61/2015 STATISTICAL REFLECTIONS

Transcription

1 Labour market trends, Quarters /25 STATISTICAL REFLECTIONS 18 December 25 Content 1. Employment outlook Employed people Job vacancies Unemployed and inactive people, labour reserve Registered jobseekers Earnings, income from work Gross earnings, income from work Net earnings and family tax benefit Employment outlook 1.1 Employed people In Quarters , the average number of employed people was 4,194.4 thousand, 1 thousand more than in the same period of the previous year, and it increased to 4,264.8 thousand in the 3 rd quarter of the year. The increase in the number of employed was accompanied by a decrease in the number of unemployed. The average number of unemployed people was thousand in Quarters , 34.7 thousand fewer than a year earlier, and, within this, their number fell below 300 thousand (292.7 thousand) in the 3 rd quarter of the year. In addition to the potential labour supply, labour shortage is also more and more present in the labour market. The significant volume of migration for employment purpose in recent years also contributed to the increase in the structural and regional inequalities in labour demand and supply. According to the data of the labour force survey, the number of employed people increased by thousand in the 3 rd quarter of 25 compared to the same period of the last year before the crisis (3 rd quarter of 20). Partly due to seasonal effects, the number of employed people was 83.5 thousand higher in the 2 nd quarter of 25 than in the 1 st quarter, and it increased by another 64.1 thousand in the 3 rd quarter. Figure 1 Change in the number of employed and in employment rate of people aged Thousand Rate, % 4, , , , , , , , , , quarter Number of employed aged Employment rate of year-olds Table 1 Employment rate and unemployment rate* in EU member states, 2 nd quarter 25 Country yearolds yearolds Employment year-old men women together change a) % Unemployment rate % Austria Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Croatia Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden United Kingdom EU *Calculated for the population aged a) Q2 25 / Q2 24. Source: Eurostat. The employment rate calculated for the population aged years was 62.4% in the 1 st quarter, 63.8% in the 2 nd quarter and 64.8% in the 3 rd quarter. The employment rate in the 3 rd quarter of 25 was 9.7

2 2 Labour market trends, Quarters Statistical reflections 61/25 percentage points higher than in the corresponding quarter of 20, i.e. the nadir of the crisis. Nearly one fifth of this improvement can be explained by the decrease in the denominator, i.e. the number of the year-old population. In recent years, the growth rate of employment in Hungary was one of the highest in the EU; therefore, our relative position has been continuously improving in the field of employment. In the 2 nd quarter of 25, for which period most recent data are already available, our lagging behind in the employment rate calculated for the population aged years diminished to 1.7 percentage points, and the rate of the year-olds considered to be in the best working age was 2.6 percentage points higher than the EU average. In the increase of 1 thousand in the number of employed people compared to Quarters 1 3 of the previous year, the share of men and women corresponded roughly to their weight in employment. The number of people who indicated a workplace in Hungary grew by 2.4% and that of those who indicated that they work at local units abroad increased by 14%. 1 Table 2 Number of the employed and its change compared to the corresponding period of earlier years Denomination quarters 1 3 of 20 Number of employed quarters quarters (thousand persons) Change in the number of employed quarters quarters / 25 / quarters quarters Total 3, , , Men 1, , , Women 1, , , Central Hungary 1, , , Central Transdanubia Western Transdanubia Southern Transdanubia Northern Hungary Northern Great Plain Southern Great Plain Employees 3, , , of which: declare to be public worker Members of business partnerships Self-employed Unpaid family workers 3, , , Working in premises in Hungary Working in premises abroad In the 3 rd quarter of 25, Central Transdanubia was the first in the ranking of regions with its employment rate of 69%, which was 4.2 percentage points higher than the national average calculated for the age group of 15 64, while Northern Hungary was in the last place with a rate of 59.9%. In this respect, the difference among counties was even higher: while in Vas county, out of hundred people of corresponding age, 71 worked, this number was only 58 in Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg county. Since in 25 the increase of employment is mostly typical of the primary labour market, the lagging behind of counties, where the employment situation can only be improved with public work, as well as regional differences may increase again. According to the data of institutional labour statistics, including the.8 thousand public workers, 1,914.7 thousand people worked in Quarters at corporations employing at least 5 persons, 2.8% more than in the same period of 24. (Excluding public workers, the increase was 2.9%.) Partly because of the base effect, the headcount increase was the most dynamic in the 1 st quarter. In Quarters , the headcount increase of full-time workers was accompanied by a decrease in the number of part-time workers. The headcount growth in manufacturing, the section of the national economy employing the largest number of people (643.7 thousand) was on the whole similar to the average, but within this, there were significant differences among the various sub-sections. The number of employees increased the most in the manufacture of transport equipment (7.5%) and in the manufacture of rubber and plastics products and other non-metallic mineral products (6.5%), while it decreased in the manufacture of textiles, wearing apparel, leather and related products as well as in the manufacture of wood and paper products and printing. Compared to a year earlier, among sections of the national economy, which are characterized by the dominance of the business sector and have a headcount over hundred thousand, the number of employees increased by 3.1% in wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles, 5.5% in administrative and support service activities and 1.9% in construction. The number of people working in non-public employment in budgetary institutions grew by 0.8% to thousand, and that of those in the observed non-profit organizations increased by 5.6% to 96.1 thousand. Including public workers, the headcount was by 4.3% higher in non-profit organizations and by 1.4% in budgetary institutions than in Quarters According to the data of institutional labour statistics, the average number of public workers was thousand in Quarters According to the statistics of the Ministry of Interior, the average staff number of public workers was 2 thousand in the same period, 18 thousand more than a year earlier. The monthly headcount show a more balanced picture than in the previous year. The fewest people (145 thousand 2 ) worked in this form of employment in March, but since May, the monthly headcount has been constantly more than 200 thousand. Public employment means typically 3 8 months long fulltime work. 80% of people working in this form of employment performed simple work not requiring any qualification. Among public workers, those without professional qualification (including those with general certificate in secondary grammar schools, 60% belonged to this category in Quarters ), people living in regions with worse labour market indicators than the average, unskilled young people as well as people in the older age groups were overrepresented. 1 According to the grossed up data of the labour force survey, 1 thousand people work abroad, but their actual number may be much higher, as data on the place of work are available only for those on whom the households contacted provided data. However, the number of employed not detected by the labour force survey cannot be taken into account as a surplus, since the further calculated population number forming the framework of grossing up does not takes into consideration the labour migration of variable intensity, i.e. the population number used for multiplication includes those who work temporarily abroad. 2 Average headcount data of the Ministry of Interior.

