Aggregate Output Prices Households Business Government Taxation External Sector Labour Market...

Transcription

1 March

2 Contents Aggregate Output... Prices... Households... Business... Government... Taxation... External Sector... 9 Labour Market... Housing Market... Financial Market... Indicators of Productive Capacity... Balance Sheet... Sectoral Saving... Ratios to GDP... Miscellaneous... International... Abbreviations... 9 Data finalised 9 March New Zealand Economic Chart Pack March Page

3 Aggregate Output Production GDP Growth Production GDP per Capita Growth Quarterly % change (s.a.) Quarterly % change (s.a.) Tradable & Non-tradable Activity Index (Mar 99Q=) Index (Mar 99Q=) Nominal GDP Growth Direct tradable sector Direct non-tradable sector Indirect tradable sector Indirect non-tradable sector Quarterly % change (s.a.) Components of Production GDP Components of Expenditure GDP December quarter. December quarter. Agriculture, Fishing and Forestry Mining Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Manufacturing Construction Wholesale, Retail and Accomodation Other services Unallocated/balancing Item Production GDP % pt contribution Sources: Statistics New Zealand, The Treasury Private Consumption Public Consumption Residential Investment Business Investment Exports of Goods and Services Imports of Goods and Services Change in inventories Balancing Item Expenditure GDP % pt contribution Sources: Statistics New Zealand, The Treasury New Zealand Economic Chart Pack March Page

4 Prices Consumers Price Index CPI Components Quarterly % change Tradable inflation Non-tradable inflation CPI Inflation & Pricing intentions Net % Inflation Expectations ANZBO - pricing intentions CPI inflation (RHS) QSBO - average selling price RBNZ survey of expectations - one year ahead ANZBO - inflation expectations Sources: Statistics New Zealand, ANZ, NZIER GDP Deflator Sources: RBNZ, ANZ, The Treasury Consumption Deflator Quarterly % change Quarterly % change New Zealand Economic Chart Pack March Page

5 Households Real Private Consumption Growth Real Core Retail Sales Growth Quarterly % change Quarterly % change Nominal Retail Sales & Gross Earnings Growth Car Registrations s per month s per month Core retail sales Total weekly gross earnings Total registrations New cars Previously registered overseas International Travel s per month (s.a.) s per month (s.a.) Short term New Zealand resident departures Short term overseas visitor arrivals Consumer Confidence Index Index Westpac Mcdermott Miller ANZ-Roy Morgan Sources: Westpac McDermott Miller, ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Economic Chart Pack March Page

6 Business Real Business Investment Growth Quarterly % change (s.a.) Investment & Business Profitability Net % Real business investment Profitability (RHS, advanced qtrs) Sources: Statistics New Zealand, NZIER Firms Own Activity Outlook Net % Net % Net Operating Surplus & Company Tax Net Operating Surplus Sources: The Treasury, Statistics New Zealand, Inland Revenue Department Non-Residential Buildings - - General Business Confidence Company Tax (RHS) Real non-residential building investment Value of non-residential consents Net % Net % QSBO ANZBO QSBO ANZBO Sources: NZIER, ANZ Sources: NZIER, ANZ New Zealand Economic Chart Pack March Page

7 Government Real Public Consumption Growth (ex-military) Nominal Public Sector Wage Growth Quarterly % change (s.a.) Quarterly % Change (s.a.) Annual % Change Government Debt to GDP Ratio (June years) Tax to GDP Ratio Gross sovereign-issued debt Source: The Treasury Net core Crown debt Source: The Treasury Total tax revenue ( quarter moving average) Fiscal Balance (June years) Implied Company & Personal Income Tax Ratio Operating balance OBEGAL * Company tax has been lagged by quarters Company tax to corporate profit * Source deductions to compensation of employees ratio Source: The Treasury Sources: Statistics New Zealand, The Treasury New Zealand Economic Chart Pack March Page

