Near-term growth: moderating, but no imminent hard landing. Vulnerabilities are growing along the current growth path
|
|
- Gwenda Moody
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 1
2 Near-term growth: moderating, but no imminent hard landing Vulnerabilities are growing along the current growth path financial and structural reform must be accelerated to contain risks and transition to sustainable growth path 2
3 3
4 2 China: Real GDP Growth (In percent) Staff estimates, q/qsaar 25 2 Inflation (In percent, year-on-year) PPI Headline Non-food 15 Year-on-year 15 Food 5 5 Official q/q saar Q Aug-13 4
5 Retail Sales (In percent, year-on-year growth) Real Fixed Asset Investment (In percent, year-on-year) Total SOE Non-SOE Infrastructure 5 2 Total (LHS) Consumer durables Automobiles Aug Aug-13 5
6 9 Trade Balance (In percent, 3mma, 3m-on-3m, saar*) Imports 9 9 Trade, FDI, and Foreign Exchange Intervention (In USD billion) Non-FDI capital inflows (estimated using intervention proxy) Goods trade balance FDI utilized Intervention proxy (based on bank settlement data) Exports Trade balance (USD bn) * Seasonally adjusted using X12 after averaging January and February data. -6 Aug July-13 6
7 7
8 Financial Sector Local Government Finances Real Estate Insufficient Domestic Rebalancing 8
9 Net Domestic Credit (Percent of GDP) Net Domestic Credit and GDP per Capita (Select economies, average) Spain New Zealand Italy China Greece Vietnam Malaysia Thailand Korea, Rep. Brazil Slovenia South Africa Hungary India Chile Poland Philippines Colombia Russian Federation Paraguay Peru Japan United Kingdom Germany Netherlands Iceland Sweden United States Finland GDP per capita (USD, thousand) Denmark China: Social Financing Outstanding (In percent of GDP*) Other Non-fin enterprise equity Net corporate bond financing Bank acceptance Trust loans Entrusted loans Loan in foreign currency Loan in local currency Total * in percent of 4Q rolling sum of quarterly GDP Q2 9
10 Ratio of EBIT to Interest Expense in Listed Chinese Companies 1 (In percent, ) th percentile Median 25th percentile th percentile Q1 Sources: WIND; and IMF staff calculations. 1/ Computed for a balanced panel of 1,2 (equally weighted) nonfinancial companies with data availability for the entire sample period. EBIT = earnings before interest and taxes Change in the Median Ratio of EBIT to Interest Expense by Sector in Listed Chinese Companies 1 (In percentage points, Q1) Change through 213Q Q Materials IT Utilities Industrials Real Consumer Energy Health Estate Care Sources: WIND; and IMF staff calculations. 1/ Computed for a balanced panel of 1,2 nonfinancial companies with data availability for the entire sample period. Median computed based on equal-weighting of companies
11 New channels are progress toward more market-based finance, but pose risks to financial stability Rapid credit growth points to potential asset quality problems Maturity transformation implies liquidity risks Problems still manageable (fiscal space, capital and provisioning), but reforms more urgent 11
12 Infrastructure Investment and Financing Sources (In percent of GDP) Financed by Budget Financed by GMFs Financed by Market Financing Total local government financing Augmented Deficits and Net Borrowings (In percent of GDP) Augmented net borrowing Net proceeds from land sales Augmented fiscal deficit General government deficit Source: IMF staff estimates Sources: CEIC, Chinabond, EUROSTAT, China Citic Press, China Trustee Association, NAO, and the Ministry of Finance, Zhang and Barnett (213). 12
13 Augmented Public Debt Level (In percent of GDP) LG: bank loans LG: corporate bonds LG: trust loans LG: issued by central government CG: issued by ministry of finance Foreign est Sources: CEIC, Chinabond, EUROSTAT, China Citic Press, China Trustee Association, NAO, and the Ministry of Finance; and IMF staff estimates. Debt Estimates (In percent of GDP) Shih, 29 DRC, 2 PBoC, 2 Audit Report, 2 Roubini, 211 Market Estimates: Staff, 212 Local government debt Central government debt Other contingent liabilities
14 16 12 Real Estate Investment (In percent of GDP) Real estate investment Residential real estate investment Residential Housing (Dec 26 =, sa) Investment growth (%, year-on-year; RHS) Price Floor space sold Dec-6 Dec-7 Dec-8 Dec-9 Dec- Dec-11 Dec-12 July-13 14
15 5 Consumption and Investment (In percent) Household Saving Rate (In percent) Household saving rate (flow of funds) 45 4 Private consumption (percent of GDP*) 4 Urban household saving rate GFCF (percent of GDP*) Consumption (contribution to growth, RHS) GCF (contribution to growth, RHS) 8 35 Rural household saving rate * percent of expenditure-based GDP. Sources: CEIC; and IMF staff estimates Rural household saving rate =(net income -living expenditure )/net income, percent; urban household saving rate = (disposable income-consumption)/disposable income, percent; household survey. 2 15
