Eurozone Economic dashboard

Transcription

1 Eurozone Economic dashboard Our Economic Dashboard is designed to help investors understand the true state of the eurozone economy. It is not meant to serve as a direct prediction regarding the future performance of any economic or financial market and it is not intended to predict or guarantee future investment performance. Summary of current state as at 31 December 2017 LEGEND Represents the typical range for this indicator. 90% of the historical values for the indicator fall in this range. Shows the most recent value - the closer the marker is to the blue bar, the closer it is to historically typical conditions. Shows the range of more extreme conditions. Shows the most recent three-month trend indicating if it is moving toward or away from the typical range.

2 Interest Rates (German 10-year bond) MARKET INDICATOR MONTHLY VALUES: Jan 90 Jan 18 10% 8% F M A M J J A S O N D J 6% 4% Feb % Mar % Apr % May % Jun % Jul % Aug % Sep % Oct % Nov % Dec % Jan % 2% 0% -2% '90'91'92'93'94'95'96'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09'10'11'12'13'14'15'16'17' % This graph shows the evolution of interest rates on German debt, based on 10-year bonds. The interest rates for Germany s government bonds provide a simple, market-based view of the eurozone s underlying economic health. Also, they provide a useful way to measure investors appetite for risk. Since German bonds are considered the safest assets in the eurozone, they act as a safe haven when investors are concerned about the economic outlook. During these risk-off periods, the yield on German bond decreases; it currently hovers around historical lows. Low and falling rates indicate a weak economic environment; increasing rates a healthier one.

3 Market volatility (Vstoxx Index) MARKET INDICATOR MONTHLY VALUES (index): Jan 99 Jan 18 70% 60% F M A M J J A S O N D J Feb % Mar % Apr % May % Jun % Jul 17 Aug % 15.6% Sep % Oct % Nov % Dec % Jan % 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 ' % The VStoxx Index measures implied volatility in the eurozone equity market, based on the Euro Stoxx 50 index options traded on Eurex, which is composed of the 50 largest companies in the region. The VStoxx measures implied volatility, which is a barometer of investor sentiment and market risk. Since volatility often signifies financial turmoil and the VStoxx is much more sensitive to market falls than rises, it is sometimes referred to as the 'investor fear gauge'. A rise in value indicates a switch from complacency to a state of anxiety among investors, often caused by a stock market decline. When it moves outside of the typical range, the Vstoxx index can be used as a contrarian indicator based on the notion of an overshoot of investor fear or greed. A value above the typical range is a bullish signal; below the typical range it is a bearish signal.

4 Jan 01 Jul 01 Jan 02 Jul 02 Jan 03 Jul 03 Jan 04 Jul 04 Jan 05 Jul 05 Jan 06 Jul 06 Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Jan 17 Jul 17 Jan 18 Corporate debt spread (Bloomberg Barclays Euro Aggregate Corporate Bond Index) MARKET INDICATOR MONTHLY VALUE (index): Jan 01 Jan 18 F M A M J J A S O N D J (In basis points): Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan bps 450bps 400bps 350bps 300bps 250bps 200bps 150bps 100bps 50bps 0bps 90% INDICATOR VALUES FALL WITHIN THIS RANGE 74.0 bps The Bloomberg Barclays Euro Aggregate Corporate Bond Index is a measurement tool for evaluating yield differences between high quality government and corporate bonds of similar maturity. The Bloomberg Barclays Euro Aggregate Corporate Bond Index is used as a gauge for investors confidence in the private sector. A widening spread indicates that investors are lacking confidence in the health of the private sector and in the economic outlook. It becomes then more expensive for companies to access credit and finance their projects.

5 Eurozone GDP Growth ECONOMIC INDICATOR J F M A M J J A S O N D Jan % Feb % Mar % Apr % May % Jun % Jul % Aug % Sep % Oct % Nov % Dec % ANNUAL VALUES: Jan 96 Dec 17 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 2.7% Eurozone GDP (Gross Domestic Product) measures the year-on-year change in the total market value of the region s output of goods and services. Calculating GDP growth allows economists to determine if overall income increased or decreased, regardless of changes in the purchasing power of the currency. This is the most widely-used measure of the overall economic activity and is viewed as a gauge of a region's fundamental economic health. A positive GDP growth number reflects a growing economy while a negative GDP growth number reflects a declining one. Two consecutive quarters of GDP decline is generally associated with recession.

6 Unemployment rate (Eurostat) ECONOMIC INDICATOR MONTHLY CHANGE: Jan 99 Dec 17 13% 12% J F M A M J J A S O N D Jan % Feb % Mar % Apr % May % Jun % Jul % Aug % Sep % Oct % Nov % Dec % 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 8.7% 90% INDICATOR VALUES FALL WITHIN THIS RANGE The unemployment rate represents the number of people out of work as a percentage of the labour force. The labour force is the total number of people employed and unemployed aged 15 to 74. Data is seasonally adjusted. Employment rates help determine the current state of the economy and predict future levels of economic activity. Whilst unemployment rates are rising, consumers feel uncertain about future economic prospects and may be reluctant to spend.

