UBS Nordic Financial Services Conference Stockholm

Transcription

1 Annika Falkengren President and CEO UBS Nordic Financial Services Conference Stockholm 10 September

2 The starting point: SEB has a strong competitive position A long-term relationship bank How we got here: SEB s strategy 2006 Multi-disciplined focused strategic direction to stay ahead of the curve Where we are going: thoughts in post-crisis financial landscape While regulatory clouds remain, structural long-term trends are still valid 2

3 SEB A relationship bank Strong customer base Large companies 1,800 Financial institutions 700 SMEs Product excellence #1 Cash management globally #1 Scandinavian currencies globally #1Nordic stock broker #1Nordic and Baltic investment bank #1 Custody Nordics and Baltics #2 Nordic asset management #1 SME offering Sweden 400,000 Private individuals 5 million 3

4 Resilient income generation 12-month rolling earnings generation excluding one-off effects SEK bn Q1-05 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-06 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-07 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-08 Operating income Profit before credit losses and goodwill Operating profit Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-09 Q2 Diversified income generation SEK m 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Net interest income Non-interest income * Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q %* H vs. H *Income adjusted for capital gains 4

5 Long-term financial stability Liquidity profile 12 months matched funding Strong capital position Tier 1 capital ratio 13.1% Reserve ratio 72% 5

6 Proactive management in CEE Actions Gradual tightening of credit and portfolio policies requirements since Q Accelerated collective provisions Substantial work-out resources Review of all loans > 1m completed Separate division Non performing loans % of lending 30% 20% 10% 0% Estonia Latvia Lithuania Ukraine Lending (SEK bn) Provisioning to build-up Baltic reserves SEK m 2,000 1,500 1,000 Portfolio assessed, past due > 60 days Individually assessed Specific Collective 65% collective provisions Full goodwill write-off Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 6

7 Stable asset quality outside CEE Distribution of credit provisions Level of Impaired Loans Distribution of SEK 5,953m within SEB Group CEE 22% 78% Outside CEE 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Dec '06 Mar '07 NPL 0.6% Jun Sep Dec Mar '08 Jun Sep Dec Mar '09 Jun Germany Nordics % of total exposure 3%* Shipping & Offshore Limited exposure to Bulk and Container sub-segments 3%* SMEs Sweden Bankruptcies increasing (from a low base) 1%* Acq. Finance Well diversified with 95% senior debt 7%* Commercial Real Estate* Mainly related to large real estate companies * Excluding Baltic exposures 7

8 The starting point: SEB has a strong competitive position A long-term relationship bank How we got here: SEB s strategy 2006 Multi-disciplined focused strategic direction to stay ahead of the curve Where we are going: thoughts in post-crisis financial landscape While regulatory clouds remain, structural long-term trends are still valid 8

9 SEB strategy initiated at Capital Markets Day in December 2006 Strategic direction exploit strong franchise in an attractive region Improve customer focus Integrate acquired businesses Roll-out operational excellence Strengthen the balance sheet for worse times 9

10 A strong large corporate franchise Nordic target market Core banking relationships % Large corporates Nordics Perceived quality* Large corporates Sweden Strong growth in core markets Income Nordic top 50 (public companies) +79% +33% H1 08 H1 09 Sweden Other Nordic * Relative to peer group 10

11 Customer growth strategy cont. Grow revenues with existing customers through high interaction and increased share of wallet Private Banking Net sales SEK bn Life Total sales SEK bn Q Q3 Q Q3 Q Q3 Q Q Q3 Q Q3 Q Q3 Q No of corporate customers Thousands Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Number of cards SEB Kort Millions Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 11

12 Efficiency and productivity Exploiting cost synergies from increased integration while developing continuous productivity enhancements through SEB Way FTE development SEB Group, Thousands CEE Non-CEE 19,3 21,6 20,4 Dec 06 Jun 08 Jun 09 Group Operations No. of transaction, SEK millions Q1 07 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 08 Cost/transaction -6% y-o-y Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Efficiency and productivity gains offset inflation on a comparable basis Total cost base reported Excluding pensions, redundancies, CEE goodwill impairment and FX effect Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Rolling 12 m costs in Q up SEK 0.3bn or 6% vs. FY

13 Financial strategy Establish and maintain a strong capital and liquidity position Core capital SEKbn Hybrid capital "Book equity" Dec 2006 Core Jun 2009 capital ratio 8.2% 11.3% Long-term funding (>1 year) SEKbn H1 08 H2 08 H1 09 Q3 09 >12 months matched funding 13

14 The starting point: SEB has a strong competitive position A long-term relationship bank How we got here: SEB s strategy 2006 Multi-disciplined focused strategic direction to stay ahead of the curve Where we are going: thoughts in post-crisis financial landscape While regulatory clouds remain, structural long-term trends are still valid 14

15 The big unknown: A new financial landscape Still limited visibility and no level playing field Capital requirements? Liquidity regimes? Regulatory environment? Government ownership? 15

16 Capturing structural growth trends Wholesale banking Creating demand for: Advisory services, investment banking, new asset classes SEB is: Exploiting being the #1 Nordic Merchant Bank Demographics Emerging markets Asset management, pension products Local financial services, int l support for our clients Expanding the asset management and life insurance franchise Renewed longterm growth in the Baltic region 16

17 Wholesale banking going forward Restricted capital leads banks to a more selective choice of relationships + = Business selected clients Credits tight conditions Bank relationship a closer tie 17

18 Rightly positioned to leverage recovery of savings markets Mutual Funds Net Sales Sweden Cumulative Jan 2005 Jun 2009, including PPM SEK m SEB SHB Robur Nordea jan-05 jan-06 jan-07 Jan-08 jan-09 Assets under Management June 30, 2009, SEK bn Nordea SEB Sw edbank Danske Bank DnB NOR Handelsbanken 224 Source: Morgan Stanley Market shares Gross premium income, unit-linked insurance %, Q * Q ** Full year 2008 Sweden* Denmark** Estonia Latvia Lithuania SEB Market share 28 Competitors SEB Rank

19 Long-term potential in the Baltics remains 31 Dec 2008 GDP/Capita SEK thousand Economic sentiment may have turned Index Estonia Latvia Lithuania Euro-zone 0 Oct-95 Oct-97 Oct-99 Oct-01 Oct-03 Oct-05 Oct-07 Oct-09 Lending/GDP Per cent Baltics Sweden Current account deficts have been restored Percent of GDP 5 Estonia Lithuania Latvia Mar- 01 Mar- 02 Mar- 03 Mar- 04 Mar- 05 Mar- 06 Mar- 07 Mar- 08 Mar

20 The tipping point is getting closer? Strong capitalisation Tier 1 capital ratio (Q2 2009, %) Baltic credit losses 11,3 13,1 12,6 12,2 11,2 9,6 Swedbank SEB SHB Danske Bank Nordea DnB NOR Opportunities in core markets Nordics late into the cycle? Economic cycle

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