Daily Macro Brief. Monday 6 February 2017

Transcription

1 Daily Macro Brief Monday 6 February 2017 magne.ostnor@dnb.no

2 Overview Today s calendar Norway: Manufacturing production for December. DNB: -0.3% m/m USA: Employment trends for January. Index was in December EMU: Sentix index for February. Consensus: down to 17.4 Germany: Industrial orders for December. Consensus: 0.5% m/m Highlights for the rest of the week: Tuesday: U.S. International trade Wednesday: Swedish Household consumption Thursday: Norwegian Mainland GDP for Q4 Friday: Norwegian January Inflation Daily Macro Brief page 2

3 Overview Since last report Norway: Registered unemployment was 3.2% in January, as expected Norway: Existing home prices rose 0.6% m/m in January. DNB: 0.9% USA: Non-farm payrolls rose by 227 in January (***). Consensus: +175k USA: Unemployment rate was 4.8% in January (***). Consensus: 4.7% USA: ISM non-manufacturing fell to 56.5 in January (*). Consensus: 57.0 China: Caixin PMI services fell 0.3p to 53.1 in January EMU: Retail sales fell 0.3% m/m in December (*). Consensus: +0,3% EMU: Final Markit PMI services up 0.1p to in January (*). Consensus: 53.6 UK: Markit PMI services down to 54.5 in January. Consensus: 55.8 Sweden: PMI services up to 61.1 in January. DNB: 55.0 Sweden: Industrial production down 1.8% m/m in December. DNB: +1.0% Sweden: Industrial new orders fell 1.1% m/m in December, but rose 4.7% y/y Markets: Stock markets shifting from Trump to earning season, with European and US stock markets ending Friday in black. BoJ surprised markets Friday following up on the lower-than-expected-volume-bond-purchase with an offer to buy unlimited amounts for some maturities to cap gov t yields from rising. NOK getting further support from oil, trading at new 19m lows against the EUR. Daily Macro Brief page 3

4 Calendar Friday Importance GMT+1 Country Event Period Unit Last Cons. DNB Actual Friday 03 February 02:45 China Caixin Mfg PMI Final Jan Index :30 Sweden PMI Services Jan Index :30 Sweden Ind Production Dec % m/m :30 Sweden New Orders Manuf. Dec % y/y :00 EMU Markit Serv Final PMI Jan Index :00 Norway Reg'd Unemployment NSA Jan % :00 Norway Reg'd Unemployment SA Jan r :30 UK Markit/CIPS Serv PMI Jan Index :00 Norway House prices Jan % m/m :00 EMU Retail Sales Dec % m/m :45 EMU Speech ECB Constancio 14:30 USA Average Earnings Jan % m/m :30 USA Non-Farm Payrolls Jan :30 USA Unemployment Rate Jan % :45 USA Marikit PMI, services Jan Index :00 USA Durable Goods, R MM Dec % 16:00 USA ISM N-Mfg PMI Jan Index Daily Macro Brief page 4

5 Calendar Monday - Wednesday Importance GMT+1 Country Event Period Unit Last Cons. DNB Actual Monday 06 February 02:45 China Caixin Services PMI Jan Index :00 Germany Industrial Orders Dec % m/m :00 Norway Manufacturing Output Dec % m/m :30 EMU Sentix Index Feb Index :00 USA Employment Trends Jan Index Tuesday 07 February 01:01 UK BRC Retail Sales Jan % y/y :00 Japan Leading Indicator Dec Index :00 Germany Industrial Output Dec % m/m :45 France Current Account Dec EURbn :30 UK Halifax House Prices Jan % m/m :30 USA International Trade Dec USDbn :00 USA JOLTS Job Openings Dec m :00 USA Consumer Credit Dec USDbn Wednesday 08 February 00:50 Japan Current Account NSA Dec JPYbn :00 Japan Economy Watchers Poll Jan Index :30 Sweden Household consumption Dec % m/m :00 USA Mortgage Market Index w 5 Index Daily Macro Brief page 5

