NC Mortgage Trends Matthew Martin, Ph.D. Regional Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

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1 NC Mortgage Trends Matthew Martin, Ph.D. Regional Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

2 The National Picture: 2007 Foreclosures Source: Realtytrac Confidential Information 2

3 The National Picture: Delinquencies Percent, NSA 25 National Mortgage Delinquency Rates Seriously Delinquent Mortgages Percent, NSA Subprime Fixed Rate Mortgage Subprime Adjustable Rate Mortgage Prime Fixed Rate Mortgage Prime Adjustable Rate Mortgage :Q1 2000:Q1 2002:Q1 2004:Q1 2006:Q1 2008:Q1 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association/Haver Analytics Note: Serious delinquencies are loans 90+ days past due plus those in the process of foreclosure. Confidential Information 3

4 The National Picture: 2/28 Default Rates Source: Federal Reserve Board calculations using Loan Performance data Confidential Information 4

5 The National Picture: Cumulative Defaults Cumulative Default Rates by Vintage Time in months Source: Federal Reserve Board calculations using Loan Performance data Confidential Information 5

6 Factor #1: Underwriting Percent Full Documentation ABS 2_28 Combined LTV ABS 2_ Note: Fixed rate subprimes had better underwriting. (Not shown.) Important because it means that ARMs not inherently riskier. Source: Federal Reserve Board calculations using Loan Performance data Confidential Information 6

7 Factor #2: House Prices 25 Year-to-year percent change, NSA Year-to-year percent change, NSA OFHEO purchase-only S&P/Case-Shiller National S&P/Case-Shiller 10-city Source: S&P/Case-Shiller, OFHEO, Haver Analytics -15 Confidential Information 7

8 Fifth District Subprime Summary Washington, DC Maryland North Carolina South Carolina Virginia West Virginia National % of Owner Occupied Houses that have Subprime loans % in Foreclosure or REO Confidential Information 8

9 North Carolina Delinquencies Confidential Information 9

10 North Carolina Foreclosures Confidential Information 10

11 North Carolina Foreclosures Confidential Information 11

12 Subprime Mortgages by MSA Confidential Information 12

13 North Carolina: Number of Subprime Mortgages Confidential Information 13

14 North Carolina: Percentage of Owner-Occupied Homes with Subprime Mortgages Confidential Information 14

15 North Carolina: % of Owner-Occupied Homes with Subprime Mortgages 90+ days Delinquent Confidential Information 15

16 North Carolina: % of Owner-Occupied Homes with Subprime Mortgages in Foreclosure or REO Confidential Information 16

17 North Carolina House Price Growth Confidential Information 17

18 North Carolina House Price Growth Confidential Information 18

19 North Carolina: Residential Permits U.S. North Carolina North Carolina YoY % Chg Confidential Information 19

20 Confidential Information 20

21 Confidential Information 21

22 Confidential Information 22

23 Confidential Information 23

24 Charlotte House Price Growth Confidential Information 24

25 Charlotte House Price Growth 20.0 U.S. Charlotte, NC Charlotte, NC YoY % Chg Confidential Information 25

26 Charlotte Residential Permits YoY % Chg U.S. Charlotte, NC Charlotte, NC Confidential Information 26

27 North Carolina Payroll Employment Growth U.S. North Carolina North Carolina YoY % Chg Confidential Information 27

28 North Carolina Unemployment Rate U.S. North Carolina North Carolina Percent Confidential Information 28

29 Addendum: Alt-A Trends

30 Fifth District Alt-A Summary Washington, DC Maryland % of Owner Occupied Houses that have Alt-A loans % in Foreclosure or REO North Carolina South Carolina Virginia West Virginia National Confidential Information 30

31 Alt-A Mortgages by MSA Confidential Information 31

32 North Carolina: Number of Alt-A Mortgages Confidential Information 32

33 North Carolina: % of Alt-A Mortgages That Are Non-Owner Occupied Confidential Information 33

34 North Carolina: Percentage of Owner-Occupied Homes with Alt-A Mortgages Confidential Information 34

35 North Carolina: % of Owner-Occupied Homes with Alt-A Mortgages 90+ days Delinquent Confidential Information 35

36 North Carolina: % of Owner-Occupied Homes with Alt-A Mortgages in Foreclosure or REO Confidential Information 36

37

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