Situation of labour markets in Europe

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1 Situation of labour markets in Europe Paris, 28th May 13 Jean-François Lebrun European Commission - DG Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion

2 Labour market situation persistently deteriorating Employment in the EU and the euro area, Source: Eurostat, National accounts and LFS. Data seasonally adjusted.

3 Chart 4: Real GDP and employment in EU Member States (y-o-y) Rising unemployment, especially in euro area Unemployment rates in the EU and the US Source: Eurostat, Series on unemployment.

4 Divergence accelerating in the EA Unemployment rates (%) Source: Eurostat, LFS; DG EMPL calculation. Source: Eurostat, Series on unemployment, DG EMPL calculations.

5 Reasons behind the widening gap Difference in employment responsiveness to GDP GDP and employment change Source: Eurostat

6 Situation of youth remains grave Youth unemployment rates and y-o-y changes, Jan' 13 Source: Eurostat, Series on unemployment.

7 Increasing long-term unemployment Evolution of long-term unemployment rates* across the EU between 07 and 12 % Active population 18 07Q Q E U T A E S I F L N K D U L E D K U T M Z C O R E B R F L P Y C I S E U H T L IT G B V L IE T P K S S E L E 0 * People unemployed for more than 12 months as a % of the active population Source: European Commission

8 Employment rates are diverging Changes (year-on-year and four years to 12q3) in employment rate broken down into changes in the unemployment ratio and inactivity rate for the EU by population groups Source: Source: Eurostat, LFS. Note: First bar one-year change 11q3-12q3, second bar four-year change 08q3-12q3.

9 The picture of the EU economy is changing

10 Manufacturing also drives service sector

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12 Demographic trends : The challenge

13 Due to demographic change our workforce is about to shrink Working age population in the EU - projections millions 300 WAP -64 WAP Source: Eurostat, EUROPOP08.

14 The prospect of a reduced workforce

15 Shortage and mismatch

16 More jobs for the better qualified Demand for qualifications 00 - : net change of jobs (EU-27 + NO and CH) 15.6 High qualifications Medium qualifications Low qualifications All qualifications Million jobs Source: Cedefop 10

17 Replacement Demand EU27 0 Armed forces 1 Legislators, senior officials and managers 2 Professionals 3 Technicians and associate professionals 4 Clerks 5 Service workers and shop and market sales workers 6 Skilled agricultural and fishery workers 7 Craft and related trades workers 8 Plant and machine operators and assemblers 9 Elementary occupations Source: Cedefop Expansion Demand 000s Replacement Total Job Demand Openings 000s 000s Expansion Demand 000s Replacement Total Job Demand Openings 000s 000s 7236, , , EU , , , -136,05 139,03 2,97 Low , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,23 743, , ,19-653, , , ,72 74, ,99-2, , , , , ,28 Medium High

18 Contrasts in terms of LM matching Beveridge curve for the EU-27 & selected MS, LSI 10 08q1 LSI 16 EU Poland 08q q1 11q1 4 12q1 11q1 12q4 4 09q1 2 09q1 6 12q4 UR 10q1 2 UR 10q LSI q1 11q q1 12q q1 2 10q q1 0.5 UR q1 09q1 12q Spain LSI 3.0 Germany q UR 10q Source: Eurostat Note: UR = unemployment rate (%); LSI = labour shortage indicator, derived from EU business survey results (% of manufacturing firms pointing to labour shortage as a factor limiting production).

19 The case of "bottlenecks" in IT

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21 Wages and non-wage labour costs

22 Part-time

23 Geographical mobility is low but Analysis of vacancies posted on the EURES jobs portal (and its database) by national public employment services. Specifically targeted at people looking for work outside their home region/country, and at EURES advisers aiming to help them.

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25 MIP: Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure

26 Thank you for your attention! Please consult our website to download the EU Employment and Social Situation Quarterly Review