The Exit Lane From the Road to Ruin
|
|
|
- Holly Rich
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 The Exit Lane From the Road to Ruin Avery Shenfeld Managing Director, Strategy and Economics March 29 Economics & Strategy
2 US Economy in Sharp Recession 6 q/q % chg, s.a.a.r. Real GDP Forecast Q2 7.Q4 8.Q2 8.Q4 9.Q2 9.Q4
3 Oil Price Spikes Preceded 4 Out of Last 5 Global Recessions 16 28$/bbl Global Recessions* Real Oil Price
4 US Houses Now Affordable, But Still Falling 7 Index 1975= Household Income House Prices
5 A Penny Saved... is a Penny Not Spent Q Q4-57 Q3-63 Q2-69 Q1-75 Q4-8 Q3-86 Q2-92 Q1-98 Q4-3 forecast Q3-9 US Net Worth/Disp Income (left,inverse scale) -2 Savings Rate (right)
6 Fed Not Repeating Japan s 199s Errors 7 % yrs to get rate to 1% Equity Peak Only 1 yr after equity peak months after equity peak Fed Funds Since Mar-7 BoJ Overnight After Jun-89
7 Fed Has the Printing Press Running Full Speed 5% 3-month annualised chg in M1 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1%
8 Fed Assets See Dramatic Change 21 $ Bn 14 Other Assets Maiden Lane 1-3* C P Facility 7 Term/Other Loans Repos Agencies/MBS Treasuries/Bills Jan 16 8 Jan 14 9 *assets related to Bear Stearns and AIG deals
9 Lower Rates Letting Americans Refinance 7. 7, 6.5 6, 6. 5, YR fixed mortgage rate, % (LHS) Mortgage Refinancings, index (RHS) 4, 3, 4.5 2, 4. 7/3/28 8/28/28 1/23/28 12/18/28 1,
10 Past Monetizations of US Deficits Were Inflationary 25 US CPI, y/y % chg Korea Subprime? -15 WW II Vietnam -2 WW I
11 Fiscal Stimulus is Massive 25 US budget deficit as percentage of GDP 2 Fcst
12 Sweden s Aggressive Action Rescued Stocks Sweden guarantees bank debt, adds capital, eases rates 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Jan-88 Jul-89 Jan-91 Jul-92 Jan-94 Jul-95 Jan-97 Swedish Equity Index (left) Japanese Nikkei 225 (right)
13 Canada: In Deep Recession, Recovery in H %, s.a.a.r. Forecast % 7:1 7:3 8:1 8:3 9:1 9:3 1:1 1: Real GDP Growth (left) Unemployment Rate (right)
14 US Vehicle Sales: A Long Drought Mn units, annual Fcst
15 Recent Oil Sands Production Plan Cuts Total Other Imperial Oil Suncor Syncrude Shell s bl/day Petro-Can
16 Canadian Wealth Loss: Milder Hit, So Far 12 Index, 22 Q1 = Q1-2 Q4-2 Q3-3 Q2-4 Q1-5 Q4-5 Q3-6 Q2-7 Q1-8 Canada US
17 Canadian Mortgage Arrears vs. Outstanding Mortgage Outstanding Mortgage Arrears y/y % chg as a % of total portfolio Canada US
18 US House Prices by Subprime Exposure Jun-6 Sep-6 Index: Jun 6=1 Dec-6 Mar-7 Jun-7 Sep-7 Dec-7 Mar-8 Jun-8 Above Avg Subprime Exposure Below Avg Subprime Exposure Less than 1% 1-19% 2-29% 3% & over % chg in House Prices since Jun 6 subprime exposure
19 Canadian Banks Less Levered Pre-Crisis 7 Asset-to-Capital Multiples European Banks (highest) European Banks (avg) US Investment Banks (Sep-8) Canadian Chartered Banks
20 Non-Financial Debt/Equity Lower in Canada :1 92:1 94:1 96:1 98:1 :1 2:1 4:1 6:1 8:1 US UK Euro Canada
21 Canada Had Room for Fiscal Stimulus 8 general govt net debt/gdp, % Cda US G-7 Ave
22 A Structural Shift in Canadian Trade Other Products Furniture and Rail/Ship Equipm. Autos Energy/ Commodity related Trade bal. C$ bn
23 C$ Now More Responsive to Commodities 1. C orrelation (C ommodity price index and C $).14 C$ standard deviation present present