16 Gross fixed capital formation (percent of GDP) Private Consumption and Investment (Industrial countries and emerging markets; average, 26 12) China (212) China (27-12 average) China (27) Private consumption (percent of GDP) China: GDP Growth (Contributions by sector, percentage points) Tertiary Secondary Primary GDP Growth
17 Asia: Change in Gini Index, Last Two Decades 1 (in Gini points, since 199) China, urban ( 28, 35.2 ) China, rural ( 28, 39.4 ) Sri Lanka ( 26, 4.3 ) Hong Kong SAR ( 211, 53.7 ) Indonesia, rural ( 211, 34. ) Indonesia, urban ( 211, 42.2 ) Lao PDR ( 28, 36.7 ) Singapore ( 2, 48. ) India, urban ( 29, 39.3 ) Japan ( 2, 28.7 ) Bangladesh ( 2, 32.1 ) Korea ( 2, 34.1 ) Philippines ( 29, 43. ) India, rural ( 29, 3. ) Malaysia ( 29, 46.2 ) Vietnam ( 28, 35.6 ) Cambodia ( 28, 37.9 ) Nepal ( 2, 32.8 ) Thailand ( 29, 4. ) Sources: World Bank; national authorities and IMF staff calculations. 1 In parentheses, the latest available year and corresponding Gini coefficients Environmental and Natural Resource Degradation and Depletion (In percent of GNI) China India Brazil United States Source: World Bank and DRC China 23 report. Korea, Rep. of Japan Germany 17
18 2 15 Growth of Working-Age Population (In percent) Demographic Pressures (In millions) years of age Less than 15 and greater than 64 years of age Source: IMF staff estimates Sources: UN Population Database; and IMF staff estimates. 18
19 China: Contribution to Growth by Input (In percentage points) China Reform Payoffs: Potential Increase in Average TFP Growth 1 (In percentage points) 11 9 Human capital Physical capital accumulation TFP GDP growth Source: IMF staff estimates Service Sector Contestability Hukou Reform Source: IMF staff estimates. 1 Reforms envisage moving the national average of service sector employment share, contestability, and nonagricultural hukou share of population to the level of Shanghai in
20 Convergence Process of Per Capita GDP: China, Japan, Korea (PPP, relative to United States) GDP per capita relative to the United States Japan ( ) Korea ( ) China ( ) Number of years of expansion Source: IMF staff estimates. Baseline scenario (213-3) Rebalancing scenario Current model: relies on extensive growth factor accumulation and relocation of labor. Reform delays: vulnerabilities will increase as will the probability that China s convergence process stalls. Moving to high-income status: requires transitioning to a growth model more reliant on total factor productivity ( intensive growth). 2
21 21
22 Accelerate transition to a more balanced and sustainable growth path while maintaining adequate domestic growth and stability in a difficult external environment Likely entails slower growth as economy adjusts: a tradeoff worth making 22
23 Provide greater role to market forces Embed strong governance in lower-level state or state-related economic institutions Boost household incomes and consumption 23
24 Financial sector Local government finances Structural measures 24
25 Contain build up of risks in financial sector, local governments, and real estate Strong launch to new round of reforms If growth slows too much: use on-budget fiscal stimulus, in a way that promotes domestic rebalancing 25
26 Liberalize interest rates; Strengthen regulation and supervisory oversight; Establish a robust and transparent framework for resolving bad debts and troubled financial institutions; Move to using interest rates as the primary tool of monetary policy; Remove widespread implicit government guarantees 26
27 Gradually unwind off-budget and quasi-fiscal activity Strengthen management, transparency, and overall governance framework of local government finances Shift tax burden from regressive social contributions to more progressive and efficient forms of taxation 27
28 More market-based exchange rate determination Open-up markets to more domestic and foreign competition Raise resource prices and taxes Increase the dividends SOEs pay to the budget Gradual opening of the capital account 28
29 Near-term outlook: growth around 7 ½ percent Vulnerabilities are growing along the current growth path Financial and structural reforms should be accelerated to contain risks and transform the growth model 29
30 3
2017 Asia and Pacific Regional Economic Outlook:
217 Asia and Pacific Regional Economic Outlook: Preparing for Choppy Seas Ranil Salgado International Monetary Fund Asia and Pacific Department May 12, 217 OAP Seminar Key messages and roadmap The near-term
More informationChina: Beyond the headlines. Bill Maldonado HSBC Global Asset Management
China: Beyond the headlines Bill Maldonado HSBC Global Asset Management Are you a China Bull or a Bear? Source: Various news publications 2 Bear myth #1: Hard landing? GDP: Growth is slowing, but it s
More informationRUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES. Bank of Russia.
RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES Bank of Russia July 218 < -1% -1-9% -9-8% -8-7% -7-6% -6-5% -5-4% -4-3% -3-2% -2-1% -1 % 1% 1 2% 2 3% 3 4% 4 5% 5 6% 6 7% 7 8% 8 9% 9 1% 1 11% 11
More informationFiscal Policy and the Global Crisis
Fiscal Policy and the Global Crisis Presentation at Koҫ University, Istanbul Carlo Cottarelli Director IMF Fiscal Affairs Department June 9, 2009 1 Two fiscal questions What is the appropriate fiscal policy
More informationLatin America: the shadow of China
Latin America: the shadow of China Juan Ruiz BBVA Research Chief Economist for South America Latin America Outlook Second Quarter Madrid, 13 May Latin America Outlook / May Key messages 1 2 3 4 5 The global
More informationGlobal growth weakening as some risks materialise
OECD INTERIM ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Global growth weakening as some risks materialise 6 March 2019 Laurence Boone OECD Chief Economist http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/economic-outlook/ ECOSCOPE blog: oecdecoscope.wordpress.com
More informationThe Global Economic Crisis: Asia and the role of China Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University March 31, 2009
The Global Economic Crisis: Asia and the role of China Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University March 31, 29 Anoop Singh Asia and Pacific Department IMF 1 Five key questions
More informationCharting Myanmar s Economy
Charting Myanmar s Economy Designed to help executives catch up with the economy and incorporate macro impacts into company s planning. Annual subscription includes 2 semiannual issues published in June
More informationKey Economic Challenges in Japan and Asia. Changyong Rhee IMF Asia and Pacific Department February
Key Economic Challenges in Japan and Asia Changyong Rhee IMF Asia and Pacific Department February 2017 1 Global and Asia Outlook 2 Global activity strengthening, with rising dispersion and uncertainty
More informationRECENT EVOLUTION AND OUTLOOK OF THE MEXICAN ECONOMY BANCO DE MÉXICO OCTOBER 2003
OCTOBER 23 RECENT EVOLUTION AND OUTLOOK OF THE MEXICAN ECONOMY BANCO DE MÉXICO 2 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS OUTLOOK MEDIUM-TERM CHALLENGES 3 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS In tandem with the global economic cycle, the Mexican
More informationFinancial wealth of private households worldwide
Economic Research Financial wealth of private households worldwide Munich, October 217 Recovery in turbulent times Assets and liabilities of private households worldwide in EUR trillion and annualrate
More informationReporting practices for domestic and total debt securities
Last updated: 27 November 2017 Reporting practices for domestic and total debt securities While the BIS debt securities statistics are in principle harmonised with the recommendations in the Handbook on
More informationActuarial Supply & Demand. By i.e. muhanna. i.e. muhanna Page 1 of
By i.e. muhanna i.e. muhanna Page 1 of 8 040506 Additional Perspectives Measuring actuarial supply and demand in terms of GDP is indeed a valid basis for setting the actuarial density of a country and
More informationAsia and the Pacific: Economic Outlook. PFTAC Steering Committee Meeting March 27, 2018 Suva, Fiji
Asia and the Pacific: Economic Outlook PFTAC Steering Committee Meeting March 27, 2018 Suva, Fiji 1 Growth in the region remains strong... Growth Projections: World and Selected Asia (Percent change from
More informationAsia and the Pacific: Economic Outlook and Drivers
2018/FDM1/004 Session 2.1 Asia and the Pacific: Economic Outlook and Drivers Purpose: Information Submitted by: International Monetary Fund Finance and Central Bank Deputies Meeting Port Moresby, Papua
More informationThe Chilean economy: Institutional buildup and perspectives
The Chilean economy: Institutional buildup and perspectives Vittorio Corbo Governor 1 Outline 1. Introduction 2. Chile s economic reforms and institutional buildup 3. Performance of the Chilean economy
More informationOECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK (A EUROPEAN AND GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE) GIC Conference, London, 3 June, 2016 Christian Kastrop Director, Economics Department Key messages 1 The global economy is stuck in a low growth
More informationEconomic Stimulus Packages and Steel: A Summary
Economic Stimulus Packages and Steel: A Summary Steel Committee Meeting 8-9 June 2009 Sources of information on stimulus packages Questionnaire to Steel Committee members, full participants and observers
More informationChina s Challenges for Structural Transformation
