Daily Macro Brief. Wednesday 6 September 2017 Kjersti Haugland, DNB Markets

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Daily Macro Brief. Wednesday 6 September 2017 Kjersti Haugland, DNB Markets"

Claud Foster
6 years ago
Views:

1 Daily Macro Brief Wednesday 6 September 2017 Kjersti Haugland, DNB Markets

2 Overview Key events today USA: ISM non-manufacturing, the composite PMI and the Beige Book will provide more information on the developments in economic activity in August, ahead of the upcoming Fed meeting. Consensus expects positive signals, with the ISM recovering again after a drop in July. Sweden: Industrial production and orders for July to be released. There are no consensus estimates for this highly volatile statistics, and the numbers tend to have limited impact on the markets. Also included in this report: Preview of ECB meeting tomorrow, with two scenarios for tapering communication and possible implications for the euro. See the attached calendar for details Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 2

3 Overview Key events since last report Norway: Housing prices continued to fall in August, and the annual growth rate has come down to 3.1%. The number of sales is quite stable, but the number of homes on the market is significantly higher than before. It will take time before the large inventories are cleared from the market, and we expect that the correction in housing prices will continue until the summer of EMU: Retail sales fell 0.3% m/m in July, after strong growth in previous months. Elsewhere, the Markit Composite PMI was confirmed as stable and high in August. A rise in the manufacturing PMI was balanced by a slightly lower non-manufacturing PMI. For details on market developments, see here See the attached calendar for other key figures Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 3

4 Norway: House prices continue to fall Existing home prices fell by 0.4% m/m (sa) and annual growth rate slowed further to 3.1% in August The underlying tendency (annualised 3m/3m rate) declined further to -5.3% The average Norwegian home costs NOK /m 2 (median = ) homes sold, down from in August 2016 Avg. selling time was 39 days to sell a home, up from 37 in August 2016 Assessment: House prices are declining. The fall is strongest for Oslo, but there is a clear weakening tendency across regions. We expect prices to continue on a downward trend until the summer of Norway: Existing home prices Aug-07 Aug-09 Aug-11 Aug-13 Aug-15 Aug-17 m/m in % Index (rha) Source: Eiendom Norge, FINN.no//Eiendomsverdi/DNB Markets m/m % y/y % 3m/3m May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Aug-17 Home prices Source: EFF/FINN/Eiendomsverdi/DNB Markets Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 4

5 Norway: Less regional differences Oslo: 3.2% y/y, oil capital Stavanger: -0.2% y/y Norway: Home prices Pct. change y/y -15 Aug-07 Aug-09 Aug-11 Aug-13 Aug-15 Aug-17 Oslo Bergen Trondheim Source: Eiendom Norge/ FINN/Eiendomsverdi/DNB Markets Norway: Home prices Pct. change y/y -15 Aug-07 Aug-09 Aug-11 Aug-13 Aug-15 Aug-17 Stavanger Tromsø Norway Source: Eiendom Norge/ FINN/Eiendomsverdi/DNB Markets Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 5

Norway: More homes for sale Number of homes sold down from 8 703 August 2016 to 8 631 in August

Advertised homes up from 10 299 in August 2016 to 11 657 in August 2017 (right chart). Home sales.

6 Norway: More homes for sale Number of homes sold down from August 2016 to in August 2017 (left chart). Advertised homes up from in August 2016 to in August 2017 (right chart). Home sales. Last month, actual (left) and advertised (right) Single homes Semidetached homes Appartments Source: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no and Eiendomsverdi Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 6

7 Norway: It takes more time to sell a unit 39 days in August 2017, up from 37 days in August 2016 Source: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no and Eiendomsverdi Number of days to sell a unit (from first advertisement to recorded sale) Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 7

8 Norway: Unsold homes remain relatively high The number of homes for sale is significantly higher than it was one year ago (see chart on the left hand side). The median unsold home has been on the market for about 66 days. This is slightly lower than August last year. See chart on the right hand side. Number of homes for sale, daily figures. Median time the unsold home has been on the market Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 8

9 EMU: Retail sales down in July Retail sales fell 0.3% m/m in July, more than the expected -0.1%. On the positive side, June growth was revised up by 0.1pp, to 0.6%. The underlying tendency shows a positive trend with a 3m/3m annual rate of 2.7% Assessment: The drop in retail sales in July came after a solid growth in June, and we have to see further declines in the months to come before the upward trend is broken EZ: Retail Sales Seasonally adjusted volume 94 Jul-11 Jul-13 Jul-15 Jul-17 Source: Thomson Datastream / DNB Markets Retail sales, % m/m Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 3m/3m EMU Germany France Italy Auto sales, ua Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 9

