for issue No. of the inflation-indexed JGBs, which matures in June 8.. Figures for the ESP Forecast exclude the effects of the consumption tax hikes. Sources: Bloomberg; Consensus Economics Inc.; JCER.
8 Tankan: DI for Change in Output Prices Chart 4 DI ("rise" - "fall"), % points "Rise" All industries and enterprises - "Fall" CY Source: Bank of Japan. 4 Potential Growth Rate Chart Labor hours Number of employed Capital stock Total factor productivity Potential growth rate - - FY Nt Note: The potential ti growth rate is estimated t by the Research and Statistics ti ti Department, t Bank of Japan. For the estimation procedures, see "The New Estimates of Output Gap and Potential Growth Rate," Bank of Japan Review Series, -E-. Figures for the second half of fiscal are those of /Q4. Sources: Cabinet Office; Bank of Japan; Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications; Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare; Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, etc. 5
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