Daily Macro Brief. Friday 22 December 2017 Kjersti Haugland, DNB Markets

Transcription

1 Daily Macro Brief Friday 22 December 217 Kjersti Haugland, DNB Markets

2 Overview Key events today Norway: Registered unemployment is expected to have been steady at 2.3% in December, implying a further improvement in the labour market. USA: Fed s preferred core inflation gauge, core PCE, is expected to have edged up by.1pp to 1.5% y/y in November. Consumption growth is expected to have picked up in the same month, to.5% m/m, while income growth is expected to have been stable at.4%. Orders statistics for durable goods are also released today. These are expected to have increased by 1.8% m/m in November, indicating an upturn in business investments. Turning to the housing market, new home sales are expected to have fallen back somewhat in November. The outcome may be stronger than this though, as Wednesday s existing home sales rose significantly more than expected. UK: The final estimate of Q3 GDP growth is expected to be unchanged from the previous release, at.4% q/q. Sweden: Retail sales are expected to have risen by.2% m/m in November. See the attached calendar for details Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 2

3 Overview Key events since last report USA: The final GDP reading for Q3 was a touch lower than the previous, at 3.2% q/q annualised. The growth pace is about the double of what we perceive as the normal for the US economy. The December Philly Fed business confidence index points to a further pick-up in activity in December. Initial claims rose more than expected last week, but the level is still very low by historical standards, pointing to a still-strong development in the labour market. The US Congress has agreed on a spending bill that delays the deadline for increasing the debt ceiling to 19 January. EMU: Consumer confidence rose by more than expected in December, to a level well above the historical average, pointing to strengthening consumption growth. France: INSEE business confidence edged down only marginally from a 1-year high level in November, indicating a still-strong momentum in EMU s second largest economy. Spain: The three separatist parties won 7 seats, two more seats than needed to form a government, in the Catalan parliament election that took place yesterday. However, they did not manage to get the majority of the votes (48%). Hence, the political gridlock continues. For details on market developments, see here See the attached calendar for details Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 3

4 USA: 2 nd revision of Q3 GDP slightly lower Q3 GDP was revised down marginally (by.1pp) to 3.2% q/q annualised rate. Main picture intact: Private consumption remained the most important driver in Q3, but all demand components contributed positively. The core personal consumption deflator, Fed s preferred inflation gauge, was revised down again by.1pp to 1.3%. Assessment: Growth picked up in Q3, and is about double as strong than what we perceive as the normal USA: GDP Per cent -1 Q3 27 Q3 212 Q3 217 q/q saar National Accounts Per cent q/q, saar Per cent, y/y Q4 216 Q1 217 Q2 217 Q3 217 Q1 217 Q2 217 Q3 217 Private consumption Private investments Business Housing Stock change (% contribution) Public demand Exports Imports Net exports (% contribution) Gross Domestic Product GDP Deflator PCE deflator, core y/y 1st rev. q/q saar Q Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 4

5 USA: Positive contribution from all components 1. USA: Growth contribution GDP Quarterly grow th (not annualized) per cent) Core PCE price index Q3 216 Q1 217 Q3 217 Priv.cons Investm. Stocks Gov. cons Net. exp. GDP.5. Q3 27 Q3 212 Q3 217 q/q s.a.a.r. y/y Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 5

6 USA: Philly Fed points to stronger activity The headline index (current condition) rose 3.5p to 26.2 in December, while consensus had expected a slight decline to 21. (Reuters). The 6-month forecast index also improved. Both indices are at levels well above normal. Improvement in the indices for new orders and inventories was the main driver. Order reserves, on the other hand, are declining. Assessment: Philly Fed points to an uptick in business activity towards the end of PhillyFed: Manufacturing Diffusion index (average ) -5 Dec-7 Dec-12 Dec-17 Current activity 6-month forecast Philadelphia Fed Regional Manufacturing Survey Current activity 6-month forecast Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Total New Orders Shipments Unfilled Orders Delivery Time Inventories Prices Paid Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 6

