Daily Macro Brief. Monday 3 July 2017 Kjersti Haugland & Martin Vikenes, DNB Markets

Transcription

1 Daily Macro Brief Monday 3 July 217 Kjersti Haugland & Martin Vikenes, DNB Markets

2 Overview Key events today Several manufacturing PMIs are reported for Sweden, Norway, EMU, UK, and USA. Most important is the ISM Manufacturing PMI for USA. We believe it will increase from current level of 54.9 to For more see preview. In addition, the EMU unemployment rate for May is announced. Consensus expects 9.2%, down.1pp from the previous month. Highlights the rest of the week: Tuesday: Sweden s Riksbank announces its policy rate. We expect an unchanged policy but that the low point of the rate path will be raised by 3bp to -.5%. Hence, we expect the downside bias to be removed. See full preview Wednesday: FOMC Meeting Minutes may reveal more on how Fed judged the recent low inflation figures. Thursday: USA ISM non-manufacturing PMI. Expected to edge down from a solid level. Friday: USA Non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate. We expect employment to increase from 138k to 22k, and unemployment rate to remain at 4.3%. See the attached calendar for details Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 2

3 Overview Key events since last report Norway: Registered unemployment was unchanged at 2.6% of the labour force in June, as we expected. The figure is unadjusted, and the seasonally adjusted trend is heading downwards. The credit indicator, C2, rose 5.4% y/y in May, up from 5.1% in April. The monthly consumer confidence index rose 1.8p to 12.1 in June. Level is almost 2 standard deviations above the historical average. Retail sales were up more than expected in May. Retail sales x cars rose 1.3% m/m in May and goods consumption grew 1.7% since April, almost 4% more than the corresponding figure for 216. USA: Core inflation, as measured by the deflator for private consumption excl. food and energy (core PCE), increased.1% m/m and was up 1.4% y/y in April, vs. 1.5% in March. Consumption growth was weaker than expected. EMU: June inflation (flash estimates) declined to 1.3% y/y while core inflation edged up to 1.2% For details on market developments, see here See the attached calendar for other key figure Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 3

4 Norway: Retail sales up more than expected Retail sales x cars rose 1.3% m/m in May. Consensus was.%. Trend (3m/3m a.r.) rose to 8.9%, y/y rate edged up.3pp to 2.6% Goods consumption, which also includes fuels, electricity and cars rose 1.7% m/m, but was 3.9% higher than in May 216 Assessment: Retail sales has been edging up recently, and todays figures support the rising trend. But figures are volatile and we expect a more subdued growth the coming months Norway: Retail sales Seasonally adjusted volume index. 21 =1-8 1 May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15 May-16 May-17 3m/3m, a.r. in % Source: Statistics Norway/DNB Markets Index (rha) Norway: Goods consumption Seasonally adjusted volume index. 25= May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15 May-16 May-17 3m/3m, a.r. in % Source: Statistics Norway/DNB Markets Index (rha) Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 4

5 Norway: Retail sales/goods consumption Goods consumption and auto sales Seasonally adjusted 1 8 May-7 May-12 May-17 Consumption Source: Statistics Norway/DNB Markets 1 auto vehicles (rha) Retail sales Seasonally adjusted 9 May-7 May-12 May-17 Nonspecialised stores Source: Statistics Norway/DNB Markets Specialised stores Norway - Consumption indicators %, m/m %, y/y %, 3m a.r. Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 May-17 Goods consumption index (sa) Retail sales index (sa) New car registrations (sa) Source: Statistics Norway/DNB Markets Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 5

6 Norway: Consumer sentiment at high levels Consumer confidence rose 1.8p to 12.1 in June. Level is almost 2 standard deviations above the historical average. All included category indices rose, except unemployment. Assessment: Still strong consumer confidence pointing to stronger consumption growth in 217, after a weak 216. Not very strong correlation though Norway: Consumer confidence ForbrukerMeteret (Opinion), w ith long-term avg Source: ForbrukerMeteret fra Opinion/DNB Markets Norwegian consumer confidence Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 m/m, pp Total Personal economy prev. 12m Personal economy next 12m* Norway's economy last 12m Norway's economy next 12m* Unemployment in 12m* Saving in 12 m* Household finances * Part of the total index Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 6

