TRENDS IN DELINQUENCIES
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1 TRENDS IN DELINQUENCIES AND FORECLOSURES IN UTAH January 2009 Jan Bontrager, Community Development Department, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
2 Outline of Presentation National Trends Rising foreclosures House price declines Rising unemployment Utah Trends in foreclosure Housing market softening Rising unemployment Scale of loan modifications still falls short of need
3 National Trends
4 National Trends Foreclosures rose steadily in 2008, with wide repercussions for US economy A slight decline in the national foreclosure rate in the 3 rd Quarter of 2008 Factors driving foreclosures nationally House price declines Rising unemployment, coupled with turmoil in financial and credit markets, may further influence foreclosure rate going forward
5 After Steady Rise, National Foreclosure Starts Dipped Slightly in 3 rd Quarter of National Foreclosure Starts (Percent of all loans) Percent of All Loans Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey, 3 rd Q 2008
6 Nationally, House Prices Continue to Decline 200 Case-Shiller National House Price Index (2000 = 100, quarterly) Source: Case - Shiller Home Price Index, 3 rd Q 2008
7 Recession Marks Significant Jump in National Unemployment Insurance Claims National Unemployment Insurance Claims, Percent Change Year-over-Year Source: Haver Analytics and FRBSF Calculations, annual percent change, 2000 Q Q3
8 Utah Trends
9 Foreclosures in Utah Have Risen Significantly, but Still Below US Average Foreclosure Starts (Percent of All Loa ans) Alaska Washington Oregon Hawaii Utah Idaho US California Arizona Nevada 3Q Q Q Q 2008 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey, 3 rd Q 2008
10 Yet Unlike National Trends, Utah Saw a Continued Increase in Foreclosure Starts in 3 rd Quarter Utah: Foreclosure Starts Loans Percent of All Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey, 3 rd Q 2008
11 Housing Boom in Utah Started Later than US, but Now Seeing Softening of Real Estate Market 170 FHFA House Price Index (formerly OFHEO) (2000=100, quarterly) 160 FHFA House Price Index = United States Utah Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO), 3 rd Quarter 2008
12 St. George and Salt Lake City Experiencing Greatest Declines in House Values 200 FHFA House Price Index (formerly OFHEO) (2000=100) 180 St. George FHFA House Price Index = Salt Lake City 140 Logan St. George Salt Lake Logan Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO), 3 rd Quarter 2008
13 Utah s Foreclosures are Concentrated in Subprime ARM Market 5.0 Foreclosure Starts by Loan Type Percent of Forec closure Starts Prime Fixed Prime ARM Subprime Fixed Subprime ARM Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey, 3 rd Q 2008
14 Utah Saw Slightly Higher Rates of High-Cost Lending During Subprime Boom than National Average 35% Percent of All Borrowers with High Interest Conventional Loans, % 25% 22.7% 23.1% 23.6% 24.3% 25.9% 27.3% 28.0% 28.1% 29.2% 20% 20.4% 15% 10% 5% 0% Hawaii Alaska Oregon Washington Idaho California USA Arizona Utah Nevada Source: Home Mortgage Disclosure Act Data, 2005
15 High Cost Lending in Utah More Prevalent Among Minority Borrowers 70% Utah: High Interest Conventional Loans by Race, % 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% All borrowers White borrowers Hispanic/Latino Black borrowers Asian/Pacific Islander Native American borrowers borrowers borrowers Source: Home Mortgage Disclosure Act Data, 2005
16 Unemployment Rate on the Rise, But Still Well Below US Average 8.0 Unemployment Rate United States Perce ent Utah Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, December 2008
17 Employment Trends by Industry in Utah Total Employed (thousands) Percent Change Utah Dec 08 1 mo.* 3 mo.* 12 mo. Total Trade, Transportation & Utilities Government Professional & Business Svcs Educational & Health Svcs Manufacturing Leisure & Hospitality Construction Financial Activities Other Services Information Natural Resources & Mining Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, December 2008; *Annualized.
18 Significant Drop in Construction Employment Industry Employment Growth: Construction (Year-over-year percent change, monthly) Utah r Percent Chang ge, year-over-year United States Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, December 2008
19 Utah Foreclosure Data Maps
20 Utah Data Maps Distribution of Lending Volume September 2007 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations, September 2007
21 Utah Data Maps Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures September 2007 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations, September 2007
22 Utah Data Maps Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures April 2008 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations, April 2008
23 Utah Data Maps Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures November 2008 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations, November 2008
24 Utah Data Maps Concentration of REO Properties November 2008 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations, November 2008
25 Utah Data Maps Areas at Risk for Additional Foreclosures November 2008 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations, November 2008
26 Salt Lake City Data Maps Neighborhoods Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures November 2008 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations, November 2008
27 Salt Lake City Data Maps Concentration of REO Properties November 2008 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations, November 2008
28 Salt Lake City Data Maps Neighborhoods at Risk for Additional Foreclosures November 2008 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations, November 2008
29 Loan Modifications as Share of Loan Workouts Have Increased 2500 Utah Loan Workouts r Hope Now Servic cers) Nu umber (Adjusted fo Q Q Q Q Q Repayment Plans Source: Hope Now Alliance Servicing Data, 3 rd Quarter 2008 Loan Modifications
30 Yet, Workouts Still Fall Short of Need 12,000 Foreclosure & Delinquencies v. Loan Workouts in Utah 3rd Quarter , (Adjusted for Hope Now Servicers) Number ( 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Serious Delinquencies Foreclosure Starts Foreclosure Sales Repayment Plans Loan Modifications Source: Hope Now Alliance Servicing Data, 3 rd Quarter 2008
31 Conclusions
32 Conclusions Multi-pronged strategy is needed to stem foreclosure crisis Continued foreclosure prevention efforts are critical Foreclosure Prevention: Borrower Outreach, Refinance and Loan Modification (including principal reduction) Reaching these borrowers now may help to prevent unnecessary foreclosures Encourage borrowers to contact t the Hope Hotline by calling (888) 995-HOPE or visiting
33 Conclusions Other strategies that can help to mitigate the negative impacts of foreclosure on families and neighborhoods Addressing vacant properties: ensuring that servicers maintain properties REO property disposition: return REO properties into productive use, affordable housing Ensuring continued access to credit and homeownership: credit repair, financial education, responsible lending
34 For More Information: FRBSF Community Development elopment Website Links to other resources and research on foreclosure trends and mitigation strategies All publications, presentations available on our website Conference materials also posted shortly after events
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