3 Statistical reflections 61/25 Labour market trends, Quarters Monthly change in the number of public workers* Figure 2 Thousand Full-timers in public sector Part-timers in public sector Corporations Non-profit orgnizations * Until 22, only data of the public sector are available. Source: Monthly labour statistics Job vacancies In the observed segment of the national economy, similarly to the previous two quarters, the proportion of job vacancies was 1.5% in the 3 rd quarter of 25. Within this, employers in the business sector wanted to fill 27 thousand jobs in the 1 st quarter, and the number of job vacancies was 29 thousand in the 2 nd quarter and more than 30 thousand in the 3 rd quarter. This latter corresponded to a 31% increase compared to the same period of the previous year. In the 2 nd quarter of 25, the number of job vacancies per hundred jobs was 1.7 in the EU. Hungary belonged to the member states characterized by a high job vacancy rate despite the fact that its rate lagged behind the average by 0.2 percentage point, as the high value of the EU resulted from the indicators of Germany and the United Kingdom higher than 2.5%. Figure 3 Change in the number of job vacancies in the business sector Thousand quarter In the last month of the 3 rd quarter, 18.5 thousand job vacancies intended to be filled in unsupported form were announced at the National Employment Service in addition to the demand for 49.5 thousand supported jobs. So, the National Employment Service offered a total of thousand jobs in September 25, and 58 thousand of them were managed to be filled during the month. Similarly to the previous months, most of the announced job vacancies for unsupported form of employment were registered in Budapest and Pest, Bács-Kiskun and Győr-Moson- Sopron counties in September 25. On the list of the most demanded occupations, simple industry occupations, machinery assemblers, simple service and transport occupations, shop salespersons and freight handlers were the first. (It must be noted that for obtaining more qualified workforce, employers do not really take advantage of the National Employment Service.) 1.3. Unemployed and inactive people, potential labour reserve The number of the ILO unemployed increased to thousand in the 1 st quarter of 25 due to seasonal reasons, and then it diminished to thousand in the 2 nd and to thousand in the 3 rd quarter. This latter corresponded to an unemployment rate of 6.4% which is an improvement of 1.0 percentage point (38.8 thousand people) compared to the same period of the previous year. So, in Quarters , the average number of unemployed people was 317 thousand, roughly as many as in the period immediately preceding the crisis. In the 3 rd quarter, the difference between the unemployment rate of men and women increased, probably due to public work programmes employing a higher proportion of men. The youth unemployment rate continued to decrease, and following a rate of nearly 30% in the crisis period, it seems now to be permanently below 20%. As a result of raising the retirement age and the strong narrowing of opportunities for the early exit from the labour market, the unemployment rate of the oldest age group substantially present in the labour market, i.e. the year-olds gradually approached that of the middle-age groups. Source: Institutional job vacancies statistics.