The University of Tokyo China s Challenges for Structural Transformation Alfred Schipke IMF Senior Resident Representative for China June 2, 2016 1 Roadmap The Setting Credit and leverage State-owned enterprises
More informationCharting Brunei s Economy
Charting Brunei s Economy Designed to help executives catch up with the economy and incorporate macro impacts into company s planning. Annual subscription includes 2 semiannual issues published in June
More informationA short history of debt
A short history of debt In the words of the late Charles Kindleberger, debt/financial crises are a hardy perennial we have been here many times before. Over the past decade and a half the ratio of global
More informationCENTRAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF TURKEY
CENTRAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF TURKEY Growth and Financial System Durmuş YILMAZ Governor February, 211 1 Presentation Outline I. Recent Developments in the Turkish Economy II. III. Monetary Policy Policy
More informationIrish Economy and Growth Legal Framework for Growth and Jobs High Level Workshop, Sofia
Irish Economy and Growth Legal Framework for Growth and Jobs High Level Workshop, Sofia Diarmaid Smyth, Central Bank of Ireland 18 June 2015 Agenda 1 Background to Irish economic performance 2 Economic
More informationIndonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges
Indonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges Daniel A. Citrin Asia and Pacific Department, IMF April 3, 28 Global Financial Stability Map: risks have risen; conditions have deteriorated October 27
More informationChikahisa Sumi Director, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific International Monetary Fund
Chikahisa Sumi Director, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific International Monetary Fund (percent YOY) 8 6 Real GDP Growth ASSUMPTIONS A more gradual monetary policy normalization 4 2 21 211 212
More informationThe Importance of China and Asia to Your Portfolio and the Global Economy
The Importance of China and Asia to Your Portfolio and the Global Economy Christian Halvorsen October 2016 The subject matter contained herein has been derived from several sources believed to be reliable
More informationAsian Development Outlook 2016: Asia s Potential Growth
Asian Development Outlook 2016: Asia s Potential Growth Juzhong Zhuang Deputy Chief Economist Asian Development Bank Presentation at The views expressed in this document are those of the author and do
More informationDoes One Law Fit All? Cross-Country Evidence on Okun s Law
Does One Law Fit All? Cross-Country Evidence on Okun s Law Laurence Ball Johns Hopkins University Global Labor Markets Workshop Paris, September 1-2, 2016 1 What the paper does and why Provides estimates
More informationInternational Economic Outlook
International Monetary Fund September 9, 16 International Economic Outlook Alejandro Werner Director Western Hemisphere Department 1 Global and Regional Developments Relevant Issues Global and Regional
More informationEconomic Outlook January, 2012
Economic Outlook January, 2012 Summary Global economy Low global growth scenario, tail risks have become smaller. Risks (Debt Ceiling, elections in Italy, growth in Europe). Brazil Activity shows signs
More informationFinancing the MDG Gaps in the Asia-Pacific
Financing the MDG Gaps in the Asia-Pacific Dr. Nagesh Kumar Chief Economist, ESCAP And Director, ESCAP Subregional Office for South and South-West Asia, New Delhi 1 2 Outline Closing the poverty gap: interactions
More informationVietnam: Economic Context
Vietnam: Economic Context Parliamentary Network Visit to Vietnam March 5 8, 218 Hanoi, Vietnam Jonathan Dunn IMF Resident Representative International Monetary Fund Outline 2 IMF activities Economic achievements
More informationEconomic Outlook. Macro Research Itaú Unibanco
Economic Outlook Macro Research Itaú Unibanco June, 2013 Agenda Economia Global Heterogeneous growth: U.S. growing faster, Europe in recession. Deceleration in the emerging economies. The Fed signals a
More informationWorld Bank Thailand Economic Monitor November Press Launch November 4, 2009
World Bank Thailand Economic Monitor November 2009 Press Launch November 4, 2009 overview The Thai economy is rebounding from a rocky first half of 2009, but the medium-term outlook is uncertain. The Thai
More informationSan Francisco Retiree Health Care Trust Fund Education Materials on Public Equity
M E K E T A I N V E S T M E N T G R O U P 5796 ARMADA DRIVE SUITE 110 CARLSBAD CA 92008 760 795 3450 fax 760 795 3445 www.meketagroup.com The Global Equity Opportunity Set MSCI All Country World 1 Index
More informationMonthly Update of the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO)
