Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions

Transcription

1 Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions The Center for Business and Economic Research Grandfather s Depression or Father s Recession? Volume 48, 3rd Quarter, Las Vegas housing conditions, having peaked in 2006, deteriorated throughout 2007, eventually contributing to the local economy s downturn. Las Vegas entered a recession in late 2007, which came at about the same time as the current U.S. recession. Strong commercial-construction activity along the Strip and nonresidential construction, however, softened the effects of the downturn in residential construction in 2006 and This may well have kept the local construction sector afloat and, perhaps, have kept the economy out of a recession, had it not been for the national fallout from subprime mortgages and other financial difficulties. Las Vegas could not avoid the national credit tightening. A number of major construction projects came to an abrupt stop. Job losses sent the local unemployment rate up, rising above the national rate by about 1 percent. Job losses in Clark County s construction industry moved upward to about 9 percent. Less spending as a result of job losses, higher credit standards, and rising energy prices dragged the local economy down. Once Lehman Brothers failed in September and the stock markets went into a sharp fall, consumers stopped spending on big-ticket items, such as cars and trucks and discretionary items, such as travel, including to Las Vegas. People no longer believed that Las Vegas was recession proof; rather its economy is vulnerable to wide swings. People are asking questions. Here is our take on answers to some of these questions. Is the Current Recession Like the Big One in the 1930s? Over the past 25 years, the U.S. economy experienced less volatility, fewer recessions, and less severe downturns than in prior times. A generation has lived during a golden period of prosperity. This prosperity, however, came to an end with the current recession, which has already lasted longer than the and the 2001 recessions. Of the past six recessions, only two experienced a peak-to-trough duration of less than one year (November 1973 to March 1975 and July 1981 to November 1982). The current recession has lasted one year and most are predicting that the economy will reach a trough sometime in the year ahead. Though the press has reported numerous comparisons of the current situation with the Great Depression, it is highly unlikely that the downturn will last 43 months and the unemployment rate will reach 25 percent. Though industrial production has been hard hit in the current downturn, other conditions for such a severe downturn are not in place. Specifically, the Fed contracted the money supply and failed to begin corrective fiscal policies in the 1930s. Already, the Fed has liquefied the financial system and a large fiscal stimulus is coming in the months ahead. In short, the current downturn is more like what we have experienced on average since the 1960s, or the longer recessions of and , and we are following a different response pattern to our problems than what was followed in the 1930s. It will be a stressful recession in 2009, not good at all, but on the other hand, it will not be a deplorable depression. We divide the six recessions since the late 1960s into two groups the short recessions (defined as those less than one year in length) and the long recessions (defined as those more than one year in length). The current recession seems to have tracked more closely with the average of the short recession group in the months prior the business-cycle peak. We show this in the accompanying figure of the unemployment rates for the current, short, and long recessions. In the months after the peak, however, the relationship between the current and the short recessions weakened. We find the

2 Housing-Market Overview Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions Cont d Unemployment Rate Comparison Months Before and After the Official Recession = , 1980, 1990, 2001 Average 1973, 1981 Average 2007 Current 180 Normalized Unemployment Rate Comparison (peak=100) Months Before and After the Official Recession = , 1980, 1990, 2001 Average 1973, 1981 Average 2007 Current Source: BLS Employment Situation, Page 2