7 Norway: More optimistic on nation s economy 2 Norway: Consumer confidence ForbrukerMeteret (Opinion Perduco) 3 Norway: Consumer confidence ForbrukerMeteret (Opinion Perduco) Jun-9 Jun-11 Jun-13 Jun-15 Jun-17 Personal economy, last 12m Next 12 months Source: Opinion Perduco/DNB Markets Jun-9 Jun-11 Jun-13 Jun-15 Jun-17 Nation's economy Unemploym. in 12m (inv, rha) Source: Opinion Perduco/DNB Markets Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 7

8 Norway: Unemployment fell in June Registered unemployment fell by 6 persons from April to May, adjusted for seasonal variations. Gross unemployment, which includes people on measures, fell by 11. The unadjusted unemployment rate was unchanged at 2.6%, as expected. Assessment: Unemployment declines for the seventh consecutive month, confirming that the labour market is improving. Despite the declining unemployment rate there is still substantial ample capacity in the labour market. 3 Norway: Gross unemployment 1 (sa). Change m/m and level Norway: Unemployed 1, sa Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Unemployed Measures Level (rha) Jun-7 Jun-12 Jun-17 Reg.+measures Reg. LFS Source: Thomsen Datastream/DNB Markets Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 8

9 Norway: Lower regional/occupational variations Norway: Registered unemployment Percentage y/y change, 3-m. moving average -2 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 South East Inland West Middle North Source: NAV/Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Norway: Registered unemployment Percentage y/y change, 3-m. moving average -2 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Total Retail trade Construction Manuf. Engineers Services Source: NAV/Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Labour Market Level m/m y/y NAV Jun-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jun-17 Jun-17 1 persons: Gros s unem ploym ent, s a Reg. unem ployed, s a On m eas ures, s a Per cent of labour force: Reg. unem ployed, ua Source: Thom s on Datas tream/dnb Markets Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 9

10 Norway: Credit growth remains high The credit indicator (C2) rose 5.4% y/y in May, up from 5.1% in April. Household credit growth was 6.7% y/y,.2pp higher than in April Corporate credit growth jumped to 3.% y/y Assessment: Household credit growth edged up last month and remains at a relatively high rate. Along with lower income growth this results in a rise in the already high debt ratio among Norwegian households. Stricter regulation of household mortgages from 1 January is expected to curb growth this year. Domestic credit Bn. NOK Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Total (C2) Municipalities Corporates Households Credit by sector (C2) Percent change year/year y/y in % -5 May-7 May-9 May-11 May-13 May-15 May-17 Total Enterprises Households Source: Statistics Norway/Thomson Datastream//DNB Markets Kilde: Thomson Datastream/SSB/DnBNOR Markets Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 1

11 USA: Rising income growth in May Personal income rose.4% m/m and 3.5% y/y in May Personal spending Real spending up.1% m/m, down from.2% in April. The savings rate increased by.4pp to 5.5% Assessment: Well in line with expectations. consumption will be substantially stronger than in Q1, but this is due to a strong March figure. USA: Personal consumption Per cent, m/m May-15 Nov-15 May-16 Nov-16 May-17 Nominal Real USA: Household sector Per cent -6 May-7 May-12 May-17 Real income,y/y Consumption, y/y Savings Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 11

12 USA: PCE inflation slowed in annual terms Core inflation, as measured by the deflator for private consumption excl. food and energy (core PCE), increased.1% m/m and was up 1.4% y/y in May, vs. 1.5% in April. The headline PCE deflator rose.1 m/m and was up 1.4% y/y Assessment: Special conditions, such as a sharp fall in the price of telecommunications services, have lowered inflation. There is reason to believe that the decline in core inflation is temporary and that the negative effects will decrease -1-2 May-7 May-12 May-17 USA: Inflation m/m sa % y/y % Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 PCE-deflator ex/ food and energy CPI, headline ex/ food and energy USA: PCE deflator Percent change y/y Total Core Target Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 12