24 C$ Will Recover in 21 With Commodities 35 Index US cents monthly averages Forecast 5 Nov-98 May-1 Nov-3 May-6 Nov BoC Commodity Index (left) Canadian Dollar (right)
25 Oil Ultimately Covers Marginal Costs But Not Until Global Economy Tightens Slack 16 US$/bbl Cdn Oil 6 Offshore Sands Brazil 4 Deepwater, 2 West Africa USA (Magnolia) Jan-4 Jan-5 Jan-6 Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Actual C rude Oil Price Marginal Cost of New Supply
26 TSX No Longer Hit By Earnings Downgrades % chg Index TSX steady despite earnings downgrades Aug-8 Sep-8 Oct-8 Nov-8 Dec Consensus Earnings Growth (left) TSX Composite Index (right)
27 TSX Earnings Estimates Still Falling, Albeit More Slowly Expected 29 TSX Composite Earnings Growth (% chg) "Bottoms-Up" Consensus by survey month (Thomson Reuters) Latest CIBCWM Forecast -15% % -2 May- 8 Jun- 8 Jul-8 Aug- 8 Sep- 8 Oct- 8 Nov- 8 Dec- 8 Jan- 9 CIBC WM Survey Month
28 TSX Gains Before US Recessions End US recession dates (coinciding with TSX bear markets) TSX return over recession TSX return from its low to end of US recession % 13% % 21% % 5% % 14% % 17% % 34% % 13% 21* -8% -17% Median -22% 14% * Market fell for 1 months after official end of recession
29 Stocks Undervalued Vs. Earnings, Dividends Dividend Discount Model Latest 'Bottoms Up' Consensus (878) CIBC W M Earnings Fcst (796) Extra Hard Profit Landing (65) Actual (Jan 7) - 4, 8, 12, Light Bars: Modified Fed-Type Model, 7% Bond Yield
30 Current Sell-Off vs Prior Bear Market Timing 12 Index (cycle peak = 1) 1 8 avg. recovery period Months
31 A Government Bond Bubble? 5 % 4 1-yr Canada 3 2 overnight rate Forecast 1 Jul-4 Sep-5 Nov-6 Jan-8 Mar-9
32 Canadian Credit Spreads: Room to Narrow (BBB Corp) 5 4 bps 42 bps Source: Bloomberg fair market index Mar-92 Jul-94 Nov-96 Mar-99 Jul-1 Nov-3 Mar-6 Jul-8
Early, But Fundamentally Correct
Early, But Fundamentally Correct Economic Update By Avery Shenfeld, Chief Economist & Managing Director June 11, 29 A Shock Heard Round the World 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 y/y % chg in W orld Real GDP Forecast
Financial Markets Fall 2008 Economic Update
Financial Markets Fall 28 Economic Update October 7, 28 Jeff Rubin Chief Economist, Chief Strategist Avery Shenfeld Managing Director, Senior Economist Crash in Commodity Prices Exaggerates Growth Slowdown
The Oil Shock: How Shocking Is It? By Avery Shenfeld, Chief Economist & Managing Director
The Oil Shock: How Shocking Is It? By Avery Shenfeld, Chief Economist & Managing Director May 211 Global Growth Shy of Pre-Recession Pace 6 Annual Global Real GDP growth 5 5% 4 3 2 4 yrs before recession
Canada In a Messy World By Avery Shenfeld, Chief Economist & Managing Director
Canada In a Messy World By Avery Shenfeld, Chief Economist & Managing Director November 2011 Canadian Growth Resumes After Disruptions in Autos and Energy 108 Monthly GDP Index 107 106 105 104 103 102
Decline in Economic Activity Larger Than Advance GDP Estimate February 27, 2009
Northern Trust Global Economic Research 5 South LaSalle Chicago, Illinois 663 northerntrust.com Asha G. Bangalore agb3@ntrs.com Decline in Economic Activity Larger Than Advance GDP Estimate February 27,