3 Housing-Market Overview Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions Cont d unemployment rate for the current recession tracking more like the average for the long recessions. This conclusion appears more easily assessed once you normalize for the difference in the unemployment rates at the cycle s peak. We show these normalized rates for the average of the short recessions and the long recessions in the accompanying figure. Consensus opinion calls for the unemployment rate to continue to rise during 2009, perhaps reaching as high as 10 percent. Even if the U.S. unemployment rate surpasses 10 percent in 2009, there is little expectation that it will rise to the levels of the 1930s when the rate reached 25 percent and stayed well above the 20 percent rate for a couple of years. As a result, the current recession in the months ahead will likely track even more closely to the average of the long recessions. Estimated Excess Supply of Housing Units in the Greater Las Vegas Area by Housing Type: September Assumed Type of Housing Unit 1 Vacant Units Estimated Units in the Greater Las Vegas Area Percent Normal Vacancy Rate (%) Estimated Normal Vacant Inventory Estimated Excess Supply 2 Single-family detached 14, , ,401 7,959 Condominium 2,955 67, , Townhouse 1,141 32, Multifamily 3 12, , ,521 3,252 Total 31, , ,924 12,305 1 Excludes mobile homes 2 Estimated excess supply = estimated units less estimated normal vacancy inventory 3 Includes apartments and multiplex units Will Fewer Jobs in Southern Nevada Mean Fewer Households Searching for a Home in Southern Nevada? The Southern Nevada economic engine has created jobs at a rapid rate, even if not across all occupations and even if many were not high-paying jobs. Still, the general availability of jobs has encouraged people to move to Southern Nevada. More people means increased demand for housing few people live in cars or tents. And over the past 25 years Southern Nevada has frequently lead the nation in population growth. Growth of about 4 percent is substantially above the national level of 1 percent. Strong job and population growth have been the basis for the area s housing boom. More recently, however, the Nevada Department of Employment and Training has reported job losses and rising unemployment. Clark County began with a 5.7 percent unemployment rate and will surely end the year with an 8 percent or more rate. Jobs in construction are down by near 9,000 jobs. Since construction workers often move in response to lost jobs, it is not surprising that Clark County Comprehensive Planning reported a population decline of 10,000 between midyear 2007 and midyear. At 2.5 persons per household this population decline suggests a loss of 4,000 households in the community. In short, without a job you can't get a home and you face the prospect of losing one if you do have one. Last quarter we reported more than 29,000 vacant housing units, a normal inventory of about 19,000 units, and an excess supply of more than 10,000 housing units. With a loss of population and the reduced demand for housing, the excess supply grows, putting further downward pressure on prices. Page 3

4 Housing-Market Overview Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions Cont d Those who might have the ability and want to buy a home will likely be hesitant to do so as they might get a better home for less by waiting. This quarter s results show that the excess supply of vacant housing units increased, as one might expect with a declining population. For the current quarter, we have 31,229 vacant housing units of which 12,305 are the estimated excess supply. A population increase in excess of 30,000 with 2.5 persons per household would be needed to burn off this excess. Will Consumers Put Off Buying a Home if They Do Not Have Confidence? Our survey research points to a pronounced decline in consumer and business confidence. We see the largest drop in confidence among business leaders since we have been taking our survey. As such, the confidence that has described the area over the past 25 years is gone, at least for the near term. No doubt, a return to prosperity would likely change this assessment. Our findings are similar to those generated in the national consumer confidence survey showing the lowest levels in the past 28 years. When consumers worry about the economy and their jobs, they are likely to cut back on big-ticket items and discretionary spending. Housing is the biggest financial investment in most peoples lives one might expect that some prospective buyers will take a wait and see position. Will Falling Home Prices Result in More People Moving Out and Mailing in the Keys? A recent study found more than half of Nevada home owners were upside down in their homes. Seventy-one percent of the state s residents live in Clark County. No doubt, this reflects the large number of homes that were purchased since the housing bubble began or the households that took the opportunity to take cash out of their home equity. Essentially, these people purchased their home in the last five years. Many of these homeowners face a situation where they could choose to simply walk away from their homes rather than continue to pay off a devaluing investment. And with home prices expected to fall further next year, even as we have seen some signs of declines in the rate of decline, the number of "underwater" mortgages will most likely increase. Currently, Nevada leads the nation in the percent of homeowners with mortgage negative equity (see the accompanying figure of the percentage for each state on the following page). Will Banks Become More Lenient in Loan Standards? The bank regulators quickly charged in when it became clear that perhaps they had inadequately supervised bank portfolios. Difficulties showed in higher bank-loan delinquencies. Banks responded to the regulators by increasing lending standards, for even well-qualified borrowers in the early period as banks were scrambling to improve their balance sheet and they wanted to skirt regulatory problems getting liquid as soon as possible. The latest Federal Reserve's Senior Loan Officer Survey found that 70 percent of domestic banks had boosted their lending standards for prime mortgages. As a result, more stringent terms will prevent certain borrowers who might otherwise have gotten financing from getting a mortgage. More stringent standards limit the demand for housing. Page 4