6 Calendar Thursday - Friday Importance GMT+1 Country Event Period Unit Last Cons. DNB Actual Thursday 09 February 00:50 Japan Machinery Orders Dec % m/m :00 Germany Trade Balance Dec EURbn :00 Norway GDP Q4 % q/q :00 Norway GDP Mainland Q4 % q/q :30 USA Initial Jobless Claims w/e :00 USA Wholesale Inventories Dec % m/m USA Fed's Evans speaks on Economy and Policy in Chicago Friday 10 February 08:00 Norway Consumer Price Index Jan % y/y :00 Norway Core Inflation Jan % y/y :00 Norway Core Inflation Jan % m/m :45 France Industrial Output Dec % m/m :00 Italy Industrial Output Dec % m/m :30 UK Industrial Output Dec % m/m :30 UK Manufacturing Output Dec % m/m :35 UK Goods Trade Bal. Non-EU Dec GBPbn :35 UK Goods Trade Balance GBP Dec GBPbn :30 USA Export Prices Jan % m/m :30 USA Import Prices Jan % m/m :00 USA U Mich 1Yr Inflation exp. Pre Feb % :00 USA U Mich Sentiment Pre Feb Index Daily Macro Brief page 6

7 Norway: Unemployment fell in January Registered unemployment fell by 1200 persons sa. from December to January. Gross unemployment, which includes those on measures, fell by 1080 persons to 99.9k The unadjusted rate rose 0.4pp to 3.2%, as expected Assessment: On the strong side, with an unexpected fall in unemployment on a seasonally adjusted basis. Broader picture still that of sideways unemployment. Gap between LFS and registered unemployment persists, albeit both has fallen recent months. LFS indicates labour market is weaker the registered data points to. We expect unemployment to be stable or rise somewhat ahead. 3 Norway: Gross unemployment 1000 (sa). Change m/m and level Norway: Unemployed 1000, sa Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Unemployed Measures Level (rha) Feb-07 Feb-12 Feb-17 Reg.+measures Reg. LFS Source: Thomsen Datastream/DNB Markets Daily Macro Brief page 7

8 Norway: Large regional/occupational variations But differences are narrowing Norway: Registered unemployment Percentage y/y change, 3-m. moving average -20 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 South East Inland West Middle North Source: NAV/Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Labour Market Level NAV Apr-16 Oct-16 Jan persons: Gross unemployment, sa Reg. unemployed, sa On measures, sa Per cent of labour force: Reg. unemployed, ua Norway: Registered unemployment Percentage y/y change, 3-m. moving average -20 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Total Retail trade Construction Manuf. Engineers Services Source: NAV/Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Daily Macro Brief page 8

9 Norway: House prices growth continuing to rise Existing home prices rose 0.6% m/m (sa) and by 12.4% y/y in January The underlying tendency (annualised 3m/3m rate) is now 12.8% The average Norwegian home cost NOK /m 2 (median = ) homes sold, 9.4% higher than in January Avg. selling time was 44 days to sell a home, vs 47 days a year ago. Assessment: House price growth still strong, partly driven by low interest rates. Increased risk to financial stability will weigh heavily for Norges Bank, and support our view that the signal rate will remain unchanged in the coming years Norway: Existing home prices Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 m/m in % Index (rha) Source: Eiendom Norge, FINN.no//Eiendomsverdi/DNB Markets m/m % y/y % 3m/3m Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Jan-17 Home prices Source: EFF/FINN/Eiendomsverdi/DNB Markets Daily Macro Brief page 9

10 Norway: Oslo in its own league Oslo: 23.1% y/y, oil capital Stavanger: -2.8% y/y Norway: Home prices Pct. change y/y -15 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Oslo Bergen Trondheim Source: Eiendom Norge/ FINN/Eiendomsverdi/DNB Markets Norway: Home prices Pct. change y/y -15 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Stavanger Tromsø Norway Source: Eiendom Norge/ FINN/Eiendomsverdi/DNB Markets Daily Macro Brief page 10

11 Norway: Sales volumes up from 2016 Number of homes sold up from in January 2016 to in January 2017 (left chart) Advertised homes up from 6 251in January 2016 to in January 2017 (right chart) Home sales. Last month, actual (left) and advertised (right) Single homes Semidetached homes Appartments Source: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no and Eiendomsverdi Daily Macro Brief page 11

