Economic Performance. Lessons from the past and a guide for the future Björn Rúnar Guðmundson, Director
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1 Economic Performance Lessons from the past and a guide for the future Björn Rúnar Guðmundson, Director
2 Analysis of economic performance Capital and labour: The raw ingredients in economic development However, increased productivity and advances are the key factors behind economic growth Industrial policy objectives How has the development of investment and labor been in different sectors? How has productivity evolved? Has the macroeconomic environment offered increased productivity and growth? What are the next steps?
3 Industrial policy objectives Industrial policy in the two decades prior to the banking crisis has been characterised by very clear objectives Strengthens the fisheries sector by a system of freely tradable fishing quotas Build up of a second pillar for export revenue by harnessing unused energy potential. This has led to major investment projects in aluminium and energy sectors Support for a rapid growth of financial services sector Strong support for the tourist sector This policy has been driven and supported by Global liberalisation trend with a strong political backup in Iceland A consensus among social partners
4 Economic performance Measured by real GDP growth Iceland was doing exceptionally well 10% 8% 6% Real GDP growth % GDP per capita on a PPP adjusted basis in 2008 was on the top of the list 2% 0% -2% -4% The fiscal position was also exceptionally good with close to zero net public debt The unemployment rate was among the lowest in the world and labour participation rates were very high Norway United States Netherlands Iceland Denmark Sweden Finland United Kingdom Germany Japan EU 15 France GDP per Capital (USD PPP adjusted) ,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
5 Investments During the last two decades investment has boomed in certain sectors Manufacturing and energy Huge buildup of smelter capacity Nine times more aluminium export than in 1990 Large energy project Construction and real estate Easy credit in the real estate market Spillover effect from the energy sector Financial services and other services Tremendous growh in the banking sector Too big for the economy and usustainable in the long-term Other business and services Annual increase in investment divided by industry sectors Manufacturing and Energy Other businesses and services Construction and Real Estate Financial services Public sector Commerce, Hotel and Catering Fishery and Agriculture Transport and Communications Source: Statistics Iceland -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Other sectors have contracted: Fisheries and agriculture Transport and communications
6 Labour development Jobs have mainly been created in the service-related (labour intensive) sectors: Financial services Other businesses and services Commerce, hotel and catering The manufacturing and energy sectors on the other hand are capital intensive with high technology content. Therefore job creation is moderate Manufacturing and Energy Other business and services Construction and Real Estate Annual increase in number of jobs divided by industry sectors Financial services Public sector Commerce, Hotel and Catering Fishery and Agriculture Transport and Communications Fisheries and acriculture has been shrinking Source: Statistics Iceland -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4%
7 Productivity Having looked at capital and labour in different sectors, how has productivity in Iceland evolved? Iceland has not been among highproductivity countries in Europe Such as Norway, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, Sweden, Finland Annual working hours per worker is also quite high Similar to Japan, Italy, Poland and Portugal To be able to increase production and reduce working hours at the same time, Iceland needs to increase productivity GDP per Hour worke ed (US$ EKS PPP) Average productivity and working hours Norway Netherlands Denmark Belgium Sweden Luxembourg Iceland Poland United States Italy Portugal Ireland Japan Malta Source: The Conference Board Total Economy Database Finland Estonia Hungary Annual hours per worker (Thousands)
8 Productivity growth Annual average growth of labour productivity during is slightly below other Western- European countries Also the growth has been volatile in Iceland the last two decades, which is reflected in high standard deviation of productivity growth In general a catch-up effect seems to emerge where the fast-growing countries in Europe are those with low productivity: Poland, Estonia, Hungary Average annual grow wth in labor productivity 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Japan Spain Finland Average productivity growth and stability Poland Ireland UnitedKingdom Hungary Sweden Norway Portugal Switzerland Iceland Estonia 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Source: The Conference Board Total Economy Database Standard deviation
9 Macroeconomic environment: Inflation Price instability Persistent inflation The icelandic krona is highly volatile carry-trade currency with strong spill over effect to domestic prices Inflation-targeting as a monetary policy model has not been very successful deviation Standard Sweden Japan Price instability Germany Czech republic Iceland Poland Slovakia Hungary Mexico Source: OECD Average annual inflation
10 Macroeconomic environment: Real exchange rate The real exchange rate has fluctuated Has indirect impact on domestic prices Increases uncertainty in the business environment Real exchange rate The current account deficit has been in correlation with the real exchange rate Source: Central Bank of Iceland Currently the low real exchange rate improves the competitiveness of the export sector After a decade of strong real exchange rate 10% 5% Balance on goods vs. real exchange rate Quarterly data % -5% -10% -15% Source: Central Bank of Iceland
11 Macroeconomic environment: Current account deficit Continuous current account deficit in and The current account deficit can be explained by: Strong real exchange rate -10% increased purchasing power leading to -15% higher volume of imported goods and -20% higher consumption -25% created difficult conditions for the export sectors High investment in energy and construction sectors Low savings rate 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% Current account decomposition % Source: Central Bank of Iceland Balance on income Balance on goods Balance on services Current account (without DMBs undergoing winding-up proceedings) Current account
12 Lessons for the future It is not sufficient to have aboundant sources of growth. Sustainability of high living standards is just as important Stable macroeconomic environment is a pre-condition for sustaining success Policies should also focus on supportive infrastructure in order to enhance productivity Macro, micro and social policies need to work hand in hand Sector specific policies are less important
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