Turning Japanese? May 2016
Turning Japanese? May 216 Avery Shenfeld, Chief Economist & Managing Director, CIBC Turning Japanese? Bond Buyers Really Think So 1 4 Japan 1Y Bond Yield (%) 6 1Y Bond Yield (%) 3 2 5 4 3 1 2-1 Mar-95
APPENDIX ECONOMIC INDICATORS DEVELOPED ECONOMIES
16 QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGY APPENDIX ECONOMIC INDICATORS DEVELOPED ECONOMIES Purchasing Managers Index EMERGING ECONOMIES Purchasing Managers Index US Eurozone Japan Brazil Russia India China Industrial
The World Economic & Financial System: Risks & Prospects
The World Economic & Financial System: Risks & Prospects Dr. Jacob A. Frenkel Chairman & CEO Group of Thirty (G30).Bank Indonesia 7th Annual International Seminar Global Financial Tsunami: What Can We
The Economic & Financial Outlook
The Economic & Financial Outlook James Marple Director & Senior Economist TD Economics May 3, 2018 Global Economies Break Pattern Of Serial Disappointment 4.0 World GDP, Year/Year % Change 3.9 3.8 3.7
Getting Through the To Do List By Avery Shenfeld, Chief Economist & Managing Director
Getting Through the To Do List By Avery Shenfeld, Chief Economist & Managing Director July 212 Global Economy: Seven Lean Years 6 Global GDP % chg Avg = 5.% 5 4 7 Lean Years Avg = 3.2% 3 2 1-1 4 5 6 7
INVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN
INVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN MIKE LESLIE, FACULTY PENSION PLAN NEIL WATSON, LEITH WHEELER FEBRUARY 12, 2014 Presenters Mike Leslie Executive Director, Investments Faculty Pension Plan
THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK RECESSION AND RECOVERY. Paul Darby Executive Director & Deuty Chief Economist Twitter hashtag: #psforum
THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK RECESSION AND RECOVERY Paul Darby Executive Director & Deuty Chief Economist Darby@conferenceboard.ca US OUTLOOK US recession is coming to an end Q3 likely to be positive due to inventory
Economic and Housing Outlook 1. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Economic and Housing Outlook
Economic and Housing Outlook Builder Chicago, IL May, William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor The Great Recession ended in June, but the economy expanded by just.% over the past year Real
Moving On Up Today s Economic Environment
Moving On Up Today s Economic Environment Presented by PFM Asset Management LLC Gray Lepley, Senior Analyst, Portfolio Strategies November 8, 2018 PFM 1 U.S. ECONOMY Today s Agenda MONETARY POLICY GEOPOLITICAL
2008 Economic and Market Outlook
Economic and Market Outlook Presented by: Gareth Watson Warren Jestin Vincent Delisle December 7 Economic Outlook Warren Jestin The Global Economic Landscape is Changing Rapidly Gears Down Emerging Powerhouses
The First Phase of the U.S. Recovery and Beyond
The First Phase of the U.S. Recovery and Beyond James Bullard President and CEO Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Global Interdependence Center Shanghai, China January 11, 2010 Any opinions expressed here
AFTERSHOCKS. Benjamin Tal, Managing Director, Deputy-Chief Economist CIBC World Markets Inc. Will Investment in Renewable Energy Follow Oil Prices?