12 Norway: Selling down slightly down 44 days in January 2017, down from 47 days in January 2016 Source: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no and Eiendomsverdi Number of days to sell a unit Daily (from Macro first Brief page 12 advertisement to recorded sale)

13 Norway: Inventories lower than last year The median unsold home has been on the market for about 91 days. Number of homes for sale, daily figures. Median time the unsold home has been on the market Daily Macro Brief page 13

14 USA: Employment strong, wage growth slowed Non-farm payrolls rose by 227k in January, well above consensus expectations at 175k November and December net revised up by 124k The unemployment rate edged up 0.1pp to 4.8%, expected flat Hourly wages rose 0.1% m/m, expected 0.3%. And December revised down to 0.2%. Annual growth rate down to 2.5% - lowest since March 16 Assessment: Still strong growth in employment, met by increased labour supply. No clear signs that tight labour market is pushing up wages, and unemployment seem to level out. Despite strong employment growth, Fed can still hold back further rate hike. We expect Fed will wait to June USA: Labour market Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Non-farm payrolls, m/m, 1000 Unemployment (rha) Daily Macro Brief page 14

15 USA: Employment, details Employment report Level, 1000 sa m/m, 1000 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Non-farm payrolls 145, , , , Private total 122, , , , Manufacturing 12,325 12,325 12,336 12, Construction 6,743 6,771 6,773 6, Trade & transport 27,331 27,346 27,400 27, Information 2,780 2,768 2,764 2, Finance 8,330 8,342 8,365 8, Business services 20,334 20,380 20,412 20, Other private 44,855 44,944 44,991 45, Government 22,308 22,294 22,286 22, US Non-Farm Payrolls Monthly change, Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Business services Source: Thomson Datastream/ DNB Markets Leisure and hospitality US Non-Farm Payrolls Monthly change, Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Manufacturing Source: Thomson Datastream/ DNB Markets Construction Daily Macro Brief page 15

16 USA: Wage growth fell in January Hourly wages (for all non-farm private workers) rose 0.1% m/m. Annual growth down 0.3pp to 2.5% y/y. USA: Hourly wages All employees, private non-farm sector Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 m/m (right) 3m/3m y.r. y/y USA: Unemployment and wages Seasonally adjusted. Percent Jan-97 Jan-02 Jan-07 Jan-12 Jan-17 Unemployment Wage (workers, inv,6mlag,rha) Daily Macro Brief page 16

17 USA: Weekly hours flat USA: Unemployment Per cent of labour force Jan-77 Jan-87 Jan-97 Jan-07 Jan-17 Total 27 weeks or more Less than 27 weeks Manufacturing: Working hours Hours/w eek. Seas. adjusted 39 2 Jan-97 Jan-02 Jan-07 Jan-12 Jan-17 Workweek Overtime Key indicators Level or m/m y/y % Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Hourly wages, m/m Man-hours, m/m Weekly hours, all Manufacturing Vol.unemployed, % Temp. lay-offs, ,033 1, %unemployed Un.duration, weeks Temp. employed Daily Macro Brief page 17

18 USA: Household survey unemployment up Employment fell by 30k, while the labour force increased by 76k. Thus, the number of unemployed rose by 106k, which pushed up the unemployment rate by 0.1pp to 4.8% Assessment: Volatile data, but trend seems to level out. Technical: A survey of households, the second week of the month. More volatile than the establishment survey USA: Household Survey Millions. Seas.adjusted Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Labour force Employment Unempl. (rha) Household survey Level, Millions sa m/m, 1000 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Labour force Employment Unemployment Particip. ratio Unempl. rate Daily Macro Brief page 18

19 USA: Labour force and population 68 USA: Participation ratio Labour force in per cent of population 67 USA: Labour market Per cent Jan-69 Jan-77 Jan-85 Jan-93 Jan-01 Jan-09 Jan USA: Labour market Per cent 54 Jan-77 Jan-87 Jan-97 Jan-07 Jan-17 Employment/population Unemployment, ra Jan-77 Jan-87 Jan-97 Jan-07 Jan-17 Employment/population Popul. Ratio 25-54y USA: Labour market Per cent Population Labour force LFPR, rha Daily Macro Brief page 19

