April 2015 Fiscal Monitor

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1 International Monetary Fund April 17, 2015 April 2015 Fiscal Monitor Now is the Time: Fiscal Policies for Sustainable Growth Xavier Debrun Deputy Chief, Fiscal Policy and Surveillance, Fiscal Affairs Department

2 Outline Highlights from recent fiscal developments and risks Selected policy implications Stabilize more, grow faster 1

3 Germany Austria Finland Netherlands Ireland France Euro Area Portugal Belgium Italy Spain Euro area: Expected funding cost savings from QE are significant 1.0 Selected Euro Area Countries: Estimates of Funding Cost Savings From QE Activation by the ECB, (percent of GDP) 12 Selected Countries: Nominal 10-Year Bond Yields, (percent) Portugal Spain United Kingdom United States 0.0 Germany Japan 0 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 2

4 Debt (percent of GDP) Debt (percent of GDP) Overall balance (percent of GDP) Overall balance (percent of GDP) EMs: Projected deterioration in fiscal position driven by oil exporters 6 4 Oil Exporters Overall Balance (percent of GDP) 6 4 Oil Importers 2 Oct Oct Current FM -4-6 Current FM Oil Exporters Debt (percent of GDP) 60 Oil Importers Current FM 50 Current FM 15 Oct Oct

5 Colombia Vietnam Indonesia Cameroon Russia Ecuador Mexico Bolivia Iran Kazakhstan Venezuela Yemen Gabon Qatar Algeria Chad Nigeria United Arab Emirates Congo, Republic of Azerbaijan Angola Saudi Arabia Libya Timor-Leste Brunei Darussalam Bahrain Oman Equatorial Guinea Iraq Kuwait Lower oil prices create fiscal challenges in oil exporting economies Resource Revenue (percent of total government revenue; 2013 or latest available data) EMMIEs LIDCS

6 Angola Oman Brunei Darussalam United Arab Emirates Qatar Angola Equatorial Guinea Libya Colombia Gabon Ecuador Yemen Bolivia Azerbaijan Turkmenistan Saudi Arabia Bahrain Congo, Republic of Iraq Congo, Republic of Chad Ghana Yemen Algeria Kazakhstan Qatar Iran Nigeria Ecuador Venezuela Ghana Colombia Russia Sudan Niger Exchange rate depreciation could offset some of the revenue losses, but some have foreign-currency denominated government debt Projected Change in Commodity Revenues between 2014 and 2015 (percent of 2014 total revenues) Public External Debt, 2014 (percent of GDP) Fixed, pegged, or managed exchange rate regime Float exchange rate regime Experienced currency devaluation/depreciation since June

7 Spillovers from oil exporters: a risk for some developing economies Decline in Oil imports and Petrocaribe Exposure (percentage points of GDP) 6,000 Aid Flows from Kuwait, Russia, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, 2013 (Millions of USD) 5, % of GDP 0.7 % of GDP 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, % of GDP 0 Africa Middle East South and Central Asia 8

8 Other sources of risks Risks to debt dynamics: Debt dynamics in AEs sensitive to real interest and growth shocks Lower growth prospects and lower commodity prices raise challenges in many EMs and LIDCs Geopolitical risks and policy uncertainty: Disruptions in trade and financial transaction (Ukraine/Russia, Middle East, parts of Africa). Policy uncertainty (Greece): reemergence of sovereign-bank feedback loops? Financial market volatility: Capital outflows from EMs (investors deleveraging or flight to quality), Surprises related to US monetary normalization (see GFSR) 17

9 Selected policy implications

10 Energy Subsidies Are Large in All Regions S.S. Africa, 42 By Region Energy Subsidies, 2011 (billions of US dollars) By Product MENA, 382 Advanced, 642 Coal, 709 Petroleum products, 728 LAC, 109 E.D. Asia, 575 CEE-CIS, 241 Electricity, 179 Natural gas, 376 Source: B. Clements and others, 2013, Energy Subsidy Reform: Lessons and Implications. Note: Estimates draw on IEA World Energy Outlook 2012; and data from OECD and World Bank. 9

