Swedbank s third quarter 2012 results London

Transcription

1 Swedbank s third quarter 212 results London

2 Reduced tail risk but weaker economic outlook Low growth/low interest rate environment will remain Sweden benefits from strong financials Regulation drives: Asset repricing Increased savings competition Debt capital markets 2

3 Excellent financial strength enables investments Strong cost management RWA efficiency helps to improve competitive position Improved relative funding spreads more work do be done ROE 13.7% C/I.47 CT1-ratio 17.3%* LCR 144% NSFR 94% Increased investments in advisory and digital channels * Basel 2 3

4 Solid capitalisation level CT1-ratio 17.3 percent (Basel 2) Confirmed low risk level - ICAAP Low lending growth expected in foreseeable future 4

5 Retail Stable development SEKm Q1 Q2 Q3 Q/Q Net interest income Net commissions Total income Total expenses Profit before impairments Credit impairments Deposit margins pressure Repricing lending Solid asset quality ROE, % C/I ratio

6 Large Corporates & Institutions Improved profitability trend SEKm Q1 Q2 Q3 Q/Q Net interest income of which LC/FI* Net commissions Net gains and losses Total income Expenses excl. variable staff costs Variable staff costs Profit before Impairments Credit impairments Continued growth in Large Corporates NII Lending growth High debt capital market activity Investment banking slow ROE, % C/I * Large Corporates/Financial Institutions 6

7 Baltic Banking NII hurt by lower interest rates and FX SEKm Q1 Q2 Q3 Q/Q Net interest income Net commissions Total income Total expenses Profit before impairments Credit impairments Lower Euribor affected NII Negative FX effect Small lending growth in EUR ROE, % C/I

8 Group results Profitable quarter SEKm Q2 Q3 Q/Q YTD Net interest income Net commissions Net gains and losses Other income Total income Total expenses Profit before impairments Credit impairments Impairment of tangible assets Profit for the period Stable NII - Shrinking deposit margins - Continued repricing - Negative FX impact Cost management ahead of plan Stable asset quality Capital position further strengthened ROE, % C/I CT-1 ratio %, Basel

9 Cost performance Cost reduction ahead of plan Target to reduce costs by SEK 1bn 212 Staff costs -441m and consultancy costs -28m year on year Cost trend (SEKm) YTD 211 YTD 212 YTD Total expenses Variable staff costs Compensation to savings banks Restructuring cost Q3 211 Ukraine -1 FX effects -51 Underlying cost

10 Liquidity & Funding Relative funding spreads Senior unsecured 5Y 14 BPS Spread vs 3m Euribor Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 SWED 2/9/217 Average other major Nordic banks* * SEB, Nordea, Handelsbanken and Danske Bank 1

11 Risk weighted assets Reduced RWA continued focus SEKbn 495 RWA development RWA down SEK 1bn in quarter - Positive P/D changes - FX effect Focus remains Q2 Volume (EAD) Rating migration Credit risk FX-effects Other Market risk credit risk 212 Q3 11

12 Capital position Strong capitalisation in new regulatory environment Core Tier 1 ratio, 3 September 212 % % -1.2% -.7% 15.4% Q3 212 Basel 3* IAS 19 Q3 212 including Basel 3 and IAS 19 Retail mortgage risk-weights Internal measures (IRB Advanced) * Estimated based on Swedbank's current understanding of future regulations 12

13 Risk highlights Stable asset quality Credit impairments (SEKm) Q2 Q3 Retail 1 69 LC&I Baltic Banking Estonia Latvia Lithuania Group Functions & Other Russia Continued high credit quality in Sweden Exit costs Ukraine continues Macro outlook continues to weaken Ukraine Other 1 2 Swedbank Group

14 Asset quality Enhanced focus on crisis portfolio workout Impaired loans decreased SEK 2.4bn in Q3 to SEK 18bn Vast majority of impaired loans from crisis portfolio SEK bn Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q Q3 12 Ukraine Russia Lithuania Latvia Estonia LC&I Retail 14

15 Now launching the ipad app! 1.1 million users! 25. new users since June 2 million balance-shakes since June 1 % of all online equity trades within the mobile Improved equity trade functions Better economical overview First step of next generation Internet Bank 15

16 Q&A

17 Appendix 17

18 6 Mortgage loans, gross margin (3 months) % 5 4 Net margin 3 2 The gross margin should cover: Cost of liquidity ~.2% Administrative costs ~.3% Credit impairments ~.3% Tax (26.3% on profit before tax) Gross margin Swedbank's funding cost Stibor 3 months Swedish Riksbanks reporate 18