7 USA: Philly Fed, details Philadelphia Fed: Manufacturing Current outlook. Diffusion index Dec-7 Dec-12 Dec-17 New orders Delivery times Unfilled orders Philadelphia Fed: Manufacturing Current outlook. Diffusion index Dec-7 Dec-12 Dec-17 Delivery time Inventories Philadelphia Fed: Manufacturing Current outlook. Diffusion index -4 Dec-7 Dec-12 Dec-17 Prices paid Output prices Philadelphia Fed: Manufacturing Current outlook. Diffusion index Dec-7 Dec-12 Dec-17 Employed Working week Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 7

8 USA: Philly Fed points to a higher ISM US: Philly Fed and ISM Dec-7 Dec-12 Dec-17 Philadelphia Fed Source: Thomson Datastream /DNB Markets ISM (ha) Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 8

9 USA: Initial claims up last week, level still low Initial jobless claims rose by 2k to 245k last week, a reading that was 12k above consensus expectations. 4w average edged up to 236k. Assessment: Claims are still at very low levels, indicating the labour market continues to improve Week, 1 USA: Initial claims 3-Nov 7-Dec 14-Dec 21-Dec Initial claims change w/w week average Continued claims % of labour force USA: Cont. claims & unemployment Per cent 3 Nov-67 Nov-77 Nov-87 Nov-97 Nov-7 Nov USA: Initial Jobless Claims Seasonally adjusted Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Cont.claims Unemployed (rha) Actual 4 week average Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 9

10 USA: Initial claims long horizon 75 Initial Jobless Claims Seasonally adjusted Oct-65 Oct-75 Oct-85 Oct-95 Oct-5 Oct-15 Actual 4 week average Source: Kilde: Thomson Thomson Datastream/DnBNOR Datastream/DNB Markets Markets Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 1

11 EMU: Consumer confidence high and rising The consumer confidence (flash estimate) in the euro zone rose by.4p to.5 in December,.3p above the consensus estimate and 1.6 standard deviation above the historical average. Assessment: Consumer confidence is high and rising, pointing to stronger consumption growth EMU: Consumer confidence Dec-97 Dec-2 Dec-7 Dec-12 Dec-17 Standard deviation from 2-year average Level: Optimists - pessimists (rha) Source: Thomson Datastream / DNB Markets EZ Consumer Confidence and Private Consumption Q4 22 Q4 27 Q4 212 Q4 217 Consumption y/y Source: Thomson Datastream / DNB Markets 5-5 Consumer confidence (rha) Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 11

12 France: INSEE-index strong in December The INSEE composite index for business confidence abated by merely 1p from 113 in December, the highest level seen in 1 years. There was a marginal decline in most sub-indices, except for export orders. Assessment: The index remains at a high level, indicating continued solid growth in the euro zone s second largest economy. Note: An INSEE reading of 112 (for the quarter) has historically coincided with a GDP growth of about 4% y/y, but the index has been a poor indicator for activity growth since the financial crisis. -4 Dec-7 Dec-12 Dec-17 INSEE Business Confidence Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Composite index General outlook Orders Export orders Actual production Finished goods inventories Expected output Expected prices Back to index Daily Macro Brief page INSEE Standard deviations from 2y average Composite General outlook

13 INSEE France s most important index About 4 5 manufacturing corporates are asked about current and future production. The composite index is made up of seven sub-indices, and measures the difference in percentage points between those seeing an improvement and those seeing a deterioration. Correlates well with GDP and actual production, but not the in the past years and is more volatile. France represents ~2% of the euro area. 8 INSEE and GDP 13 3 INSEE and IFO Standard deviations from 2y average Q Q Q Q4 27 Q4 217 GDP y/y INSEE (quarterly average,ra) Dec-7 Dec-12 Dec-17 INSEE IFO (ra) Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 13