4 4 Labour market trends, Quarters Statistical reflections 61/25 Major unemployment indicators Period Unemployed (thousand persons) men women together Unemployment rate (%) men women together Table 3 Unemployment rate of people aged (%) 22 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q An important result of the extension of public employment was that it could create opportunities for employment for masses of people who are in the most hopeless labour market situation. Despite this, long-term unemployment is a still existing problem: in the 3 rd quarter of 25, 49.2% of unemployed people declared that they had been searching for a job for at least one year. In the 3 rd quarter of 25, 5.8 thousand people belonged to the category defined as labour reserve; 68.9 thousand of them were underemployed, who worked part time but would have liked to find a fulltime job. In line with this, 430 thousand people regarded themselves as unemployed in the labour force survey, essentially the same as in the 3 rd quarter of 20 preceding the crisis. In the population aged years, 2,060.0 thousand were inactive in Quarters , 5.8% less than in the same period of the previous year, partly because of demographic reasons. While the continuous decrease in the number of the largest group of inactive people, i.e. pensioners and annuity recipients was mainly connected to the rise of retirement age, the change in the number of students was influenced by demographic reasons, the lower age limit for compulsory participation in public education and the slightly lower further education rate in the past 1 or 2 years. The number of cash unemployment benefit recipients who do not seek for a job and that of other inactive people fell drastically because of the change in the regulatory environment and the significant volume of public work. Table 4 Number of inactive people aged years by the reason for absence from labour market Quarters 1 3 of 25 Quarters / Quarters Denomination men women together men women together number, thousands corresponding period of the previous year=100% Pensioners, annuity recipients Child care provision recipients Unemployment provision recipients Students Nursing and orphan s allowance recipients Other inactive Inactive people aged years, total , , Registered jobseekers In Quarters , the monthly average number of jobseekers registered at the National Employment Service was thousand. Their monthly number followed more closely the evolution of public employment than the number of those defined as unemployed in the labour force survey. This is also the reason for the outstanding data in March; however, the trend in the number of unemployed is the same according to both concepts. The monthly average number of people eligible for insurance-based jobseekers allowance was only 56.8 thousand in Quarters , nearly the same as a year earlier thousand people received social benefit and 2.5 thousand did not receive any provision in cash. 2. Earnings, income from work 2.1. Gross earnings, income from work In Quarters , in the field of observation employing 2,887 thousand people (corporations with at least 5 employees, budgetary institutions and designated non-profit organizations), average gross earnings were HUF thousand, 3.9% higher than one year earlier. Excluding public workers, the growth rate of earnings was 4.0%, and average gross earnings amounted to HUF thousand. As of 1 January, the minimum wage rose to HUF 1 thousand and guaranteed minimum wage to HUF 122 thousand, and both corresponded to an increase of 3.4% compared to a year earlier. In the business sector, within average gross earnings of HUF thousand calculated without public workers, the proportion of non-regular earnings components (premiums, bonuses) increased year-on-year, and their average monthly amount of HUF 18.3 thousand accounted for 7% of total earnings. The proportion of non-regular earnings was outstanding in the section of electricity, gas, steam and air-conditioning supply (15.1%), in financial and insurance activities (13.5%) and out of the sub-sections of manufacturing, in the manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products (19.6%). Primarily non-manual workers receive payments