, Managing Director, Deputy-Chief Economist CIBC World Markets Inc 67 th Annual Tax Conference 67e Conférence fiscale annuelle 2 Will Investment in Renewable Energy Follow Oil Prices? Source: UNEB, CIBC
North American Economic Outlook: Gradual Though Sustained Recovery
ECONOMICS I RESEARCH North American Economic Outlook: Gradual Though Sustained Recovery Presentation to the Canadian Association of Movers Paul Ferley (416) 974-7231 Assistant Chief Economist paul.ferley@rbc.com
How to Fix The Canadian Recession
How to Fix The Canadian Recession CFA Québec January 22, 2009 Glen Hodgson Senior Vice-President and Chief Economist hodgson@conferenceboard.ca Global Economic Highlights The world economy expanded by
Market Update: Broad Market Returns and Indicators
Market Update Eckler Ltd. collects information directly from sources believed to be reliable. Eckler Ltd. does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of the information either
Indonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges
Indonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges Daniel A. Citrin Asia and Pacific Department, IMF April 3, 28 Global Financial Stability Map: risks have risen; conditions have deteriorated October 27
The Great Escape? Douglas Porter, CFA. Deputy Chief Economist & Managing Director, BMO Capital Markets
The Great Escape? Douglas Porter, CFA Deputy Chief Economist & Managing Director, BMO Capital Markets Financial Markets Revive (as of May 3, 21) 16 Stocks 16 15 Canadian Dollar ( ) 15 Commodities 4.5 14
The Stimulus Didn t Work An Overlooked Fact that Needs Mention September 18, 2009
Northern Trust Global Economic Research 0 South LaSalle Chicago, Illinois northerntrust.com Asha G. Bangalore agb@ntrs.com The Stimulus Didn t Work An Overlooked Fact that Needs Mention September 18, 9
INVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN
INVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN MIKE LESLIE, FACULTY PENSION PLAN NEIL WATSON, LEITH WHEELER FEBRUARY 11, 2015 Presenters Mike Leslie Executive Director, Investments Faculty Pension Plan
The External Environment for Developing Countries
d Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized The External Environment for Developing Countries July 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group
The Global Economic Crisis: Asia and the role of China Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University March 31, 2009
The Global Economic Crisis: Asia and the role of China Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University March 31, 29 Anoop Singh Asia and Pacific Department IMF 1 Five key questions
August 8, 2006 Authorized for Public Release 148 of 158. Appendix 1: Materials used by Mr. Kos
August 8, 6 Authorized for Public Release 148 of 158 Appendix 1: Materials used by Mr. Kos Class II -- Restricted FR Page 1 of 4 Realized Volatility of MSCI Equity Indices 35 25 15 5 22 August 8, 6 Authorized
Alternative Facts. Benjamin Tal. February 2017
Alternative Facts Benjamin Tal February 217 US Manufacturing Jobs Were Falling Way Before China Entered WTO 1 25.% Share of Manufacturing Employment in Total Employment 2.% 15.% China entered WTO 1.% 5.%.%
All the BRICs dampening world trade in 2015
Aug Weekly Economic Briefing Emerging Markets All the BRICs dampening world trade in World trade in has been hit by an unexpectedly sharp drag from the very largest emerging economies. The weakness in
CAN EQUITIES RECOVER?
TD Economics Special Report November, 28 www.td.com/economics CAN EQUITIES RECOVER? Global equity markets have suffered a severe correction, with losses over a 2-week period ending on November 2 th of
September 20, 2006 Authorized for Public Release 119 of 132. Appendix 1: Materials used by Mr. Kos
September 2, 26 Authorized for Public Release 119 of 132 Appendix 1: Materials used by Mr. Kos September 2, 26 Authorized for Public Release 12 of 132 Class II Restricted FR 6. 5.75 5.5 5.25 5..75.5.25
Understanding Markets and Long-term Investing. April 2009
Understanding Markets and Long-term Investing April 2009 Disclaimer Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements
2018 MACRO OVERVIEW. More of the Same, Yet Less of the Same. March 9, 2018
