Weekly Salmon Outlook Week

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Weekly Salmon Outlook Week"

Madison Kelly
6 years ago
Views:

1 Week Page 1 of 8 Harvest of Atlantic salmon in Norway continued to grow in week 9. The harvest volume ( tonnes wfe) was up 1000 tonnes from the previous week and 3% higher than in the corresponding week last year. Even though the average harvest weight has climbed over the last 4 weeks, the average weight is still lagging behind last year s weights. Spot prices continued down last week, by 7%. Measured in EUR, spot prices week 9 were 5% higher than in the corresponding week last year. However, measured in NOK spot prices were 2% lower than last year. The increase in both harvest volume and harvest weight have put extra pressure on spot prices for large sized salmon ( + 6 kg). Newly released trade data from Chile show the reason why prices for fresh Chilean fillets on the US market have trended on a high level. The export volume of fresh fillets from Chile to the US market fell by %, to tonnes product weight, while the fob export price averaged USD/kg, which is record high and up 74% from the corresponding month last year. Overall exports of Atlantic salmon from Chile in January was tonnes wfe, down 21% from January last year. The only Chilean market to which export volumes grew was China ( +8%). Forward prices trended slightly down this week despite reports on higher spot prices for the upcoming week. Industry reports point to lower harvest volumes in Norway and weakening of NOK against the EURO as the main reasons for higer price expectations next week. The price forecast presented in the table and graphs below are based on a model combining regression analysis of main factors aff ecting short term market prices and production, and harvest and market supply forecast from production and market models. Please note that forecast output is in Euro. The models do not and cannot include all assumptions and factors. Our price forecast is thus presented with a high/low range, where other assessments, and week to week developments are taken into concideration. PRICE OUTLOOK Summary 4 Week Forecast based on harvest and price forecast models weeks 9 ch w-1 in % ch Y-1 in % Feb ch w-1 Mar ch w-1 Apr ch w-1 May ch w-1 European prices - FPSP - EUR/kilo 7,12 6,67-0,12-7 % 0,30 5 % 7,10 0,00 6,60 0,00 6,90 0,00 6,80 0,00 Exchange rate EUR / NOK 8,86 8,88-0,05 1 % -0,64-7 % 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 European prices - FPSP - NOK/kilo 63,10 59, -1,37-7 % -1,45-2 % 63,90 0,00 59,40 0,00 62,10 0,00 61,20 0,00 HQ: Norway Price Forecast - European "Spot" prices (FPI): 9 EURO / kilo 8,5 8 7,5 7 6,5 6 5,5 5 Fresh salmon 3-6 kilo, fca Oslo 80 NOK / kilo ,5 4 Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May EUR/NOK Forecast exchange rate: 9.00 Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Actual spot price Kontali Forecast Upper range Lower range Spot 3-6 kg Y-1 Forward Market Prices: 80 NOK / kilo Actual spot price Current Forward Prices Forward Prices W-1 Spot 3-6 kg Y Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

2 Week Page 2 of 8 WEEKLY SALES VOLUMES Historic Harvest Quantity, weekly data/ka models Forecast Harvest Quantity, KA models Norway Av. harvest weight wfe Total HQ Europe HQ NORWAY TOTAL HQ EUROPE Period curr Y ch Y-1 curr Y ch Y-1 curr Y ch Y-1 Period curr Y ch Y-1 curr Y ch Y-1 Nov % % Week % -6 % % -1 % Dec % % Week % ### % #### Jan % % Week % ### % #### Week % 4,29-9 % % Week % ### % #### Week % 4,37-5 % % Av 4W % 4 % % 8 % Week % 4,47-5 % % Sum 4W % 4 % % 8 % Week % 4,95-3 % % Feb % -1 % % -3 %. 4W % 4,52-5 % % Mar % -1 % % 3 % Sum 4W % % Apr % -3 % % 1 % Sum 4WY May % 5 % % 9 % SEA TEMPERATURE INDEX Sea temperatures indices consist of observations from each region. West region consist of Hordaland and Sogn og Fjordane counties, Mid consist of Møre og Romsdal and Sør-Trøndelag and North consist of Nord-Trøndelag and Nordland. Average Norway is the average sea temperatures for all counties involved with salmon farming. 4 ch Sea temp weeks ch Y-1 YTD Y-1 West 6,9 6,7 6,6 6,7 6,7 1 % 6,9-2 % Mid 6,0 6,0 5,7 5,6 5,8-4 % 6,3-1 % North 5,2 5,1 4,8 5,4 5,1-3 % 5,5 1 % Norway 5,7 5,5 5,2 5,3 5,4 0 % 5,9 1 % 15,0 13,0 11,0 9,0 7,0 5,0 3,0 Norway - average 4 Y Max-Min RAnge 20 20,0 14,0 12,0 10,0 8,0 6,0 4 Y Max-Min RAnge Mid 1, , ,0,0 15,0 13,0 11,0 9,0 7,0 5,0 4 Y Max-Min RAnge West,0 14,0 12,0 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 4 Y Max-Min Range North 3, ,