20 USA: Non-Manufacturing ISM sideways The non-manufacturing ISM fell 0.1p to 56.5 in January. Consensus: 57.0 Marked decline in new orders and some decline in business activity, but strong rise in the employment index. Assessment: Lower than expected, but still at decent level Technical note: Surveys about 370 purchasing managers in 9 industries. Just four sub-indices seasonally adjusted. Since Jan-2008 the total is based upon equal weights for activity, employment, new orders & deliveries. USA: ISM Jan-02 Jan-07 Jan-12 Jan-17 Manufacturing Services US: Private services employment Jan-02 Jan-07 Jan-12 Jan-17 Service ISM (employment) Emp m/m (1000,rha) Daily Macro Brief page 20

21 US: ISM services, details ISM services (non-adjusted unless indicated otherwise ) Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Change Total Bus ines s activity s a. (25%) Em ploym ent s a. (25%) Im ports s a Inventories, level Inventories, change Export orders New orders, s a. (25%) Order reserves Prices Supplier deliveries (25%) Source: Thom s on Datas tream/dnb Markets 70 ISM services Jan-02 Jan-07 Jan-12 Jan-17 New orders Export orders Order reserves ISM services: Inventories and deliveries 35 Jan-02 Jan-07 Jan-12 Jan-17 Level Change Deliveries Daily Macro Brief page 21

22 China: Services-PMI fell in January Caixin s services PMI (business activity) fell 0.3p to 53.1 in January Employment +1.2p, expected activity +1.4p, new activity -0.3p Assessment: Activity in the service sector still holding up well relative to manufacturing Note that the Caixin Service PMI focuses on small- and medium size companies China: PMI Index (Caixin/Markit) 40 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Services Industry China: Service-PMI Index (HCaixin/Markit) Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Business activity Expected activity (rha) Employment Daily Macro Brief page 22

23 China: PMI Services/Details PMI - Services (Caixin/Markit) Signal Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Business activity Employment Expected activity New activity Remaining activities Input prices Output prices = Improvement + = Expansion = Deterioration - = Contraction Daily Macro Brief page 23

24 EMU: Retail sales fell further in December Retail sales fell 0.3% m/m in December, versus expectations of +0.3%. November revised down by 0.2pp to - 0.6% m/m The underlying tendency, measured by 3m/3m annual rate, increased 0.9pp. to 3.4% Assessment: Momentum has been strong in a long period, with sales being lifted by high growth in households real disposable income. Recent decline after strong rise in October EZ: Retail Sales Seasonally adjusted volume 96 Dec-10 Dec-12 Dec-14 Dec-16 Source: Thomson Datastream / DNB Markets Retail sales, % m/m Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 3m/3m EMU Germany France Italy Auto sales, ua Daily Macro Brief page 24

25 EMU: Final Services PMI revised up in January PMI services was 53.7 in January, up 0.1p from the flash estimate, and unchanged from December Composite index revised up by 0.1p to 54.4, highest since May 2011 and consistent with GDP growth around 0.6% q/q. 60 EMU: PMI Composite Manufacturing Services 65 EMU: PMI services Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Germany France Spain Italy Daily Macro Brief page 25

26 EMU: PMIs indicate 0.6% GDP growth EMU: Services PMI Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Jan-17 Flash Final Total New business Employment Output prices Input prices Existing business Germany France Italy Spain Source: Markit. The total is not a w eighted sum of subindices EZ: GDP and PMI Q Q Q GDP (% q/q, rha) PMI-Comp. GDP-est. (rha) Daily Macro Brief page 26

27 UK: Services CIPS down in January Service CIPS fell 1.7p to 54.5 in January. Expected 55.8 (Reuters). Level still above the pre-brexit period, and close to historical average. Driven by a decline in outstanding and new business and employment. Business expectations further up. Assessment: The service PMI fell back more than expected, but level still decent. So far there are no signs of major negative effects after the Brexit vote CIPS services Relative to average/standard deviation last 15Y UK: CIPS services and GDP Jan-97 Jan-02 Jan-07 Jan-12 Jan-17 +/- 1 std.dev. Actual Source: Thomason Datastream/ DNB Markets Q Q Q Q GDP q/q CIPS (ra) Source: Thomson Datastream/ DNB Markets Daily Macro Brief page 27

