The answers to your questions.

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1 The answers to your questions. By / Ragnar Nystøyl CHRISTMAS SEMINAR Bergen, 19. November 2014

2 Agenda - Norwegian Production & Supply issues - Global Production & Supply issues - Market- & Price-related issues

3 Answering Your Questions Norwegian Production Issues

4 Feed sales down on higher biomass? SALE OF DRY FEED IN TONNES Change % /14 January % February % March % April % May % June % July % August % September % October % Total % November December Year total Source: Fishfeed Producers Organisation (FPF/FHL) The statistics include sale of dry feed to farms and smolt plants in Norway for all species of fish. Kontali Analyse AS has estimated the share that is used for salmon production in fish farms.

5 Norway; Relative Feeding Atlantic Salmon

6 Seawater Temperatures

7 Seawater Temperatures

8 The Sealice Combat. Number of feeding days per month - 30 Number of feeding days lost per «treatment» Percentage of sites treated / month % Do the Math!!

9 MAB Capacity vs. Biomass

10 MAB Capacity vs. Biomass Green Licenses Cat. B 6 % Temporary Increase MAB Green Licenses Cat. A + C Removal Temporary Increase Est. 20 % of industry buy & report implementation of 5 % Green Increase

11 Biomass Status per end October Atlantic Salmon - Norway Biomass - Atlantic Salmon - Norway Change in % Estim ated stock per Estim ated stock per Num ber Avg. W Biom ass 12 G S0 50 a 6, G S0 80 a 5, G S a 4, G S a 4, % 1 % -15 % S a 3, S a 2, % 6 % 14 % 14 G S a 1, G S a 1, % 2 % 5 % S a 0, S a 0, % 6 % 12 % Total stock (r.w.) Total stock (r.w.) %

12 Seawater Temperatures Bathing conditions Outer Bergen harbour area Week : 10,4 C Bathing conditions Outer Bergen harbour area Week : 11,2 C Can this indicate that were heading for a new warm winter?

13 Answering Your Questions Global Production Issues

14 Chile E tonn (+ 10 %) Which regions are behind this growth? Chile: tonn Norway: «Faroe Islands: «Scotland: «North-America: «Others: «

15 «Turnover on Biomass» - Chile For generations second year in sea Harvest of 13G in 2014/ Biomass 13G primo 2014

16 Development - Loss per Generation Atlantic Salmon - Chile

17 Answering Your Questions Market & Price Issues

18 Market growth during 2014 Considerable GLOBAL MARKET GROWTH EU USA RUSSIA JAPAN Chg. Volume(wfe) Chg in % OTHERS Q % 3 % 4 % -14 % 16 % 10 % Q % 14 % 6 % -2 % 32 % 27 % Q % 12 % 10 % 5 % 3 % 14 % Q % 5 % 12 % -22 % -9 % 13 % Q ,5 % Q ,5 %

19 A man that goes by a new name in Chile.. Saint Putin

20 Chilean Exports to Russia Frozen whole Atlantic salmon

21 Increasing amounts of money involved (Export revenues All salmonids - Chile -> Russia)

22 Weak RUBLE Purchasing Power? - Solvency? June: 1600 tonnes exported USD 5,99 / kilo fx. July ~ 35 RUB 210 / kilo September: tonnes exported USD 5,92 / kilo (- 1 %) fx. October ~ 40 RUB 240 (+ 14 %)

23 Norwegian Export Distribution - Salmon Effect from Russian Import Ban

24 Russia Market Shares Atlantic Salmon Development through Q2- Q4 * Domestic supply + Est. re-export from 3rd countries

25 Norwegian Export Distribution - Trout Effect from Russian Import Ban

26 Norwegian EU-exports: + 11 %.to France: - 9 % Is the French Market really that weak? -9 % -5 %

Price development - 2014 Nasdaq Salmon Index

27 Price development Nasdaq Salmon Index (3-6) (weighted by real size split & weekly harvest)

28 Currency Development A strong driver behind increased prices.. EUR / NOK USD / NOK

29 Scenario 50+ in 2015 What happens with Supply and Market, in order to see 50+ in a quarter Is this a possible scenario? Yes.

30 Scenario 50+ in 2015 Supply - No warm winter in Norway - Sealice resistance (Salmosan) - Chile Yield down, feeding down and loss-rate up - Production issues with sealice, PD and AGD persists. Market / Demand - Oil price increase, and RUB / USD to 40 or lower - World relation to Russia stabilizes - 3rd country «trade-flow valves» - still open. - No «3rd» EU-ressecion - European Bird Flu situation escalates

31 Scenario 30- in 2015 What happens with Supply and Market, in order to see 30+ in a quarter Is this a possible scenario? Perhaps..?

32 Supply - Warm winter in Norway Scenario 30- in Biomass being held back (till end March in Norway) -> High sealice levels + early occurance ofagd from Agder to Trøndelag leads to excess harvesting Aug Oct - Turnover on biomass 14G - Chile -> «3x» or higher Chile supply 15 ends at 580 Market / Demand - RUB / USD at 45 or higher Demand for salmon is notably affected by high - NOK / EUR back to 8,00 or lower, and NOK / USD at 6,10 or lower - Payment issues Russia Shipments from Chile and Fare Islands to Russia stop - Resssecion-like development in the EU market Slows down demand

33 Cost development Increased price may be needed. (to keep margins unchanged ) Major drivers: - Currency for imported goods/services - Cost of feed ingredients - Cost of A) Combating fish health issues B) Fulfilling to ever-stricter regulations

34 Fishmeal Peru - Anchoveta El Niño

35 Peru - Anchoveta El Niño Qouta not fully fished 2015E El Niño effect also into Spring-quota may also be notably reduced. Per date: Imarpe recommends 0-catch High juvenile share in trial-fisheries

36 USD/Tonn USD/Tonn Double effect on Feed price in Norway Fishmeal-price Peru, FAQ, fob Week 45: USD/Tonne Week 45: USD/Tonne Fishoil-price Peru, fob Week 45: USD/Tonne Week 45: USD/Tonne Source: Weekly Newsletter OIL WORLD, ISTA, Hamburg, Germany Source: Weekly Newsletter OIL WORLD, ISTA, Hamburg, Germany combined with. Feed price up by NOK 1,50 / kilo??

37 Final Comments. Short - Medium Long term outlook Production constraints -> Into a larger degree lead to: Supply growth not being able to keep pace with demand growth Implications: For the producer: - Far less downside risk Market wise - Increased revenue potential Finding & Adressing -best-paying markets For the processor/distributor: - Fiercer competition for raw material - Between - and from new geographical markets - From more and new Product segments / Utilizations

38 Thank you & Merry Christmas!!!

Scenarios and drivers - for High & Low salmon prices 2018

Scenarios and drivers - for High & Low salmon prices 2018 BRUSSELS SEMINAR Hotel Bloom 23rd Apr 2018 by Ragnar Nystøyl Atlantic Salmon Market Development All markets 2015 2016 16/15 2017 17/16 2018e 18/17