Asian Economic Growth and Productivity : Past Four Decades and The Next Two - Highlights of the APO Productivity Databook 2014 and Forecast

Transcription

1 Press Conference for Launching the APO Productivity Databook 214, hosted by Asian Productivity Organization (APO) and Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University, October 17, 214, 15:-1:. Asian Economic Growth and Productivity : Past Four Decades and The Next Two - Highlights of the APO Productivity Databook 214 and Forecast Koji NOMURA Chief Expert, APO Productivity Databook project Associate Professor, KEO, Keio University at Conference Room, Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University 1

2 Revision in Size of the Asian Economy -New estimates of PPP revised the sizes of regional economies. Regional GDP Sizes of Asia, EU, and the, Regional GDP sizes are revised in the Databook 214, mainly due to the revision of PPPs from the 25 ICP Round to the 211 ICP Round. By this revision, the relative size of Asian23 economy increased by 21% in 211. The Asian economy overtaken the economy in 1982 (revised from 199 in the past estimates). The Asian economy is 2.3 times larger than the economy in 212 (revised from 1.9 times in 211). Databook 213 (based on the 25 ICP Round) Asia (1) in Databook 214 (based on the 211 ICP Round) Asia (1) 1 8 in

3 Revision in Price Levels of Asian Countries -The exchange rates under-represent the relative purchasing power. Price Level Indices in 211 The new benchmark PPPs for most of the Asian countries are lower than the PPPs suggested by their extrapolated equivalents from the 25 ICP. This revision resulted in raising the relative sizes of the economy; e.g. Myanmar (47%), (45%), (3%), Lao PDR (35%), (34%), Nepal (31%), (31%), (24%), (1%), and so on. Impact of the revisions in the mature Asian economies (,, ) are minor, except (increased by 1%) ICP211 ICP25 (extrapolated for 211) Australia UAE Qatar Kuwait Turkey Brunei Bahrain Oman Saudi Arabia Nepal Lao PDR Myanmar Price Level Indices of GDP, 211 -Ratio of PPP to exchange rate (reference country=) 3

4 1 8 Labor Productivity Performances: Past Four Decades -Asia s productivity growth has been accelerated in the 199s and the 2s. Per-Worker Labor Productivity Growths, , 199 2, and Asia23 s ALP growth records 4.5% annually in 2 12, compared to 3.3% in 9 2 and 2.2% in ALP growths in,, and peaked in , then slowed down. ALP growths in,, and peaked in the 199s and were slowed down in Press Conference for Launching the APO Productivity Databook 214, hosted by Asian Productivity Organization and KEO, Keio University, October 17, 214. Myanmar,,, and changed gears in (average annual growth rate of GDP at constant basic prices per worker) -4.5 Myanmar East Asia CLMV Lao PDR Asia23 Asia29 South Asia ASEAN Turkey Nepal Australia EU27 Saudi Arabia Qatar GCC Brunei Kuwait UAE 4 Bahrain Oman

5 Labor Productivity Gap of Asian Countries -There is ample room for catch-up for developing Asian countries. Per-Hour Labor Productivity Gap in 212 Most Asian countries are clustered around s level in the 195s and early 197s (1 3 of s level today) There is ample room for catch-up and sound policies may enable them to increase a speed to catch up. What had achieved in the 21 years from 197 to 1991 (3 7 of s level today),, the, and managed to achieve in 15, 1, and 17 years, respectively (21) (15) (1) (17) Labor productivity gap in 212 relative to ('s level in 212=1.) ( ) Sources: For historical data of, the sources of GDP are Long-Term Economic Statistics by Ohkawa et al. (1974) during and the JSNA by ESRI, Cabinet Office of, during (including author adjustments). Hours worked data is based on KEO Database during During , the average hours worked per worker are assumed to be constant. For the labor productivity level of Asian countries in 212, it is based on the APO Productivity Database214 (ver.1). 5