14 EURUSD EURGBP EURCHF EURSEK USDGBP USDJPY USDSEK USDCNY EURNOK USDNOK SEKNOK CHFNOK JPYNOK OSEBX OMX DAX Stoxx 6 FTSE 25 Dow Jones NASDAQ S&P 5 Nikkei 225 Hang Seng Shanghai USA Germany France Japan Norway Sweden Italy Spain Markets: Overview NOK regains some of Wednesday s loss Stock markets and European bond yields rose further on Thursday. In FX markets, the NOK has regained some of its losses from Wednesday. The EURNOK is currently trading close to 9.91, down.7% from Thursday morning, but still close to the record-high reached on Christmas Eve 28. The euro has weakened slightly on the reports of the separatists election victory in Catalonia FX, change in percent since 21 December 7:46* Equity indices year sov. bond yield, change in bp since 21 December 7:46* EUR USD NOK** *GMT +1 **Note that higher bars indicate weaker NOK % from previous to last close % since last close *GMT +1 **Norway, Sweden, Italy, Spain: Change in bp from previous to last close Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 14

15 Markets Equities 81 Europe USA Dec-15 11:35 Dec-15 15:55 Dec-18 12:5 Dec-19 9:4 Dec-19 14: Dec-2 1:5 Dec-2 15:1 Dec-21 12:5 312 Dec-21 16: Dec-14 22:1 Dec-15 22:1 Dec-18 22:1 Dec-19 22:1 Dec-2 22:1 243 Dec-21 22:1 *GMT +1 Oslo Stock Exchange EURO STOXX 5 (rha) *GMT +1 S&P 5 Dow Jones (rha) 296 Asia VIX Dec-15 4:1 Dec-15 9:5 *GMT +1 Dec-18 7:1 Dec-19 4:2 Hang Seng Dec-2 2:25 Dec-2 7:2 Dec-21 4:3 Nikkei 225 (rha) Dec-22 2: Dec-22 7: Dec-14 22:1 Dec-15 22:1 *GMT +1 Dec-18 22:1 Dec-19 22:1 Dec-2 22:1 Dec-21 22:1 Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 15

16 Markets FX EURNOK and USDNOK EURSEK and SEKNOK Dec-18 7:4 Dec-19 7:4 Dec-2 7:4 Dec-21 7: Dec-22 7: Dec-18 7:4 Dec-19 7:4 Dec-2 7:4 Dec-21 7: Dec-22 7:4 *GMT +1 EURNOK USDNOK (rha) *GMT +1 EURSEK SEKNOK (inv,rha) Dec-18 7:4 Dec-19 7:4 EURUSD and USDJPY Dec-2 7:4 Dec-21 7: Dec-22 7: Dec-18 7:4 Dec-19 7:4 EURCHF and EURGBP Dec-2 7:4 Dec-21 7: Dec-22 7:4 *GMT +1 EURUSD USDJPY (inv,rha) *GMT +1 EURCHF EURGBP (rha) Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 16

17 Change in bp since 21 December Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Markets Fixed income Dec-21 12:2 *GMT sovereign bond yields Dec-21 15:5 USA Dec-21 19:2 Dec-21 22:5 FRA: NOK and EUR Change in bp left axis Germany (rha) NOK, change in bp NOK 22-Dec Dec-22 4:15 EUR, change in bp EUR 22-Dec Dec-22 7: % EURUSD 3m basis swap Oct 17-Nov 17-Dec 3m Nibor Oct 17-Nov 17-Dec Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 17

18 Markets Miscellaneous Dec-18 6:55 *GMT +1 Dec-19 7:5 Crude oil and gold Crude, $/barrel Dec-2 7:15 Dec-21 7:25 Gold, $/ounce (rha) Dec-22 7: Commodity prices USD per metric tonne, rebased to Sep 6-Oct 2-Oct 3-Nov 17-Nov 1-Dec 15-Dec Iron ore 62% China Index Steel price (China, CNY m/t) LME Copper price LME Aluminum 3m fwd y swap-sov spread, bp Change in bp in parenthesis Oct 17-Nov 17-Dec US () DE () NO () Markit itraxx Crossover Oct 6-Nov 2-Nov 4-Dec 18-Dec Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 18