5 Housing-Market Overview Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions Cont d Is the U.S. Housing Sector Similar to Las Vegas? The U.S. housing recession is now into its fourth year. Again, the U.S. housing turned down before the national economy, as did the Las Vegas market. Total housing starts, resembling cliff-diving charts, plunged from the 2.3 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) peak of January 2006 all the way to 879 thousand SAAR in the current quarter and falling. This is approaching the lowest level since the series started in January 1959 and is down more than 30 percent from last year. In the nation we have built more houses than it can absorb. As such, housing starts need to fall substantially below sales. Inventories, however, persist. With record high excess supplies and the gap between housing starts (for sale) and housing sales (-463K annual rate in Q3 ) one cannot foresee a fast burn-off of inventories. The excess supply of housing units should push prices further downward. The Case-Shiller Price Index for Las Vegas has dropped by more than 40 percent from its peak in The price rise and fall for the U.S. has not been as significant as for Las Vegas. Still, the national data clearly show the presence of a bubble. Using an historical trend that ends before the rapid price escalation, however, we see that the average price is quickly approaching the trend line before the bubble. As prices have dropped, some have come back into the market. They are finding that housing is becoming more affordable. Still, the lack of jobs and credit will continue to hamstring housing; further improvements will be needed. Page 5

6 Housing-Market Overview Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions Cont d Housing Price Index: January 1987 through October Las Vegas trendline, Las Vegas U.S. (10 city composite) Base month, January 2000 = Source: S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Apartment Market Rising job losses and economic woes have hit the apartment market also. The vacancy rate for the third quarter is 8.1 percent and the average rental rate is $848, varying little from the experience of the second quarter. As people have left town, Clark County Comprehensive Planning has reported the loss of more than 10,000 people over the period of the midyear 2007 to. This suggests about a loss of about 4,000 households with 2.5 persons per household. The largest job losses occurred in construction. Many of these people were more able and willing to move than other workers and a disproportionate share probably resided in apartments. On the other hand, the continued high rate of foreclosures would likely stimulate some movement out of single-family units and into apartments. Since the housing submarkets are linked, foreclosure difficulties remain a problem that will affect the apartment market. R. Keith Schwer, PhD Director Page 6

7 Housing-Market Overview Permits Issued in Clark County by Type of Unit 1 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, rd Quarter, 2007 Total: 6,493 4th Quarter, 2007 Total: 8,067 1st Quarter, Total: 2,748 2nd Quarter, Total: 4,516 3rd Quarter, Total: 5,796 Commercial Units Multifamily Units 3,964 5,368 1,394 2,124 3,897 Single-Family Units 2,232 2,274 1,177 2,201 1,685 Residential-Building Permits All Types of Unit Permits Issued by Issuing Authority 1 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, rd Quarter, 2007 Total: 6,196 4th Quarter, 2007 Total: 7,642 1st Quarter, Total: 2,571 2nd Quarter, Total: 4,325 3rd Quarter, Total: 5,582 Uninc. Clark County 4,660 5, ,538 4,138 City of Las Vegas , City of North Las Vegas , Henderson Boulder City Mesquite Page 7

8 Local Growth 90,000 Clark County Redeemed Drivers' Licenses 2 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, rd Quarter, th Quarter, st Quarter, nd Quarter, rd Quarter, th Quarter, st Quarter, 2nd Quarter, 3rd Quarter, Quarterly 22,618 18,328 19,906 18,681 19,925 17,114 18,957 16,101 17,461 Year-to-Date 63,046 81,374 19,906 37,638 57,563 74,677 18,957 32,498 49,959 Unemployment 6 Las Vegas Q % Q % Q1 5.6% Q2 5.9% Q3 7.1% U.S. Q % Q % Q1 4.9% Q2 5.3% Q3 6.0% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Clark County Redeemed Drivers' Licenses: Major Categories 2 3rd Quarter, th Quarter, st Quarter, nd Quarter, rd Quarter, th Quarter, st Quarter, 2nd Quarter, Percent from Outside the 50 States and DC 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 3rd Quarter, Percent from California 32.6% 33.6% 35.3% 32.7% 30.7% 31.6% 33.9% 31.4% 31.1% Percent Senior: Age 60 or Older 10.5% 11.3% 10.1% 10.0% 10.6% 12.2% 10.4% 12.6% 11.4% Page 8