7 Credit growth (ECB Euro-area MFI loans to households and non-financial corporations - YoY%) ECONOMIC INDICATOR MONTHLY VALUES: Jan 99 Dec 17 15% 10% J F M A M J J A S O N D 5% Jan % Feb % Mar % Apr % May % Jun % Jul % Aug % Sep % Oct % Nov % Dec % 0% -5% -10% '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17-0.3% The ECB Euro-area MFI loans to households and non-financial corporations is a composite measure of credit growth calculated on an annual basis. This indicator measures credit activity in the eurozone; specifically changes in households and non-financial companies actual borrowings from banks. This indicator can be used as a gauge of near-term economic activity, in particular household spending and corporate investments which are influential to economic growth and investments. An increase in credit growth shows that individuals and non-financial corporations are taking out more loans from banks, a sign of confidence in the overall economic activity and their financial outlook. This could lead to a pickup in economic growth.

8 Jan 15 Mar 15 May 15 Jul 15 Sep 15 Nov 15 Jan 16 Mar 16 May 16 Jul 16 Sep 16 Nov 16 Jan 17 Mar 17 May 17 Jul 17 Sep 17 Nov 17 Jan 18 Producer confidence (EC Composite PMI output) ECONOMIC INDICATOR MONTHLY VALUES: Jan 15 Jan F M A M J J A S O N D J Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan NEUTRAL LEVEL (50) The EC Composite PMI output indicator measures the confidence of the following sub-segments: industrial sector (40%), services (30%), consumer (20%), the building industry (5%) and retail (5%). The EC Composite PMI output is an indicator for producer sentiment in the eurozone. A reading above 50 shows an expansion in the corporate sector while a reading below the 50 mark is symptomatic of a contraction.

9 Inflation (Eurostat Eurozone MUICP all items Index) ECONOMIC INDICATOR MONTHLY VALUES: Jan 98 Jan 18 5% 4% F M A M J J A S O N D J 3% 2% Feb % Mar % Apr % May % Jun % Jul % Aug % Sep % Oct % Nov % Dec % Jan % 1% 0% -1% '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 1.3% The core Eurostat Eurozone MUICP all items Index measures the average price increase for eurozone consumers on an annualized basis. Inflation indicates how prices have changed from year-to-year. High inflation can have a detrimental impact on investment while deflation (<0%) can cause spending to dry up.

10 Questions and Answers Q. What does the dashboard tell me? A. The dashboard monitors and reports on the movement of a number of key factors that provide an indication of the current state of the eurozone economy. We ve chosen seven key indicators that we think reflect the state of the economy across a number of different areas. The dashboard provides a regular update on the current measurement of these indicators relative to their long-term trends and signals if the trend is towards or away from their typical values. Q. Can I use the dashboard as a forecasting tool? A. No, the dashboard is not intended as a predictive or market timing tool. The dashboard is purely intended as a tool to set context and perspective when evaluating the current state of the economy and to help provide a focus for discussions with your adviser. It is not intended to predict future prospects for the economy or to guarantee future investment performance. Q. What defines the typical range? A. The dashboard definition of typical range is the range in which 90% of historical observations are most tightly clustered. For each indicator, this range is calculated annually at the end of March using the latest data available. Q. How should I interpret the chart? A. In simple terms, the chart shows the movement of a number of different economic and market variables in relation to their long term trends. The entire range of historical values is represented by the blue bar with the lowest recorded value shown on the left side and the highest recorded value on the right. The typical range (representing 90% of historical values) is represented by the blue bar. Readings outside of the typical range are seen as extreme and not representative of normal conditions. The most recent reading for each indicator is shown in the orange lozenge (this is the latest datum available for each source when the report is published). The arrow on the current value shows the direction of the three-month trend (i.e. moving towards or away from the centre of the typical range) and provides a suggestion of whether things are improving or getting worse. Q. Why are these indicators important? A. We chose these particular indicators because they represent a broad picture of the eurozone economy. Q. How often is the dashboard updated? A. The dashboard is updated every quarter with the latest data available from each of the data suppliers. While some of the indicators may be measured daily, we choose to use only the monthly numbers when possible, as they are better indicators of the overall economic trend.

11 IMPORTANT INFORMATION This material does not constitute an offer or invitation to anyone in any jurisdiction to invest in any Russell Investments product or use any Russell Investments services where such offer or invitation is not lawful, or in which the person making such offer or invitation is not qualified to do so. Nor has it been prepared in connection with any such offer or invitation. Unless otherwise specified, Russell Investments is the source of all data. All information contained in this material is current at the time of issue and, to the best of our knowledge, accurate. Any opinion expressed is that of Russell Investments, is not a statement of fact, is subject to change and does not constitute investment advice. Issued by Russell Investments Limited. Company No Registered in England and Wales with registered office at: Rex House, 10 Regent Street, London SW1Y 4PE. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority, 25 The North Colonnade, Canary Wharf, London E14 5HS. MCI