2018 MACRO OVERVIEW More of the Same, Yet Less of the Same March 9, 2018 RICHARD FARR MERION CAPITAL GROUP 484-436-4764 rfarr@merioncapitalgroup.com Jan-04 Oct-04 Jul-05 Apr-06 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09
Market Update: Broad Market Returns and Indicators
Market Update Eckler Ltd. collects information directly from sources believed to be reliable. Eckler Ltd. does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of the information either
Russia: Macro Outlook for 2019
October 2018 Russia: Macro Outlook for 2019 Natalia Orlova Head of Alfa Bank Macro Insights +7 495 795 36 77 norlova@alfabank.ru Egypt Saudi Arabia Brazil S. Africa UAE Iraq China Japan US Mexico UK Russia
Evolution of Unconventional Monetary Policy: Japan s Experiences
Evolution of Unconventional Monetary Policy: Japan s Experiences CIGS Conference on Macroeconomic Theory and Policy May 29, 2017 Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies Bank of Japan Shigenori SHIRATSUKA
2011 Ringgit Bond Market Outlook
211 Ringgit Bond Market Outlook Wan Murezani Wan Mohamad Head Fixed Income Research 211 Investor Briefing 22 March 211 MALAYSIAN RATING CORPORATION BERHAD Clarity and Integrity www.marc.com.my Disclaimer
North American Economic Outlook: Climbing Out of Recession
North American Economic Outlook: Climbing Out of Recession Presentation to the Canadian Association of Movers Paul Ferley (1) 97-731 Assistant Chief Economist paul.ferley@rbc.com November 17, 9 U.S. Economic
The R Word. Benjamin Tal Senior Economist. April 2008 Economics & Strategy
The R Word Benjamin Tal Senior Economist April 28 Economics & Strategy An Unprecedented US Housing Downturn Is Unfolding 11 Housing Starts 11 Home Sales 1 9 1 8 9 7 8 6 5 4 7 6 3 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 months
2018 Investment and Economic Outlook
2018 Investment and Economic Outlook Presented 3/19/18 Jeffrey Neer, CFA Client Portfolio Manager 410-237-5592 jeffrey.neer@pnc.com 1 Monetary Policy: Key Factors Inflation U.S. U.S. Labor Market 2.4%
SOM Macro Strategies State of the Markets: Strategies for Trumpanomics
Presentation For Burridge Conference 2017 SOM Macro Strategies Alan Brazil November 2017 My Four Step Process My Four Step Process For Identifying High Sharpe Ratio Strategies 2 Step 1: Macro Theme US
Economic Outlook For Oshawa
Economic Outlook For Oshawa Derek Burleton VP & Deputy Chief Economist TD Economics May 2018 Global Economies Break Pattern Of Serial Disappointment 3.0 2.5 Average Annual Growth %, 16Q4-17Q4 Average growth
APPENDIX ECONOMIC INDICATORS DEVELOPED ECONOMIES
QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGY Third Quarter 15 19 APPENDIX ECONOMIC INDICATORS DEVELOPED ECONOMIES Purchasing Managers EMERGING ECONOMIES Purchasing Managers US Eurozone Japan Brazil Russia India China
Economic Update and Outlook
Economic Update and Outlook NAIOP Vancouver Chapter Breakfast Seminar Thursday, November 18, 2010 Helmut Pastrick Chief Economist Central 1 Credit Union Outline: Global and U.S. economies Canadian economy
Interest Rate Forecast
Interest Rate Forecast Economics January Highlights Global growth firms Waiting for Trumponomics Bank of Canada on hold Recent growth momentum in the global economy continued in December and looks to extend
Wait Until Next Year By Avery Shenfeld, Chief Economist & Managing Director
Wait Until Next Year By Avery Shenfeld, Chief Economist & Managing Director January 213 Tough Times for The Global Economy 2 World GDP Growth: No Pick-up Till 214 12 % chg 1 8 6 4 2-2 21A 211A 212E 213E
> Macro Investment Outlook
> Macro Investment Outlook Dr Shane Oliver Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist October 214 The challenge for investors how to find better yield and returns as bank deposit rates stay low 9
US$m mn
Jamaica and the Global Financial Crisis Outline Pre-Stand By Jamaica Jamaica Debt Exchange pre-condition to the IMF-SBA Post-Stand By Jamaica Key Issues 2 3 PRE-STAND BY JAMAICA Persistent national savings
BOMA National Advisory Council Meeting Seaport Hotel, Boston MA
BOMA National Advisory Council Meeting Seaport Hotel, Boston MA May 5, 2017 Jeff Fuhrer, EVP and Senior Policy Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Boston 1 Raising rates? Raising rates more this year? Next?
