Daily Macro Brief. Monday 18 September 2017 Ole André Kjennerud, DNB Markets

Transcription

1 Daily Macro Brief Monday 18 September 2017 Ole André Kjennerud, DNB Markets

2 Overview Key events today EMU: Eurostat to release final CPI numbers for August. Headline CPI is expected to confirm that inflation increased from 1.3% to 1.5% y/y from July to August, while core-cpi is expected unchanged at 1.2% from July to August. Highlights the rest of the week: Tuesday: ZEW index from Germany Wednesday: FOMC interest rate meeting. Fed expected to announce balance sheet reduction at press conference. Retail sales from UK Thursday: Norges Bank and Bank of Japan interest rate meeting Friday: Markit composite flash PMI for EMU and USA. PM May speaks on relations with EU See the attached calendar for details Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 2

3 Overview Key events since last report USA: Retail sales ex. autos increased 0.2% m/m in August, thus missing expectations by 0.3pp. Elsewhere industrial output fell by 0.9% m/m in August, while consensus had expected a decline of 0.1%. The figures are likely to have been negatively affected by Hurricane Harvey, with Fed calculations indicating that Harvey could have knocked off as much as 0.75% off manufacturing output. In particular, about 10% of the US refinery capacity was side-lined. The slowdown should be regarded as temporary, and therefore something that the Fed can look past in its rate setting policy. For details on market developments, see here See the attached calendar for other key figures Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 3

4 USA: Retail sales weaker than expected Retail sales fell 0.2% m/m in August, vs an expected increase of 0.1%. July revised down from 0.6% to 0.3%. The retail control group (x autos, gasoline, building materials & food services) which is part of consumer demand in the national accounts, rose 0.2% m/m while consensus had expected a rise of 0.5% m/m. July revised from 0.5% to 0.4% Assessment: Somewhat weaker than expected, but likely that Harvey has pulled down consumption. Strong growth in previous months still leave real consumption on track for Q3 growth of around 2.5%, and the fundamentals labour market is improving and consumer confidence is at record highs point to a renewed acceleration in Q Retail sales Bill. USD. Seas. adjusted Aug-11 Aug-13 Aug-15 Aug-17 Total Ex cars (rha) USA: Retail sales Seasonally adjusted, m/m % -1.5 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Total Ex. autos Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 4

5 USA: Retail sales, main figures Retail sales bn $ sa m/m sa % y/y % Aug-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Total Motor vehicles/parts Ex. autos Ex. autos, gasoline, bldg materials Retail control Source: Thomson Datastream Retail sales ("core") Ex. autos, gasoline and building materials Bn. USD. Seasonally adjusted Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Retail and car sales USD bn. Seas. adjusted Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Retail Car sales (ra) Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 5

6 USA: Retail sales, details (I) Retail sales bn $ sa m/m sa % y/y % Aug-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Furniture etc Electronics etc Sporting goods/hobbies Building equipment Non store retailers of which: e- og postal trade Source: Thomson Datastream Retail sales Billion USD. Seasonally adjusted 6.0 Aug-11 Aug-13 Aug-15 Aug-17 Furniture Electronics Sport/hobby Retail sales Billion USD. Seasonally adjusted 19 Aug-11 Aug-13 Aug-15 Aug-17 Building equipment Non-store retailers (rha) e-trade (rha) Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 6

7 USA: Retail sales, details (II) Retail sales bn $ sa m/m sa % y/y % Aug-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Food/drink services Food and beverage General Merchandice Health/personal care Gasoline stations Clothing/accesories Div Source: Thomson Datastream Retail sales Billion USD. Seasonally adjusted 35 Aug-11 Aug-13 Aug-15 Aug-17 Food/bev. Food/drink services General merchandise Retail sales Billion USD. Seasonally adjusted 10 Aug-11 Aug-13 Aug-15 Aug-17 Gasoline Health Clothing Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 7

8 USA: Industrial output fell in August Industrial output fell 0.9% m/m in August, while consensus had expected a decline of 0.1% m/m. Manufacturing output, which is less volatile, declined by 0.3% m/m (expected up 0.3%) Capacity utilisation down to 76.1% (July revised up 0.2pp to 76.9%) Assessment: Reason to believe Hurricane Harvey is behind the surprising fall in both industrial and manufacturing production. According to Fed estimates Harvey knocked 0.75% off manufacturing output. Fed should look through weak numbers USA: Industrial production Seasonally adjusted volume change, m/m % -1.0 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Total Manufacturing US: Manufacturing Aug-82 Aug-89 Aug-96 Aug-03 Aug-10 Aug-17 Manufacturing prod y/y Capacity utilisation (rha) Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 8

