Investor presentation. Results 2009

Transcription

1 Investor presentation Results

2 Highlights 2009 Strong underlying business SEK 4.8bn before provisions for credit losses and impairment charges Stable cost development Doubled collective provisions in the Baltic countries Full goodwill write-off in Ukraine Strong capital position after successful rights issue Participation in Swedish Funding Guarantee Programme Operating profit (SEKbn) Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2 Q3 Q4 Profit before gains and credit losses Credit losses Goodwill impairment 09 2

3 Continued high operating income Strong net interest income Lower commission income Robust net financial income; M-t-M valuation losses of SEK 0.4bn Re-bounce of life insurance income FX translation effects SEK +0.7bn 09 vs. Operating income SEK bn Income Excluding one-offs and portfolio losses Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2 Q3 Q4 09 3

4 Income well diversified Net interest income +40% Net fee and Net financial income commission income -15% (excl MTM portfolios) SEKm and change +112% 09 vs. Q4 09 Total NII growth 1, % % Volume Growth % % Margin Development Other 1,110 Advisory and brokerage Value based Base services Other FX Capital markets, equities, portfolios, etc. 4

5 Lower interest rates boost Net interest income Net interest income +40% Big impact from falling short-term interest rates Total NII growth 1,680 Drop in quarterly average +12% overnight interest rates SEK EUR USD -25% Volume Growth % -2.8% -3.2% Margin Development Other 20 1, vs 09 vs Q4 Portfolios etc +1, Book equity Net 1,

6 Income well diversified Net interest income +40% Net fee and Net financial income commission income -15% (excl MTM portfolios) SEKm and change +112% 09 vs. Q4 09 Total NII growth 1, % % Volume Growth % % Margin Development Other 1,110 Advisory and brokerage Value based Base services Other FX Capital markets, equities, portfolios, etc. 6

7 Underlying costs levels under control Cost management program Achieved by 2009 Target by Q * SEK 1,304m SEK 1,500 2,000m 500 net FTE reduction FTEs by Unchanged operating expenses on comparable basis SEKm Change 2009 vs ,027 Business related Market related ,067 6, ,244 Cost efficiency Inflation, Redundancies Pensions FX translation Goodwill acquisitions impairment etc. 7

8 Merchant Banking strengthening its position GTS Corporate Banking TCM SEKm 6,000 3,000 Nordic target market 100 Core banking relationships % Large corporates Nordics Large corporates Sweden Income Profit before credit losses NB. MTM portfolio losses SEK 0.4bn lower in Perceived quality

9 Strengthened franchise in Merchant Banking Market shares, Nordic stock markets Jan March, 2009, per cent SEB Enskilda 9,5% Supporting clients exports Trade finance portfolio volumes, indexed % SHB 5.7% Morgan Stanley 4.5% Deutsche Bank 4.3% Credit Suisse 4.2%

10 Merchant Banking Investment portfolio Volume reduction partly offset by FX Volume FX adjusted* FX Reported Structured credits Financial institutions Covered bonds etc Mark-to-market loss SEK m Q4 09 P/L Equity -1, , The unrealised valuation loss on 20 reclassified securities in the quarter was SEK 3,5m. Rating status of Structured credits 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 88.5% - Q2- Q3- Q % 3.8% 3.0% 2.1% AAA AA/A BBB BB/B CCC/CC Rating actions on 31 out of 615 positions during this quarter No impaired assets No level 3 assets * Using FX rates as of 31 March 20 10

11 Germany potential and challenges Operating profit (SEKm) Operating profit 2009 (SEKm) M B % Treasury Customer Business R E T A I L Further steps to separate Retail from Merchant Banking and Asset Management have been formalised Attractive corporate growth segment for SEB Stable asset quality 11

12 Retail Banking income holding up SEK m 5,000 Germany Lithuania Latvia Estonia Card Sweden Lending volumes in local currency % change, 2009 vs 20 9 % Since yearend -5% Swedish Retail +9% 5 % 2,000 Swedish Retail +20% -1, Income Profit before credit losses -5 % -3 % -3 % Sweden Estonia Latvia Lithuania Germany 12