Capturing equity gains whilst protecting portfolios
Capturing equity gains whilst protecting portfolios Edward Park Q2 2018 MSCI North America Total Return in USD (2017 Discrete Calendar Months) 4.00% 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0% 0.00% Jan-17
Investing Insights. Managing Downturns
December 31, 2017 Managing Downturns 2 Number of Months 1902 1907 1910 1913 1918 1920 1923 1926 1929 1937 1945 1948 1953 1957 1960 1969 1973 1980 1981 1990 2001 2007 2017 Expansion vs. Recession in the
Economic and Housing Outlook
Economic and Housing Outlook Macdonald Realty Monday, January 23, 212 Helmut Pastrick Chief Economist Central 1 Credit Union Outline: European developments U.S. economy and forecasts Canadian economic
The Economic Context for Budget 2019
The Economic Context for Budget 219 1 October 218 Oliver Mangan Chief Economist AIB Steady global growth forecast but GDP (Vol Change) 217 218(f) 219(f) 22(f) World 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 Advanced Economies 2.3
Three-speed recovery. GDP growth. Percent Emerging and developing economies. World
Three-speed recovery GDP growth Percent 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Source: IMF WEO; Milken Institute. Emerging and developing economies Advanced economies World Output is still below
Zenith Monthly Economic Report December 2011
Zenith Monthly Economic Report December 211 ECONOMIC STATISTICS SUMMARY Cash Rate Inflation Rate (%) Unemployment Rate (%) GDP Annual Growth (%) Country Latest Last Change Latest Change Latest Change Past
U.S. ECONOMIC UPDATE. MACRO February 5, 2014
U.S. ECONOMIC UPDATE MACRO February 5, 2014 LEGAL DISCLAIMER Hedgeye Risk Management is a registered investment advisor, registered with the State of Connecticut. Hedgeye Risk Management is not a broker
The Economic & Financial Outlook
The Economic & Financial Outlook Beata Caranci SVP & Chief Economist TD Economics September 217 Key Themes Synchronized global economic acceleration has put monetary policy normalization in focus Canada
Q QUARTERLY PERSPECTIVES
Q2-219 QUARTERLY PERSPECTIVES Tavistock Wealth - Investment Team Outlook Christopher Peel - John Leiper - Andrew Pottie - Sekar Indran - Alex Livingstone India Turnbull - Jonah Levy - James Peel Welcome
Shanghai Market Turning the Corner
Shanghai Market Turning the Corner C. H. Kwan Senior Fellow, Nomura Institute of Capital Markets Research When the Lehman Shock hit major global stock markets in mid-september 2008, the Shanghai Composite
The U.S. Economic Outlook
The U.S. Economic Outlook Gering/Scottsbluff Economic Forum August 23, 216 George A. Kahn Vice President and Economist The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions
Zenith Monthly Economic Report October 2011
Zenith Monthly Economic Report October 211 ECONOMIC STATISTICS SUMMARY Cash Rate Inflation Rate (%) Unemployment Rate (%) GDP Annual Growth (%) Country Latest Last Change Latest Change Latest Change Past
A Global Economic and Market Outlook
A Global Economic and Market Outlook Presented by Dr Chris Caton December 2008 US Housing starts and Permits 2.3 (Millions) Permits Starts 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
December Employment Report: Further Deterioration of Labor Market Conditions January 9, 2009
Northern Trust Global Economic Research 50 South LaSalle Chicago, Illinois 60603 northerntrust.com Asha G. Bangalore agb3@ntrs.com December Employment Report: Further Deterioration of Labor Market Conditions
The External Environment for Developing Countries
d Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized The External Environment for Developing Countries January 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group
UniCredit Eurozone Economist Toolbox
UniCredit Eurozone Economist Toolbox Aurelio Maccario Chief Eurozone Economist - UniCredit Group UniCredit Group Research aurelio.maccario@unicreditgroup.de Florence, 03 April 2009 GDP Tracker: Sharp GDP
Economic and Residential Outlook 1. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic and Residential Outlook Rockford Area Realtors Rockford, IL July, William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor The Great Recession ended in June, but the economy expanded by.% over the
Monetary Policy in India
Monetary Policy in India Deepak Mohanty Executive Director Reserve Bank of India September 16, 2013 1 I. Objective(s) An Outline II. III. IV. Policy Framework Operating Procedure Outcome V. Conclusion
Economic Outlook May 2017
Economic Outlook May 2017 Derek Burleton VP & Deputy Chief Economist TD Economics Key Questions Global Economy 1. Does the global economic upswing have further room to run? 2. What are the imminent risks
Cosa ci riserva il 2008?