28 UK: Services and manufacturing CIPS 65 UK: CIPS Jan-97 Jan-01 Jan-05 Jan-09 Jan-13 Jan-17 Manufacturing Services UK: CIPS manufacturing Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Change Total New order (30%) Output (25%) Empl. (20%) Delivery times (15%) Stocks (10%) Output prices UK: CIPS services Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Change Total (business activity) Employment Outstanding business Business expectations New Business Prices charged Input prices Daily Macro Brief page 28

29 Sweden: Production dropped in December Industrial output lost 1.8% m/m in December. We expected +1.0%. Annual growth rate fell from -0.1% y/y in November to -0.9% in December. Trend (3m/3m) at 5.1% a.r., heavily affected by volatile August and September The very volatile manufacturing orders dropped 1.1% m/m in December. Annual growth +4.7% y/y. Assessment: Very volatile data, but overall rather flattish over the past five months Sweden: Manufacturing Percentage change, m/m -6 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Production Orders (rha) Sweden: Manufacturing 2005=100, sa 85 Dec-01 Dec-04 Dec-07 Dec-10 Dec-13 Dec-16 Production New orders Daily Macro Brief page 29

30 Sweden: Production/orders, details m/m sa % y/y % 3m/3m, a.r. 5 year average Production Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Dec-16 m/m % y/y % Industrial prod. excl. el. & gas Capital Goods Durable consumer goods Non-durable consumer goods Intermediate goods m/m sa % y/y % 3m/3m, a.r. 5 year average New orders Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Dec-16 m/m % å/å % Manufacturing Domestic Exports Daily Macro Brief page 30

31 EURUSD EURGBP EURCHF EURSEK USDGBP USDJPY USDSEK USDCNY EURNOK USDNOK SEKNOK CHFNOK JPYNOK OSEBX OMX DAX Stoxx 600 FTSE 250 Dow Jones NASDAQ S&P 500 Nikkei 225 Hang Seng Shanghai USA Germany Japan Norway Sweden Italy Spain Markets: Overview From Trump to earnings season Stock markets shifting from Trump to earning season, with European and US stock markets ending Friday in black. BoJ surprised markets Friday following up on the lower-than-expected-volume-bond-purchase with an offer to buy unlimited amounts for some maturities to cap gov t yields from rising. NOK getting further support from oil, trading at new 19m lows against the EUR FX, change in percent since 03 February 06:31* Equity indices year sov. bond yield, change in bp since 03 February 06:31* EUR USD NOK *GMT +1 Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets % from previous to last close % since last close Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets *GMT +1 **Norway, Sweden, Italy, Spain: Change in bp from previous to last close Daily Macro Brief page 31

32 Markets Equities Jan-30 17:55 Jan-31 13:20 Jan-31 17:55 Feb-01 13:20 Europe Feb-01 17:55 Feb-02 13:20 Feb-02 17:55 Feb-03 13: Feb-03 17: Feb-01 14:15 Feb-01 21:15 Feb-02 14:50 USA Feb-02 21:50 Feb-03 15: Feb-03 22:25 Oslo Stock Exchange *GMT +1 Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets EURO STOXX 50 (rha) S&P 500 *GMT +1 Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets Dow Jones (rha) Asia VIX Jan-31 05:15 Feb-01 03:05 Feb-01 07:05 Hang Seng *GMT +1 Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets Feb-02 02:55 Feb-02 06:55 Feb-03 02:45 Feb-03 06:45 Nikkei 225 (rha) Feb-06 02: Feb-06 06: Feb-01 14:15 Feb-01 21:15 *GMT +1 Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets Feb-02 14:50 Feb-02 21:50 Feb-03 15:40 Feb-03 22:25 Daily Macro Brief page 32

33 Markets FX EURUSD and USDJPY EURCHF and EURGBP Jan-31 10:40 Feb-01 10:40 Feb-02 10:40 Feb-03 10: Feb-06 06: Jan-31 10:40 Feb-01 10:40 Feb-02 10:40 Feb-03 10: Feb-06 06:40 *GMT +1 Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets EURUSD USDJPY (inv,rha) *GMT +1 Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets EURCHF EURGBP (rha) EURNOK and USDNOK EURSEK and SEKNOK Jan-31 10:40 Feb-01 10:40 Feb-02 10:40 Feb-03 10: Feb-06 06: Jan-31 10:40 Feb-01 10:40 Feb-02 10:40 Feb-03 10: Feb-06 06:40 *GMT +1 Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets EURNOK USDNOK (rha) *GMT +1 Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets EURSEK SEKNOK (inv,rha) Daily Macro Brief page 33

