CAPITAL MARKETS AND FOREX OVERVIEW JULY 2016 REPORT

Transcription

1 CAPITAL MARKETS AND FOREX OVERVIEW JULY 2016 REPORT

2 NON-DISCLOSURE CLAUSE Union Capital Limited has prepared this material. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only and are subject to change without notice. In the event any of the assumptions used herein do not prove to be true, results are likely to vary substantially. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate its ability to invest for a long term especially during periods of a market downturn. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Union Capital Limited. This information is provided with the understanding that with respect to the material provided herein, that you will make your own independent decision with respect to any course of action in connection herewith and as to whether such course of action is appropriate or proper based on your own judgment, and that you are capable of understanding and assessing the merits of a course of action. You may not rely on the statements contained herein. Union Capital Limited shall not have any liability for any damages of any kind whatsoever relating to this material. You should consult your advisors with respect to these areas. By accepting this material, you acknowledge, understand and accept the foregoing. 2

3 CONTENT TREASURY RATES 4 INFLATION 5 MONETARY POLICY 6 GSE ANALYSIS 7 FOREX 8 ABOUT UNION CAPITAL LIMITED 9 CONTACT INFORMATION 10 3

4 TREASURY RATE ANALYSIS For the period ended 30 June 2016, yields on the 91- and the 182-day bills were 22.79% and 24.60%, respectively HALF YEAR TREND Rates on the 1-year note and 2-year bonds were unchanged at 23.0% and 24.25% respectively. 25.0% Over the review period of July 2016, whiles treasury rates on the 91-day bill inched up by a base point while the 24.5% 182-day bill inched up by 6bps to close at 22.80% and 24.66% respectively. 24.0% Yields on the 1 and 2-year notes were unchanged. 23.5% We expect yields on the 91-day treasury bills to increase, albeit, marginally. We also expect the fixed income 23.0% market to continue to be buoyant as inflation outlook looks bleak. 22.5% YEAR-TO-DATE SUMMARY 91-Day 182-Day 1-Yr Note 2-Yr Note CURRENT* 22.80% 24.66% 23.00% 24.25% HIGH 22.90% 24.73% 24.00% 24.25% 22.0% 4-Jan-16 2-Feb-16 2-Mar Mar Apr May Jun-16 LOW 22.51% 24.19% 23.00% 23.00% AVERAGE 22.74% 24.58% 23.03% 23.91% MEDIAN 22.78% 24.62% 23.00% 24.05% 91-Day 1-Year Note 182-Day 2-Yr Fixed Rate Note *as at the end of July

5 INFLATION RATE ANALYSIS Ghana s year-on-year inflation declined marginally to 18.4% for May 2016; a fall of 5bps from 18.9% reported for May The decline in June was a reversal from the 0.5 percent points increase for May. The year-on-year non-food inflation rate for June decline to 24.1% from 25% in May. Key inflationary drivers include Transport (40.3%), Education (33.3%), Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and other fossil fuels (32.8%) and Recreation and Culture (27.4%). 20.0% 19.0% YEAR ON YEAR INFLATION TREND The year-on-year food inflation rate for June 2016 was 8.6%, up a base point from the 8.5% recorded for May 18.0% The price drivers for this category include vegetables (12.5%), oils and fats (11.2%), and fruits (10.4%). 17.0% Inflation rate for imported items increased to 27.1% in June, from the 18.5% recorded in May Inflation for locally produced items was however 1.8% higher than the imported items in June. 16.0% At the regional level, year-on-year inflation rate ranged from 13.8% in the Upper East Region to 22.4% in the Greater Accra. NB: As of the release of this report, the inflation figures for July 2016 had not been published by the GSS. Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 June 5