11 Flexible, growth-friendly fiscal policy No additional fiscal consolidation if growth disappoints: Let automatic stabilizers play: see evidence in chapter 2. Condition: credibility is not at risk. Countries with fiscal space could boost medium-term growth: Infrastructure investment: can boost short- and medium-term growth (October 14 WEO) But this must be done efficiently! What if no/little space? Work on composition of spending and taxes, EU-level initiatives, Strengthen fiscal frameworks in support on medium-term fiscal plans: confidence and credibility. 17

12 Chapter 2 Stabilize more, grow faster

13 Highlights of chapter 2 Comprehensive study: broad sample (85 countries, ) Fiscal policy is, on average, stabilizing: More in advanced economies, more in bad times, more at low frequency. Automatic stabilizers (AS) are key: Contribute about 2/3 in advanced economies and 1/3 in developing economies. Main determinants of AS: government size and social transfers. Dividends of fiscal stabilization are significant: Higher and less volatile growth. Internalize the role of automatic stabilizers Let AS play freely avoid procyclicality. Internalize efficiency-stabilization trade-off costs of large AS

14 Number of countries Number of countries Fiscal stabilization is greater in advanced economies 12 Advanced Economies Distribution of Fiscal Stabilization Coefficients 35 Emerging Market and Developing Economies 10 Median coefficient (0.7) 30 Median coefficient (0.3) Stabilization coefficient Insignificant Significant Stabilization coefficient Insignificant Significant 14

15 Fiscal stabilization is stronger during recessions Fiscal Stabilization over the Cycle 0.6 Overall Stabilization 0.6 Automatic Stabilizers 0.5 ** ** 0.3 *** *** *** *** AEs EMDEs Recessions -0.4 Expansions Sources: European Commission; Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development; and IMF staff estimates. Note: Recessions and expansions are defined using an approach equivalent to the smooth transition autoregressive model developed by Granger and Terasvirta (1993). The figure displays ordinary least squares regressions with country and time fixed effects and robust standard errors. To reduce heterogeneity in the panel, commodity exporters have been excluded. AEs = advanced economies; EMDEs = emerging market and developing economies. ** p < 0.05; *** p < AEs EMDEs

16 Response to transitory ( demand ) shocks seems stronger Advanced Economies: Fiscal Stabilization and the Nature of Shocks (percent of GDP) Overall Demand disturbances Real GDP growth Output gap Blanchard-Quah decomposition Business cycle Sources: European Commission; Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development; and IMF staff estimates. Note: The bars represent simple averages of country-specific point estimates.

17 Impact on the stabilization coefficient Automatic stabilizers on the spending side boost fiscal stabilization a little 0.05 Advanced Economies: Determinants of Fiscal Stabilization (impact of a 10 percent increase in selected outlays on stabilization coefficients) 0.04 *** *** 0.03 ** 0.02 ** 0.01 ** *** 0.00 Family and child support Unemployment benefits Incapacity benefits Total expenditure Social expenditure Health Sources: European Commission; International Country Risk Guide; Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development; and IMF staff estimates. Note: Figure estimates reflect panel weighted least squares, with weights inversely proportional to the estimation error of the stabilization coefficients. Additional conditioning variables include output volatility, openness, GDP per capita, and the government debt-to-gdp ratio. Country and time fixed effects are also included. ** p < 0.05; *** p < 0.01.

18 Impact on output volatility Fiscal stabilization appears effective in reducing output volatility, especially in advanced economies 2 Impact of Fiscal Stabilization and Government Size on Output Volatility (percent) Fiscal stabilization Government size *** *** *** -2 ** -3 Advanced economies Emerging market and developing economies Sources: Mauro and others 2013; World Bank; and IMF staff estimates. Note: Estimates are based on Arellano-Bond (1991) system generalized method of moments. Output volatility is defined as the standard deviation of the real GDP growth rate over 5-year fixed windows. Emerging market and developing economies include emerging market and middle-income economies as well as low-income developing countries. ** p < 0.05; *** p < 0.01.

