Daily Macro Brief. Tuesday 29 August 2017 Kjersti Haugland, DNB Markets

Transcription

1 Daily Macro Brief Tuesday 29 August 217 Kjersti Haugland, DNB Markets

2 Overview Key events today USA: Consumer confidence (from Conference Board) is expected to fall somewhat to 12. in August. USA: Case-Shiller home price growth is expected unchanged at 5.7% y/y in June. USA: Feds Evans (voting member) to speak Germany: Consumer confidence for September is expected to be almost unchanged from the previous month. France: GDP for Q2 is expected to be unrevised from the previous estimate, at.5% q/q. See the attached calendar for details Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 2

3 Overview Key events since last report EMU: Money supply growth (M3) fell back in July due to slower growth for mortgages, while consumer credit accelerated. Sweden: Retail sales rose more than expected in July, indicating that the strong trend in private consumption continues. Japan: Unemployment remained low and employment growth strong in July, boding well for consumption growth going forward, even though wage growth remains low. For details on market developments, see here See the attached calendar for other key figures Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 3

4 EMU: Money growth fell back in July Money supply (M3) up 4.5% y/y in July, below expected 4.9% and down from 5.% the month before. Loans to housing down to 3.1% y/y, loans to enterprises unchanged at 1.2% y/y, but consumer credit up to 6.7% The modest NFC credit growth signals still-weak investment demand EMU: Money supply (y/y %) Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 M M3, 3M average Enterprises Housing Consumer credit EMU: Money supply Percentage change, y/y -2 Jul-97 Jul-7 Jul-17 M3 M3, 3 mav M EZ Bank Lending Percent change y/y -4 Jul-7 Jul-12 Jul-17 Enterprises Housing Consumer Credit Source Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 4

5 EMU: Base money further up, multiplier down 35 EZ: Base Money, bn Jul-7 Jul-9 Jul-11 Jul-13 Jul-15 Jul-17 Cash Current deposits Deposit facility Base money (M) EZ: Money Supply, bn Jul-7 Jul-9 Jul-11 Jul-13 Jul-15 Jul-17 M M3 Multiplicator (rha) Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 5

6 EMU: National differences in bank lending 4 EZ Bank Lending to enterprises Percent change y/y 4 EZ Bank Lending to housing Percent change y/y Jul-7 Jul-12 Jul-17 Germany France Italy Spain Portugal Netherlands Source Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Jul-7 Jul-12 Jul-17 Germany France Italy Spain Portugal Netherlands Source Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 6

7 Sweden: Retail sales hit back in July Retail sales rose.9% m/m in July, above consensus expectations at.2%. June growth was revised down from.2% to -.1%. Trend rose to 3.6% (3m/3m a.r.), while the annual growth rate increased from 1.7% y/y to 3.8% Assessment: Swedish households are still optimistic and the upward trend in retail sales is solid. Points towards a strong Q3 figure for private consumption Sweden: Retail sales 3m/3m annual rate, % Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 3m/3m, ann. rate, % Index (rha) Sweden: m/m % y/y % % 3m a.r. Average Consumption Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 m/m % y/y % Retail sales New car registrations Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 7

8 Japan: Tight labour market Unemployment was steady at 2.8% in July. Employment rose by.2% m/m, and.9% y/y. The labour force rose by.7% y/y The job-to-applicant ratio edged up to 1.52, the highest since May 1974! Assessment: The labour market is tight with low unemployment rate and strong employment growth, boding well for consumption growth going forward. However, spill-overs to wage growth is still limited Japan: Unemployment Jul-92 Jul-97 Jul-2 Jul-7 Jul-12 Jul-17 1 % of labour force (rha) Japan: Labour market Jul-97 Jul-2 Jul-7 Jul-12 Jul-17 Employment, y/y in % Vacancy rate (rha) Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 8