Monthly Update of the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO) Special Edition ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) Singapore January 2018 This Monthly Update of the AREO was prepared by the Regional
More informationEmerging market equities
November 22, 2010 Emerging market equities Jean-Pierre Talon, FSA, FICA Introduction Focus of this presentation is to set out the rationale for a strategic bias toward emerging market equities Consider
More informationThe Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Bond Index Rules. PIMCO Global Advantage Government Bond Index Fine Specifications
PIMCO Global Advantage Government Bond Index Fine Specifications July 2017 1 Index Overview The PIMCO Global Advantage Government Bond Index history starts on December 31, 2003. The index has a level of
More informationDeveloping Asia s Short-Run Economic Outlook and Main Risks
Developing Asia s Short-Run Economic Outlook and Main Risks Dr. Donghyun Park, Asian Development Bank Workshop on Bond Market Development in Emerging East Asia Raffles Hotel Le Royal Phnom Penh, Cambodia,
More informationCorrigendum. OECD Pensions Outlook 2012 DOI: ISBN (print) ISBN (PDF) OECD 2012
OECD Pensions Outlook 2012 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/9789264169401-en ISBN 978-92-64-16939-5 (print) ISBN 978-92-64-16940-1 (PDF) OECD 2012 Corrigendum Page 21: Figure 1.1. Average annual real net investment
More informationFINANCE TO ENSURE ASIA S ECONOMIC GROWTH DR. RANEE JAYAMAHA CHAIRPERSON - HATTON NATIONAL BANK PLC
FINANCE TO ENSURE ASIA S ECONOMIC GROWTH DR. RANEE JAYAMAHA CHAIRPERSON - HATTON NATIONAL BANK PLC TABLE 1 : REAL GDP GROWTH OF SOUTHEAST ASIA, CHINA AND INDIA (ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE) PROJECTIONS ASEAN-6
More informationGlobal Economic Management and Asia s Responsibility Masahiro Kawai Asian Development Bank Institute
Global Economic Management and Asia s Responsibility Masahiro Kawai Asian Development Bank Institute PECC 18 th General Meeting Economic Crisis and Recovery: Roles for the Asia-Pacific Economies Washington,
More informationPutting China s Capital to Work The Value of Financial System Reform
McKinsey Global Institute Putting China s Capital to Work The Value of Financial System Reform Susan Lund, Senior Fellow McKinsey Global Institute October 25, 2006 KEY MESSAGES China has made steady advances
More informationEconomic Prospects: East Asia and South Asia
Economic Prospects: East Asia and South Asia Daniel Jeongdae Lee, UN ESCAP UN DESA EGM on the World Economy 2 October 216, Toronto Main messages Steady high growth >> quality of growth (jobs, poverty,
More informationPension Fund Investment and Regulation - An International Perspective and Implications for China s Pension System
Pension Fund Investment and Regulation - An International Perspective and Implications for China s Pension System Yu-Wei Hu, Fiona Stewart and Juan Yermo Financial Affairs Division OECD, Paris OECD/IOPS
More informationCharting Mexico s Economy
Charting Mexico s Economy Designed to help executives catch up with the economy and incorporate macro impacts into company s planning. Annual subscription includes 2 semiannual issues published in June
More informationB-GUIDE: Economic Outlook
Aug-12 Apr-13 Dec-13 Aug-14 Apr-15 Dec-15 Aug-16 Apr-17 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter 4 2017 4 January 2018 B-GUIDE: Economic Outlook The economy
More informationECONOMIC OUTLOOK. World Economy Autumn No. 33 (2017 Q3) KIEL INSTITUTE NO. 33 (2017 Q3)
KIEL INSTITUTE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK World Economy Autumn 7 Finalized September 6, 7 No. 33 (7 Q3) Klaus-Jürgen Gern, Philipp Hauber, Stefan Kooths, Galina Potjagailo, and Ulrich Stolzenburg Forecasting Center
More informationAsia and Pacific Economic Outlook
Asia and Pacific Economic Outlook Medium-Term Challenges in the Region: Implications of the New Mediocre OAP Economic Issues Seminar Ranil Salgado Assistant Director, Regional Studies Division Asia & Pacific
More informationHamid Rashid, Ph.D. Chief Global Economic Monitoring Unit Development Policy Analysis Division UNDESA, New York
Hamid Rashid, Ph.D. Chief Global Economic Monitoring Unit Development Policy Analysis Division UNDESA, New York 1 Global macroeconomic trends Major headwinds Risks and uncertainties Policy questions and
More informationSTOXX EMERGING MARKETS INDICES. UNDERSTANDA RULES-BA EMERGING MARK TRANSPARENT SIMPLE
STOXX Limited STOXX EMERGING MARKETS INDICES. EMERGING MARK RULES-BA TRANSPARENT UNDERSTANDA SIMPLE MARKET CLASSIF INTRODUCTION. Many investors are seeking to embrace emerging market investments, because
More information17 January 2019 Japan Laurence Boone OECD Chief Economist