13 Preview: Monday 3 July 16: (GMT+2) USA: ISM, manufacturing Previous month: ISM manufacturing up.1 to 54.9 in May, vs expected June: According to Reuters, the ISM index is expected to stay almost unchanged at 55.. The lowest estimate is 54.5, the highest is Our estimate is: Regional indicators points at a moderate upward correction this month. The Richmond and NY Fed surveys rose, while the Philly Fed fell. 15 US: Manuf. production and ISM 65 3 USA: Regional indices Standard deviations from average Jun-7 Jun-12 Jun-17 Manuf. prod. y/y, %. ISM (ra) -3 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Richmond New York Philadelphia Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 13

14 EMU: Rising core inflation According to Eurostat s flash estimate, inflation (HICP) fell by.5pp to 1.4% y/y in May, while consensus had expected a decline to 1.2% Core inflation rose by.2pp to 1.2% y/y,.2pp lower than consensus Assessment: Core inflation rose in June. Market sentiment points to QE tapering which is somewhat supported by this figure. Energy prices are a major contributor to headline inflation, but this will change in the second half of 217. Technical: The flash estimate rarely deviates from the final figure by more than.2 percentage points. -1 Jun-7 Jun-12 Jun-17 m/m % y/y % "Flash" EMU: Inflation (HICP) Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Total Goods Food & non-alcoholic beverages Alcohol & tobacco Energy Services Excl. energy, food, alcohol & tobacco Excl. energy & unprocessed food (core) Eurozone CPI Percent change y/y Total Core Services Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 14

15 Preview (I): Monetary policy decision 4 July 9:3 (GMT+1) Sweden: Riksbanken to remove downside bias April meeting: Asset purchases extended by SEK 15bn in H2-17 to total 29bn. Policy rate unchanged at -.5%. Low point of rate path increased by 3bp to Development since Apr: Inflation above expectation, SEK remains weak and resource utilization still strong, although Q1 growth disappointed somewhat Remove downside bias: We expect Riksbanken to raise rate path for the first 12 months removing the downside bias due to inflation above expectations, ECB turning a bit more hawkish and political risks reduced in Europe. Expansionary policy will continue with QE throughout 217 and a rate hike is a long way ahead. We stick to our view that the first hike will not come until late Sweden: Riksbanken's APP SEK bn Feb Mar Apr Jul Oct Apr Dec Apr Source: Riksbanken//DNB Markets Sweden: Repo-rate path Percent -.6 Q1 217 Q1 218 Q1 219 Q1 22 Feb-17 Apr-17 DNB Markets Source: Riksbanken/Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 15

16 China: Caixin PMI rebounded in June After dipping below 5 (signalling contraction) in May, Caixin s manufacturing PMI rebounded by.8p to 5.4 in June, vs expected Indices for new orders, output and employment all rebounded. The latter is still below 5. Assessment: Stronger than expected. However, going forward we expect tighter monetary policy, slower housing starts and weaker PPI inflation to weigh on industrial activity growth China: PMI Manufacturing Caixin/Markit NBS China: GDP and Caixin PMI Composite GDP, q/q in % Composite PMI, calibrated for GDP Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 16

17 China: Manufacturing PMI China: Markit Manufacturing PMI Jun-11 Jun-13 Jun-15 Jun-17 Empl. Output New orders China: NBS Manufacturing PMI Jun-11 Jun-13 Jun-15 Jun-17 Empl. Output New orders China: Employment PMI Average of NBS PMI, and Caixin manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI 44 Jun-7 Jun-9 Jun-11 Jun-13 Jun-15 Jun China: Caixin Manufacturing PMI 1 Jun-9 Jun-11 Jun-13 Jun-15 Jun-17 Input prices Prices charged Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 17

18 China: Manufacturing PMI PMI - Manufacturing (Markit) Signal Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Main New orders (3%) Output (25%) Employment (2%) Delivery time (15%) Stocks of purchases (1%) New export orders Backlog of w ork Finished goods Quantity of purchases Input prices Output prices = Improvement + = Expansion = Deterioration - = Contraction PMI - Manufacturing (NBS) Signal Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Main New orders (3%) Output (25%) Employment (2%) Delivery time (15%) Stocks of purchases (1%) New export orders Backlog of w ork Finished goods Import index Input prices = Improvement + = Expansion = Deterioration - = Contraction Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 18