13 SEB in Sweden Positive volume development Corporate lending * Sweden, SEK bn Mortgage lending Sweden, SEK bn Deposits from public Sweden, SEK bn Q2 Q3 Q4 Net Sales 12 months Sweden: Q2 Q3 Q4 + SEK 84bn 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2 Q3 Q4 + SEK 23bn Wealth management SEK 40bn 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Life SEK 29bn Q2 Q3 Q4 + SEK 25bn 09 * Excluding reclassified bonds 13

14 Strong capital situation Capital ratios, Basel II without floors Per cent Core Tier 1 ratio Tier 1 ratio 15% Risk-weighted assets SEK bn Q % Long-term Basel II Tier 1 target Migration FX % 12 8 Required minimum Tier 1 in order to qualify for Swedish stabilisation measures is 4% Other Extended IRB rollouts 0% 14

15 Buffering up for Baltic challenges Provisions for Net Credit Losses % of 2009, SEB Group SEK 2,386m Q4 20* 2009* Estonia 0,76 1,73 Latvia 2,86 6,41 Lithuania 3,33 3,59 Baltics 2,59 3,70 Baltic countries Impaired loans, gross % of credit exposure excl. banks 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Estonia Latvia Lithuania Dec ' Mar ' Jun ' Sep ' Dec ' Mar '09 *Annualised figures 71% 29% Nordics, Germany, etc. Provisioning to build-up reserves SEK m 1,200 1, Specific Collective Q4- - Q2- Q3- Q

16 Conservative provisioning policy Gross level of Impaired loans Individually assessed, per cent of lending Group Baltics Q4 09 Reserve ratios* % Q4 09 Group 76.9% 68.5% 71.6% Baltics 139.9% 59.6% 69.3% excluding homogeneous groups 16

17 Sharp economic deterioration in Ukraine Dramatically changed economic environment since acquisition in 2004 and 20 No expansion plan Full goodwill write-off SEK 594m GDP forecast 12 Initial and revised GDP forecast Lending SEK 2.7bn Customers 105,000 # of branches 100 Employees 1, op profit SEK -153m 17

18 Merchant Banking Private equity and Shipping/Offshore Private Equity (Acquisition Finance) Outstanding volumes, SEKbn Equity & mezzanine Senior debt ,1 17, ,7 24,0 FY 2006 FY 20 FY * Effect of weaker Swedish krona FX effect 0.6bn* Shipping and Offshore Finance Credit exposure, SEKbn FX effect 7.5bn* FY 2006 FY 20 FY * * Guaranteed by Export Credit Agencies Other Ferries RoRo Cruise Container Bulk LNG Gas Carrier Car Carriers Tanker Cruise** Yard (Cruise) Offshore 18

19 Property management SEK bn Lending SEKbn Commercial Multi-family FY FY FY * By obligor s domicile 'Mar 2009 Other 4 Germany 29 Sweden 52 SWEDEN GERMANY BALTICS Commercial property sector SEK 44bn Offices Retail Hotels Logistics/warehouse and other Residential SEK 47bn Offices Retail Hotels Logistics/warehouse and other Residential SEK 28bn Offices Retail Warehouse & Industrial Residential Land plots Other 16% 3% 23% 17% 22% 29% 9% 7% 15% 2% 11% 49% 26% 28% 18% Other Nordic amounts to SEK 16bn, Other SEK 8bn 25% 19

20 Stable asset quality outside CEE Level of Impaired Loans* Level of net credit losses* 3,0% SEB Group Nordic Germany Baltic 4,00 Germany Nordics Baltics SEB Group 2,5% 2,0% 3,50 3,00 2,50 1,5% 2,00 1,0% 1,50 0,5% 1,00 0,50 0,0% Dec '06 Mar ' Jun ' Sep ' Dec ' Mar ' Jun ' Sep ' Dec ' Mar '09 0, Mar '2009 * % of Credit Exposure excluding Banks *Annualised figures 20

21 Resilient income generation first line of defence 12-month rolling earnings generation excluding one-off effects SEKm Operating income Profit before credit losses and goodwill Operating profit -05 Q2-05 Q3-05 Q Q2-06 Q3-06 Q Q2- Q3- Q4- - Q2- Q3- Q Profit before credit losses Merchant SEK bn 3,3 Retail SEK bn Wealth SEK bn Life SEK bn 1,0 1,6 1,3 0,5 0,2 0,3 0,

22 Support revenue generation focus on core clients key competitive advantages Prompt addressing of problem credits Maintain adequate buffer of capital and reserves 22

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