Investor presentation. Result presentation

Transcription

1 Investor presentation Result presentation 21

2 Highlights Income Solid results given present macroeconomic climate Lower provisioning for credit losses and no new NPL formation Provisions for credit losses Nordic growth plan initiated 2

3 Profit and loss trend Profit and loss development Q1-8 Q1-1 (SEK bn) Q1-1 Q1-1 Q1-1 Income Operating expenses Netcreditlosses Operating profit (SEK bn) Q1-8 Q2-8 Q3-8 Q4-8 Q1-9 Q2-9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q1-1 3

4 Income statement Q1 21 Profit and loss (SEK m) Q1-1 Q4-9 % Q1-9 % Total operating income 9,372 9, ,43-18 Total operating expenses -6,367-6, ,65-4 Profit bef credit losses & GW 3,5 3, ,78-37 Goodwill Profit before credit losses 3,5 3, , Net credit losses etc -1,93-3, , Operating profit 1, ,82-4 Operating income by type, Q1 vs. Q4 (SEK bn) +5% -1% % -6% Q4-9 Q1-1 Q4-9 Q1-1 Q4-9 Q1-1 Q4-9 Q1-1 Net interest Net fees and Net financial Net life insurance income commissions income income 41% 9% 9% 1% 37% 4

5 Net interest income development NII (SEK bn) Q1-8 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-9 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-1 NII by income type (SEK bn) Q1-8 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-9 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-1 Q1-8 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-9 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-1 Q1-8 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-9 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-1 Lending Deposits Funding & other 5

6 Net interest income analysis SEB Group, SEK m Q1 21 vs. Q4 29 Q1 21 vs. Q1 29 Q4 29 3,697 Q1 29 5,94 Lending margin -57 Lending margin 26 Lending volume -2 Lending volume -247 Deposit margin -99 Deposit margin -571 Deposit volume -21 Deposit volume -14 Funding & other 375 Funding & other -1,313 Q1 21 3,875 Q1 21 3,875 6

7 Commission income development Gross fee and commission Q1 vs. Q4 (SEK bn) Q4-9 Q % % 1.9 Nordic ECM markets Deal value, EUR bn Number of Deals Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 Q19 Q11-63%.5.7-8%.6 Source: Dealogic Card turnover (SEK bn) New issues & advisory Secondary market & derivatives Custody & mutual funds Payment, cards, lending, deposits, guarantees 3 2 Q1-4 Q1-5 Q1-6 Q1-7 Q1-8 Q1-9 Q1-1 7

8 Robust TCM income Low Risk Trading Orientation TCM income split, excluding investment portfolio FX Capital Markets 8% 11% 7% 22% 15% 5% 3% 11% 44% 46% 59% 26% 28% 33% 44% Equities SD and Other TCM 8% 6% 45% 38% 41% 6% 8% 5% 36% -2% 12% 46% 44% 3% 8% -3% 21% 3% 6% 34% 19% 7% 6% 21% 34% 22% 24% 28% 22% 3% 63% 3% 46% 34% 38% 41% 36% Q1-7 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-8 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-9 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-1 Low risk trading orientation Daily trading income 27 1Q negative out of 811 trading days. Average loss SEK 15m Jan-7 Apr-7 Jul-7 Oct-7 Jan-8 Mar-8 Jun-8 Sep-8 Dec-8 Mar-9 Jun-9 Sep-9 Dec-9 Mar-1 * Excluding Investment Portfolio 8

9 Net life income Net Changing Net assets mix Unit Unit Link Link % Unit-linked equity allocation, Swe 25% 5% Q1-9 Q1-1 Growing volumes AuM Unit Link, SEK bn Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 1 Net Life Insurance Income, Q1 7 Q1 1, SEK m Income excl. guarantees Nya Liv Potential guarantees Nya Liv Q1 7 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 8 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 9 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 1 9

10 Cost development Cost distribution (SEK bn) No of FTEs IT & admin 3.9 Staff costs 2,656 2,43 19,912 19,562 19,32 Q1-9 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-1 Staff costs (SEK bn) Q1-9 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-1 IT & admin costs (SEK bn) Goodwill impairment Q1-9 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-1 1

11 Divisional performance Operating profit Q1-1 vs. Q4-9 (SEK m) 2,492 2,66 RoE Sweden: 15% Germany: Neg Cards: 24% Merchant Banking Retail Banking Wealth Management Life Baltic -1,25 Q4-9 Q1-1 -2,391 RoE Q1-1 21% 7% 2% 35% Neg. 11

12 Customers in focus Private and SME customers Private 3, customers joining Enkla vardagen New savings account with 1.5% interest rate Stable market share in a growing Swedish mortgage market Life: +5% in new sales "Best private banking in Sweden 35 new private banking clients Q1 Solution oriented products Highest net inflow of Equity & bonds funds Increasing market share SMEs Assisting more than 4, SMEs groupwide SEK 76bn in lending (+6%) 12

13 Customers in focus Large corporates and institutional clients Institutions Corporates Market share leader Nordic stock exchanges Customer base +1% in Nordics outside Sweden #1 in Nordic M&A (5% market share) Assets under Custody +SEK 3bn in Q1. Back to 27 levels Strong net sales within Wealth: SEK 14bn & #1 FX House in the Nordic region Best Nordic bank for cash management and bank liquidity management #1 Equity House in the Nordics Lead Manager Green Bond, World Bank Best Sub Custodian Nordics & Baltics 13