3 Week Page 3 of 8 This week the Norwegian government announced that regulation coordinated de-liceing of farmed salmon in sea is replaced by a regulation which sets a lower maximum level of mature sea lice in the period where smolts from wild stocks migrate to the oce an. In the period where smolts migrate to the sea (from week to 21 in Trøndelag and further south and from week 21 to 26 in Nordl and, Troms and Finnmark) the maximum number of mature sea lice per salmon is set to 0.2. While the new regulation is introduced in order to protect wild salmon stocks, it could also lead to change in the production and harvest dynamics in Norway. As the regulation is newly introduced, we have not had the opportunity to look at possible effect s. We will come back to this topic in upcoming reports. PRODUCTION TRENDS NORWAY MONTHLY HARVEST VOL NORWAY Change, monthly harvest vol, YoY S1 14G S0 14G S1 15G S0 15G S1 G 10 % 5 % 0 % -5 % -10 % -15 % -20 % Harvest weight, gutted 4,80 4,70 4,60 4,50 4,40 4,30 4,20 4,10 3,90 May Jun Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2015/20 20/20 Development, Harvest ready biomass (+ 4 kg) Harvestable Biomasse Estimat Y-1 Biomass Development, oldest Generations, Norway Total Biomass of Forecast Q+1 S1 15G vs S1 14G S0 15G vs S0 14G Generations for Harvest Forecast W-1 Change Forecast W-1 Biomass, oldest Generation No ind weigth Volume No ind weigth Volume No ind weigth Volume No ind weigth Volume 1st of Jan , , , , No ind weigth Vol. 1st of Jan , , , , ,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % Balance Jan % -31 % 0 % 2 % -4 % -5 % -4 % -5 % 1st of Feb , , , , st of Feb , , , , ,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % Balance Feb % -20 % -1 % 1 % -3 % -3 % -3 % -3 % 1st of Mar , , , , st of Mar , , , , ,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % Balance Mar % -12 % -2 % 0 % -3 % -2 % -3 % -2 %

4 Week Page 4 of 8 PRODUCTION TRENDS EUROPE MONTHLY HARVEST VOL EUROPE ex Norway (UK, Faroe Is, Ireland) IE FO UK % 25 % 20 % 15 % 10 % 5 % 0 % -5 % -10 % -15 % -20 % -25 % Change, monthly harvest vol, YoY Development avg weight, harvest quantity EUROPE ex. Norway (UK, Faroe Is, Ireland) 4,70 4,60 4,50 4,40 4,30 4,20 4,10 May Jun Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2015/20 20/20 Biomass Development, oldest Generations, Europe ex. Norway (UK, Faroe Is, Ireland) Total Biomass of Generations for Forecast Q+1 S1 15G vs S1 14G S0 15G vs S0 14G Harvest Forecast W-1 Change Forecast W-1 Biomass, oldest Generation No ind weigth Volume No ind weigth Volume No ind weigth Volume No ind weigth Volume No ind weigth Volume 1st of Jan , , , , st of Jan , , , , ,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % Balance Jan % 38 % 11 % 18 % % 22 % % 22 % 1st of Feb , , , , st of Feb , , , , ,6 % 0,6 % 1,2 % Balance Feb % 56 % 19 % 31 % 23 % 35 % 22 % 33 % 1st of Mar , , , , st of Mar , , , , ,2 % 1,7 % 5,9 % Balance Mar % 90 % 25 % 42 % 30 % 47 % 25 % 39 % PRODUCTION TRENDS AMERICAS/AUSTRALIA MONTHLY HARVEST VOL AMERICAS/AUSTRALIA Australia North-America Chile Change, monthly harvest vol, YoY 20 % 15 % 10 % 5 % 0 % -5 % -10 % -15 % -20 % -25 % -30 %

