Daily Macro Brief. Wednesday 8 March 2017

Transcription

1 Daily Macro Brief Wednesday 8 March 217 kjersti.haugland@dnb.no

2 Overview Today s calendar USA: ADP National employment in February. Consensus: Up 19k USA: Labour costs revised in Q4. Consensus: 1.6% USA: Productivity revised in Q4. Consensus: 1.5% Germany: Industrial output in January. Consensus: 2.4% m/m UK: RICS Housing survey in February. Consensus: Down 2p to 23p Switzerland: CPI in February. Previous:.% m/m China: Dollar-denominated exports in February. Consensus: 12.2% y/y China (Thursday morning): CPI in February. Consensus: 1.7% y/y China (Thursday morning): PPI in February. Consensus: 7.7% y/y Daily Macro Brief page 2

3 Overview Since last report Global: OECD Interim Economic Outlook: Modest pick-up for global growth Norway: Regional network survey shows solid upswing in production Norway: Manufacturing output up.2% m/m in January, as expected USA: Trade balance -48.5bn USD in January, as expected USA: Consumer credit was 8.8bn in January, down from 14.2bn in December. EMU: GDP up.4% q/q for Q4, as expected and unchanged from prelim. reading Germany: Industrial orders fell 7.4% m/m in January. Expected: -2.5% UK: Halifax house prices rose.1% m/m in February. Consensus:.3% Japan: GDP rose by.3% q/q in Q4, revised up from.2%. Markets: Stock and bond market movements were mixed and limited yesterday. The NOK strengthened in the wake of Norges Bank s regional network survey yesterday. The pound sterling weakened, partly due to a vote in Parliament on the prime minister s right to start formal Brexit talks. Daily Macro Brief page 3

4 Calendar Tuesday Importance GMT+1 Country Event Period Unit Last Cons. DNB Actual Tuesday 7 March China FX Reserves Feb tn USD : Germany Industrial Orders Jan m/m % : Norway Manufacturing Output Jan m/m % :3 UK Halifax House Prices Feb m/m % -1.1r.3.1 1: Norway Regional Network Survey* N/A Index : EMU GDP Revised Q4 q/q % : EMU GDP Revised Q4 y/y % :3 USA International Trade Jan bn USD : Norway Vice Governor Egil Matsen speaks at Energy-conference 21: USA Consumer Credit Jan bn USD Daily Macro Brief page 4

5 Calendar Wednesday Thursday morning Importance GMT+1 Country Event Period Unit Last Cons. DNB Actual Wednesday 8 March :5 Japan GDP Revised Q4 q/q % China Exports Feb y/y % China Imports Feb y/y % China Trade Balance Feb bn USD : Germany Industrial Output Jan m/m % :15 Switzerland CPI Feb m/m % 13: USA MBA Purchase Index w/e Index :15 USA ADP National Employment Feb :3 USA Labor Costs Revised Q4 % :3 USA Productivity Revised Q4 % Thursday 9 March 1:1 UK RICS Housing Survey Feb Index :3 China CPI Feb m/m % 1.6 2:3 China CPI Feb y/y % :3 China PPI Feb y/y % Daily Macro Brief page 5

6 OECD Interim Economic Outlook (I) Global: Global growth set to pick-up modestly Daily Macro Brief page 6

7 OECD Interim Economic Outlook (II) Global: Disconnect markets and fundamentals Daily Macro Brief page 7

8 OECD Interim Economic Outlook (III) Global: Political uncertainty Daily Macro Brief page 8

9 OECD Interim Economic Outlook (IV) Global: Negative effects of increased trade-costs Daily Macro Brief page 9

10 OECD Interim Economic Outlook (V) Global: GDP growth projections Daily Macro Brief page 1

11 Norges Banks Regional Network (25 Jan Feb.) Norway: Growth is picking up Index for actual output growth past 3 months at.83, vs.6 in November. Level consistent with annualised growth at 1.7%. Expected output growth next 6 months at 1.2 vs.73 in November. Consistent with 2.% annual growth. Norges Bank expects 1.5% GDP Mainland growth in 217. Capacity utilization: 26% of surveyed companies face capacity constraints, and 12% say labour supply limits production. A little up from November, but still low Reg. network. Change Last 3m and next6m. Scale -5 to +5. Prod. rha -2-4 Jul-7 Jul-9 Jul-11 Jul-13 Jul-15 Jul-17 Production Source: Norges Bank/DNB Markets Employment Reg.network: Capacity constraints? Percentage share Feb-7 Feb-9 Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15 Feb-17 Hard to accomodate higher demand Production limited by shortage of labor supply Source: Norges Bank/DNB Markets Daily Macro Brief page 11

