HOUSING AND LABOR MARKET TRENDS: CALIFORNIA

Transcription

1 HOUSING AND LABOR MARKET TRENDS: CALIFORNIA January 2013 Community Development Research Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

2 National Trends

3 Composition of distressed sales by geography 60% Proportion of Distressed Property Transactions November 2012 Percent of Total Transactions 40% 20% 0% 29% 29% 26% 9% 12% 11% 9% 6% 9% 11% 10% 12% 10% 12% 13% 15% 11% 5% 8% 7% 11% 8% 8% 13% 12% 5% 6% 11% 7% 7% Short Sale Move-In Ready REO Damaged REO Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions November 2012

4 Neighborhood stabilization: concerns over investor purchases of distressed properties Who Is Buying Properties? November % 19% 29% 12% Percent of Property Type 75% 50% 25% 61% 21% 46% 38% 33% 55% Investor First-Time Homebuyer Current Homeowner 35% 32% 18% 0% Damaged REO Move-In Ready REO Short Sale Non-Distressed Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions November 2012

5 Financing for home purchases 100% Financing for Homebuyers November 2012 Percent of Buyer-Side Transactions 75% 50% 25% 22% 30% 6% 5% 15% 22% 18% 48% 17% 7% 2% 74% All Other Financing VA Fannie/Freddie FHA Cash 25% 0% Current Homeowners First-Time Homebuyers Investors 9% Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions November 2012

6 California Trends

7 California s unemployment rate declining but still well above national average California Unemployment Rate (%) United States Recession Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

8 California house prices appear to be stabilizing 250 FHFA (formerly OFHEO) House Price Index (2000=100, quarterly) FHFA House Price Index 2000= California United States Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO)

9 Northern California house prices are stabilizing 250 FHFA House Price Index: Northern California (2000 = 100) FHFA House Price Index 2000= Sacramento Oakland San Francisco Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO)

10 Housing markets in the Central Valley saw greatest drops; Merced, Stockton at 2000 values 270 FHFA (formerly OFHEO) House Price Index: Central California (2000 = 100, quarterly) 240 FHFA House Price Index 2000= Fresno 120 Stockton Merced Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO) Visalia

11 Southern California MSA house prices also stabilizing 290 FHFA House Price Index: Southern California (2000 = 100, quarterly) 250 FHFA House Price Index 2000= Los Angeles Ventura San Diego 130 Inland Empire Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO)

12 Number of delinquencies and properties in foreclosure remain steady 800, ,000 Number of Mortgages 400, , Loans in Foreclosure All Mortgages Past Due Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey

13 California s consumer debt delinquency rate trending down along with U.S. 12% Consumer Debt Delinquency Rate 10% California 8% U.S. 6% 4% 2% 0% Note: Delinquency status of 90+ days past due or worse. Excludes first mortgage. Source: FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel

14 Rents up as vacancy rate falls in LA $1,500 Asking Rent and Vacancy Rate in Los Angeles Quarterly Asking Rent Vacancy Rate 6% $1,440 Asking Rent $1,380 3% Vacancy Rate $1,320 0% Source: Reis, Inc. Asking rent is calculated by first determining the average rent for each unit size, and then calculating a weighted

15 Rents up, vacancies down in Inland Empire $1,080 Asking Rent and Vacancy Rate in San Bernardino/Riverside Quarterly Asking Rent Vacancy Rate 9% 6% Asking Rent $1,040 3% Vacancy Rate $1, Source: Reis, Inc. Asking rent is calculated by first determining the average rent for each unit size, and then calculating a weighted average based on the number of units in each size category. 0%

16 Steep rise in rents in San Francisco $2,200 $2,100 Asking Rent and Vacancy Rate in San Francisco Quarterly Asking Rent Vacancy Rate 6% $2,000 Asking Rent $1,900 $1,800 3% Vacancy Rate $1,700 $1, Source: Reis, Inc. Asking rent is calculated by first determining the average rent for each unit size, and then calculating a weighted average based on the number of units in each size category. 0%

17 Fresno rents up, vacancies down $860 Asking Rent and Vacancy Rate in Fresno Quarterly Asking Rent Vacancy Rate 8% $830 Asking Rent $800 4% Vacancy Rate $ % Source: Reis, Inc. Asking rent is calculated by first determining the average rent for each unit size, and then calculating a weighted average based on the number of units in each size category.

18 Sacramento rents up, vacancies down $975 Asking Rent and Vacancy Rate in Sacramento Quarterly Asking Rent Vacancy Rate 9% $950 6% Asking Rent $925 3% Vacancy Rate $900 $ % Source: Reis, Inc. Asking rent is calculated by first determining the average rent for each unit size, and then calculating a weighted average based on the number of units in each size category.

19 State & Local Data Maps

20 California Data Maps Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures November 2012 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

21 California Data Maps Areas at Risk of Additional Foreclosures November 2012 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

22 Northern California Data Maps Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures November 2012 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

23 Northern California Data Maps Areas At Risk of Additional Foreclosures November 2012 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

24 Sacramento Data Maps Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures November 2012 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

25 Sacramento Data Maps Areas At Risk of Additional Foreclosures November 2012 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

26 Central California Data Maps Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures November 2012 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

27 Central California Data Maps Areas At Risk of Additional Foreclosures November 2012 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

28 Southern California Data Maps Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures November 2012 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

29 Southern California Data Maps Areas At Risk of Additional Foreclosures November 2012 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

30 Inland Empire Data Maps Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures November 2012 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

31 Inland Empire Data Maps Areas at Risk of Additional Foreclosures November 2012 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

32 San Diego Data Maps Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures November 2012 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

33 San Diego Data Maps Areas at Risk of Additional Foreclosures November 2012 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

34 Conclusions

35 For More Information: FRBSF Community Development Website Links to other resources and research on foreclosure trends and mitigation strategies All publications, presentations available on our website Conference materials also posted shortly after events