5 Week Page 5 of 8 HISTORICAL ESTIMATED MARGIN DEVELOMPENT Margin development fca Oslo vs Retail France Margin development fca Oslo vs Wholesale France 3Y range 3Y 20 3,00 5,00 2,00 1,00 0,00 3,00-1,00 2,00 3Y range 3 Y , HISTORICAL MARKET PRICES Norway Fresh Whole average - NQSALMON NOK/KG 85,00 75,00 65,00 55,00 45,00 35,00 25,00 3Y Range 3Y , Japan fresh whole salmon Norwegian fob export price NOK/KG 100,00 90,00 80,00 70,00 60,00 50,00 40,00 30,00 3Y Range 3Y Average , Price Whole Salmon - Retail France EUR/KG 1 13,00 12,00 11,00 3Y Range 3Y Price Fresh Norwegian Salmon 4-5kg -Wholesale Rungis EUR/KG #### 5,00 3,00 3Y Range 3Y USA fresh fillets Chilean D-trim 1-1,5 kg fob - Miami USD/KG 1 13,00 12,00 11,00 Range 3Y 3Y , USA fresh salmon 5-6 kg, fob North East USD/KG 5,00 Range 3Y 3Y

6 Week Page 6 of 8 MARKET TRENDS - MARKET VALUE INDEX (MVI) Projection of market value is based on forecasted supply volume and average price level for the last 4 months. See definitions for construction of MVI. US Atlantic salmon index (in USD) Index ch Y-1 Q % Q % Q % Oct % Nov % Dec % Jan % US value index Value Index Y- 1 Rolling 15 M EU Atlantic salmon index (in EUR) Index ch Y-1 Q % Q % Q % Oct % Nov % Dec % Jan % RU Atlantic salmon index (in RUB) Index ch Y-1 Q % Q % Q % Oct % Nov % Dec % Jan % 0 6, ,500 5,000 4, ,500 3,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15, EU value index Value Index Y-1 Rolling 15 M Russia value Index Value Index Y-1 Rolling 15 M JP Atlantic salmon index (in JPY) 0 Index ch Y-1 0 #DIV/0! JP value index Q % 0 Q % 5,000 Value Index Q % #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Y-1 ## Oct % 0 Nov % Rolling 3,000 Dec % 15 M Jan % 2, MARKET SUPPLY TRENDS - VOLUMES EU USA RUSSIA JAPAN Others WW wfe / 1000t wfe / 1000t wfe / 1000t wfe / 1000t wfe / 1000t wfe / 1000t curr Y ch Y-1 curr Y ch Y-1 curr Y ch Y-1 curr Y ch Y-1 curr Y ch Y-1 curr Y ch Y-1 Q % % % 12-9 % % % Q % % % % % % Q % % % 7 % 4 5 % % Q % 107 % % % 5 6 % % Q % % 21 5 % % % % Q % % % 14 % % % Q % 97-5 % % -1 % % % Jun % % % 4-31 % 50-2 % % Jul % 33 3 % % 5-5 % % % Aug % % 11 0 % 6 24 % 53 5 % % Sep % 35 % 9-32 % 5 4 % 56-2 % % Oct % 34 6 % 9-51 % 6 11 % 59 1 % 2-1 % Nov % % % 6-2 % % % Dec % % 7 - % 8 29 % 57 8 % % Jan 79 0 % 37 8 % 7 30 % 5 23 % 54 3 % % Feb 80 9 % % 6-7 % 6 49 % 53 5 % % Mar 90-5 % % 8-1 % 5 27 % 53-3 % % Apr 86 4 % 38 6 % 4-48 % 5 22 % 51 6 % % May 84-4 % 34 2 % 4-53 % 4 15 % 47-2 % 4-4 % Jun % % 5-50 % 5 10 % 47-6 % 9-12 % Jul 79-7 % 30-8 % 5-55 % 5-2 % % 1-15 % Aug 90 4 % 35 2 % 6-43 % 6-3 % 51-2 % % Sep % 32-8 % 7-23 % 5 3 % 51-9 % % Oct % 32-7 % 8-13 % 5-18 % 49 - % % Nov 97-2 % % 7-33 % 6-2 % % % Dec 91-7 % % 7-2 % 8-4 % 57-1 % % Jan % 34-7 % 5-27 % 5 0 % % 2-11 %