19 Markets Spot rates and forecasts Spot rates and forecasts FX 7 Last Today % In 1m Mar-18 Jun-18 Dec-18 FX 7 USD NOK USD/JPY AUD USD/CNY CAD EUR/USD CHF EUR/GBP CNY EUR/DKK CZK EUR/SEK GBP EUR/CHF ZAR EUR/NOK HKD USD/NOK KRW JPY/NOK BRL SEK/NOK NZD DKK/NOK RUB GBP/NOK SEK CHF/NOK SGD Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 19

20 Markets Interest rates NOK Prior Last SEK Prior Last USD Prior Last EUR Prior Last 1m m m m m m m m m m m m y m m y y.4.4 3y y y y y y y y y y y y y y Norw ay Prior Last SEK Prior Last US Prior Last Germany Prior Last NST479/d y y y y yld y yld y yld y yld.4.42 US sprea US sprea y yld US spread Norw ay 3m nibor Interest rates Governm ent bonds Interest rate forecasts 1y sw ap Sw eden 3m libor 1y USA 3m libor sw ap 1y sw ap Germany 3m euribor 1y sw ap Mar Mar Mar Mar Jun Jun Jun Jun Dec Dec Dec Dec Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 2

21 Markets Miscellaneous Miscellaneous NOK sov. Prior Last Change Maturity year rem. NOK-index TWI Prior NST Last NST Oil price: (Ldn,cl) 1m NST SPOT NST Gold price PM NST AM: NST Equities Today 7 % last NST479/d S&P % NST479/d Dow Jones % NOK FRA 3 mnd 6 mnd NOK NIBOR FTSE % Mar m.76 Stoxx % Jun m.83 DAX % Sep m.93 Nikkei % Dec OSEBX % Sources to all tables and graphics: Thomson Reuters, Thomson Datastream and DNB Markets Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 21

22 Calendar Thursday - Friday Importance GMT+2 Country Event Period Unit Last Cons. DNB Actual Thursday 21 December Japan Bank of Japan Policy Rate Dec % Japan Bank of Japan 1 year target rate Dec %.... 1:1 UK GFK Consumer Confidence Dec Index :45 France Business Confidence Dec Index 113r : Sweden Consumer Confidence Dec Index : Sweden Manufacturing Confidence Dec Index :3 USA Initial Jobless Claims Dec :3 USA Chicago Fed National Activity Nov Index.76r :3 USA Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Dec Index :3 USA GDP annualised (final) Q3 q/q % :3 USA PCE inflation (final) Q3 q/q % : USA FHFA House Prices Oct m/m %.5r : USA Leading Index Nov m/m % : EMU Consumer Confidence, flash Dec Index Friday 22 December 8: Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Jan Index : Switzerland KOF Leading Indicator Dec Index :3 Sweden Retail Sales Nov m/m %.1.2 1: Norway Unemployment Rate Dec % :3 UK GDP (final) Q3 q/q % :3 USA Durable Goods orders Nov m/m % :3 USA Personal Expenditure Nov m/m % :3 USA Core PCE inflation Nov y/y % :3 USA PCE inflation Nov y/y % : USA New home sales Nov Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 22

23 DNB Markets Macro Research Contact details Kjersti Haugland Chief Economist, Euro area / kjersti.haugland@dnb.no Jeanette Strøm Fjære Economist, Norway and Sweden / jeanette.strom.fjare@dnb.no Ole A. Kjennerud Economist, China and Japan / ole.kjennerud@dnb.no Knut A. Magnussen Senior Economist, USA, UK and Brazil / knut.magnussen@dnb.no Magne Østnor FX Strategist / magne.ostnor@dnb.no Marit Øwre-Johnsen FX Analyst / marit.owre-johnsen@dnb.no Kyrre Aamdal Senior Economist, Norway, Sweden, interest rates / kyrre.aamdal@dnb.no Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 23

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