8 Taxation Total Tax Receipts & Nominal GDP Source Deductions & Compensation of Employees Total tax receipts Nominal GDP Source deductions Compensation of employees Sources: The Treasury, Statistics New Zealand Corporate Tax & Nominal GDP Sources: The Treasury, Statistics New Zealand Total GST & Nominal Consumption Corporate tax Nominal GDP (RHS) GST Nominal private and public consumption Sources: The Treasury, Statistics New Zealand Resident Withholding Tax on Interest Quarterly resident withholding tax receipts 9 day bank bill yield (advanced qtrs) Sources: The Treasury, RBNZ Sources: The Treasury, Statistics New Zealand Customs GST & Nominal Goods Imports Customs GST Nominal goods imports Sources: The Treasury, Statistics New Zealand New Zealand Economic Chart Pack March Page

9 External Sector SNA Export Growth Current Account quarter running total Goods & services export values Goods & services export volumes Composition of Export Volume Growth Goods balance Income balances - - Services balance Current account balance SNA Import Growth OTI Terms of Trade Goods & services import values Goods & services import volumes Index (June =) Index (June =),,,,,,, Terms of Trade Import prices Export prices Composition of Import Volume Growth (ex-military) ,,,,, Primary goods Other goods Manufacturing goods Services Capital goods Consumption goods Intermediate goods Services New Zealand Economic Chart Pack March Page 9

10 Labour Market Unemployment & Participation Rate % (s.a.) % (s.a.) Employment & Labour Force Growth Unemployment rate Participation rate (RHS inverse) Employment Growth Labour Force Growth Labour Productivity (GDP divided by hours worked) Quarterly % change (s.a.), The Treasury Employment Intentions Net % Net % QSBO ANZBO Source: NZIER, ANZ International Migration s per month (s.a.) Wage Growth Net permanent & long-term migration Permanent & long-term arrivals Permanent & long-term departures s per month (s.a.) LCI salary & wage rates (non-adjusted) QES - average hourly earnings LCI salary & wage rates (quality-adjusted) New Zealand Economic Chart Pack March Page

11 Housing Market Real Residential Investment Growth House Prices Quarterly % change (s.a.) REINZ - house price index QV house price index Source: REINZ, QV House Sales & Building Consents s per month (s.a.) , REINZ Affordability (based on REINZ median house price), RBNZ, REINZ, The Treasury REINZ - dwelling sales Building consents - dwellings (RHS) s per month (s.a.). % of gross household income x gross annual household income. * Based on yr fixed rate & % deposit on median house price 99 9 Average mortgage payment (including principal) * Median house price to income (RHS) House Sales & Days to Sell s per month (s.a.) Days (s.a.) Source: REINZ REINZ - dwelling sales REINZ - median days to sell (RHS inverse) Migration & House Prices Annual net migration (s) Net permanent & long term migration REINZ house price index (RHS), REINZ New Zealand Economic Chart Pack March Page

12 Financial Market Wholesale Interest Rates Retail Mortgage Rates Official cash rate (OCR) 9 day bank bill yield year government bond yield Source: RBNZ Trade-Weighted Exchange Rate Index Index Index TWI Source: RBNZ First mortgage floating rate First mortgage year fixed rate Source: RBNZ Equity Market Indices Index (Jan 99=) Index (Jan 99=) NZ (NZX index) UK (FTSE ) US (S&P ) Australia (All Ordinaries) Japan (Nikkei) Germany (DAX ) Source: Haver Analytics Long-Term Interest Rate Differentials Exchange Rates Basis points Basis points NZD/USD.9 NZD/AUD New Zealand/United States New Zealand/Australia NZD / USD NZD / AUD (RHS) Source: RBNZ, Haver Analytics Source: RBNZ New Zealand Economic Chart Pack March Page