34 Change in bp since 03 February Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Markets Fixed income Feb-03 09:10 10 sovereign bond yields Feb-03 12:40 Feb-03 16:10 Feb-03 19:40 Feb-06 01: Feb-06 06: Feb-03 09:10 Feb-03 12:40 10 sovereign bond yields Feb-03 16:10 Feb-03 19:40 Feb-06 01: Feb-06 06:25 *GMT +1 Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets USA Germany (rha) *GMT +1 Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets Italy Spain (rha) FRA: NOK and EUR Change in bp left axis % m Nibor NOK, change in bp NOK 6-Feb Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets EUR, change in bp EUR 6-Feb Nov 4-Dec 4-Jan 4-Feb Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets Daily Macro Brief page 34

35 Markets Miscellaneous Japan: 10 year sovereign bond yield Nov 4-Dec 4-Jan 4-Feb Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets EURUSD 3m basis swap Nov 4-Dec 4-Jan 4-Feb Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets Spread over Bunds 10y, basis points Mar 9-Jun 9-Sep 9-Dec 9-Mar 9-Jun 9-Sep 9-Dec Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets France Italy Spain 58.0 Crude oil and gold Jan-31 05:45 Feb-01 05:55 Feb-02 06:05 Feb-03 06:15 Crude, $/barrel Gold, $/ounce (rha) *GMT +1 Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets Feb-06 06:25 Daily Macro Brief page 35

36 Markets Spot rates and forecasts Spot rates and forecasts FX 0700 Last Today % In 1m Apr-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 FX 0700 USD NOK USD/JPY AUD EUR/USD CAD EUR/GBP CHF EUR/DKK CNY EUR/SEK CZK EUR/CHF GBP EUR/NOK HKD USD/NOK KWD JPY/NOK LTL SEK/NOK NZD DKK/NOK RUB GBP/NOK SEK CHF/NOK SGD Daily Macro Brief page 36

37 Markets Interest rates NOK Prior Last SEK Prior Last USD Prior Last EUR Prior Last 1m m m m m m m m m m m m y m m y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y Norw ay Prior Last SEK Prior Last US Prior Last Germany Prior Last NST y y y y yld y yld y yld y yld US sprea US sprea y yld US spread Norw ay 3m nibor Interest rates Governm ent bonds Interest rate forecasts 10y sw ap Sw eden 3m libor 10y USA 3m libor sw ap 10y sw ap Germany 3m euribor 10y sw ap Apr Apr Apr Apr Jul Jul Jul Jul Jan Jan Jan Jan Daily Macro Brief page 37

38 Markets Miscellaneous Miscellaneous NOK sov. Prior Last Change Maturity year rem. NOK-index TWI Prior NST Last NST Oil price: (Ldn,cl) 1m NST SPOT NST Gold price PM NST AM: NST Equities Today 0700 % last NST S&P % NST Dow Jones % NOK FRA 3 mnd 6 mnd NOK NIBOR FTSE % Mar m 0.68 Stoxx % Jun m 1.00 DAX % Sep m 1.16 Dec OSEBX % Sources to all tables and graphics: Thomson Reuters, Thomson Datastream and DNB Markets Daily Macro Brief page 38

39 DNB Markets Macro Research Contact details Jeanette Strøm Fjære Analyst, Norway and Sweden / jeanette.strom.fjare@dnb.no Ole André Kjennerud Analyst, China and Japan / ole.kjennerud@dnb.no Knut A. Magnussen Senior Economist, USA, UK and Brazil / knut.magnussen@dnb.no Kyrre Aamdal Senior Economist, Norway, Sweden, interest rates / kyrre.aamdal@dnb.no Magne Østnor FX Strategist / magne.ostnor@dnb.no Marit Øwre-Johnsen FX Analyst / marit.owre-johnsen@dnb.no Daily Macro Brief page 39

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