14 Nordic corporate banking expansion Norway #1 position in equities, FX and corporate finance Top three position in corporate banking Enhance the strong corporate banking position further Goals of Nordic expansion Gain new large and mid corporate clients Improve corporate banking franchise by leveraging strong existing platform Sweden The #1 wholesale bank Maintain the leading position, further build on client relationships Create regional corporate hubs Finland #1 position in equities #2 in corporate banking Strong investment banking franchise Go from supplier of advanced products to long-term core relationship bank Denmark #1 position in equities Improved position as top 3 in corporate banking and corporate finance Further strengthen corporate banking position 14

15 Development of credit portfolio Asset Quality Credit exposure (SEK bn) Sector Q4 Corporates -1.5% Households -.4% Banks -18.1% Property mgmt -1.2% 1 Public admin -5.3%

16 Credit portfolio* On & off balance, SEK bn Mar '1 (Dec '9) Swedish Nordic Other** German Baltic Total Corporates 319 (322) 159 (163) 19 (13) 59 (68) 646 (656) Property Management 117 (114) 22 (21) 79 (84) 26 (28) 244 (247) Households 314 (36) 45 (46) 92 (97) 56 (6) 57 (59) Public Administration 2 (23) 1 (1) 64 (65) 5 (5) 9 (95) Total non-banks 77 (765) 227 (231) 344 (35) 146 (16) (1 57) -1.3% Banks 144 (176) 47 (54) 62 (79) 1 (1) 254 (31) Total 914 (941) 274 (285) 45 (429) 148 (162) (1 816) * Based on SEB's operations **Including other -2.9% -3.9% -5.6% -8.6% -4.1% 16

17 Development of NPLs SEK bn Non-performing loans Individually assessed Portfolio assessed 13.3% of lending % of lending 1.1% of lending 26.4% of lending 2 Q1 9 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 1 Q1 9 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 1 Q1 9 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 1 Q1 9 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 1 Nordic Germany Baltics Ukraine & Russia 17

18 Swedish asset quality Private Loan-to-value Share of portfolio Corporate Credit exposure >8% 4% 51-8% 21% Baltic Other Germany Sweden -5% 75% Other Nordic 8bps loss rate Swedish household interest payments (as % of disposable income) Source: National statistical office, Riksbank, SEB Swedish bankruptcy rate (number of bankruptcies per month) 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Source: Datastream 18

19 Baltic lending to the public* EUR bn Lending to the public Credit loss reserves Q1 27 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 28 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 29 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 21 Lending to the public, SEK bn * Excluding reclassified bonds 19

20 Baltic net credit losses by quarter By type, SEK m Q1 '9 Q2 '9 Q3 '9 Q4 '9 Q1 '1 2,381 1,716 1,923 1, Collective Provisions Specific Provisions Net Write-offs Reserve ratio 73% (65% in Q4) 2

21 Capital ratios and RWA Capital adequacy Total capital ratio, % Tier I capital ratio, % Core Tier I Risk-weighted assets SEK bn Dec Migration 3 Op Risk 1 Market risk Dec 29 Mar 21 SEK bn Capital base Mar 21 Other 723 FX effects RWA

22 Net liquidity position and funding SEB s matched funding horizon Months Funding raised, maturity > 1 year SEK bn Instrument 28 Q1 29 Q2 29 Q3 29 Q4 29 Q1 21 Yankee CD Senior unsec. Ger Senior unsec. Swe Structured bonds Covered bonds Ger Covered bonds Swe Hybrid tier Q1 8 Q3 8 Q1 9 Q3 9 Q1 1 Total

23 Sweden: A surprising labour market Improved exports ahead Major potential for consumer upturn Unemployment will peak around mid-21 Core inflation will decline Riksbank will hike repo rate in July Fiscal expansion regardless of election outcome Year-on-year percentage change GDP and Economic tendency indicator GDP (LHS) Sources: Statistics Sweden, NIER Index Economic tendency indicator (RHS) 23

24 Baltic macro situation signs of recovery Sharp falls in Baltic GDP, also in historic comparison YoY % change 15 Estonia Latvia Lithuania Gradual recovery in 21; exports have rebounded YoY % change Estonia Latvia Lithuania Comments Recession ending in Estonia and Lithuania Continued budget tightening including wage cuts in 21 Growing unemployment but peaking now in Estonia Continued bail-out loans to Latvia but less need Pegs will survive Estonia is expected to adopt euro 211 as planned Unemployment is up Per cent of total labour force 2 Estonia Latvia Lithuania

25 Macro forecasts per country SEB Forecasts GDP (%) Inflation (%) F 211F F 211F Denmark* Finland* Norway Sweden Germany* Euro zone* Estonia* Latvia* Lithuania* Russia Ukraine Negative revisions Positive revisions Sources: National statistical agencies, SEB Economic Research * Harmonised consumer price index 25

26 Strong asset quality trends Investments in strong corporate franchise Positioned for new regulatory environment 26

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