19 Large Corporates & Institutions Improved profitability trend SEKm Q3 11 Q4 11* Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Net interest income of which LC & FI** of which Markets Commission income of which LC & FI* * of which Markets Total income LC&I of which LC & FI** of which Markets Total expenses, excl variable pay Variable staff costs Profit before impairments of which LC & FI** of which Markets Total impairments C/I ratio * Excluding Lehman one-off,**large corporates and Financial institutions 19

20 Cost management Cost target 212 Target to reduce underlying costs by SEK 1bn 212 SEKbn Total expenses 211 (af ter restatements) Variable staff costs Restructuring costs Compensation to Savings Banks Underlying costs 211 Cost target 212 2

21 Liquidity and funding Core balance sheet* structure SEKbn 1 4 Assets SEKbn 1 4 Liabilities Government guaranteed debt Senior Estonia CEE lending Other corporate lending, Sweden & other Nordic coun Covered bonds 8 Other private, Sweden Swedish mortgage loans 4 Deposits 2 2 Q3 212 Q3 212 Suppl. cap Core T1 Source: Swedbank, Sep * Simplified balance sheet 21

22 Liquidity and funding Conservative liquidity levels Short-term funding mainly a tool for cash management More than 12 months pre-funded SEKbn Additional pledgeable and/or liquid 3 assets 25 Liquidity reserve, securities 2 15 Liquidity reserve, central bank deposits, SEKm Next 12-month term funding maturities CP / CDs and net interbank funding, SEKm Source: Swedbank Sep As defined by the Swedish Bankers Association 22

23 Liquidity and funding Relative funding cost in focus and improving Funding plan 212 completed Increased liquidity buffers LCR 144%, NSFR 94% Broadened and deepened investment base Term funding issuance completed and planned SEKbn 7 Covered bonds Senior unsecured Q311 Q411 Q112 Q212 Q312 Q412 Q113 Q213 Q313 23

24 Liquidity and funding Relative funding cost in focus and improving Funding plan 212 completed Continued conservative stance enhances liquidity buffer SEKm 3 Long-term debt issued SEKm 7 Outstanding short-term debt Q1 12 Q2 12 Q Q1 12 Q2 12 Q Domestic CB Euro CB USD CB (144A) Other CB Senior unsecured Domestic CP ECP/CD USCP Yankee CD French CD Finnish CD Source: Swedbank, Sep 3, 212, nominal amounts 24

25 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21 Q1 211 Q2 211 Q3 211 Q4 211 Q1 212 Q2 212 Q3 212 Q4 212 Q1 213 Q2 213 Q3 213 Q4 213 Q1 214 Q2 214 Q3 214 Q4 214 Q1 215 Q2 215 Q3 215 Q4 215 Liquidity and funding Relative funding cost in focus and improving Funding plan 212 completed Continued conservative stance enhances liquidity buffer SEKbn 12 Term funding issuance 1 8 Term funding issuance Average term funding issuance Average funding plan, rolling 12 months Average term funding need Source: Swedbank, Sep 3,

26 Liquidity and funding Long-term funding maturity profile FY 212 maturities amount to nominal SEK 86bn of which SEK 9bn for the remainder of 212 Long-term funding maturity profile SEKbn 2 15 Government guaranteed debt Senior unsecured debt Covered bonds Source: Swedbank Sep 3,

27 Liquidity and funding Limited need for USD-funding USD-funding need covered for more than 12 months Issued USD 1.5bn of covered bonds (144a) YTD 212 SEKbn Other assets & liabilities, incl positions in derivatives (off-balance) Interest-bearing securities 12 Lending to the public 1 Loans to credit institutions 8 Cash and balances with central banks Assets Liabilities Deposits and borrowings from the public Amounts owed to credit institutions Debt securities in issue Source: Swedbank, Jun 3, 212, (Fact book page 71) 27

28 Liquidity and funding Remaining government guaranteed debt Exited the programme on 3 April 21 No issuance under the programme since summer 29 Remaining outstanding debt of SEK 37bn maturing during 213 and 214 SEKbn 4 Maturity profile as per Q3 212 JPY 2 CHF USD SEK EUR Source: Swedbank Sep 3,

29 Over-collateralisation Liquidity and funding Senior unsecured debt strategy Limited need given Swedbank s balance sheet structure Secure OC Fund liquidity reserves Structural subordination? SEKbn 1 Senior unsecured debt maturity profile Senior unsecured debt 35% 3% 25% House price sensitivity of the cover pool OC 8 2% 15% 6 1% 4 5% % 2-5% -1% Source: Swedbank, Sep 3, 212, nominal amounts -15% % -5% -1% -15% -2% -25% -3% -35% -4% -45% -5% House price drop 29