Fiscal challenges and inclusive growth in ageing societies 17 January 219 Japan Laurence Boone OECD Chief Economist G2 populations are ageing rapidly Expected life expectancy at age 65 198 215 26 Japan
More informationInternational Monetary Fund. World Economic Outlook. Jörg Decressin Senior Advisor Research Department, IMF
International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook Jörg Decressin Senior Advisor Research Department, IMF IMF Presentation April 3, The recovery is solidifying but it will take some time before it significantly
More informationDeveloping Housing Finance Systems
Developing Housing Finance Systems Veronica Cacdac Warnock IIMB-IMF Conference on Housing Markets, Financial Stability and Growth December 11, 2014 Based on Warnock V and Warnock F (2012). Developing Housing
More informationNdiame Diop, Lead Economist & Economic Advisor World Bank Indonesia BKPM, December 16, 2013
Ndiame Diop, Lead Economist & Economic Advisor World Bank Indonesia BKPM, December 16, 2013 Overview of recent economic developments Framing the policy choices for the current account and growth in 2014
More informationFiscal policy for inclusive growth in Asia
Fiscal policy for inclusive growth in Asia Dr. Donghyun Park, Principal Economist Economics and Research Department, Asian Development Bank PRI-IMF-ADBI Tokyo Fiscal Forum on Fiscal Policy toward Long-Term
More informationComputing Tax Rates for Economic Modeling: A Global Dataset Approach. Angelo Gurgel, Gilbert Metcalf, Nicolas Osouf, and John Reilly
Computing Tax Rates for Economic Modeling: A Global Dataset Approach Angelo Gurgel, Gilbert Metcalf, Nicolas Osouf, and John Reilly This note describes a procedure to calculate national tax rates on capital
More informationFinancing for Development in Asia and the Pacific: Opportunities and Challenges
Financing for Development in Asia and the Pacific: Opportunities and Challenges Dr. Shamshad Akhtar, Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations & Executive Secretary of The Economic and Social Commission
More informationQuarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War
Foregin Direct Investment (Billion USD) China U.S. Asia World Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter 3 2018 on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War Thai Economy: Thai
More informationRecent Recent Developments 0
Recent Developments 0 Global activity has slowed noticeably World Trade (annualized percent change of three month moving average over previous three month moving average) Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
More informationGuide to Treatment of Withholding Tax Rates. January 2018
Guide to Treatment of Withholding Tax Rates Contents 1. Introduction 1 1.1. Aims of the Guide 1 1.2. Withholding Tax Definition 1 1.3. Double Taxation Treaties 1 1.4. Information Sources 1 1.5. Guide Upkeep
More informationStronger growth, but risks loom large
OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Stronger growth, but risks loom large Ángel Gurría OECD Secretary-General Álvaro S. Pereira OECD Chief Economist ad interim Paris, 3 May Global growth will be around 4% Investment
More informationMongolia Selected Macroeconomic Indicators September 19, 2013
Mongolia Selected Macroeconomic Indicators September 19, 13 For further information, please contact: SSelenge@imf.org Jan-8 May-8 Sep-8 Jan-9 May-9 Sep-9 Jan-1 May-1 Sep-1 May-11 Sep-11 May-1 Sep-1 May-13
More informationLinking Education for Eurostat- OECD Countries to Other ICP Regions
International Comparison Program [05.01] Linking Education for Eurostat- OECD Countries to Other ICP Regions Francette Koechlin and Paulus Konijn 8 th Technical Advisory Group Meeting May 20-21, 2013 Washington
More informationHow Global Aging Will Transform the Economy, Society, and Geopolitical Order of the 21 st Century
How Global Aging Will Transform the Economy, Society, and Geopolitical Order of the 21 st Century Richard Jackson President Global Aging Institute LONGEVITY 13 Taipei September 21, 2017 The world stands
More informationThe Challenge of Public Pension Reform in Advanced and Emerging Economies
The Challenge of Public Pension Reform in Advanced and Emerging Economies Mauricio Soto Fiscal Affairs Department International Monetary Fund January 212 The views expressed herein are those of the author
More informationAsia Key Economic and Financial Indicators 13-Jul-17
Asia Key Economic and Financial Indicators -Jul-7 ASEAN Brunei (BN) Cambodia (KH) Indonesia () Laos (LA) Malaysia () Myanmar (MM) Philippines () Singapore () Thailand () Vietnam () East Asia China (CN)
More informationA. Definitions and sources of data