9 Japan: Labour market - details Seasonally adjusted Change y/y % Japan: Labour market Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Employment, Unemployment, Unemployment, % Vacancies, Job offers/applicants New job offers/applicants Overtime index #N/A #N/A Jul-87 Jul-97 Jul-7 Jul-17 Employment Japan: Labour market In millions Participation rate, % (rha) Average cash earnings (nominal) Per cent y/y, 3m ma Jul-7 Jul-12 Jul-17 All industries Manufacturing Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 9

10 OSEBX OMX DAX Stoxx 6 FTSE 25 Dow Jones NASDAQ S&P 5 Nikkei 225 Hang Seng Shanghai USA Germany EURUSD EURGBP France Japan Norway Sweden EURCHF EURSEK USDGBP USDJPY USDSEK USDCNY EURNOK USDNOK SEKNOK CHFNOK JPYNOK Italy Spain Markets: Overview North Korean missile stirs markets Asian stock markets are down after news that North Korea this morning fired another missile that overflew Japan. In the FX market JPY, seen as a safe haven asset, has appreciated to the strongest level against USD since April. Long-term bond yields are down. EUR is holding up the strength from over the weekend and EURUSD is trading close to important level just below 1,2. A broad strengthening of EUR has weighed on SEK and NOK. The oil price, measured by Brent blend, is down 1 per cent to 52 USD/br FX, change in percent since 28 August 6:31* Equity indices year sov. bond yield, change in bp since 28 August 6:31* EUR USD NOK** **Note that higher bars indicate weaker NOK % from previous to last close % since last close **Norway, Sweden, Italy, Spain: Change in bp from previous to last close Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 1

11 Markets Equities 734 Europe USA Aug-22 17:55 Aug-23 13:2 Aug-23 17:55 Aug-24 13:2 Aug-24 17:55 Aug-25 13:2 Aug-25 17:55 13:2 3 17: Aug-24 14:15 Aug-24 21:15 Aug-25 14:5 Aug-25 21:5 15: :25 Oslo Stock Exchange EURO STOXX 5 (rha) S&P 5 Dow Jones (rha) Aug-23 6:5 Aug-24 3:55 Aug-24 7:55 Aug-25 3:45 Hang Seng Asia Aug-25 7:45 3:35 7:35 Nikkei 225 (rha) Aug-29 3: Aug-29 7: Aug-24 14:15 Aug-24 21:15 Aug-25 14:5 VIX Aug-25 21:5 15:4 22:25 Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 11

12 Markets FX Aug-23 9:2 EURUSD and USDJPY Aug-24 9:2 Aug-25 9:2 7: Aug-29 7: Aug-23 9:2 Aug-24 9:2 EURCHF and EURGBP Aug-25 9:2 7: Aug-29 7:2 EURUSD USDJPY (inv,rha) EURCHF EURGBP (rha) EURNOK and USDNOK EURSEK and SEKNOK Aug-23 9:2 Aug-24 9:2 Aug-25 9:2 7: Aug-29 7: Aug-23 9:2 Aug-24 9:2 Aug-25 9:2 7: Aug-29 7:2 EURNOK USDNOK (rha) EURSEK SEKNOK (inv,rha) Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 12

13 Change in bp since 28 August Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Markets Fixed income :45 12:15 1 sovereign bond yields USA 15:45 19:15 Germany (rha) Aug-29 2: Aug-29 7: :45 12:15 1 sovereign bond yields Italy 15:45 19:15 Spain (rha) Aug-29 2: Aug-29 7: FRA: NOK and EUR Change in bp left axis % m Nibor NOK, change in bp EUR, change in bp NOK 29-Aug EUR 29-Aug May 29-Jun 29-Jul 29-Aug Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 13

14 Markets Miscellaneous Japan: 1 year sovereign bond yield May 29-Jun 29-Jul 29-Aug EURUSD 3m basis swap May 29-Jun 29-Jul 29-Aug Sep 29-Dec 29-Mar 29-Jun 29-Sep 29-Dec 29-Mar 29-Jun Spread over Bunds 1y, basis points France Italy Spain Aug-23 6:1 Aug-24 6:3 Crude oil and gold Crude, $/barrel Aug-25 6:4 6:5 Gold, $/ounce (rha) Aug-29 7:5 Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 14