19 Japan: Business conditions improve further Bank of Japan s quarterly Tankan survey (based on 11k respondents) showed that business confidence for large manufacturing companies rose 5p to 17 in. Consensus was 15. Confidence for large non-manufacturing firms up 3p to 23. Capacity utilisation remains high: Diffusion index (excessive capacity minus insufficient capacity, % points) unchanged at its lowest level since Tight labor market: Employment conditions index (excessive employment minus insufficient employment, % points) unchanged at -25, also the lowest since Japan: Tankan - Business conditions All enterprises All Manufacturing Non-manuf. Japan: Tankan and GDP Tankan, large manuf., q/q GDP, q/q in % (rha) Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 19

20 Japan: Tankan details (I) Japan: Tankan - Employment conditions and unemployment rate Empl. conditions, non-manuf. Unemp. rate, % (rha) Japan: Tankan - capacity utilization and private GFCF Tankan - capac. util. (inverted) Priv. GFCF, y/y in % (rha) Japan: Tankan - Output prices and CPI inflation Output prices, non-manuf CPI, y/y in % (rha) Japan: Tankan - Large enterprises Supply and demand conditions Total Overseas Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 2

21 Japan: Tankan details (II) Tankan: Business Actual F'cast σ from hist. avg. conditions Q4 216 Q Q3 217 Last F'cast Manufacturing Large Medium Sm all Source: Thom son Datastream/DNB Markets Tankan: Business Actual F'cast σ from hist. avg. conditions Q4 216 Q Q3 217 Last F'cast Non-m anufacturing Large Medium Sm all Source: Thom son Datastream/DNB Markets Tankan: Business Actual F'cast σ from hist. avg. conditions Q4 216 Q Last F'cast All enterprises Large Medium Sm all Source: Thom son Datastream/DNB Markets Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 21

22 OSEBX OMX DAX Stoxx 6 FTSE 25 Dow Jones NASDAQ S&P 5 Nikkei 225 Hang Seng Shanghai USA Germany EURUSD EURGBP France Japan Norway Sweden EURCHF EURSEK USDGBP USDJPY USDSEK USDCNY EURNOK USDNOK SEKNOK CHFNOK JPYNOK Italy Spain Markets: Overview A stronger NOK NOK appreciated as the oil price rose in the wake of a lower-than-expected rig count. EUR slightly down while the USD is strengthened against the JPY. Stock markets have been mixed since Friday with only modest changes. Long bond yields are up approximately.3bps, with USA as the most notable. Investors seem to believe that extensive stimulus measures may be reduced FX, change in percent since 3 June 7:4* Equity indices year sov. bond yield, change in bp since 3 June 7:4* EUR USD NOK** *GMT +2 **Note that higher bars indicate weaker NOK % from previous to last close % since last close *GMT +2 **Norway, Sweden, Italy, Spain: Change in bp from previous to last close Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 22

23 Markets Equities Jun-26 17:55 Jun-27 13:2 Jun-27 17:55 Jun-28 13:2 Europe Jun-28 17:55 Jun-29 13:2 Jun-29 17:55 Jun-3 13: Jun-3 17: Jun-28 14:15 Jun-28 21:15 Jun-29 14:5 USA Jun-29 21:5 Jun-3 15: Jun-3 22:25 Oslo Stock Exchange *GMT +2 EURO STOXX 5 (rha) S&P 5 *GMT +2 Dow Jones (rha) Jun-27 7:45 Jun-28 3:35 Jun-28 7:35 Hang Seng *GMT +2 Jun-29 3:25 Asia Jun-29 7:25 Jun-3 3:15 Jun-3 7:15 Nikkei 225 (rha) Jul-3 3: Jul-3 7: Jun-28 14:15 Jun-28 21:15 *GMT +2 Jun-29 14:5 VIX Jun-29 21:5 Jun-3 15:4 Jun-3 22:25 Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 23