10 EMU: Final Composite PMI stable and high The PMI service index ended at 55.7 in August, down 0.2p from the flash estimate and down 0.7p from July. The composite index came in at 55.7, down 0.1p from flash and unchanged from July. Assessment: The composite index is still at a solid level and is consistent with GDP growth around 0.6% q/q in Q3. But services are moving downwards. 60 EZ: PMI Composite Manufacturing Services Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets 65 EZ: PMI services Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Germany France Spain Italy Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 10

11 EMU: PMIs indicate 0.7% GDP growth EMU: Services PMI Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Aug-17 Flash Final Total New business Employment Output prices Input prices Existing business Germany France Italy Spain Source: Markit. The total is not a w eighted sum of subindices Euro zone: GDP and PMI Q Q Q GDP (% q/q, rha) PMI-Comp. GDP-est. (rha) Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 11

12 Rate meeting ECB, Thursday 7 September 1345 (I) ECB to signal QE extension, but uncertainty high Rates unchanged, but guidance adjusted: ECB will keep rates unchanged. Draghi has signaled that discussions on the future of asset purchases will take place in the fall. In line with this we believe Draghi will signal that purchases will continue in H1 2018, but at a slower pace. Purchases expected down from 60 to 40bn/m in early High uncertainty: The strong EUR has increased risk that ECB will delay announcement of QE tapering to October, and instead try to talk down the EUR. Inflation below target: Inflation has been stronger than ECB forecasted in June. Core-CPI was 1.2% y/y in August, unchanged from July. A strong EUR could weigh on inflation ahead. Inflation is well below target, which argues for ECB to extend QE into Activity growth strong: Euro-zone continue to show a strong broad-based recovery, with high growth in retail sales, unemployment and industrial output. Forecast: We expect an upward revision to growth forecasts, but a modest downward revision to coreinflation due to a stronger EUR. TW EUR is about 4% stronger since cut-off for last staff forecasts. Reuters survey: All surveyed analysts expect unchanged rates. 15 of 66 asked economists expect the ECB to announce a reduction in QE at the September meeting. 5 analysts expect the announcement in December, the rest in October ECB: Monetary Policy Actual/forecast 23 August Aug-11 Aug-16 Aug-21 Repo Deposit Assets, bn (rha) Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 12 0

13 Rate meeting ECB, Thursday 7 September 1345 (II) Economic data still strong, and sentiment good EZ: PMI 60 EZ: PMI, manufacturing Sep-07 Sep-12 Sep-17 Total Manufacturing Services Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets EZ: Unemployment Jul-12 Oct-13 Jan-15 Apr-16 Jul-17 m/m, 1000 m/m, 3m mav % (rha) Source Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep Germany France Spain Italy Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Unemployment Percent of labour force 0 Jul-07 Jul-12 Jul-17 EZ Germany Spain Spain<25y Greece Greece <25y Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 13

14 Rate meeting ECB, Thursday 7 September 1345 (III) Inflation still below target, calls for QE-extension Eurozone CPI Percent change y/y -1 Jul-07 Jul-12 Jul-17 Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Total Core Services EMU: Consumer prices Percentage change, y/y % -2.0 Aug-07 Aug-12 Aug-17 Germany France Italy Spain Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 14

15 Rate meeting ECB, Thursday 7 September 1345 (IV) Market sentiment good.but strong EUR 0.20 EZ: Signal and market rates 150 Credit risk Credit default sw aps 5y, bp Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Repo o/n 3m euribor 1y euribor Source Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Euro Exchange Rate 105 Last meeting marked Sep-14 1-Sep-15 1-Sep-16 Nom.Eff.Exch.Rate (ECB) Source: Thomson Datastream / DNB Markets EURUSD (rha) 0 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 EZ-11 Itraxx snr fin itraxx Europe Main Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets ECB: Market Operations, bn Jun-07 Jun-12 Jun-17 Ordinary Refinancing (MRO) Long-Term (LTRO) Source Thomson Datastream / DNB Markets Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 15