7 Week Page 7 of 8 MAIN CURRENCY TRENDS NOK/EUR 9,80 9,60 9,40 9,20 8,80 EUR/USD 0,96 0,94 0,92 0,90 0,88 8, , NOK/USD 8,80 8,60 8,40 GBP/EUR 0,95 0,90 0,85 0,80 0,75 8,20 0,70 0, , NOK/100JPY 7,80 7,60 NOK/GBP 13,00 12,50 12,00 11,50 7,40 11,00 7,20 10, , RUB/USD 81,00 JPY/USD 1, , ,00 61,

8 Week Page 8 of 8 Definitions / Abbreviations wfe Whole Fish Eqvivalent; equal to round harvest weight (ex blood) Biomass Live stock G Generation of salmon S 1 Smolt released into the sea in spring - after 1-2 years in landbased smolt plant S 0 Smolt released into the sea in the autumn - after less than a year in landbased smolt plant Harvest ready biomass Sea temperature HQ HQ Forecast Europe t metric tonnes av average Q Quarter Y Year m Month m-1 Previous month w Week w-1 Prevoius week YoY Change Year over Year NQSALMON NQSALMON 3-6 FPI FP FWD European prices Fca Oslo Vol HOG head on, gutted NO Norway RU Russia JP Japan EU market EU 27 USA NE An estimated share of the biomass which based on average weight of the various fish groups, has reached a size qualifying as harvest ready (4kg wfe) presented in degrees celsius Harvest quantity Harvest forecast based on Kontali production models Europe related to production; European salmon farming countries Norwegian first hand prices for fresh gutted superior quality salmon,delivered fca Oslo, collected and presented by NASDAQ OMX The above mentioned price quotation for salmon size 3-6 kilo FishPool Index FishPool forward prices Equal to Fish Pool Index which is composed by 3 indexes (of which 1 is European purchasing prices) Free Carrier (inco term); sales price for salmon delivered in Oslo volume USA North East coast (price quotations on US East coast) MVI EUR NOK JPY RUB GBP USD Market Value Index; measures total market supply value, in market currency, based on supply volume from the main supplying countries and a composition of relevant market prices for each market. Estimated Future MVI; monthly price input based on KA price forecast EURO Norwegian Krone Japanese Yen Russian Rubles British Pound Sterling United States Dollar Disclamer The report/analysis do not contain any specific advice in relation to particular financial instruments, issuers of such or transactions and the report do not constitute investment advice or investment recommendations according to the Norwegian Securities Trading Act of 29. June The Buyer bears all responsibility for act taken or omissions made by the Buyer on the basis of the reports. Kontali Analyse (KA) shall not be held liable for any act or omission or consequences of any transactions or decisions allegedly made by the Buyer as a result of any information provided by KA to the Buyer. KA shall not be liable for direct or indirect errors in the report or any other analysis or in its conclusions and advice. #### The Buyer may use the report for its own purposes and not contrary to this clause or in any other disloyal manner. The Week report18 may not without the prior written consent of KA be reproduced, published or summarised for distribution or incorporation into a larger report or missive or otherwise relayed or distributed whether internally or to a third party.

Santiago, May 11 th, Results Presentation 1Q18

Santiago, May 11 th, Results Presentation 1Q18 Santiago, May 11 th, 2018 Results Presentation 1Q18 Agenda I. Highlights II. III. Financial Statements Supply, Demand and Prices IV. Farming Operation V. Prospects 2 Highlights EBIT 1Q18 USD 18.8 million