Cosa ci riserva il 28? Scenari e previsioni per l anno in corso Keith Wade Capo Economista The US economy today A re-assessment of risk De-leveraging Financial sector Real economy Historical precedents
It s Complicated Benjamin Tal, Deputy Chief Economist & Managing Director
It s Complicated Benjamin Tal, Deputy Chief Economist & Managing Director September 214 EZ Vulnerability to Russia Limited, Outside Energy 18 16 14 12 1 Russian Federation, % of exports, 213 3.5 3. 2.5
The Asset Allocation Decision
The Asset Allocation Decision Kevin Headland, CIM Senior Investment Strategist Manulife Investments Agenda A Diverse History of Asset Allocation Asset Allocation in Practice How it Fits in Today s Market
Mortgage Trends Update
Mortgage Trends Update UK Finance: Mortgage Trends Update December 218 of first-time reaches 12-year high in 218 Key data highlights: There were 37, new first-time buyer mortgages completed in 218, some
Households: Net Worth Advances, Debt Outstanding Declines. Chart 1
Asha G. Bangalore agb3@ntrs.com Households: Net Worth Advances, Debt Outstanding Declines June 9, 2 Households experienced another quarter of gains in their net worth without improvements in real estate
Commercial Cards & Payments Leo Abruzzese October 2015 New York
US, China and emerging markets: What s next for the global economy? Commercial Cards & Payments Leo Abruzzese October 2015 New York Overview Key points for 2015-16 Global economy struggling to gain traction
Chart 1 Productivity of Major Economies
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 Chart 1 Productivity
North American Steel Industry Recent Market Developments, Future Prospects and Key Challenges
North American Steel Industry Recent Market Developments, Future Prospects and Key Challenges OECD Steel Committee June 8-9, 29 Paris, France * American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) Steel Manufacturers
14:45 16:00 - STREAM 1- Marly. Are Euro Debt Capital Markets a Sustainable Option to Fulfill Funding Requirements in the Current Financial Crisis?
14:45 16:00 - STREAM 1- Marly 1 Are Euro Debt Capital Markets a Sustainable Option to Fulfill Funding Requirements in the Current Financial Crisis? 2 Are Euro Debt Capital Markets a Sustainable Option
Global financial pandemic
Global financial pandemic Dr. Sherry Cooper Global Economic Strategist & Executive Vice President BMO Financial Group 1-8-13- www.bmonesbittburns.com/economics November, 8 BMO Capital Markets Financial
Comparison Of GST Rates And Revenue From GST In Selected Asian Countries. Initial Standard Rate (%)
The Impact Of GST It took 1 years from when the Goods and Services Tax (GST) was first mooted in Malaysia to its implementation on April 1,1. The move was announced at Budget 1 to replace the existing
KEY MARKET TRENDS F O R J A N U A R Y 1 7,
KEY MARKET TRENDS F O R 2 0 1 8 J A N U A R Y 1 7, 2 0 1 8 While economic growth has been anemic in this expansion, momentum is picking up 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960
Navigating the storm Investing in ideas to aid diversification
Navigating the storm Investing in ideas to aid diversification April 2017 Richard Batty Fund Manager, Multi Asset This presentation is for Professional Clients only and is not for consumer use. Please
Liquidity Management: Beyond Quantitative Easing
Liquidity Management: Beyond Quantitative Easing June 2014 Agenda 1. Assessing Risk: Current Market Conditions a. Global Macroeconomics b. Monetary Policy c. Quantitative Easing (QE) d. Asset Bubbles e.