24 Markets FX Jun-27 9:1 EURUSD and USDJPY Jun-28 9:1 Jun-29 9:1 Jun-3 9: Jul-3 7: Jun-27 9:1 Jun-28 9:1 EURCHF and EURGBP Jun-29 9:1 Jun-3 9: Jul-3 7:1 *GMT +2 EURUSD USDJPY (inv,rha) *GMT +2 EURCHF EURGBP (rha) EURNOK and USDNOK EURSEK and SEKNOK Jun-27 9:1 Jun-28 9:1 Jun-29 9:1 Jun-3 9: Jul-3 7: Jun-27 9:1 Jun-28 9:1 Jun-29 9:1 Jun-3 9: Jul-3 7:1 *GMT +2 EURNOK USDNOK (rha) *GMT +2 EURSEK SEKNOK (inv,rha) Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 24

25 Change in bp since 3 June Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Markets Fixed income Jun-3 5:15 Jun-3 9: *GMT +2 1 sovereign bond yields USA Jun-3 12:3 Jun-3 16: Germany (rha) Jun-3 19: Jul-1 : Jun-3 5:15 Jun-3 9: *GMT +2 1 sovereign bond yields Italy Jun-3 12:3 Jun-3 16: Spain (rha) Jun-3 19: Jul-1 : FRA: NOK and EUR Change in bp left axis % m Nibor NOK, change in bp NOK 3-Jul EUR, change in bp EUR 3-Jul. 31-Mar 3-Apr 31-May 3-Jun Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 25

26 Markets Miscellaneous Japan: 1 year sovereign bond yield Mar 3-Apr 31-May 3-Jun EURUSD 3m basis swap Mar 3-Apr 31-May 3-Jun Spread over Bunds 1y, basis points 3-Aug 3-Nov 3-Feb 3-May 3-Aug 3-Nov 3-Feb 3-May France Italy Spain Jun-27 6:15 *GMT +2 Jun-28 6:25 Crude oil and gold Crude, $/barrel Jun-29 6:35 Jun-3 6:45 Gold, $/ounce (rha) Jul-3 6:55 Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 26

27 Markets Spot rates and forecasts Spot rates and forecasts FX 7 Last Today % In 1m Sep-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 FX 7 USD NOK USD/JPY AUD EUR/USD CAD EUR/GBP CHF EUR/DKK CNY EUR/SEK CZK EUR/CHF GBP EUR/NOK HKD USD/NOK KRW JPY/NOK BRL SEK/NOK NZD DKK/NOK RUB GBP/NOK SEK CHF/NOK SGD Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 27

28 Markets Interest rates Interest rates NOK Prior Last SEK Prior Last USD Prior Last EUR Prior Last 1m m m m m m m m m m m m y m m y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y.86.9 Governm ent bonds Norw ay Prior Last SEK Prior Last US Prior Last Germany Prior Last NST y y y y yld y yld y yld y yld US sprea US sprea y yld US spread Norw ay 3m nibor Interest rate forecasts 1y sw ap Sw eden 3m libor 1y USA 3m libor sw ap 1y sw ap Germany 3m euribor 1y sw ap Sep Sep Sep Sep Dec Dec Dec Dec Jun Jun Jun Jun Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 28

29 Markets Miscellaneous Miscellaneous NOK sov. Prior Last Change Maturity year rem. NOK-index TWI Prior NST Last NST Oil price: (Ldn,cl) 1m NST SPOT NST Gold price PM NST AM: NST Equities Today 7 % last NST S&P % NST Dow Jones % NOK FRA 3 mnd 6 mnd NOK NIBOR FTSE % Sep m.72 Stoxx % Dec m.83 DAX % Mar m.96 Nikkei % Jun OSEBX % Sources to all tables and graphics: Thomson Reuters, Thomson Datastream and DNB Markets Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 29

30 Calendar Friday Importance GMT+2 Country Event Period Unit Last Cons. DNB Actual Friday 3 June 1:1 UK GfK Consumer Confidence Jun Index :3 Japan CPI, Core Nationwide May % y/y :3 Japan Unemployment Rate May % :5 Japan Industrial Output Preliminary May % m/m : China NBS PMI non-manufacturing Jun Index : China NBS PMI manufacturing Jun Index : Norway Credit Indicator May % y/y : Norway Retail Sales Ex. Auto May % m/m :45 France CPI (EU Norm) Preliminary Jun % y/y : Norway Norges Bank NOK Purchase Jul m : Norway Registered Unemployment Jun % : Norway Registered Unemployment, gross Jun : Norway Consumer Confidence Index Jun Index :3 UK GDP Q1 % q/q : EMU Core inflation Flash Jun % y/y :3 USA Core PCE Prices May % m/m :3 USA Core PCE Prices May % y/y :3 USA PCE Prices May % m/m :3 USA PCE Prices May % y/y :45 USA Chicago PMI Jun Index :3 USA Consumption, Adjusted May % m/m : USA Michigan sentiment index, final June Index Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 3