16 Rate meeting ECB, Thursday 7 September 1345 (VI) Strong EUR increases uncertainty of outcome The strong EUR increases the risk that ECB waits until October/December before signaling QE-tapering. Due to this we outline two scenarios for this weeks meeting: Draghi announces QE extension and tapering of asset purchases from 60 to 40bn/m in early 2018 (hawkish): Will probably surprise market as most market participants expect QE extension to be announced in October. Should open up for further EUR strength and expect EURUSD to see a new test above Draghi signals that ECB have discussed QE extensions, but does not hint of tapering. Instead Draghi expresses concerns about the pace of EUR appreciation (dovish): Should see EUR correcting lower, but weakening could be short lived. «Buy on dip»-interest will limit downside if market still believes that tapering will be announced later in «the fall». Market will watch revisions of inflation forecasts for expectations about future tapering announcement Net short EUR Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 EUR has strengthened more than fundamentals and positioning is stretched. Could make EUR more vulnerable for a correction lower if Draghi surprises market as Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 16 «dovish» EURUSD and 10Y interest rate diff Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb Aug-17 10Y IR diff. (USD-EUR, inv.),pp Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Net speculative posistions EURUSD EUR net position,1000 Net long EUR EURUSD (ra) EURUSD (ra)

17 OSEBX OMX DAX Stoxx 600 FTSE 250 Dow Jones NASDAQ S&P 500 Nikkei 225 Hang Seng Shanghai USA Germany EURUSD EURGBP France Japan Norway Sweden EURCHF EURSEK USDGBP USDJPY USDSEK USDCNY EURNOK USDNOK SEKNOK CHFNOK JPYNOK Italy Spain Markets: Overview Geopolitical worries weigh on the market Worries regarding the situation on the Korean peninsula is weighing on the market. US stock markets fell yesterday, and Asian markets continue down today. Long-term interest rates have edged down. The Japanese yen, commonly perceived as a safe haven currency, has appreciated. The NOK has strengthened on the back of a rise in the oil price. Brent Blend is currently trading just above 53 dollars per barrel FX, change in percent since 05 September 06:48* Equity indices year sov. bond yield, change in bp since 05 September 06:48* EUR USD NOK** *GMT +2 **Note that higher bars indicate weaker NOK % from previous to last close % since last close *GMT +2 **Norway, Sweden, Italy, Spain: Change in bp from previous to last close Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 17

18 Markets Equities Aug-30 17:55 Aug-31 13:20 Aug-31 17:55 Sep-01 13:20 Europe Sep-01 17:55 Sep-04 13:20 Sep-04 17:55 13: : Aug-31 14:15 Aug-31 21:15 Sep-01 14:50 USA Sep-01 21:50 15: :25 Oslo Stock Exchange *GMT +2 EURO STOXX 50 (rha) S&P 500 *GMT +2 Dow Jones (rha) Aug-31 07:30 Sep-01 03:20 Sep-01 07:20 Sep-04 03:10 Hang Seng *GMT +2 Asia Sep-04 07:10 03:00 07:00 Nikkei 225 (rha) Sep-06 02: Sep-06 06: Aug-31 14:15 Aug-31 21:15 *GMT +2 Sep-01 14:50 VIX Sep-01 21:50 15:40 22:25 Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 18

19 Markets FX Aug-31 08:50 EURUSD and USDJPY Sep-01 08:50 Sep-04 06:50 06: Sep-06 06: Aug-31 08:50 Sep-01 08:50 EURCHF and EURGBP Sep-04 06:50 06: Sep-06 06:50 *GMT +2 EURUSD USDJPY (inv,rha) *GMT +2 EURCHF EURGBP (rha) EURNOK and USDNOK EURSEK and SEKNOK Aug-31 08:50 Sep-01 08:50 Sep-04 06:50 06: Sep-06 06: Aug-31 08:50 Sep-01 08:50 Sep-04 06:50 06: Sep-06 06:50 *GMT +2 EURNOK USDNOK (rha) *GMT +2 EURSEK SEKNOK (inv,rha) Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 19

20 Change in bp since 05 September Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Markets Fixed income :50 12:20 *GMT sovereign bond yields USA 15:50 19:20 Germany (rha) 23: Sep-06 06: :50 12:20 *GMT sovereign bond yields Italy 15:50 19:20 Spain (rha) 23: Sep-06 06: FRA: NOK and EUR Change in bp left axis NOK, change in bp NOK 6-Sep EUR, change in bp EUR 6-Sep % 3m Nibor Jun 6-Jul 6-Aug 6-Sep Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 20