9 US: Industrial production, details Industrial production Volume change m/m, s.a., % Volume change y/y % May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Total Manufacturing Durables Cars Non-durables Cons um ption goods Interm ediates Capacity utilis ation Source: Thom s on Datas tream/dnb Markets US: Production indices Seasonally adjusted Aug-11 Aug-14 Aug-17 Intermediates Consumption goods US: Production indices Seasonally adjusted 90 Aug-11 Aug-14 Aug-17 Durables Non-durables Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 9

10 US: Industrial output and GPD USA: Industrial output and GDP q/q in % (saar) Q Q Q Q GDP Ind. output (rha) Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 10

11 OSEBX OMX DAX Stoxx 600 FTSE 250 Dow Jones NASDAQ S&P 500 Nikkei 225 Hang Seng Shanghai USA Germany EURUSD EURGBP France Japan Norway Sweden EURCHF EURSEK USDGBP USDJPY USDSEK USDCNY EURNOK USDNOK SEKNOK CHFNOK JPYNOK Italy Spain Markets: Overview Stronger pound, weaker yen The pound continued to strengthen on Friday with EURGBP down 1.1% to 0.88 as traders has become more positive on GBP rates after the BoE on Thursday signalled it could raise interest rates to 0.5% later this year. Elsewhere the yen has declined with USDJPY rising by 0.7% to According to Japanese broadcaster NHK PM Shinzo Abe is evaluating to capitalize on recent increase in public support by holding a snap election as early as next month. NOK has strengthened on a broad basis, with EURNOK down 0.2% to FX, change in percent since 15 September 07:07* Equity indices year sov. bond yield, change in bp since 15 September 07:07* EUR USD NOK** **Note that higher bars indicate weaker NOK % from previous to last close % since last close **Norway, Sweden, Italy, Spain: Change in bp from previous to last close Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 11

12 Markets Equities Sep-11 17:55 Sep-12 13:20 Sep-12 17:55 Sep-13 13:20 Europe Sep-13 17:55 Sep-14 13:20 Sep-14 17:55 13: : Sep-13 14:15 Sep-13 21:15 Sep-14 14:50 USA Sep-14 21:50 15: :25 Oslo Stock Exchange EURO STOXX 50 (rha) S&P 500 Dow Jones (rha) Sep-12 05:10 Sep-12 09:10 Sep-13 05:00 Sep-13 09:00 Hang Seng Asia Sep-14 04:50 Sep-14 08:50 04:40 Nikkei 225 (rha) 08: Sep-18 06: Sep-13 14:15 Sep-13 21:15 Sep-14 14:50 VIX Sep-14 21:50 15:40 22:25 Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 12

13 Markets FX Sep-12 09:10 EURUSD and USDJPY Sep-13 09:10 Sep-14 09:10 09: Sep-18 07: Sep-12 09:10 Sep-13 09:10 EURCHF and EURGBP Sep-14 09:10 09: Sep-18 07:10 EURUSD USDJPY (inv,rha) EURCHF EURGBP (rha) EURNOK and USDNOK EURSEK and SEKNOK Sep-12 09:10 Sep-13 09:10 Sep-14 09:10 09: Sep-18 07: Sep-12 09:10 Sep-13 09:10 Sep-14 09:10 09: Sep-18 07:10 EURNOK USDNOK (rha) EURSEK SEKNOK (inv,rha) Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 13

14 Change in bp since 15 September Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Markets Fixed income :00 08:40 10 sovereign bond yields USA 12:10 15:40 Germany (rha) 19: Sep-18 01: :00 08:40 10 sovereign bond yields Italy 12:10 15:40 Spain (rha) 19: Sep-18 01: FRA: NOK and EUR Change in bp left axis NOK, change in bp NOK 18-Sep EUR, change in bp EUR 18-Sep % 3m Nibor Jun 16-Jul 16-Aug 16-Sep Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 14

15 Markets Miscellaneous Japan: 10 year sovereign bond yield EURUSD 3m basis swap Jun 16-Jul 16-Aug 16-Sep Jun 16-Jul 16-Aug 16-Sep Spread over Bunds 10y, basis points 0 19-Oct 19-Jan 19-Apr 19-Jul 19-Oct 19-Jan 19-Apr 19-Jul France Italy Spain 56.5 Crude oil and gold Sep-12 06:20 Sep-13 06:30 Sep-14 06:40 06:50 Crude, $/barrel Gold, $/ounce (rha) Sep-18 07:00 Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 15

16 Markets Spot rates and forecasts Spot rates and forecasts FX 0700 Last Today % In 1m Dec-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 FX 0700 USD NOK USD/JPY AUD EUR/USD CAD EUR/GBP CHF EUR/DKK CNY EUR/SEK CZK EUR/CHF GBP EUR/NOK HKD USD/NOK KRW JPY/NOK BRL SEK/NOK NZD DKK/NOK RUB GBP/NOK SEK CHF/NOK SGD Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 16