6 1 9% 8% 7% % 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% -1% Capital Input and Economic Growth -Main engine of the economic growth is growth of capital input. Sources of Economic Growths in Asia and OECD Countries, % 9.9% Contributions of capital input are the most significant not only in developing Asian economies, but also in mature Asian and OECD countries. (see the right figure) Asian countries could gain much higher TFP growths: 3.9% in, 3.8% in, 3.1% in. 7.3% 7.2% % 1.% 5.7% 5.% 3.1%. 5.3% 5.2% % 3.8% 4.% (contribution of capital input to growth, ) 2.4% 2.4% 1.4% 4.3% 4.1% 4.1% % 2.2% 1.7% 1.2% 1.2% 1.4% 3.1% 4.1% 2.5% 5.% % 3. 2.% 2.1%.3% 2.1% 2.8% % 2.5% 2.1%.5% 2.2% 2.1% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.7% 1.2% 1.5%.1% 1.7% 1.% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4%. 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 3.3% 1.2%.9% % 2.4% 2.1% % 1.5% 1.2%.9%.4%.7%.5%.8%.%.9%.7%.7%.4%.8%.3%.4%.% 1.2% 1.2% 1.3% 1.5% % % % 1.5% 1. % 1.2%.7% 1..5% 1..8%.3%.%.4%.7%..3%.3%.4%.7%.% 1..3% -.1%.2%.1%.4%.8%.8%.% 1..%.2%.2%.4%.4% -.1% -.2% -.2%. -.2% -.1% -.4% -.4%.2% Press Conference for Launching the APO Productivity Databook 214, hosted by Asian Productivity Organization and KEO, Keio University, October 17, 214. Labor Capital TFP Output Sources: APO Productivity Database 214 (ver1) for APO member countries and and the ; OECD Stat for OECD countries (except and ). The ending years are different: Australia and Portugal are until 21 and the UK is until 29. Australia Ireland New Zealand Sweden Canada (GDP growth, 2 211) 1 9% 8% 7% % 5% 4% Australia 3% Ireland Canada United FinlandSweden New Zealand Kingdom 2% Switzerland Spain 1% Austria Belgium Netherlands Germany France Spain Finland Switzerland UK Austria Belgium Netherlands France Germany Denmark Italy

7 TFP growth -Asian countries could gain higher TFP growths in the 2s. TFP growths, , 199 2, and Improved in 12 countries from the 199s to the 2s: e.g. (-.1% 4.), (1.7% 2.9%), (-.1% 2.2%), (-.% 1.8%) Deteriorated: (5.1% 3.7%), (3.8% 1.5%), Sri Lanka(3.1% 2.2%) Role of TFP growth is more important in the growths of more economically developed countries (GDP growth, ) 1 9% 8% 7% % 5% 4% Australia 3% Switzerland Finland Ireland New Zealand United 2% Kingdom Sweden Spain Austria 1% France Germany Netherlands (TFP contribution to growth, 2 211)

8 Role of Manufacturing in TFP Growth -Positive correlation between TFP growth and manufacturing s share in GDP. TFP growth during and the value-added share of manufacturing in % % % % 1..5% Mnf-share in most Asian countries ranges 15 3 in 212. Higher share of manufacturing caused higher TFP growth. Large potential to take TFP s benefit in lower wage countries. (TFP growth, 2 212). 5% 1 15% 25% 3 35% (value added share of manufacturing, 212) (%) Nepal Nepal Sri Lanka Bahrain Bahrain Oman Oman Turkey Turkey Saudi Arabia UAE UAE Kuwait Kuwait Qatar Qatar EU27 EU27 Australia Australia Value added share of mnf, Average Wage per Worker 8(Employees), 212 using average exchange rate, (Thousands of dollars)

9 Production, Energy, and CO2 Emission -To produce 4, more than half of World CO2 is emitted in Asia. Shares of Asia in the World Production, Energy Consumption, and CO2 Emission, 211. In Asia, 4 of production, 43% of energy consumption, and 51% of CO2 emission. In, of production, 17% of energy consumption, and 1% of CO2 emission. In EU, of production, 13% of energy consumption, and 11% of CO2 emission. World Production (211) World Energy Consumption (211) World CO2 Emission (211) EU27 17% Others 21% 21% Asia29 37% Other Asia 3% ASIA 4 EU27 13% Others 27% 11% 17% 19% Asia 29 4 Other Asia 3% EU27 11% Asia 43% 9% Others 22% 1% Other Asia 3% 18% Asia 29 47% Asia 51% Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, April 214; IEA, CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion 213; IEA, Energy Balances of OECD Countries 213; IEA, Energy Balances of non-oecd Countries 213; APO, APO Productivity Databook