15 Markets Spot rates and forecasts Spot rates and forecasts FX 7 Last Today % In 1m Nov-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 FX 7 USD NOK USD/JPY AUD EUR/USD CAD EUR/GBP CHF EUR/DKK CNY EUR/SEK CZK EUR/CHF GBP EUR/NOK HKD USD/NOK KRW JPY/NOK BRL SEK/NOK NZD DKK/NOK RUB GBP/NOK SEK CHF/NOK SGD Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 15

16 Markets Interest rates NOK Prior Last SEK Prior Last USD Prior Last EUR Prior Last 1m m m m m m m m m m m m y m m y y y y y y.4.4 5y y y y y y y y y y Norw ay Prior Last SEK Prior Last US Prior Last Germany Prior Last NST y y y y yld y yld y yld y yld US sprea US sprea y yld US spread Norw ay 3m nibor Interest rates Governm ent bonds Interest rate forecasts 1y USA 3m libor sw ap Sw eden 3m libor 1y sw ap 1y sw ap Germany 3m euribor 1y sw ap Nov Nov Nov Nov Feb Feb Feb Feb Aug Aug Aug Aug Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 16

17 Markets Miscellaneous Miscellaneous NOK sov. Prior Last Change Maturity year rem. NOK-index TWI Prior NST Last NST Oil price: (Ldn,cl) 1m NST SPOT NST Gold price PM NST AM: NST Equities Today 7 % last NST S&P % NST Dow Jones % NOK FRA 3 mnd 6 mnd NOK NIBOR FTSE % Sep m.66 Stoxx % Dec m.78 DAX % Mar m.88 Nikkei % Jun OSEBX % Sources to all tables and graphics: Thomson Reuters, Thomson Datastream and DNB Markets Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 17

18 Calendar Monday - Wednesday Importance GMT+2 Country Event Period Unit Last Cons. DNB Actual Monday 28 August 9:3 Sweden Retail Sales Jul % m/m -.1r : EMU Money supply, M3 Jul % y/y Tuesday 29 August 1:3 Japan Unemployment Rate Jul % : Germany GfK Consumer Sentiment Sep Index :45 France GDP Detailed Q2 % q/q : USA Home Prices, CaseShiller 2 Jun % y/y : USA Consumer Confidence Aug Index : USA Speech Fed's Evans (voting member) Wednesday 3 August 1:1 UK GfK Consumer Confidence Aug Index :5 Japan Retail Sales Jul % y/y : Norway Retail Sales ex. auto Jul % m/m : Sweden Consumer Confidence Aug Index : Sweden Manufacturing Confidence Aug Index : EMU Economic Sentiment Aug Index : Germany Inflation (CPI) preliminary Aug % y/y :15 USA ADP National Employment Aug :3 USA GDP 2nd Estimate Q2 % q/q ar :3 USA Core inflation (PCE) Q2 % y/y :15 USA Speech Fed's Powell (voting member) Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 18

19 DNB Markets Macro Research Contact details Kjersti Haugland Chief Economist, Euro area / kjersti.haugland@dnb.no Jeanette Strøm Fjære Economist, Norway and Sweden / jeanette.strom.fjare@dnb.no Ole A. Kjennerud Economist, China and Japan / ole.kjennerud@dnb.no Knut A. Magnussen Senior Economist, USA, UK and Brazil / knut.magnussen@dnb.no Magne Østnor FX Strategist / magne.ostnor@dnb.no Marit Øwre-Johnsen FX Analyst / marit.owre-johnsen@dnb.no Kyrre Aamdal Senior Economist, Norway, Sweden, interest rates / kyrre.aamdal@dnb.no Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 19

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