12 Norges Banks Regional Network (25 Jan Feb.) Norway: Improvement in oil services, still decline Reg. network: Production. Change Last 3m and next 6m. Scale -5 to +5. Prod. rha -4-8 Jul-7 Jul-9 Jul-11 Jul-13 Jul-15 Jul-17 Oil supp. Domestic Export Source: Norges Bank/DNB Markets Daily Macro Brief page 12

13 Norges Banks Regional Network (25 Jan Feb.) Norway: Improvement in household services Reg. network: Production. Change Last 3m and next 6m. Scale -5 to +5. Prod. rha -3-6 Jul-7 Jul-9 Jul-11 Jul-13 Jul-15 Jul-17 Retail sales B2B Services Househ.services Source: Norges Bank/DNB Markets Daily Macro Brief page 13

14 Norges Banks Regional Network (25 Jan Feb.) Norway: Investments expected to remain low Expected investments next 12m Index -5 to +5, lh scale. Percent, rh axis Feb-7 Feb-9 Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15 Feb-17 Total Manuf. Retail Services Local gov't Source: Norges Bank/DNB Markets Daily Macro Brief page 14

15 Norges Banks Regional Network (25 Jan Feb.) Norway: Employment to increase Reg. network: Employment. Change Last 3m & next 3m. Scale -5 to +5. Percent rha Jul-7 Jul-9 Jul-11 Jul-13 Jul-15 Jul-17 Manuf. Const. Retail Services Source: Norges Bank/DNB Markets Daily Macro Brief page 15

16 Norges Banks Regional Network (25 Jan Feb.) Norway: Still ample capacity Daily Macro Brief page 16

17 Norges Banks Regional Network (25 Jan Feb.) Norway: Regional differences remain 9 RN: Hard to meet higher demand Percent share 9 RN: Hard to meet higher demand Percent share Feb-7 Feb-9 Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15 Feb-17 North Mid Inland East Source: Norges Bank/DNB Markets Feb-7 Feb-9 Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15 Feb-17 North West South West South Source: Norges Bank/DNB Markets Daily Macro Brief page 17

18 Norges Banks Regional Network (25 Jan Feb.) Wage growth expected at 2.5% Actual selling prices up slightly over the past 12 months. Retail trade prices have risen markedly after a sharp decline, but increase has slowed since November. More than 5% of all contacts expect a higher rise in the prices next 12 months. Projected wage growth in 217 unchanged at 2.5% y/y Reg.network: Price expectations Change in selling prices next 12m,. Diff. index 2 Feb-7 Feb-9 Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15 Feb-17 Source: Norges Bank/DNB Markets Retail/household services Other Expected annual wage growth Per cent Prev. year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 TBU Source: Norges Bank/DNB Markets Daily Macro Brief page 18

19 Norway: Production higher in January Manufacturing production rose.2% m/m in January. We expected a fall of.3% m/m Trend (3m/3m) rose to 7.1% a.r. Driven by an increase in consumerand energy goods, while capital- and intermediate goods fell. Assessment: Volatile data, but trend is now very strong indicating that manufacturing output have flattened out somewhat and showing signs of growth, after a long period with a sharp fall in the aftermath of the oil price fall. We expect a slow upturn in the Norwegian economy, which is consistent with a slow uptick in manufacturing production going forward Norway: Production volume 25=1. Seasonally adjusted 6 Jan-97 Jan-2 Jan-7 Jan-12 Jan-17 Manufacturing Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Oil Daily Macro Brief page 19