19 Public debt But countries tend to suppress their impact in good times, leading to significant public debt buildup 90 Asymmetric Stabilization: Unpleasant Public Debt Arithmetic (percent of GDP) Revenue windfalls half spent Symmetric stabilization t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5 t+6 t+7 t+8 t+9 t+10 t+11 t+12 t+13 t+14 t+15 t+16 t+17 t+18 t+19 t+20 18

20 Relative impact on automatic stabilizers' effectiveness Automatic stabilizers play more freely in countries with fiscal rules and access to finance Advanced Economies: Factors that Boost the Effectiveness of Automatic Stabilizers 1.4 *** 1.2 ** 1.0 ** Fiscal rule Trade openness (10 percentage point increase) Access to financing (1 standard deviation improvement) Sources: IMF Fiscal Rules database; World Bank; and IMF staff estimates. Note: Figure estimates use weighted least squares, with weights inversely proportional to the estimation error of the effectiveness coefficients. The number on the vertical axis is the ratio of the estimated impact of the scenario specified on the horizontal axis to the average effectiveness coefficient. For a list of advanced economies, see Economy Groupings in the Methodological and Statistical Appendix. ** p < 0.05; *** p < 0.01.

21 Boosting the effectiveness of automatic stabilizers Tax deductions Cyclical investment tax deduction Cyclical bonus depreciation Cyclical loss-carry forward Cyclical property tax Expenditure Automatic transfers to local governments Cyclical adjustment of unemployment benefits 14

22 Output volatility (percent) Real GDP growth rate (percent) Fiscal stabilization promotes macro stability and growth Fiscal Stabilization, Output Volatility, and Growth: Cross-Country Correlations, Fiscal Stabilization Coefficient versus Output Volatility Significant coefficients Insignificant coefficients 8 7 Fiscal Stabilization Coefficient versus Real GDP Growth Correlation = Fiscal stabilization coefficient Fiscal stabilization coefficient 15

23 Increase in real GDP per capita growth rate (percent) Fiscal stabilization is positively correlated with real GDP growth and higher fiscal stabilization means more growth Fiscal Stabilization and Medium-Term Growth *** Advanced economies Emerging market and developing economies * Fiscal stabilization coefficient Government size Sources: European Commission; Mauro and others 2013; Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development; and IMF staff estimates. Note: Emerging market and developing economies include emerging market and middle-income economies as well as low-income developing countries. For a list of countries in each group, see Economy Groupings in the Methodological and Statistical Appendix. * p < 0.10; *** p < 0.01.

24 Policy implications Make fiscal policy more stabilizing through the cycle: Address shortcomings of discretionary stabilization (cyclical unemployment benefits, easyto-implement capital/maintenance spending) Do not spend revenue windfalls from above-average growth Boost automatic stabilizers? Yes but beware of the side effects (government size) Options to boost stabilizers at constant government size Sound fiscal institutions help: Credible long-term anchor; no financing constraints Constraint spending in good times Provide short-term flexibility in the face of bad shocks (structural fiscal indicators, welldesigned escape clauses) 17

25 Concluding remarks Risks to public finances are significant Debt dynamics in AEs sensitive to real interest and growth shocks Lower growth prospects and lower commodity prices raise challenges in many EMs and LIDCs Policy messages: Seize the moment to get energy prices right (end subsidies, tax carbon) If possible, use fiscal flexibly in response to risks and medium-term challenges Strengthening fiscal frameworks can help: Manage fiscal risks, including uncertainty related to commodity prices Promote fiscal stabilization through the cycle and deliver a growth dividend Anchor fiscal policy and support debt sustainability 17

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