Poland A. Definitions and sources of data Data on foreign direct investment (FDI) in Poland are reported by the National Bank of Poland (NBP), the Polish Agency for Foreign Investment (PAIZ) and the Central
More informationAppendix. Table S1: Construct Validity Tests for StateHist
Appendix Table S1: Construct Validity Tests for StateHist (5) (6) Roads Water Hospitals Doctors Mort5 LifeExp GDP/cap 60 4.24 6.72** 0.53* 0.67** 24.37** 6.97** (2.73) (1.59) (0.22) (0.09) (4.72) (0.85)
More informationFrontier Markets and a teaser of what is to come. Peter Elam Håkansson, Chairman and Partner
Frontier Markets and a teaser of what is to come Peter Elam Håkansson, Chairman and Partner The Frontier Markets Have the good old Emerging Markets lost their appeal? We remain convinced that Emerging
More informationHousehold Debt and Business Cycles Worldwide Out-of-sample results based on IMF s new Global Debt Database
Household Debt and Business Cycles Worldwide Out-of-sample results based on IMF s new Global Debt Database Atif Mian Princeton University and NBER Amir Sufi University of Chicago Booth School of Business
More informationTrade and Development Board Sixty-first session. Geneva, September 2014
UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT Trade and Development Board Sixty-first session Geneva, 15 26 September 2014 Item 3: High-level segment Tackling inequality through trade and development:
More informationOverview of Demographic Dividend. Andrew Mason Demographic Dividend Working Group Barcelona, Spain June 5 8, 2013
Overview of Demographic Dividend Andrew Mason Demographic Dividend Working Group Barcelona, Spain June 5 8, 2013 First Demographic Dividend At an early stage of [demographic] transition, fertility rates
More informationGROWTH CONTRIBUTING FUTURE PROSPECTS. Summary and Selected Figures and Tables FACTORS TO CHINA ROWTH, AND ITS
CONTRIBUTING FACTORS TO CHINA HINA S HIGH GROWTH ROWTH, AND ITS FUTURE PROSPECTS Summary and Selected Figures and Tables Directorate-General for Economic Assessment and Policy Analysis Cabinet Office,
More informationQuarterly Investment Update First Quarter 2017
Quarterly Investment Update First Quarter 2017 Market Update: A Quarter in Review March 31, 2017 CANADIAN STOCKS INTERNATIONAL STOCKS Large Cap Small Cap Growth Value Large Cap Small Cap Growth Value Emerging
More informationChallenges to the International Monetary System: Rebalancing Currencies, Institutions, and Rates
Challenges to the International Monetary System: Rebalancing Currencies, Institutions, and Rates Takatoshi Kato Deputy Managing Director International Monetary Fund September 3, 27 1 9 Growth has been
More informationEconomic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2017 Governance and Fiscal Management
Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 217 Governance and Fiscal Management Launch and Panel Discussion on the UN Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 217: Korean Perspective
More informationGrowth has peaked amidst escalating risks
OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Growth has peaked amidst escalating risks 1 November 18 Ángel Gurría OECD Secretary-General Laurence Boone OECD Chief Economist http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/economic-outlook/ ECOSCOPE
More informationReflections on the Global Economic Outlook
Reflections on the Global Economic Outlook A presentation to the ACI-ICA World Congress October 2018 Mahmoud Mohieldin Senior Vice President World Bank Group @wbg2030 worldbank.org/sdgs Global Megatrends
More informationInternet Appendix: Government Debt and Corporate Leverage: International Evidence
Internet Appendix: Government Debt and Corporate Leverage: International Evidence Irem Demirci, Jennifer Huang, and Clemens Sialm September 3, 2018 1 Table A1: Variable Definitions This table details the
More informationKey findings: Economic Outlook
Key findings: Economic Outlook Asia s growth is declining to 6% in 2013 from 6.1% in 2012 before picking up to 6.2% in 2014 The two giants growth is moderating despite signs of advanced economies recovery
More informationMongolia Selected Macroeconomic Indicators December 18, 2013
Mongolia Selected Macroeconomic Indicators December 18, 213 For further information, please contact: SSelenge@imf.org 2 2 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 212 213 Q1 Q2 Q3 Oct. Nov. First 11 months Total US$-value
More informationEconomic Outlook and Risks in the APEC Region
2018/FMM/002 Agenda Item: 1.1 Economic Outlook and Risks in the APEC Region Purpose: Information Submitted by: ADB 25th Finance Ministers Meeting Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea 17 October 2018 Economic
More information1Methodological and Statistical Appendix
