The Bank's Outlook for Economic Activity (Real GDP)
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- Ethelbert McBride
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1 Chart The Bank's Outlook for Economic Activity (Real GDP) FY y/y% chg Actual Median of the Policy Board members' forecasts Maximum of majority forecasts Minimum of majority forecasts Source: Bank of Japan.
2 Chart The Bank's Outlook for Prices (CPI) () Excluding the Effects of the Consumption Tax Hikes FY y/y% chg. Median of the Policy Board members' forecasts Maximum of majority forecasts Minimum of majority forecasts Actual () Including the Effects of the Consumption Tax Hikes FY y/y% chg. Median of the Policy Board members' forecasts Maximum of majority forecasts Minimum of majority forecasts.5.. Actual Source: Bank of Japan.
3 Households' Inflation Expectations over the Next Five Years Chart ann., avg., % 5 - CY Source: Bank of Japan. Chart Estimates of the Output Gap 8 quarterly, % reversed, DI ("excessive" - "insufficient"), % 7 5 Estimate of the output gap, Bank of Japan (left scale) Estimate of the output gap, Cabinet Office (left scale) Tankan composite indicator (right scale) CY Note: For the estimation procedures of the output gap estimated by the Bank of Japan, see "The New Estimates of Output Gap and Potential Growth Rate," Bank of Japan Review Series, -E-. Sources: Cabinet Office; Bank of Japan.
4 ..5. Chart 5 Potential Growth Rate (the Bank's Estimate) Labor hours Number of employed people Capital stock Total factor productivity Potential growth rate FY Sources: Cabinet Office; Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications; Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry; Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare; Bank of Japan. Chart % Decomposition of the Output Gap (the Bank's Estimate) Capital input gap Labor input gap Output gap -7 FY Sources: Cabinet Office; Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications; Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry; Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare; Bank of Japan.
5 Chart 7 Employment Condition DI (Tankan) reversed, DI ("excessive" - "insufficient"), % points All industries Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing "Insufficient" "Excessive" CY 8 Source: Bank of Japan. Unemployment Rate and Structural Unemployment Rate Chart 8 s.a., % 5 Unemployment rate Structural unemployment rate CY Note: The structural unemployment rate is estimated by the Bank of Japan. Sources: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications; Bank of Japan.
6 Chart 9 Hourly Cash Earnings (All Workers) Hourly cash earnings (-quarter backward moving average) - CY Note: "All workers" includes full-time workers and part-time workers. Source: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. Production Capacity DI (Tankan) Chart reversed, DI ("excessive" - "insufficient"), % points All industries Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing "Insufficient" "Excessive" CY Source: Bank of Japan.
7 s.a., CY= Capital Utilization Ratio (Manufacturing) Chart CY Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.
8 Chart Estimated Phillips Curve () Phillips Curve (CPI All Items Less Fresh Food) B /Q A A: 998/Q/Q y =.x +. B: /Q/Q y =.98x output gap (-quarter lead, %) () Phillips Curve (CPI All Items Less Food and Energy) B /Q A: 998/Q/Q y =.5x -. B: /Q/Q y =.x +. A output gap (-quarter lead, %) Note: The output gap is estimated by the Bank of Japan. Sources: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications; Cabinet Office; Bank of Japan.
9 Consumer Price Index Chart () Consumer Price Index (All Items Less Fresh Food) base 5 base base Goods (less agricultural, aquatic & livestock products) General services Agricultural, aquatic & livestock products (less fresh food) - Public services and electricity, manufactured & piped gas & water charges CPI (all items less fresh food) - CY () Goods (Less Agricultural, Aquatic & Livestock Products) 5 base base base Petroleum products Durable goods - Clothes Food products Others Goods - CY () General Services..8. base 5 base base House rent, private & imputed rent Other services -. Food services industry General services -.8 CY Notes:. The items are basically the same as those defined by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. However, electricity, manufactured & piped gas & water charges are excluded from goods. Clothes include shirts, sweaters & underwear.. Alcoholic beverages are excluded from food. Sources: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications; Bank of Japan.
10 Chart Wages and Prices (Changes from the Previous Year) 8 CPI (all items less food and energy, left scale) Hourly cash earnings (-quarter backward moving average, right scale) CY Note: Hourly cash earnings are for "all workers" which includes full-time workers and part-time workers. Sources: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications; Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare.
11 Wages and Prices by Industry (Changes from the Previous Year) Chart 5 Manufacturing Correlation coefficient with the CPI: Monthly cash earnings (full-time workers) Hourly cash earnings (part-time workers) CPI (industrial products) -8 CY 8 Services Correlation coefficient with the CPI: Monthly cash earnings (full-time workers) Hourly cash earnings (part-time workers) CPI (services, less imputed rent) -8 CY 8 Notes:. When examining wage developments, it is useful to separate cash earnings data into those for full-time workers and those for part-time workers, and look at the year-on-year rate of change in monthly cash earnings for full-time workers and that in hourly cash earnings for part-time workers. This is because () this could remove the effects of the decline in average wages caused by the uptrend in the proportion of part-time workers; and () hourly cash earnings better capture wages of part-time workers, whose working hours tend to be unstable.. Owing to data constraints and for simplicity the figures for "wholesale and retail trade" are used as a proxy for the services sector, from the "Monthly Labour Survey," published by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. Sources: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications; Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare.
12 Chart Wages and Prices by Industry (Level) 5 CY= Manufacturing Monthly cash earnings (full-time workers) Hourly cash earnings (part-time workers) CPI (industrial products) CY 8 5 CY= Services Monthly cash earnings (full-time workers) 5 Hourly cash earnings (part-time workers) CPI (services, less imputed rent) 95 9 CY 8 Sources: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications; Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare.
13 Estimated Phillips Curve (Based on the Unemployment Rate and Hourly Cash Earnings) hourly cash earnings,, -quarter backward moving average Chart 7 A B A: 998/Q/Q y =.x B: /Q/Q y = -.79x unemployment rate, s.a., % Sources: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications; Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare; Bank of Japan. Firms' Inflation Expectations () Outlook for General Prices year ahead years ahead 5 years ahead All firms Large firms... Small firms Chart 8 () Outlook for Sales Prices Source: Bank of Japan. year ahead years ahead 5 years ahead All firms..8. Large firms...7 Small firms.5..9 (Note) All firms year ahead % chg. relative to the current level to years ahead to 5 years ahead..7.
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