20 Norway: Industrial production, details Industrial production m/m i % 3m a.r. % y/y in % Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Jan-17 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Extraction of oil and gas # Manufacturing Electricity supply # Intermediate goods # Capital goods # Consumer goods # Energy goods # Source: Statistics Norway and DNB Markets Norway: Manufacturing production 25=1. Seasonally adjusted 75 Jan-3 Jul-6 Jan-1 Jul-13 Jan-17 Capital Consumer Intermediate Norway: Manufacturing production 25=1. Seasonally adjusted 4 Jan-7 Jan-9 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Pulp&paper Chemicals Metals Machinery Yards Furniture Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Daily Macro Brief page 2

21 USA: Trade deficit widened sharply in January Exports increased.6% m/m in January, after surging in December Imports rose 2.3% m/m in January, a little more than the previous months The trade deficit widened to USD48.5bn in January as expected, after shrinking to USD44.3 in December. Assessment: The deficit widened sharply, in line with expectations. Might be related to Chinese new years and should pick up in February USA: Foreign trade Bill. USD, seas. adjusted Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Exports Imports Balance (rha) Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Trade balance Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Balance, bn. USD Canada Mexico EU Japan China Other Exports, % m/m Imports, % m/m ex oil, m/m Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Daily Macro Brief page 21

22 USA: Trade balance, details USA: Trade balance Bn. USD. Total last 12 months -1 Jan-2 Jan-7 Jan-12 Jan-17 Japan China Canada Mexico EMU Other Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets USA: Trade balance Bill. USD, not seas. adjusted -4 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 China Canada EMU Japan Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Daily Macro Brief page 22

23 EMU: Q4 GDP revised with details GDP growth rose by.4% q/q in Q4, as stated by the previous estimate. The German and French GDP rose both by.4% q/q, the Italian by.2% and the Spanish.7%. Household consumption and government consumption rose by.4% q/q. Gross investments rose.6%. Net exports subtracted.1pp from growth, while inventories added.1pp Assessment: Domestic demand is driving growth. Private consumption has for a while been the major driver for growth and is expected to slow with higher inflation EMU: GDP Percentage change -12 Q4 24 Q4 28 Q4 212 Q4 216 q/q sa annualised Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets y/y EMU: GDP q/q contribution to grow th in pct. points -.4 Q4 214 Q2 215 Q4 215 Q2 216 Q4 216 Private cons. Public cons. GFCF Net Exports Inventories GDP Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Daily Macro Brief page 23

24 EMU: Q4 GDP with details EZ core: GDP, seas. adjusted 8 Percent change since 28Q Q2 28 Q2 21 Q2 212 Q2 214 Q2 216 EZ Germany France Netherlands Austria Finland Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets EZ periphery: GDP, seas. adjusted Percent change since 28Q Q2 28 Q2 21 Q2 212 Q2 214 Q2 216 Portugal Greece Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Italy Spain EMU: GDP Change q/q %, sa Change y/y in % Q1 216 Q2 216 Q3 216 Q4 216 Q2 216 Q3 216 Q4 216 Private cons um ption Public cons um ption Gros s inves tm ents Stock inves tm ents (contr.) Exports Im ports Net exports (contr.) Daily Macro Brief page 24

25 Germany: Industrial orders plunged in January Manufacturing orders fell 7.4% m/m in January. Expected -2.5%. December growth unrevised at 5.2% Underlying trend, measured as 3m/3m growth, fell sharply to.8% a.r. down from 17.2pp in December The largest fall was in the domestic market, but also export orders fell Assessment: Very volatile data and a very weak figure after a surge the previous month. Disregarding the latest reading, development over some time is pointing gradually upwards. Germany: Manufacturing Per cent, m/m Per cent, y/y 3m/3m orders, volume, sa Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Jan-17 Total Domestic market Export market Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Germany: Manufacturing orders Seasonally adjusted volume, 25=1 85 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Total Domestic Exports Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Daily Macro Brief page 25

26 Germany: Orders and production 3 Germany: Manufacturing activity Percent change y/y Jan-97 Jan-2 Jan-7 Jan-12 Jan-17 New orders Production Source: Thomson Datastream/ DNB Markets Daily Macro Brief page 26

