Subprime Lending in Tennessee

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1 Subprime Lending in Tennessee July 19, 2007 Hulya Arik, Ph.D. Research Coordinator Graphic Design by Paul Henkel, A.B.D. Asst. Director for Research, Planning & Technical Services

2 Presentation Overview I. Housing Market Conditions in Tennessee II. III. IV. Subprime Mortgage Lending Some Trends in Subprime Lending Perspectives on Subprime Lending in Tennessee

3 Presentation Overview V. Extent of Subprime Lending in Tennessee VI. VII. Subprime Lending and Economic Fundamentals What Can We Do?

4 I. Housing Market Conditions in Tennessee Housing market in Tennessee is robust as both number of units sold and average price increased between 2005 and HOUSING MARKET CONDITIONS, % $196,596 $181, % 77,299 79,017 Units Avg Price Note: These numbers are average prices annually and represent only the sales by real estate agents.

5 I. Housing Market Conditions in Tennessee However, the change in the number of units sold and the average price from the first quarter of 2006 to the same quarter in 2007 is not as favorable. HOUSING MARKET CONDITIONS, Q1:2006-Q1:2007 $180,888 $186, % +3.1% 18,309 17,320 Units Sold Average Price Note: These numbers are average quarterly price and represent only the sales by real estate agents.

6 I. Housing Market Conditions in Tennessee HOME EQUITY CONCERNS - If the mortgage interest rate adjusts or any unexpected event happens such as job loss, medical bills, death or divorce: Selling the house instead of going through foreclosure might protect the borrower s credit. However, having low equity makes the borrower unable to refinance or sell without a significant loss. * Cagan, C.L. (2006), Mortgage Payment Reset: the Rumor and the Reality, First American Real Estate Solutions

7 I. Housing Market Conditions in Tennessee HOME EQUITY CONCERNS - Nationwide estimate: 1.1 million borrowers, out of 8.4 million with ARMs originated in 2004, 2005 and 2006, will lose their homes in the next six to seven years. - In Tennessee, almost 48 percent of mortgage holders have 15 percent or less equity in their homes.* * Cagan, C.L. (2006), Mortgage Payment Reset: the Rumor and the Reality, First American Real Estate Solutions

8 II. Subprime Mortgage Lending What is subprime mortgage? Mortgages to borrowers with (FICO) credit score below 620

9 II. Subprime Mortgage Lending Some Facts about Subprime Loans Used for refinancing and home purchase* Higher rates Mostly ARM Higher loan-to-value ratios Higher loan-to-income ratios *According to a recent study by Center for Responsible Lending, nationwide 56% of all subprime loans originated in 2006 were for refinancing. In Tennessee, in 2005, approximately 49% of subprime loans were for refinance.

10 II. Subprime Mortgage Lending Why is subprime mortgage important? Creates homeownership opportunities

11 II. Subprime Mortgage Lending Why is subprime mortgage important? Lets people use equity in their home This spending leads to additional rounds of spending, income and jobs in the economy through multiplier effect

12 II. Subprime Mortgage Lending However Leads to higher levels of delinquency and foreclosure Prone to abusive/predatory lending practices

13 II. Subprime Mortgage Lending Adverse effects may increase dramatically when overlapped with -Economic slowdown -Increasing unemployment rates -Decreasing home prices

14 III. Some Trends in Subprime Lending Nationally, subprime loans increased dramatically Up from $35 billion in 1994 to more than $530 billion in 2004*. According to Fed Chairman, based on data from Mortgage Banker Association, about 7.5 million firstlien subprime mortgages are now (2007) outstanding, accounting for about 14% of all first-lien mortgages. *Source: New Information Reported Under HMDA and its Application in Fair Lending Enforcement, Federal Reserve Board Bulletin, 2004

15 IV. Perspectives on Subprime Lending in Tennessee This is particularly important for Tennessee given that: Subprime lending in Tennessee is historically higher than in the U.S. In Q1 of 2007, subprime loans accounted for a larger share of the conventional market. And between Q1 of 2004 and Q1 of 2007, the share of subprime loans in Tennessee grew faster than the share nationwide.

16 Conventional Mortgage Market Share US & Tennessee Q1: Q1:2007 Source: MBA Delinquency Surveys and author s own calculations 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 75% United States Prime FRM Subprime FRM Prime ARM Subprime ARM 80.0% Tennessee 70.0% 77% 60.0% Prime FRM Subprime FRM Prime ARM Subprime ARM 68% 73% 72% 11

17 Foreclosure Rates by Mortgage Type US & Tennessee 3.5% United States Prime FRM 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 3.5% Tennessee Prime FRM Q1: Q1: % 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 1.8% Subprime FRM Prime ARM Subprime ARM Subprime FRM Prime ARM Subprime ARM Source: MBA Delinquency Surveys and author s own calculations %

18 IV. Perspectives on Subprime Lending in Tennessee FORECLOSURES MARKET SHARE, 2007 (Q1) In Tennessee, subprime fixed rate loans represented 9.3 percent of conventional loans but 21.7 percent of all foreclosures More notably, Tennessee s subprime adjustable mortgage loans accounted for 8.5 percent of loans but accounted for 45 percent of foreclosures

19 IV. Perspectives on Subprime Lending in Tennessee Conventional Mortgage Products Share of Market and Foreclosures in Tennessee, 2007 (Q1) Market Share by Type Foreclosure Share by Type 9.5% 9.3% 8.5% 24.1% 72.7% Subprime Subprime Fixed Fixed Subprime Subprime Adjustable Adjustable Prime Prime Fixed Fixed Prime Prime Adjustable Adjustable 45.0% 21.7% 9.2% Source: MBA Delinquency Surveys and author s own calculations

20 IV. Perspectives on Subprime Lending in Tennessee FORECLOSURES MARKET SHARE, 2007 (Q1) Similarly, nationwide, subprime fixed rate loans represented 6.1 percent of conventional loans but 14.2 percent of all foreclosures And, nationwide, subprime adjustable mortgage loans accounted for 8.3 percent of loans but 48.2 percent of foreclosures

21 IV. Perspectives on Subprime Lending in Tennessee Conventional Mortgage Products Share of Market and Foreclosures in the U.S., 2007 (Q1) Market Share by Type Foreclosure Share by Type 68.3% 17.3% 6.1% 8.3% Subprime Fixed Subprime Fixed Subprime Adjustable Subprime Adjustable Prime Fixed Prime Fixed Prime Adjustable Prime Adjustable 48.2% 14.2% 21.0% 16.6% Source: MBA Delinquency Surveys and author s own calculations

22 Percent Seriously Delinquent, Q1:2007 (90 Days or more Delinquent Loans plus Foreclosure Inventory at the End of the Quarter) 1. Ohio 2. Mississippi 3. Indiana 4. Louisiana 5. Michigan 6. Kentucky 7. Georgia 9. Oklahoma 8. Pennsylvania 10. Tennessee 11. Texas 12. Illinois 13. S. Carolina 14. Colorado 15. Alabama 16. Iowa 17. Maine National Avg 20. Missouri 23. N. Carolina 25. Arkansas 26. W. Virginia 31. Florida 43. Virginia 50. Hawaii 0.7% 2.2% 2.7% +0.5% -2.4% 5.1% Source: MBA Delinquency Surveys and author s own calculations

23 IV. Perspectives on Subprime Lending in Tennessee FORECLOSURE FILINGS Number of foreclosure filings were 10,878 in the first quarter of 2007 in Tennessee. The latest monthly data (May 2007) indicates 3,823 foreclosure filings in Tennessee, one foreclosure for every 638 households.

24 IV. Perspectives on Subprime Lending in Tennessee Number of Foreclosures in Tennessee Q1:2005 Q1: ,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, ,718 10,878-36% +45% 7,502 Q1:05 Q2:05 Q3:05 Q4:05 Q1:06 Q2:06 Q3:06 Q4:06 Q1:07 Source: RealtyTrac

25 V. Extent of Subprime Lending in Tennessee FACTS ABOUT TENNESSEE, 2005 Rates -About 75 percent of subprime mortgages are considered higher priced loans* * Higher priced loans are loans with prices above the threshold (rate spread between the interest rate on the loan and the rate on a Treasury security with comparable terms and maturity: 3% or above for first lien loans and 5% and above for junior lien loans)

26 V. Extent of Subprime Lending in Tennessee FACTS ABOUT TENNESSEE, 2005 Purpose -49 percent of subprime loans were for refinancing* *Nationwide, in 2006, 56% of all subprime loans were for home purchase

27 V. Extent of Subprime Lending in Tennessee FACTS ABOUT TENNESSEE, 2005 Geography -Nashville-Murfreesboro accounted for 34% of subprime loans. -Memphis accounted for another 31% of subprime loans.

28 VI. Subprime Lending and Economic Fundamentals Subprime lending is a major problem, but there is hope. - Fewer houses built means fewer houses waiting to be sold, presenting more opportunities for sale rather than foreclosure.* - In Tennessee, building permits declined by 2.4 percent from 2005 to *David Sieders, Chief Economist at National Association of Home Builders

29 VI. Subprime Lending and Economic Fundamentals Subprime lending is a major problem, but there is hope. -Economic conditions are favorable for a recovery in Tennessee. -Unemployment rate declined from 5.3% in May 2006 to 4.7% in May Per capita income, increased from $30,969 in 2005 to $32,304 in 2006 (a 4.3 percent change)

30 VII. What can we do? Keep doing what we do best. Continue helping Tennessee families achieve dream of homeownership.

31 VII. What can we do? Keep doing what we do best. In 2006 Tennessee Housing Development Agency (THDA) helped 3,270 families to become first time homeowners the first time homeowners (30 percent higher than number of loans originated in 2005).

32 VII. What can we do? Keep doing what we do best. With the help of outreach programs and partnership with our originating agents, THDA was able to reach almost all counties in Tennessee, missing10 out of 95 counties.

33 VII. What can we do? Keep doing what we do best. June 2007 set an all-time record, in terms of $ value of loan applications received. Applications for 610 mortgages totaled $68.45 million.

DATA AS OF SEPTEMBER 30, 2010

NATIONAL DELINQUENCY SURVEY Q3 2010 DATA AS OF SEPTEMBER 30, 2010 2010 Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). All rights reserved, except as explicitly granted. Data are from a proprietary paid subscription