30 Liquidity and funding Liquidity reserve According to the template defined by the Swedish Bankers' Association SEKm Cash and holdings in central banks Deposits in other banks available overnight 31 Securities issued or guaranteed by sovereigns, central banks or multilateral development banks Securities issued or guaranteed by municipalities or Public sector entities 381 Covered bonds Issued by other institutions Own issued Securities issued by non-financial corporates Securities issued by financial corporates (excl. covered bonds) Other Total Additional liquid assets, Group % of the securities in the liquidity reserve per Q3 212 are rated AAA 2 9% of the additional liquid assets fulfill the Liquidity Reserve definition by the Swedish Bankers Association except from that they are held outside the Treasury department. Source: Swedbank Fact book, Sep 3, 212 3

31 Liquidity and funding Asset encumbrance Distribution by type of liability and asset SEKm Government debt instruments Central banks and supranational debt instruments Covered bonds Debt instruments issued by credit institutions Securities issued by corporate and other issuers ABS Mortgage loans Cash Total Central bank funding Intraday settlement collateral 1) Repurchase agreements 1) Derivative collateral 2) Covered bonds 3) Accrued interest of assets in the cover pool Total Financial assets pledged for insurance policy holders Additional assets available for secured funding 4) SEKm Government debt instruments Central banks and supranational debt instruments Covered bonds Debt instruments issued by credit institutions Securities issued by corporate and other issuers ABS Mortgage loans Cash Total What is right level of asset encumbrance? Different quality of encumbrance: asset-liability matched vs. mismatched Balance between PD and LGD Risks Bail in legislation swing factor? Regulation Market practice Securities 5, 6) Cover pool (over collateralisation) 3) Cover pool eligible assets 7) Total ) Pledged or repoed securities on balance sheet. 2) Collateral posted under CSA agreements, gross (3-year, SEKm, High: , Low : 9 796, Average: ). 3) Nominal amount excluding accrued interest. 4) Assets not currently encumbered. 5) Reversed repos are included. 6) All type of securities, including securities non pledgeable at central banks, of w hich 83% are rated AAA, 3% are rated below A- and 7% are not rated. 7) Type of loans; Residential 84.7%, Forestry & Agriculture 15.2%, Commercial.1%. Source: Swedbank Facts Q

32 Swedish housing and mortgage market Swedish mortgage market No securitization (on balance sheet), no sub-prime market, no 3 rd party origination, no buy-to-let market 7% home ownership 1 Rental market is regulated Transparent credit information (credit information agency, Publicly available information regarding income, debt, payment track record etc Consumer credit legislation requires affordability calculations including stress test of higher interest rate Very limited debt forgiveness possibilities (full recourse) Strong social security and generous unemployment benefit system 1 Source: Boverket,

33 Swedish housing and mortgage market Real estate prices Sweden 12 months development Single-family homes 1 Tenant-owner rights 2 Combined 3 12M Δ 12M Δ 12M Δ Oct/11-4% -1% -3% Nov/11-5% -4% -5% Dec/11-7% -4% -6% Jan/12-4% -2% -4% Feb/12-4% -1% -3% Mar/12-4% 1% -3% Apr/12-2% 2% -1% May/12-2% 3% -1% Jun/12-1% 4% % Jul/12 % 4% 1% Aug/12 2% 4% 3% Sep/12 2% 5% 3% Source: Valuegard (Based on data from Mäklarstatistik), 1 HOXHOUSESWE, 2 HOXFLATSWE, 3 HOXSWE 33

34 Jan-5 Jul-5 Jan-6 Jul-6 Jan-7 Jul-7 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-5 Jul-5 Jan-6 Jul-6 Jan-7 Jul-7 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-5 Jul-5 Jan-6 Jul-6 Jan-7 Jul-7 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul Baltic real estate prices Real estate prices Baltic countries Tallinn 1 8 Riga Source: Swedbank, Estonian Nr.of deals Land Board EUR/m2 Source: Swedbank Nr.of deals EUR/m2 1 8 Vilnius Nr.of deals EUR/m2 34

35 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Asset quality Loans past due 6 days performance Q/Q EURm Estonia Latvia Lithuania Ukraine Russia 35

36 Asset quality Provisions well provided for SEKm % 61.5% 65.% 63.7% 65.2% Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Individual provisions Portf olio provisions Provision ratio Provision ratios, % Q3 12 Retail 77 LC&I 148 Baltic Banking 56 Russia 64 Ukraine 82 Group 65 36