27 UK: House prices slightly up Halifax s home price index rose.1% m/m in February. Expected up.3% (Reuters). Annual growth rose from 3.4% to 4.8%. Nationwide s home price index rose.6% m/m in February. Annual growth up slightly from 4.3 to 4.5%. Assessment: House price growth still remain robust even though the annual rate is lower than in spring 216. Halifax point out that house prices are supported by an ongoing shortage of property for sale, low levels of housebuilding, and exceptionally low interest rates. UK: Home prices Percent, y/y Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Halifax Nationwide Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Percent, m/m UK: Home prices Per cent, y/y -6 Feb-11 Feb-14 Feb-17 Halifax Nationwide Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Daily Macro Brief page 27

28 Japan: GDP revised up in Q4 Japanese GDP rose by.3% q/q in Q4,.1pp higher than the first estimate, but slightly lower than the consensus estimate (.4.%, Reuters). Investments were revised up by.6pp to.8%. Public consumption and inventories were revised down by.1pp. Assessment: Decent GDP growth in Japan. 12 Japan: GDP Q4 26 Q4 211 Q4 216 q/q saar, % y/y % Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Japan: GDP q/q in % (saar) Q4 214 Q2 215 Q4 215 Q2 216 Q4 216 Private cons. Non-res. private invest. Net exports Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Public demand Inventories Other Daily Macro Brief page 28

29 Japan: GDP details Japan: Nat.accounts q/q, sa, % y/y, % Q1 216 Q2 216 Q3 216 Q4 216 Q2 216 Q3 216 Q4 216 Private consumption Public consumption Gross investments Public Housing Other private Stock investments (%GDP) Exports Imports Net exports (%GDP) GDP Memo: GDP deflator Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Daily Macro Brief page 29

30 EURUSD EURGBP EURCHF EURSEK USDGBP USDJPY USDSEK USDCNY EURNOK USDNOK SEKNOK CHFNOK JPYNOK OSEBX OMX DAX Stoxx 6 FTSE 25 Dow Jones NASDAQ S&P 5 Nikkei 225 Hang Seng Shanghai USA Germany Japan Norway Sweden Italy Spain Markets: Overview NOK strengthened after central bank survey Stock and bond market movements were mixed and limited yesterday. The NOK strengthened in the wake of Norges Bank s regional network survey yesterday. The pound sterling weakened, partly due to a vote in Parliament on the prime minister s right to start formal Brexit talks. 1.5 FX, change in percent since 7 March 7:19* Equity indices 2 1 year sov. bond yield, change in bp since 7 March 7:19* EUR USD NOK *GMT +1 Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets % from previous to last close % since last close Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets *GMT +1 **Norway, Sweden, Italy, Spain: Change in bp from previous to last close Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Daily Macro Brief page 3

31 Markets Equities Mar-1 17:55 Mar-2 13:2 Mar-2 17:55 Mar-3 13:2 Europe Mar-3 17:55 Mar-6 13:2 Mar-6 17:55 Mar-7 13: Mar-7 17: Mar-3 14:15 Mar-3 21:15 Mar-6 14:5 USA Mar-6 21:5 Mar-7 15: Mar-7 22:25 Oslo Stock Exchange *GMT +1 Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets EURO STOXX 5 (rha) S&P 5 *GMT +1 Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets Dow Jones (rha) Mar-2 7:5 Mar-3 3:4 Mar-3 7:4 Hang Seng *GMT +1 Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets Mar-6 3:3 Asia Mar-6 7:3 Mar-7 3:2 Mar-7 7:2 Nikkei 225 (rha) Mar-8 3: Mar-8 7: Mar-3 14:15 Mar-3 21:15 *GMT +1 Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets Mar-6 14:5 VIX Mar-6 21:5 Mar-7 15:4 Mar-7 22:25 Daily Macro Brief page 31

32 Markets FX Mar-2 11:2 EURUSD and USDJPY Mar-3 11:2 Mar-6 7:2 Mar-7 7: Mar-8 7: Mar-2 11:2 Mar-3 11:2 EURCHF and EURGBP Mar-6 7:2 Mar-7 7: Mar-8 7:2 *GMT +1 Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets EURUSD USDJPY (inv,rha) *GMT +1 Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets EURCHF EURGBP (rha) EURNOK and USDNOK EURSEK and SEKNOK Mar-2 11:2 Mar-3 11:2 Mar-6 7:2 Mar-7 7: Mar-8 7: Mar-2 11:2 Mar-3 11:2 Mar-6 7:2 Mar-7 7: Mar-8 7:2 *GMT +1 Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets EURNOK USDNOK (rha) *GMT +1 Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets EURSEK SEKNOK (inv,rha) Daily Macro Brief page 32