chapter 1Methodological and Statistical Appendix This appendix comprises five sections: Data and Conventions provides a general description of the data and of the conventions used for calculating economy
More informationIndonesia Economic Quarterly, July 2014 Hard choices. Ndiamé Diop Lead Economist
Indonesia Economic Quarterly, July 214 Hard choices Ndiamé Diop Lead Economist The new administration will face major near-term challenges Fiscal pressures Economic growth Poverty and inequality reduction
More informationAdvanced and Emerging Economies Two speed Recovery
Advanced and Emerging Economies Two speed Recovery 23 November 2 Bauhinia Foundation Research Centre Masaaki Shirakawa Governor of the Bank of Japan Slide 1 Japan s Silver Yen and Hong Kong s Silver Yuan
More informationGlobal Business Barometer April 2008
Global Business Barometer April 2008 The Global Business Barometer is a quarterly business-confidence index, conducted for The Economist by the Economist Intelligence Unit What are your expectations of
More informationAsia Key Economic and Financial Indicators 20-Oct-16
Asia Key Economic and Financial Indicators -Oct- ASEAN Brunei (BN) Cambodia (KH) Indonesia () Laos (LA) Malaysia () Myanmar (MM) Philippines () Singapore () Thailand () Vietnam () East Asia China (CN)
More informationThe Medium to Long-Term Economic Outlook for Asia
The Medium to Long-Term Economic Outlook for Asia February 3, 2017 Yoko Takeda Mitsubishi Research Institute Copyright (C) Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc. Issues for discussion for Asian Economy Copyright
More informationFocus on: Hong Kong. International Business Report 2011 Economy focus series
Focus on: Hong Kong International Business Report 11 Economy focus series The recovery The economy rebounded strongly in, posting growth of 6.8 per cent as recovering global demand boosted exports. Prospects
More informationECONOMIC OUTLOOK. World Economy Winter No. 37 (2017 Q4) KIEL INSTITUTE NO. 37 (2017 Q4)
NO. 7 (7 Q) KIEL INSTITUTE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK World Economy Winter 7 Finalized December, 7 No. 7 (7 Q) Klaus-Jürgen Gern, Philipp Hauber, Stefan Kooths, and Ulrich Stolzenburg Forecasting Center NO. 7 (7
More informationCNH and China QFII market: Opportunities and Challenges A Fund Custodian and Administrator's Perspective"
CNH and China QFII market: Opportunities and Challenges A Fund Custodian and Administrator's Perspective" Eric Chow HSBC Securities Services June 2011 2 Agenda About HSBC Securities Services (HSS) Introducing
More informationEconomic Outlook. EAGLEs
Economic Outlook EAGLEs Annual Report 212 Economic Analysis The group of emerging countries which compose the EAGLEs and the Nest (our watch list of countries which could eventually become an EAGLE) is
More informationTotal Imports by Volume (Gallons per Country)
5/4/2016 Imports by Volume (Gallons per Country) YTD YTD Country 03/2015 03/2016 % Change 2015 2016 % Change MEXICO 53,821,885 60,813,992 13.0 % 143,313,133 167,568,280 16.9 % NETHERLANDS 11,031,990 12,362,256
More informationDIVERSIFICATION. Diversification
Diversification Helps you capture what global markets offer Reduces risks that have no expected return May prevent you from missing opportunity Smooths out some of the bumps Helps take the guesswork out
More informationTotal Imports by Volume (Gallons per Country)
2/6/2018 Imports by Volume (Gallons per Country) YTD YTD Country 12/2016 12/2017 % Change 2016 2017 % Change MEXICO 50,839,282 54,169,734 6.6 % 682,281,387 712,020,884 4.4 % NETHERLANDS 10,630,799 11,037,475
More informationBuilding the expert platform for Asian investments. asiafundmanagers.com
Building the expert platform for Asian investments 1 There is a gap of 9 trn. USD 9 21 trn. USD if allocated to world GDP** 12trn. USD today* trn. USD * 17,29 percent of world equity market cap (MSCI,
More informationWorld Economic Outlook Central Europe and Baltic Countries
World Economic Outlook Central Europe and Baltic Countries Presentation by Susan Schadler and Christoph Rosenberg September 5 World growth returns to trend. (World real GDP growth, annual percent change)
More informationThe China Opportunity in the Post-Crisis Era
The China Opportunity in the Post-Crisis Era Louis Cheung Group President May 2010 P.0 May, 2010 Summary Ⅰ THE CHINA GROWTH STORY Despite recent volatility, the Chinese market remains very attractive Fundamentals
More informationThree-speed recovery. GDP growth. Percent Emerging and developing economies. World
Three-speed recovery GDP growth Percent 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Source: IMF WEO; Milken Institute. Emerging and developing economies Advanced economies World Output is still below
More information