37 Credit portfolio Retail Corporate Retail portfolio will drive capital efficiency Swedbank Mortgage AB Leasing (Swedbank Finance AB) Other Total portfolio SEK 23bn Segments excl. Swedbank Mortgage and Swedbank Finance Volume (SEKbn) Secured (%) Agriculture Manufacturing Public sector and utilities Construction Retail Transportation 2. 8 Shipping.1 98 Hotels and restaurants Information & communication Finance and insurance Property management Professional service Other Total

38 Credit portfolio Large Corporates & Institutions Shipping and offshore - structure SEKbn 3 Shipping and Offshore 11.6% -1.6% Lending exposure to shipping and offshore sector of SEK 25.1bn plus unutilised commitments of SEK 6.2bn Portfolio duration 4-5y Average fleet age 7y Strong employment profiles 1 15 Q3-11 Q4-11 Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 RORO 2, Offshore Tanker Other Container 1, Dry bulk 1, Shipping and Offshore Portfolio by Currency Gas (LNG/LPG) 1, Crude oil Product 1, 3,3 JPY Q3-12 Chemical,5 NOK Floating production 2, Accommodation,8 USD Supply 3,8 Oil service 2,3 EUR Drilling & exploration Cruise,5 6, SEK

39 Credit portfolio Agriculture retail Segmentation Definitions Corporate Agriculture: Businesses that derive their main income from agricultural activities Private Investments: Private individuals who own agricultural properties for living or investment purposes Private residents 2 % Agriculture 44 % Lending to the agriculture industry Approx SEK 62bn per Q3 212 Corporate agriculture: (57%) Agriculture 44% Forestry 13% Private investments (43%) Residents: 2% Forestry: 23% Private forestry 23 % Forestry 13 % 39

40 ICAAP 212 ICAAP Scenario Deep recession without recovery Triggers Europe enters into deep recession Limited possibilities for fiscal stimulus European bank runs Credit contraction Closed funding markets Outcome Sharp GDP drop with no recovery (1-15% from 211 level) Severe drop in house prices (25-37% from 211 level) Depreciated EUR and appreciated SEK Devaluation in Latvia and Lithuania 4

41 ICAAP High capitalisation even in extremely stressed scenario Revenue decrease 31 percent Credit impairments SEK 64bn over 5 year Scenario effects on Core Tier 1 ratio -165bp Well above 12% Core Tier 1 ratio at low point even in extremely stressed scenario in new regulatory environment 41

42 ICAAP 212 ICAAP dcenario Deep recession without recovery 15 GDP - Index 15 Real Estate prices - index Sweden Estonia Latvia Lithuania Sweden Estonia Latvia Lithuania 3.% 2.5% 2.% 1.5% Interest rates 3m FX scenario 1.% 4.5%.% Euribor Stibor USD/SEK EUR/SEK GBP/SEK 42

43 ICAAP 212 ICAAP Main scenario results NII decreases by 39% throughout the scenario SEK bn Net Interest Income Credit Impairments total SEK 64bn over the scenario period RWA decreases due to significant credit impairments and deleveraging 1 SEK bn SEKbn Credit impairments RWA incl. reg effects

44 ICAAP 212 ICAAP Income statement Income statement (SEKbn) Total Total net interest income Total income Total expenses Profit before credit losses Credit losses Operating profit Appropriations Tax Profit for the year Minority interest Profit for the year attr to shareholders Dividend Profit after tax, min. int. & dividend

45 ICAAP 212 ICAAP Credit impairments Credit impairments (%) EAD 211 (SEKbn) Acc. loss ratio Total 1, of which LC & I Retail Estonia Latvia Lithuania Russia & Ukraine The accumulated losses constitute SEK 63.6bn. Credit impairments in LC&I and Retail constitute 74% of total accumulated credit impairments Credit impairments LC & I and Retail (%) EAD 211 (SEKbn) Acc. loss ratio Agriculture, forestry and fishing Manufacturing Public sector and utilities Construction Retail Transportation Shipping Hotels and restaurants Information and communication Finance and insurance Property management Cooperative housing associations Other corporate lending Professional services Bank Private Total 1,

46 ICAAP 212 ICAAP Main adverse scenario results Capital assessment RWA & Capital (SEKbn) RWA RWA inc 15% mortgage riskweight * RWA inc regulatory effects ** Core Tier Core Tier 1 inc regulatory effects ** Total Capital base Capital assessment (%) Core Tier 1 ratio Core Tier 1 ratio inc 15% mortgage riskweight * Core Tier 1 ratio inc. regulatory effects ** Total capital ratio inc. 15% mortgage riskweight * * The effect of a 15% average riskweight on the Swedish Mortgage portfolio ** Includes assessed effects of Basel 3, IAS 19 and changed mortgage risk-weights 46