10 Energy Productivity -Improving energy productivity is required for sustainably expanding the Asian economy. Sources of CO2 emission growth in Output expansion is a main cause of expansion of CO2 emission, but many countries could improve energy productivity (energy saving). However, increases in carbon intensity of energy were worsened in,,, Lao PDR,.. It is required to promote diffusion of energy-saving and lowcarbon technologies, with improving labor productivity. 12% 1 8% % 4% 2% -2% -4%. 1.3% 3.8% % 2.4% 9.9% -3.% 8.7%.% 2.7% 5.7% -1.8% 2.% GDP Carbon intensity of energy Energy intensity of GDP (Inverse of Energy Productivity) CO2 1.7% 2.5%.4% 5.% 7.7% 7.3% % -3.4% -4.3% 5.2%.9% 4.7% -.9% 4.7% 5.7% 4.3% % 4.1% 3.% 7.2% -.8% % -1.9% -1.7% 3.% % 5.2% 5.4% 1.8% 3.5% 2.9% 3.5%.4%.8% 4.2% 4.1% -2.7% -3.% -% -1.9% 3.1% 5.% -5.9% 2.7% 2.7% 4.3% Labor Productivity in 211 ( dollars/hours worked) %.2% -.3% -1.4% -1.4% 2.3% 3.% % 1.7% -4.% 1.% -% -% 1.4%.1%.1% -.1% -.% -.7% -.9% 4.% 3.1%.4% 1.5%.7% 1.% 1.4% 1.3%.7% 1.3% -.4% -.5% -.5% -2.1% -1.8% -1.5% -1.8% -1.7% -1.% -4.7% Australia % EU27 Turkey Energy Productivity in 211 (Thousands of dollars/toe) -% Lao PDR Sources: IEA, CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion 213; IEA, Energy Balances of OECD Countries 213; IEA, Energy Balances of non-oecd Countries 213; APO, APO Productivity Databook 214. Turkey Nepal Australia EU27 1

11 Forecast: Number of Employment -Workers are expected to be increased by 18 million until 22 in Asia. Forecasted Number of Employment in 22 and 23 42% of 18 million will be expanded in, 1 in, and 7.5% in in million workers are expected to be increased until 23 in Asia. (million) % 32. Number in 22 Growth Rate (212-22) 23% 18% 18% 17% 1% 15% 14% 14% 1 9% 9% 17.2 % 4% 12. 4% % 3% 4.9 2% A Viet Nam Myanmar Nepal Lao PDR 8% % 25% 15% 1 5% -5% Asia23 9% % 13% 39.1 ASEAN 28.7 ASEAN 14% 1.4 CLMV 11% 1% 14% 12% 1 8% % 4% 2% (million) % % 31% % 3 4% 31% 3% 37% 21% 18% 1% 12% %.7.4 2%.3.1 A Number in 23 Growth Rate (212-23) Viet Nam Myanmar Nepal 41% Lao PDR 47% Sources: Author s estimates (based on UN, World Population Prospects: The 212 Revision; National Development Council, Population Projections for 214-2; APO, APO Productivity Databook 214; Asia-QALI Database 214 (under construction)). 29% -.3-3% Asia23 19% % 78.1 ASEAN 2% 57. ASEAN 28% 2.5 CLMV 22% 3 25% 15% 1 5% 11

12 Forecast: Real GDP Growth - The Asian economy is expected to continue to expand for the next two decades. Forecasted Economic Growths, and The growth rate will be slightly decreased from.4% in to.2% in In 22 3, it is expected to be slowed down to 5., mainly reflecting the slowdown of s growth.,, and are expected to accelerate their growths in and (actual) Nepal Viet Nam Lao PDR Myanmar A Asia23 ASEAN ASEAN CLMV Sources: Author s estimates (based on UN, World Population Prospects: The 212 Revision; National Development Council, Population Projections for 214-2; APO, APO Productivity Databook 214; Asia-QALI Database 214 (under construction)). 12

13 Forecast: Labor Productivity Growth -Strong improvement in labor productivity is expected to be sustained. Forecasted Growth Rate of Labor Productivity, and Asia s ALP will keep a similar speed of ALP growth (5.1%) in 212 2, compared to 5.3% in In 22 3, it is expected to be somewhat slowed down to 4.1%, from 5.1% in ASEAN is expected to sustain a sound growth of ALP even in (actual) Viet Nam Nepal Myanmar Lao PDR A Asia23 ASEAN ASEAN CLMV Sources: Author s estimates (based on UN, World Population Prospects: The 212 Revision; National Development Council, Population Projections for 214-2; APO, APO Productivity Databook 214; Asia-QALI Database 214 (under construction)). 13

14 Press Conference for Launching the APO Productivity Databook 214, hosted by Asian Productivity Organization (APO) and Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University, October 17, 214, 15:-1:. Thank you. For further information, please contact Koji NOMURA Keio University, Tokyo 14