6 MONETARY POLICY RATE The Monetary Policy Committee held its 71 st sitting and maintained the Policy Rate at 26.0%. It observed the risks to inflation and growth as balanced. The BoG s Real Composite Index of Economic Activity (CIEA) reflected a modest pick-up in economic activity. The main factors for the improved economic activity were industrial consumption of electricity, port activities, cement sales and domestic VAT collections. 27% 26% 26% POLICY RATE TREND Growth prospects for the rest of the year would be impacted positively by the stability in the foreign 25% exchange market, continued improvement in consumer and business sentiments, and the realization of additional 25% oil and gas production from the TEN oil fields. However, risks to the growth outlook, such as, the tight 24% credit conditions, electricity supply shortfalls and continued fiscal tightness, may moderate the pace of 24% economic expansion. The next MPC meeting is scheduled for September 16-19, % Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 6

7 GSE ANALYSIS The GSE-CI inched up 49bps for the period,. Year-todate, the index has declined by 9.96%. GSE-CI RETURN TREND The GSE-FSI, also, increased by 0.46% closing the month at 1, Year-to-date, the index has posted a decline of 13.0%. 1.1% 9.93 million shares were traded in July However, 0.6% liquidity on the bourse fell by 46.07% as value of trade fell to GHS million, from GHS million in 0.1% June. Total market capitalization on the local bourse was GHS54.61 billion, representing a 0.34% fall compared to June s closing value of GHS54.79 billion. -0.4% GSE TRADING SUMMARY - JULY % DETAIL OPEN CLOSE CHANGE (%) GSE-CI 1, , % GSE-CI YTD % -9.96% -1.4% GSE-FSI 1, , % GSE-FSI YTD % % MARKET CAP. (GHS' BN) % MARKET CAP. (US$ BN) % 4-Jan-16 4-Feb-16 4-Mar-16 4-Apr-16 4-May-16 4-Jun-16 4-Jul-16 VOLUME TRADED (mil. units) % VALUE TRADED (GHS' mm) % VALUE TRADED (US$'mm)

8 FOREX ANALYSIS CURRENCY MONTHLY % CHANGE % CHANGE AV. RATE YEAR-TO-DATE HIGH LOW MEDIAN AUD 3.0% 6.8% CFA 0.0% 4.8% CHF 0.0% 5.7% EUR -0.3% 5.4% GBP -6.3% -8.2% JPY 2.7% 20.6% USD 1.3% 2.5% YUAN 0.8% 0.5% Source: Oanda.com. Average daily midpoint exchange rate. Over the reporting month of July 2016, the Ghana Cedi appreciated against the British Pound and Euro. It appreciated 6.3% and 0.3% against the British Pound and Euro respectively. Year to date, the Ghana Cedi has gained 8.2% of its value against the British Pound Sterling. It depreciated against the Australian Dollar, the Japanese Yen, the US Dollar and the Chinese Yuan. It however remained flat against the CFA and Swiss Franc for the period under review. Year-to-date, the Cedi has depreciated against all the reported currencies but the Pounds Sterling with the most significant being the JPY(20.6%), AUD (6.8%), and CHF(5.7%). We anticipate the tight policy stance, inflows from the cocoa pre-export finance facility and expected issuance of the Eurobond in the last quarter would boost reserves, improve liquidity on the foreign exchange market. 8

9 ABOUT UNION CAPITAL LIMITED Union Capital Limited (UCL) is an impact investment banking firm providing Corporate Finance & Investment Advisory, Asset Management, and Private Equity & Venture Capital. Union Capital Limited is a subsidiary of the Jospong Group. UCL through its parent and affiliate companies, has unique partnerships with players in key sectors of the economy. UCL also has an understanding of clients needs from a local perspective with global expertise. UCL s human resource and strategic competencies span several functional areas, including finance, business strategy, HR and marketing. We, therefore, structure effective turnkey transactions that meets identified needs in several sectors of focus. MISSION To be the preferred investment banking firm by generating superior financial and social returns. VISION To provide investment management and advisory services to enable our clients achieve optimum financial results and social impact. 9

10 CONTACT INFORMATION Location: Union Capital Limited 231 Basket Junction, Spintex, Accra Ghana Post: P. O. Box KN 5569 Kaneshie, Accra Ghana Telecom: M: E: W: 10