Monetary Policy Report September 2017
Monetary Policy Report September 2017 Chapter 1 Figure 1.1. Repo rate with uncertainty bands Per cent Note. The uncertainty bands for the repo rate are based on the Riksbank s historical forecasting errors
ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS FEDERAL RESERVE BALANCE SHEET Assets and Liabilities 2-3 REAL ESTATE Construction Spending 4 CoreLogic Home Price Index 5 Mortgage Rates and Applications 6-7 CONSUMER
Introduction to the UK Economy
Introduction to the UK Economy What are the key objectives of macroeconomic policy? Price Stability (CPI Inflation of 2%) Growth of Real GDP (National Output) Falling Unemployment / Raising Employment
RESPONSES TO SURVEY OF
RESPONSES TO SURVEY OF PRIMARY DEALERS Markets Group, Federal Reserve Bank of New York RESPONSES TO SURVEY OF a v November 2016 DECEMBER 2017 Distributed: 11/30/2017 Received by: 12/4/2017 The Survey of
Hayman Global Outlook. Texas Investor Summit February 14, 2014
Hayman Global Outlook Texas Investor Summit February 14, 2014 Disclaimer PLEASE READ THE FOLLOWING IN CONJUNCTION WITH YOUR REVIEW OF THIS PRESENTATION Confidential information. The information contained
The U.S. Economic Outlook, Fiscal Issues and European Crisis
The U.S. Economic Outlook, Fiscal Issues and European Crisis October 1 Troy Davig Director of Research Outlook themes The US remains in a moderate growth environment The unemployment rate is 8.1%, close
Personal Finance Society 2017 A year of living dangerously?
\\ Personal Finance Society 2017 A year of living dangerously? \\\\ Neil Dobson Market Insights Team This presentation is for Professional Clients only and is not for consumer use. 2017 A year of living
Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund
Centre for Economic Performance 21st Birthday Lecture Series The State of the World Economy Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund Lord
Executive Board meeting
Executive Board meeting August 7 Growth forecasts Consensus Forecasts GDP. Percentage change on previous year 9 8 7 7 8 9 Forecasts June Forecasts June 8 Forecasts July World North Western Japan America
Fed monetary policy amid a global backdrop of negative interest rates
Fed monetary policy amid a global backdrop of negative interest rates Kathy Bostjancic Head of US Macro Investor Services kathybostjancic@oxfordeconomics.com April 2016 Oxford Economics forecast highlights
Abenomics: From Stimulus to Sustainable Growth. Jerry Schiff Deputy Director Asia and Pacific Department International Monetary Fund
Abenomics: From Stimulus to Sustainable Growth Jerry Schiff Deputy Director Asia and Pacific Department International Monetary Fund Abenomics: from where to where? What is the right benchmark? Recovery,
Outlook for the Norwegian economy
.9.9 Outlook for the Norwegian economy Governor Svein Gjedrem, Norges Bank, September 9 Indicator for world trade -month change. Per cent. January July 9 Manufacturing production Growth in past months.
Europe between Debt Crisis and Liquidity Glut
Europe between Debt Crisis and Liquidity Glut Europa zwischen Schuldenkrise und Liquiditätsschwemme Ben Funnell Man Wien, 8. Mai 2012 Firmenlogo Europe - The Problem A Growth / Competitiveness Imbalance
2012 As the Fundamentals Improve Stateside, They Deteriorate Abroad
N O R T H E R N T R U S T G L O B A L E C O N O M I C R E S E A R C H 212 As the Fundamentals Improve Stateside, They Deteriorate Abroad December 211 Paul L. Kasriel, Chief Economist PH: 312..15 plk1@ntrs.com
Global Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents
Global Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents Andrew Burns World Bank January 18, 2011 http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook Main messages Most developing countries have passed with flying colors
TD Economics. The Weekly Bottom Line 1. October 17,
TD Economics The Weekly Bottom Line HIGHLIGHTS Stock markets continue to slip despite government rescue plans U.S. economic data point to further deterioration in economy Canadian economy showing signs
Economic Outlook 1. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Economic Outlook
Economic Outlook Global Automotive Aftermarket Symposium Rosemont, IL May, William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor The Great Recession ended in June, but the economy expanded by.% over the
> Economic risk and implications for
> Economic risk and implications for financial markets Investment Strategy and Economics Multi Asset Group March 212 Outlook for the year ahead > Budget cutbacks in Europe and US, but global monetary easing,