21 Markets Miscellaneous Japan: 10 year sovereign bond yield EURUSD 3m basis swap Jun 6-Jul 6-Aug 6-Sep Jun 6-Jul 6-Aug 6-Sep Spread over Bunds 10y, basis points 0 7-Oct 7-Jan 7-Apr 7-Jul 7-Oct 7-Jan 7-Apr 7-Jul France Italy Spain Aug-31 05:55 *GMT +2 Sep-01 06:05 Crude oil and gold Crude, $/barrel Sep-04 06:15 06:25 Gold, $/ounce (rha) Sep-06 06:35 Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 21

22 Markets Spot rates and forecasts Spot rates and forecasts FX 0700 Last Today % In 1m Nov-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 FX 0700 USD NOK USD/JPY AUD EUR/USD CAD EUR/GBP CHF EUR/DKK CNY EUR/SEK CZK EUR/CHF GBP EUR/NOK HKD USD/NOK KRW JPY/NOK BRL SEK/NOK NZD DKK/NOK RUB GBP/NOK SEK CHF/NOK SGD Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 22

23 Markets Interest rates NOK Prior Last SEK Prior Last USD Prior Last EUR Prior Last 1m m m m m m m m m m m m y m m y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y Norw ay Prior Last SEK Prior Last US Prior Last Germany Prior Last NST479/d y y y y yld y yld y yld y yld US sprea US sprea y yld US spread Norw ay 3m nibor Interest rates Governm ent bonds Interest rate forecasts 10y sw ap Sw eden 3m libor 10y USA 3m libor sw ap 10y sw ap Germany 3m euribor 10y sw ap Nov Nov Nov Nov Feb Feb Feb Feb Aug Aug Aug Aug Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 23

24 Markets Miscellaneous Miscellaneous NOK sov. Prior Last Change Maturity year rem. NOK-index TWI Prior NST 37/d Last NST 38/d Oil price: (Ldn,cl) 1m NST 39/d SPOT NST473/d Gold price PM NST474/d AM: NST479/d Equities Today 0700 % last NST479/d S&P % NST479/d Dow Jones % NOK FRA 3 mnd 6 mnd NOK NIBOR FTSE % Sep m 0.68 Stoxx % Dec m 0.80 DAX % Mar m 0.88 Nikkei % Jun OSEBX % Sources to all tables and graphics: Thomson Reuters, Thomson Datastream and DNB Markets Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 24

25 Calendar Tuesday - Wednesday Importance GMT+2 Country Event Period Unit Last Cons. DNB Actual Tuesday 05 September 03:45 China Caixin Services PMI Aug Index :45 Switzerland GDP q/q % 0.1r :30 Sweden PMI Services Aug Index :15 Switzerland CPI Aug y/y % :50 France Markit Composite PMI Aug Index :55 Germany Markit Composite PMI Aug Index :00 EMU Markit Services PMI Aug Index :00 EMU Markit Composite PMI Aug Index :30 UK CIPS Services PMI Aug Index :00 EMU Retail Sales Jul m/m % 0.6r :00 Norway Housing Prices Aug y/y % :00 USA Employment Trends Aug Index :00 USA Factory Orders Jul m/m % Wednesday 06 September 08:00 Germany Industrial Orders Jul m/m % :30 Sweden Industrial production Jul m/m % :30 Sweden Industrial Orders Jul y/y % :30 USA International Trade Jul bn USD :45 USA Markit Composite PMI Aug Index :00 USA ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Aug Index :00 USA Beige Book Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 25

26 DNB Markets Macro Research Contact details Kjersti Haugland Chief Economist, Euro area / kjersti.haugland@dnb.no Jeanette Strøm Fjære Economist, Norway and Sweden / jeanette.strom.fjare@dnb.no Ole A. Kjennerud Economist, China and Japan / ole.kjennerud@dnb.no Knut A. Magnussen Senior Economist, USA, UK and Brazil / knut.magnussen@dnb.no Magne Østnor FX Strategist / magne.ostnor@dnb.no Marit Øwre-Johnsen FX Analyst / marit.owre-johnsen@dnb.no Kyrre Aamdal Senior Economist, Norway, Sweden, interest rates / kyrre.aamdal@dnb.no Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 26