13 Indicators of Productive Capacity Output Gap Capacity Utilisation HP filter Kalman filter MV filter Small macro model Economy wide Manufacturers Builders Source: The Treasury Capacity Utilisation 9 9 Source: NZIER Demand Pressures Exporters Non-exporters Sales as a limiting factor Source: NZIER Resource Pressures Source: NZIER Difficulty Finding Labour Net % % (s.a.) Less difficult More difficult Labour as a limiting factor Finance as a limiting factor Capacity as a limiting factor Difficulty finding skilled labour Unemployment rate (RHS) Difficulty finding unskilled labour Source: NZIER, NZIER New Zealand Economic Chart Pack March Page

14 Balance Sheet Household Debt to Asset Ratios 99 9 Household Debt & Servicing of disposable income Housing loan to value ratio Total debt to asset ratio Other debt to financial assets ratio Household debt (RHS) Debt servicing (% of disposable income) Effective interest rate Source: RBNZ, The Treasury Source: RBNZ, The Treasury Household Assets & Liabilities % of disposable income % of disposable income,, Household Equity % of disposable income % of disposable income,, Housing assets Financial assets Financial liabilities Net worth Housing equity Net worth Financial equity Source: RBNZ, The Treasury Source: RBNZ, The Treasury Net Foreign Assets Figures prior to June qtr - -9 interpolated from annual series Credit Growth Net international investment position (NIIP) NIIP excluding earthquake-related reinsurance assets Total Agriculture Households Business, The Treasury Source: RBNZ New Zealand Economic Chart Pack March Page

15 Sectoral Saving Net Household Saving (March years) Net household saving, The Treasury Net General Government Saving (March years) Net public saving, The Treasury Gross Saving & Investment Flows quarter running total Gross national saving Gross Investment Current account balance Net Business Saving (March years) Net business saving Source: The Treasury Net National Saving (March years) Net national saving, The Treasury Net Household Saving % of disposable income % of disposable income Net household saving, The Treasury New Zealand Economic Chart Pack March Page

16 Ratios to GDP Private Consumption Public Consumption Nominal Real Nominal Real Residential Investment Other Investment Nominal Real Nominal Real Nominal Imports & Exports Real Imports & Exports Exports Imports Exports Imports New Zealand Economic Chart Pack March Page

17 Miscellaneous Soil Moisture Deficit Southern Oscillation Index Index - La Nina Index - - El Nino Southern Oscillation Index Source: NIWA Electricity Generation GWh Source: Electricity Authority Trading Partner Growth - Hydro electricity generation Thermal electricity generation Source: IMF, Consensus Economics GWh Forecast Source: Electricity Price $/MWh Source: WITS Free To Air Purchasing Managers Indices Index Source: Haver Analytics Average monthly electricity price 9 UK Japan US China Euro Area Aus $/MWh Index New Zealand Economic Chart Pack March Page

18 International Real GDP Growth Australia United States Japan United Kingdom Euro area New Zealand, Haver Analytics CPI Inflation -, Haver Analytics Australia United States Japan United Kingdom Euro area New Zealand - - Official Interest Rates As at //. Short-term Interest Rates New Zealand Australia Canada United Kingdom United States Japan Euro Area % Source: RBNZ, Haver Analytics Unemployment Rate % (s.a.) % (s.a.) Australia United States Japan United Kingdom Euro area New Zealand Source: RBNZ, Haver Analytics Current Account Australia United States Japan United Kingdom Euro area New Zealand, Haver Analytics Australia United States Japan United Kingdom Euro area New Zealand, Haver Analytics New Zealand Economic Chart Pack March Page

19 Abbreviations CPI GDP LCI ANZBO NZIER OBEGAL OTI QES QSBO QV RBNZ REINZ S.A. SNA Consumers Price Index Gross Domestic Product Labour Cost Index ANZ Business Outlook New Zealand Institute of Economic Research Operating Balance before Gains and Losses Overseas Trade Index Quarterly Employment Survey Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion Quotable Value Ltd Reserve Bank of New Zealand Real Estate Institute of New Zealand Seasonally Adjusted System of National Accounts New Zealand Economic Chart Pack March Page 9