17 Markets Interest rates Interest rates NOK Prior Last SEK Prior Last USD Prior Last EUR Prior Last 1m m m m m m m m m m m m y m m y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y Governm ent bonds Norw ay Prior Last SEK Prior Last US Prior Last Germany Prior Last NST479/d y y y y yld y yld y yld y yld US sprea US sprea y yld US spread Norw ay 3m nibor Interest rate forecasts 10y sw ap Sw eden 3m libor 10y USA 3m libor sw ap 10y sw ap Germany 3m euribor 10y sw ap Dec Dec Dec Dec Mar Mar Mar Mar Sep Sep Sep Sep Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 17

18 Markets Miscellaneous Miscellaneous NOK sov. Prior Last Change Maturity year rem. NOK-index TWI Prior NST 37/d Last NST 38/d Oil price: (Ldn,cl) 1m NST 39/d SPOT NST473/d Gold price PM NST474/d AM: NST479/d Equities Today 0700 % last NST479/d S&P % NST479/d Dow Jones % NOK FRA 3 mnd 6 mnd NOK NIBOR FTSE % Sep m 0.69 Stoxx % Dec m 0.81 DAX % Mar m 0.89 Nikkei % Jun OSEBX % Sources to all tables and graphics: Thomson Reuters, Thomson Datastream and DNB Markets Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 18

19 Calendar Friday - Monday Importance GMT+2 Country Event Period Unit Last Cons. DNB Actual Friday 15 September 08:00 Norway Trade Balance Aug bn NOK 13.7r :00 EMU Trade Balance Jul bn EUR :00 EMU Wages Q2 y/y % 1.4r :30 USA NY Fed - Empire state Sep Index :30 USA Retail Sales Ex-Autos Aug m/m % 0.4r :30 USA Retail Sales Aug m/m % 0.3r :15 USA Industrial Output Aug m/m % 0.4r :15 USA Manufacturing output Aug m/m % :00 USA Business Inventories Jul m/m % :00 USA Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sent. Sep Index Monday 18 September 03:30 China China House Prices Aug y/y % :00 EMU Inflation Ex Food & Energy Final Aug y/y % :00 EMU Inflation, Final Aug y/y % :00 USA NAHB Housing Market Sep Index :00 UK BoE s Mark Carney gives lecture at IMF 22:00 USA Total Net TIC Flows Jul bn USD 7.7 Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 19

20 Calendar Tuesday - Wednesday Importance GMT+2 Country Event Period Unit Last Cons. DNB Actual Tuesday 19 September 11:00 Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Sep Index :30 USA Building Permits Aug m :30 USA Housing Starts Aug m :30 USA Export Prices Aug m/m % :30 USA Import Prices Aug m/m % Wednesday 20 September 01:50 Japan Trade Balance Aug bn JPY :30 UK Retail Sales Ex-Fuel Aug m/m % :30 UK Retail Sales Aug m/m % :00 Sweden Deputy Governor Floden talks about current monetary policy 16:00 USA Existing Home Sales Aug m :00 USA Fed Funds Target Rate % :30 USA Fed Press conference Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 20

21 Calendar Thursday - Friday Importance GMT+2 Country Event Period Unit Last Cons. DNB Actual Thursday 21 September Japan Bank of Japan Policy Balance Target % Japan Bank of Japan 10y Yield Target % :30 Sweden Minutes from Riksbanken 10:00 Norway Norges Bank rate meeting & MPR % :30 Norway Norges Bank Press conference 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims w/e :30 USA Philly Fed Business Sentiment Sep Index :00 USA Monthly Home Prices Jul y/y % :30 EMU ECB s Draghi speaks at a conference on financial stability 16:00 EMU Consumer Confidence, Flash Sep Index -1.5 Friday 22 September 01:50 Japan Foreign Bond Investment w/e bn JPY :00 EMU Composite Flash PMI Sep Index :00 Norway Governor Olsen gives a speech to students in Trondheim 12:00 UK CBI Trends - Orders Sep Index 13 12:15 Sweden Deputy Governor Floden talks about current monetary policy 15:30 USA Kansas Fed s George gives opening keynote at Energy conference 15:45 USA Markit Composite Flash PMI Sep Index 55.3 EMU Officials speaks at fin. stab conference, incl. ECB s Constancio and Riksbanken s Ingves UK PM May speaks on relationship with EU Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 21

22 DNB Markets Macro Research Contact details Kjersti Haugland Chief Economist, Euro area / kjersti.haugland@dnb.no Jeanette Strøm Fjære Economist, Norway and Sweden / jeanette.strom.fjare@dnb.no Ole A. Kjennerud Economist, China and Japan / ole.kjennerud@dnb.no Knut A. Magnussen Senior Economist, USA, UK and Brazil / knut.magnussen@dnb.no Magne Østnor FX Strategist / magne.ostnor@dnb.no Marit Øwre-Johnsen FX Analyst / marit.owre-johnsen@dnb.no Kyrre Aamdal Senior Economist, Norway, Sweden, interest rates / kyrre.aamdal@dnb.no Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 22

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