27 Important/Disclaimer This note (the Note ) must be seen as marketing material and not as an investment recommendation within the meaning of the Norwegian Securities Trading Act of 2007 paragraph 3-10 and the Norwegian Securities Trading Regulation 2007/06/29 no The Note has been prepared by DNB Markets, a division of DNB Bank ASA, a Norwegian bank organized under the laws of the Kingdom of Norway (the Bank ), for information purposes only. The Note shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. The Bank, its affiliates, and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (individually, each a DNB Party ; collectively, DNB Parties ) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Note. DNB Parties are not responsible for any errors or omissions, regardless of the cause, nor for the results obtained from the use of the Note, nor for the security or maintenance of any data input by the user. The Note is provided on an as is basis. DNB PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE NOTE S FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED OR THAT THE NOTE WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. In no event shall DNB Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the Note, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. Any opinions expressed herein reflect the Bank s judgment at the time the Note was prepared and DNB Parties assume no obligation to update the Note in any form or format. The Note should not be relied on and is not a substitute for the skill, judgment and experience of the user, its management, employees, advisors and/or clients when making investment and other business decisions. No DNB Party is acting as fiduciary or investment advisor in connection with the dissemination of the Note. While the Note is based on information obtained from public sources that the Bank believes to be reliable, no DNB Party has performed an audit of, nor accepts any duty of due diligence or independent verification of, any information it receives. Confidentiality rules and internal rules restrict the exchange of information between different parts of the Bank and this may prevent employees of DNB Markets who are preparing the Note from utilizing or being aware of information available in DNB Markets/the Bank that may be relevant to the recipients of the Note. The Note is not an offer to buy or sell any security or other financial instrument or to participate in any investment strategy. Distribution of material like the Note is in certain jurisdictions restricted by law. Persons in possession of the Note should seek further guidance regarding such restrictions before distributing the Note. The Note is for clients only, and not for publication, and has been prepared for information purposes only by DNB Markets - a division of DNB Bank ASA registered in Norway with registration number NO (the Register of Business Enterprises) under supervision of the Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway (Finanstilsynet), the Monetary Authority of Singapore, and on a limited basis by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority of the UK, and the Financial Supervisory Authority of Sweden. Details about the extent of our regulation by local authorities outside Norway are available from us on request. Information about DNB Markets can be found at dnb.no. Additional information for clients in Singapore The Note has been distributed by the Singapore Branch of DNB Bank ASA. It is intended for general circulation and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of any product referred to in the Note, taking into account your specific financial objectives, financial situation or particular needs before making a commitment to purchase any such product. You have received a copy of the Note because you have been classified either as an accredited investor, an expert investor or as an institutional investor, as these terms have been defined under Singapore s Financial Advisers Act (Cap. 110) ( FAA ) and/or the Financial Advisers Regulations ( FAR ). The Singapore Branch of DNB Bank ASA is a financial adviser exempt from licensing under the FAA but is otherwise subject to the legal requirements of the FAA and of the FAR. By virtue of your status as an accredited investor or as an expert investor, the Singapore Branch of DNB Bank ASA is, in respect of certain of its dealings with you or services rendered to you, exempt from having to comply with certain regulatory requirements of the FAA and FAR, including without limitation, sections 25, 27 and 36 of the FAA. Section 25 of the FAA requires a financial adviser to disclose material information concerning designated investment products which are recommended by the financial adviser to you as the client. Section 27 of the FAA requires a financial adviser to have a reasonable basis for making investment recommendations to you as the client. Section 36 of the FAA requires a financial adviser to include, within any circular or written communications in which he makes recommendations concerning securities, a statement of the nature of any interest which the financial adviser (and any person connected or associated with the financial adviser) might have in the securities. Please contact the Singapore Branch of DNB Bank ASA at in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, the Note. The Note is intended for and is to be circulated only to persons who are classified as an accredited investor, an expert investor or an institutional investor. If you are not an accredited investor, an expert investor or an institutional investor, please contact the Singapore Branch of DNB Bank ASA at We, the DNB group, our associates, officers and/or employees may have interests in any products referred to in the Note by acting in various roles including as distributor, holder of principal positions, adviser or lender. We, the DNB group, our associates, officers and/or employees may receive fees, brokerage or commissions for acting in those capacities. In addition, we, the DNB group, our associates, officers and/or employees may buy or sell products as principal or agent and may effect transactions which are not consistent with the information set out in the Note. Additional Information, including for Recipients in the United States: The Note does not constitute an offer to sell or buy a security and does not include information, opinions, or recommendations with respect to securities of an issuer or an analysis of a security or an issuer. Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 27

Daily Macro Brief. Friday 29 December 2017 Kyrre Aamdal, DNB Markets

Daily Macro Brief. Friday 29 December 2017 Kyrre Aamdal, DNB Markets Daily Macro Brief Friday 29 December 2017 Kyrre Aamdal, DNB Markets Overview Key events today Norway: We expect Norges Bank to announce that daily NOK purchases will amount to 800m in January. Germany: