Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions

Transcription

1 Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions The Center for Business and Economic Research Las Vegas Housing Market Searching for Bottom Volume 56, 3rd The national housing market was beset with problems in third quarter. Foreclosures were up over second quarter. 1 One in 139 housing units was filed for foreclosure in third quarter. That figure compares with 1 in 144 for second quarter and 1 in 138 for first quarter. Meanwhile, sales of new residential-housing units in third quarter were down 12.5 percent from second quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis. 2 The Las Vegas area housing market continues to search for bottom as the area struggles with historically high unemployment rates. The Las Vegas metropolitan area saw a slight increase in foreclosures during third quarter, to retain a substantial lead in foreclosures over other U.S. metropolitan areas. In the Las Vegas metropolitan area, 1 in 25 residences were posted for foreclosure during third quarter, which was more than five times the national average. Other metropolitan areas in the top ten included Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL; Modesto, CA; Stockton, CA: Merced, CA; Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA; Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL; Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ; Bakersfield, CA; and Vallejo-Fairfield, CA with foreclosure rates that ranged from 1 in 35 to 1 in 44. Reno- Sparks was 12 th with a foreclosure rate of 1 in 50, and nearby Los Angeles was 40 th with a foreclosure rate of 1 in 90. Las Vegas also remained the top metropolitan area in the nation with negative equity mortgages. In the Las Vegas area, 71.1 percent of the area s mortgage properties were underwater in third quarter, down slightly from the second quarter figure of 72.8 percent. 3 Another 3.7 percent are near negative equity. Other statistics also add to the perception that the Las Vegas housing market still had not found bottom in third quarter. The Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the Las Vegas metropolitan area dropped in third quarter after being nearly flat since fourth quarter. CBER estimates an excess housing supply of 12,630 in the Las Vegas metropolitan area for third quarter an increase of 32 percent from the second quarter estimate (Table 1). Apartment vacancies ticked up from 10.4 in second quarter to 10.8 percent in third quarter. Residential-building permits continue to fall. Stephen P. A. Brown, PhD Table 1 Estimated Excess Supply of Housing Units in the Greater Las Vegas Area by Housing Type: Q3 Type of Housing Unit 1 Vacant Units Estimated Units in the Greater Las Vegas Area Single-family detached 12, , ,035 5,245 Condominium 3,499 82, , Townhouse 1,105 38, Apartment 15, , ,242 6,427 Total 32, , ,922 12,630 1 Excludes mobile homes and multiplex units 2 Estimated excess supply = vacant units less estimated normal vacancy inventory Assumed Percent Normal Vacancy Rate Estimated Normal Vacant Inventory Estimated Excess Supply 2 I RealtyTrac ( 2 U.S. Census ( 3 CoreLogic ( Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions, Volume 56, 3rd

2 Housing-Market Overview Permits Issued in Clark County by Type of Unit 1 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, rd Total: 1,754 4th Total: 1,225 1st Total: 1,934 2nd Total: 1,644 3rd Total: 1,090 Commercial Units Multifamily Units Single-Family Units 1, ,557 1,302 1,004 Residential-Building Permits All Types of Unit Permits Issued by Issuing Authority rd Total: 1,687 4th Total: 1,168 1st Total: 1,871 2nd Total: 1,575 3rd Total: 1,032 Uninc. Clark County City of Las Vegas City of North Las Vegas Henderson Boulder City Mesquite Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions, Volume 56, 3rd Page 2

3 Local Growth 70,000 Clark County Redeemed Drivers' Licenses 2 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, rd th st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd Quarterly 17,461 14,715 13,889 13,458 14,654 13,047 11,919 11,842 14,604 Year-to-Date 49,959 64,674 13,889 27,347 42,001 55,048 11,919 23,761 38,365 Unemployment 6 Las Vegas Q3 13.2% Q4 12.9% Q1 13.8% Q2 14.3% Q3 14.8% U.S. Q3 9.6% Q4 10.1% Q1 9.7% Q2 9.7% Q3 9.6% Clark County Redeemed Drivers' Licenses: Major Categories 2 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 3rd th st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd Percent from Outside the 50 States and DC 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Percent from California 31.1% 32.0% 32.8% 31.8% 31.5% 31.2% 31.7% 32.1% 31.6% Percent Senior: Age 60 or Older 11.4% 12.8% 10.9% 11.5% 11.2% 14.5% 13.9% 14.5% 14.4% Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions, Volume 56, 3rd Page 3

4 Substitute Market: Apartments Apartment Rental and Vacancy Rates by Zip Code Area 2 ZIP CODE UNIT RATES Studio 1 Bed 2 Bed/1 Bath 2 Bed/2 Bath Furnished Unfurnished Furnished Unfurnished Furnished Unfurnished Furnished Unfurnished Furnished 3 Bed Unfurnished AVERAGE RATES Rent Vacancy * * * 699 * * * * * * % * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 786 * * * 958 * % * * * 751 * * * 932 * % * * * 662 * 777 * 828 * % * * * 635 * 734 * 754 * % * * * 546 * 527 * 683 * % * * * * * * * 873 * % * * * 695 * * * 817 * % * * * 816 * 997 * 1001 * % * * * 768 * * * 929 * % * * * 692 * * * 756 * % * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 740 * * * 943 * % * 521 * 625 * 676 * % * 523 * 560 * 623 * 719 * % * 570 * 628 * 693 * 778 * % * 418 * 508 * 611 * 662 * % * * * 545 * 595 * 729 * % * 520 * 574 * 656 * 714 * % * 511 * 623 * 684 * 782 * % * 457 * 562 * 608 * 746 * % * * * 556 * 610 * 690 * % * * * 858 * * * 1072 * * % * 513 * 530 * 533 * 657 * % * * * 763 * * * 903 * % * * * 716 * * * 884 * % * 621 * 765 * % * * * 656 * * * 762 * % * 479 * 586 * 625 * 703 * % * * 624 * 785 * 783 * % * * * 803 * * * 995 * % * * * 666 * * * 781 * % * * * 687 * * * 846 * % * * * 657 * * * 794 * % * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 966 * * * 1165 * % * * * 860 * * * 1025 * % * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 585 * * * 688 * % * * * 873 * * * 1031 * % * * * 796 * * * 930 * % * * * 631 * 596 * 785 * % * * * 742 * * * 903 * % * * * 836 * * * 942 * % * * * 788 * * * 1090 * % * * * 611 * * * 683 * % * * * 827 * * * 1122 * % * 610 * 684 * % * * * 769 * * * 929 * % METRO LV * % * Number of observations insufficient for statistical purposes. Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions, Volume 56, 3rd Page 4

5 Substitute Market: Apartments Apartment Rental and Vacancy Rates by Zip Code Area Rent Q3 Rent Q Vacancy Q3 Vacancy Q3 Data suppressed Data suppressed Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions, Volume 56, 3rd Page 5

6 Single-Family Housing-Market Details Distribution of House Size in Square Feet 3 6,000 5,000 4,880 4,923 4,862 4,685 4,890 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 2,408 1,891 1,556 1,050 2,270 2,305 2,297 2,294 1,788 1,787 1,807 1,789 1,470 1,474 1,489 1, rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd Note: The boxplots can be interpreted as Half the houses have a [square footage, price, price per square foot, or mortgage] between [value at bottom of box] and [value at top of box], with the median being [value in middle of box]. The other half of the houses is evenly split between values that are higher and values that are lower. To show this, lines extend out of the box upward and downward, with 98 percent of houses between [value at top of line] and [value at bottom of line]. The extremely high 1 percent and the extremely low 1 percent are not shown in order to avoid the detrimental effects of outliers, data entry errors, or other anomalies of the market. $800,000 $700,000 $750,640 Distribution of Sales Price 3 $710,000 $600,000 $620,700 $635,100 $650,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $0 $220,000 $197,666 $200,000 $203,500 $199,000 $160,000 $141,000 $140,000 $150,000 $140,000 $120,500 $103,000 $102,000 $112,000 $104,800 $55,000 $30,000 $27,000 $27,490 $7,513 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions, Volume 56, 3rd Page 6

7 Single-Family Housing-Market Details $250 Distribution of Price per Square Foot 3 $200 $207 $184 $194 $187 $187 $150 $100 $101 $95 $94 $99 $94 $50 $84 $70 $40 $79 $78 $63 $63 $82 $67 $78 $64 $24 $20 $20 $0 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd $4 Note: The boxplots can be interpreted as Half the houses have a [square footage, price, price per square foot, or mortgage] between [value at bottom of box] and [value at top of box], with the median being [value in middle of box]. The other half of the houses is evenly split between values that are higher and values that are lower. To show this, lines extend out of the box upward and downward, with 98 percent of houses between [value at top of line] and [value at bottom of line]. The extremely high 1 percent and the extremely low 1 percent are not shown in order to avoid the detrimental effects of outliers, data entry errors, or other anomalies of the market. $450,000 Distribution of Total Mortgage Value 3 $400,000 $417,000 $407,000 $416,971 $404,561 $409,846 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $171,853 $152,192 $147,184 $163,750 $150,242 $100,000 $118,750 $97,621 $88,654 $108,538 $93,300 $50,000 $0 $33,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions, Volume 56, 3rd Page 7

8 Housing-Market Comparisons $600,000 Median Home Prices in Selected Western Counties 4 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $0 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd Clark County, NV $143,000 $145,000 $142,900 $148,000 $140,000 Maricopa County, AZ $148,000 $152,443 $147,000 $150,000 $145,960 Salt Lake County, UT $218,175 $215,811 $213,208 $218,112 $220,000 Los Angeles County, CA $330,000 $340,000 $329,000 $345,000 $347,500 Orange County, CA $500,000 $505,000 $505,000 $520,000 $520, % Quarterly Increase in Median Home Price 4 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd Clark County, NV -2.7% 1.4% -1.4% 3.6% -5.4% Maricopa County, AZ 5.7% 3.0% -3.6% 2.0% -2.7% Salt Lake County, UT -3.9% -1.1% -1.2% 2.3% 0.9% Los Angeles County, CA 5.3% 3.0% -3.2% 4.9% 0.7% Orange County, CA 6.4% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions, Volume 56, 3rd Page 8

9 Single-Family Housing-Market Details Number Available and Median List Price of Existing Single-Family Residential Units 5 23,500 $152,000 22,500 $148,000 21,500 20,500 $144,000 19,500 $140,000 18,500 17,500 January February March April May June July August September Available units (left axis) 19,742 20,262 20,548 20,875 21,143 21,361 21,750 22,624 22,719 Median list price (right axis) $149,900 $149,900 $149,900 $149,900 $149,000 $147,000 $145,000 $144,900 $140,000 $136,000 Percent Existing Single-Family Residential Units Sold by Time on Market 5 100% 90% 80% 70% 12.2% 6.7% 10.0% 15.5% 15.5% 15.8% 16.2% 15.8% 14.0% 15.2% 15.2% 6.9% 7.8% 6.5% 6.9% 6.1% 7.2% 6.4% 7.0% 12.3% 9.7% 11.2% 9.7% 10.0% 9.4% 10.3% 11.3% 60% 18.4% 18.7% 16.5% 16.4% 16.2% 15.9% 17.5% 18.4% 19.7% 50% 40% 30% 20% 52.7% 46.6% 49.0% 51.6% 51.0% 52.2% 51.9% 49.7% 46.8% 10% 0% January February March April May June July August September 0-30 days days days days 120+ days Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions, Volume 56, 3rd Page 9

10 Single-Family Housing-Market Details Number of Single-Family Home Sales, 3 rd Number of Sales Q Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions, Volume 56, 3rd Page 10

11 National Housing Market Conditions 7 Latest quarter Previous quarter Same quarter previous year % change from previous quarter % change from last year HOUSING PRODUCTION Permits Starts Under construction Completions Manufactured (mobile) home shipments HOUSING MARKETING New homes sold New homes for sale Month's supply of new homes Existing homes sold Existing homes for sale Month's supply of existing homes Median new home price Average new home price Constant house quality new home price Median existing home price Average existing home price Composite housing affordability index Fixed-rate housing affordability index Apartments completed Percentage of apartments rented in 3 months Median asking rent Manufactured (mobile) home placements Average manufactured (mobile) home sales price (in dollars) Builders housing market index Builders current sales activity Builders future sales expectations Builders prospective buyer traffic HOUSING FINANCE Conventional fixed-rate 30 year Conventional ARMs Conventional fixed-rate 15 year FHA applications received FHA total endorsements FHA purchase endorsements VA certificates PMI certificates HOUSING INVESTMENT GDP (in billions of dollars) Residential Fixed Investment (in billions of dollars) RFI percent of GDP HOUSING INVENTORY All housing units Occupied units Owner occupied Rental vacancy rate Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions, Volume 56, 3rd Page 11

12 Housing-Market Overview Figure 1 Case-Shiller Housing Price Index: January 1987 to September Housing Price Index Las Vegas, NV Base month, January 2000 = Source: S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices < ww.standardandpoors.com U.S. (10-city composite) Sources: 1 Local building permitting agencies. 2 CBER. 3 CBER calculations using CoreLogic Real Estate Solutions RealQuest data based on new and existing recorded home sales. 4 First American CoreLogic Real Estate Solutions data based on recorded home sales. These statistics may differ from CBER calculations based on the same data (reported on page 10) because First American CoreLogic uses raw estimates. 5 Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors data based on MLS records, which do not necessarily account for newly constructed homes sold by local builders. 6 Bureau of Labor Statistics and Nevada Department of Training and Rehabilitation. 7 U.S. Housing Market Conditions 2nd. Note: As of the 1st 2005 report, statistics in the Single-Family Housing-Market Details section have been revised to reflect only single-family housing. Copyright Conditions Las Vegas Metropolitan Housing-Market Conditions is intended for subscribers. Subscribers may reproduce the publication s items if they cite the publication name and date, and note the copyright of the Center for Business and Economic Research. Send address changes to: The Center for Business and Economic Research, UNLV, Box , 4505 S. Maryland Parkway, Las Vegas, NV, Phone: (702) Fax: (702) cber@unlv.nevada.edu. Web page: Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions, Volume 56, 3rd Page 12