31 Calendar Monday Importance GMT+2 Country Event Period Unit Last Cons. DNB Actual Monday 3 July 1:5 Japan Tankan Big Manufacturing Index :5 Japan Tankan Big Non-Mmanufacturing Index :3 Japan Nikkei PMI, Manufacturing Jun Index 52. 3:45 China Caixin PMI Final, Manufacturing Jun Index :3 Sweden PMI, Manufacturing Jun Index : Norway PMI, Manufacturing Jun Index : EMU Markit Final PMI, Manufacturing Jun Index :3 UK Markit/CIPS PMI, Manufacturing Jun Index :3 USA Fed's Bullard speaks at BoE Conference in London 11: EMU Unemployment Rate May % :45 USA Markit Final PMI, Manufacturing Jun Index : USA Construction Spending May %, m/m : USA ISM Manufacturing PMI Jun Index Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 31

32 Calendar Tuesday - Wednesday Importance GMT+2 Country Event Period Unit Last Cons. DNB Actual Tuesday 4 July 9:3 Sweden Riksbank Policy Rate % :3 UK Markit/CIPS Construction PMI Jun Index : EMU Producer Prices May %, m/m. US markets closed (Independence Day) Wednesday 5 July 3:45 China Caixin Services PMI Jun Index :3 Sweden PMI Services Jun Index :3 Sweden Industrial Production May %, m/m :3 Sweden New Orders Manufacturing May %, y/y 4.4 1: EMU Markit Final PMI Services Jun Index : EMU Markit Final PMI Composite Jun Index :3 UK Markit/CIPS PMI Services Jun Index : EMU Retail Sales May %, m/m : EMU Retail Sales May %, y/y : Norway Housing Prices Jun %, y/y :45 USA ISM-New York Index Jun Index : USA Durable Goods, Revised May %, m/m : USA Factory Orders May %, m/m : USA FOMC Meeting Minutes Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 32

33 Calendar Thursday - Friday Importance GMT+2 Country Event Period Unit Last Cons. DNB Actual Thursday 6 July 8: Germany Industrial Orders May %, m/m :15 Switzerland CPI Jun %, m/m.2 13: USA Mortgage Market Index w/e Index :3 EMU ECB account of monetary policy meeting 14:15 USA ADP National Employment Jun :3 USA Initial Jobless Claims w/e :3 USA International Trade May USD, bn :45 USA Markit Final PMI Services Jun Index : USA ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Jun Index Friday 7 July 7: Japan Leading Indicator May Index : Germany Industrial Output May %, m/m.8.4 8: Norway Manufacturing Output May %, m/m :45 France Industrial Output May %, m/m -.5 9:3 UK Halifax House Prices Jun %, m/m.4 1:3 UK Industrial Output May %, m/m.2 14:3 USA Average Earnings Jun %, m/m :3 USA Non-Farm Payrolls Jun :3 USA Unemployment Rate Jun % Jul Germany G-2 Leaders Summit Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 33

34 DNB Markets Macro Research Contact details Kjersti Haugland Chief Economist, Euro area / kjersti.haugland@dnb.no Jeanette Strøm Fjære Economist, Norway and Sweden / jeanette.strom.fjare@dnb.no Ole A. Kjennerud Economist, China and Japan / ole.kjennerud@dnb.no Knut A. Magnussen Senior Economist, USA, UK and Brazil / knut.magnussen@dnb.no Magne Østnor FX Strategist / magne.ostnor@dnb.no Marit Øwre-Johnsen FX Analyst / marit.owre-johnsen@dnb.no Kyrre Aamdal Senior Economist, Norway, Sweden, interest rates / kyrre.aamdal@dnb.no Back to index Daily Macro Brief page 34

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