5 Statistical reflections 61/25 Labour market trends, Quarters Total and regular average gross earnings with and without public workers, Quarters Table 5 Staff group National economy, total average gross earnings, total of which: regular Of which: business sector public sector non-profit organizations average gross of which: average gross of which: average gross of which: earnings, total regular earnings, total regular earnings, total regular Total, HUF/capita/month Manual 166, ,2 178, , , , ,6 140,712 Non-manual 327, , , , , , , ,931 Together 242, , , , ,291 2, ,496 2,355 Previous year=100.0% Manual Non-manual Together Of which: without fostered workers, HUF/capita/month Manual 179, , , , , , , ,742 Non-manual 331,717 3, , , ,4 256, ,1 268,335 Together 255, , , , , , , ,3 Previous year=100.0% Manual Non-manual Together Source: Monthly labour statistics. mostly connected to some kind of performance indicators, and most payments are typically made in the first half of the year. In Quarters , among sections of the national economy characterized by the predominance or exclusivity of the business sector, earnings were traditionally the highest in the section of financial and insurance activities with an average of HUF thousand. It was followed by the sections of information and communication (HUF thousand) and electricity, gas, steam and air-conditioning supply (HUF thousand). Within manufacturing regarded as average in terms of earnings, in the manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products having a small headcount, the extremely high payment in May raised average gross earnings to HUF 640 thousand, which was more than four times as high as earnings in the manufacture of textiles, wearing apparel, leather and related products (HUF thousand), the sub-section having the lowest earnings within manufacturing. The growth rate of earnings (and their level) in the public sector was strongly influenced by the change in the number of public workers in addition to the central measures which affected a certain range of employees in the past years. The number of public workers hardly increased in Quarters , but, as nearly one fifth of the 866 thousand employees in the public sector were public workers characterized by low level and dynamics of earnings (earnings of public workers grew only by 2.4% in 25), the 4.6% growth rate of earnings without them was 0.8 percentage point higher than the average typical for the whole public sector. Among central measures in 25, the most significant was the 30% rise of earnings for people working in law enforcement in the second half of the year, which will be followed by further 5% rises every year until 29, as well as the settlement of bonuses in the field of health and social work activities, which raised the average earnings of people working there. Among earlier measures, the introduction of the teacher career model affected substantially the earnings of the sector in 25. In Quarters , gross earnings of employees in budgetary institutions excluding the 167 thousand public workers with average earnings of HUF 80 thousand were HUF thousand, nearly HUF.0 thousand less than earnings in the business sector, but, due to the measures in the 3 rd quarter, the lagging behind in nominal terms diminished. In non-profit organizations, which, due to their weight in employment, have a much smaller effect on the development of gross earnings in the national economy than the two above mentioned sectors, average gross earnings were HUF thousand calculated without public workers and HUF thousand including them. The former amount was associated with a growth rate of 3.3% and the latter with a somewhat higher growth rate of 4.4% as a result of the slight decrease in the number of low-wage public workers. In budgetary institutions and non-profit organizations performing certain tasks, employees whose net earnings decreased due to the rules of personal income tax and contributions in force from 21 received compensation not making part of earnings. As a result of salary adjustments and demographic replacement, the range of employees concerned is continuously shrinking, but even so, in Quarters , the number of people receiving compensation was nearly 190 thousand, and the compensation amounted to an average of HUF 9,700 in budgetary institutions and HUF 9,300 in non-profit organizations, where only a few thousand people are affected. In the observed segment of the national economy, income from work, which, in addition to earnings, includes among others cafeteria or travel costs of commuting to work was HUF thousand, 3.8% higher than in the same period of the previous year. The monthly average amount of

6 6 Labour market trends, Quarters Statistical reflections 61/25 income from work was HUF thousand in the business sector and HUF thousand in budgetary institutions including public workers Net earnings and family tax benefit In 25, similarly to the previous year, neither employees contribution rates nor personal income tax rules changed substantially, thus, the growth rate of net earnings was the same as that of gross earnings. In the first three quarters of the year, on the level of the national economy, average net earnings were HUF thousand calculated without and HUF thousand calculated with public workers. People working in non-public employment received HUF 170 thousand in the business sector, HUF thousand in budgetary institutions and HUF 154 thousand in non-profit organizations. Average net earnings of public workers amounted to HUF 52 thousand. Along with the 0.3% fall in consumer prices, the purchasing power of earnings was by 4.2% (and by 4.3% if the change in net earnings is calculated without public workers) higher than in the previous year. Since 21, the tax allowance has been HUF 62,500/dependant/month in case of one or two dependants and HUF 206,250/dependant/month in case of three or more dependants, and since 24, this can be deducted from employees pension and health contributions as well. In Quarters , according to the results of the micro-simulation model using also the demographic and income data of households, family tax benefit resulted in an extra income of HUF 6.8 thousand per month on average. Calculated this way, average net earnings of employees caring for at least three dependants equalled HUF thousand, more than HUF 51 thousand higher than those of employees who are not eligible for family tax benefit. Table 6 Net and real earnings taking into account family tax benefit, Quarters Number of dependants Calculated net earnings, HUF/capita/ month Net Real earnings earnings a) Change compared to the quarters , % Distribution of number of employees, % 0 155, , , or more 206, National economy, total 165, Source: Monthly labour statistics and a micro-simulation model using data of the household budget and living conditions survey. Further information, data (links): Tables Tables (STADAT) Methodology Contact details: kommunikacio@ksh.hu Information service Telephone: HUNGARIAN CENTRAL STATISTICAL OFFICE, 25 All rights concerning the layout, graphics and design work of this publication are reserved for HCSO. Any kind of reproduction of them has to be approved by HCSO. Any secondary publication is allowed only by the indication of source.