33 Change in bp since 7 March Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Markets Fixed income Mar-7 8:5 Mar-7 11:35 *GMT +1 Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets 1 sovereign bond yields USA Mar-7 15:5 Mar-7 18:35 Germany (rha) Mar-7 22: Mar-8 7: Mar-7 8:5 Mar-7 11:35 *GMT +1 Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets 1 sovereign bond yields Italy Mar-7 15:5 Mar-7 18:35 Spain (rha) Mar-7 22: Mar-8 7: FRA: NOK and EUR Change in bp left axis % m Nibor NOK, change in bp NOK 8-Mar Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets EUR, change in bp EUR 8-Mar. 6-Dec 6-Jan 6-Feb 6-Mar Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets Daily Macro Brief page 33

34 Markets Miscellaneous Japan: 1 year sovereign bond yield Dec 6-Jan 6-Feb 6-Mar Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets EURUSD 3m basis swap Dec 6-Jan 6-Feb 6-Mar Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets Apr 8-Jul 8-Oct 8-Jan 8-Apr 8-Jul 8-Oct 8-Jan Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets Spread over Bunds 1y, basis points France Italy Spain 57. Crude oil and gold Mar-2 6:25 Mar-3 6:35 Mar-6 6:5 Mar-7 7: Crude, $/barrel Gold, $/ounce (rha) *GMT +1 Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets Mar-8 7:1 Daily Macro Brief page 34

35 Markets Spot rates and forecasts Spot rates and forecasts FX 7 Last Today % In 1m Jun-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 FX 7 USD NOK USD/JPY AUD EUR/USD CAD EUR/GBP CHF EUR/DKK CNY EUR/SEK CZK EUR/CHF GBP EUR/NOK HKD USD/NOK KWD JPY/NOK LTL SEK/NOK NZD DKK/NOK RUB GBP/NOK SEK CHF/NOK SGD Daily Macro Brief page 35

36 Markets Interest rates NOK Prior Last SEK Prior Last USD Prior Last EUR Prior Last 1m m m m m m m m m m m m y m m y y y y y y y y y y.7.7 7y y y y y y Norw ay Prior Last SEK Prior Last US Prior Last Germany Prior Last NST478/d y y y y yld y yld y yld y yld US sprea US sprea y yld US spread Norw ay 3m nibor Interest rates Governm ent bonds Interest rate forecasts 1y sw ap Sw eden 3m libor 1y USA 3m libor sw ap 1y sw ap Germany 3m euribor 1y sw ap Jun Jun Jun Jun Sep Sep Sep Sep Mar Mar Mar Mar Daily Macro Brief page 36

37 Markets Miscellaneous Miscellaneous NOK sov. Prior Last Change Maturity year rem. NOK-index TWI Prior NST 35/d Last NST 36/d Oil price: (Ldn,cl) 1m NST 37/d SPOT NST473/d Gold price PM NST474/d AM: NST478/d Equities Today 7 % last NST478/d S&P % NST478/d Dow Jones % NOK FRA 3 mnd 6 mnd NOK NIBOR FTSE % Mar m.93 Stoxx % Jun m.99 DAX % Sep m 1.14 Nikkei % Dec OSEBX % Sources to all tables and graphics: Thomson Reuters, Thomson Datastream and DNB Markets Daily Macro Brief page 37

38 DNB Markets Macro Research Contact details Kjersti Haugland Chief Economist, EMU / kjersti.haugland@dnb.no Ole André Kjennerud Analyst, China and Japan / ole.kjennerud@dnb.no Jeanette Strøm Fjære Analyst, Norway and Sweden / jeanette.strom.fjare@dnb.no Kyrre Aamdal Senior Economist, Norway, Sweden, interest rates / kyrre.aamdal@dnb.no Knut A. Magnussen Senior Economist, USA, UK and Brazil / knut.magnussen@dnb.no Marit Øwre-Johnsen FX Analyst / marit.owre-johnsen@dnb.no Magne Østnor FX Strategist / magne.ostnor@dnb.no Daily Macro Brief page 38

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