9 Substitute Market: Apartments Apartment Rental and Vacancy Rates by Zip Code Area 2 ZIP CODE UNIT RATES Studio 1 Bed 2 Bed/1 Bath 2 Bed/2 Bath 3 Bed AVERAGE RATES Furnished Unfurnished Furnished Unfurnished Furnished Unfurnished Furnished Unfurnished Furnished Unfurnished Rent Vacancy * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 874 * * * 1086 * % * * * 838 * 1047 * 1006 * % * * * 708 * 747 * 847 * % * * * 597 * 629 * 736 * % * * * * * * * 990 * % * * * 816 * * * 983 * * % * * * 900 * * * 1048 * % * * * 887 * * * 1023 * * % * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 700 * 777 * % * 591 * 668 * 697 * 828 * % * 686 * 763 * 838 * 922 * % * 741 * 811 * % * * * 660 * 734 * 796 * % * 646 * 720 * 759 * 855 * * % * 647 * 750 * 775 * 899 * % * 509 * 608 * 691 * 814 * % * * * 627 * 610 * 765 * % * * * 924 * * * 1089 * * % * * * 642 * 677 * 744 * % * * * 875 * * * 1016 * % * * * 827 * 839 * 1020 * % * 791 * 889 * % * * * 768 * 736 * 987 * * % * 653 * 754 * 782 * 883 * % * * 744 * 857 * 895 * % * * * 801 * * * 954 * % * * * 809 * * * 958 * % * * * 780 * * * 968 * % * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 975 * * * 1238 * % * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 716 * * * 869 * % * * * * * * * 1183 * % * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 819 * 731 * 986 * % * * * 878 * * * 1033 * % * * * 1000 * * * 1097 * * % * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 775 * * * 905 * % * * * * * * * * * 0 * * * 768 * 866 * % * * * 846 * * * 965 * % METRO LV * % * Number of observations insufficient for statistical purposes. Page 9

10 Substitute Market: Apartments Apartment Rental and Vacancy Rates by Zip Code Area Rent Q3 Rent Q3 Data Suppressed Vacancy Q3 Vacancy Q3 Data Suppressed Data Suppressed Page 10

11 Single-Family Housing-Market Details 6,000 Distribution of House Size in Square Feet 3 5,000 4,969 4,962 5,079 4,892 4,921 4,000 3,000 2,358 2,405 2,464 2,464 2,443 2,000 1,000 1,817 1,857 1,935 1,924 1,876 1,492 1,520 1,558 1,557 1, ,024 1, rd Quarter, th Quarter, st Quarter, 2nd Quarter, 3rd Quarter, Note: The boxplots can be interpreted as Half the houses have a [square footage, price, price per square foot, or mortgage] between [value at bottom of box] and [value at top of box], with the median being [value in middle of box]. The other half of the houses is evenly split between values that are higher and values that are lower. To show this, lines extend out of the box upward and downward, with 98 percent of houses between [value at top of line] and [value at bottom of line]. The extremely high 1 percent and the extremely low 1 percent are not shown in order to avoid the detrimental effects of outliers, data entry errors, or other anomalies of the market. $1,600,000 Distribution of Sales Price 3 $1,400,000 $1,200,000 $1,400,000 $1,321,800 $1,190,250 $1,000,000 $985,350 $800,000 $825,420 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 $0 $377,429 $350,000 $330,000 $315,000 $296,000 $289,714 $272,750 $255,000 $245,847 $240,695 $224,000 $220,000 $210,000 $195,000 $140,000 $135,000 $172,000 $125,000 $110,000 $89,978 3rd Quarter, th Quarter, st Quarter, 2nd Quarter, 3rd Quarter, Page 11

12 Single-Family Housing-Market Details $400 Distribution of Price per Square Foot 3 $350 $341 $300 $318 $301 $275 $250 $237 $200 $150 $100 $50 $190 $173 $168 $157 $148 $150 $147 $135 $134 $128 $125 $118 $115 $108 $96 $99 $88 $80 $72 $64 3rd Quarter, th Quarter, st Quarter, 2nd Quarter, 3rd Quarter, Note: The boxplots can be interpreted as Half the houses have a [square footage, price, price per square foot, or mortgage] between [value at bottom of box] and [value at top of box], with the median being [value in middle of box]. The other half of the houses is evenly split between values that are higher and values that are lower. To show this, lines extend out of the box upward and downward, with 98 percent of houses between [value at top of line] and [value at bottom of line]. The extremely high 1 percent and the extremely low 1 percent are not shown in order to avoid the detrimental effects of outliers, data entry errors, or other anomalies of the market. $1,200,000 Distribution of Total Mortgage Value 3 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $878,060 $800,000 $742,074 $600,000 $637,657 $502,680 $400,000 $200,000 $317,869 $251,349 $199,488 $295,698 $230,000 $169,150 $270,000 $260,000 $210,000 $197,894 $152,605 $143,010 $240,620 $180,000 $127,578 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 3rd Quarter, th Quarter, st Quarter, 2nd Quarter, 3rd Quarter, Page 12

13 Housing-Market Comparisons $800,000 Median Home Prices in Selected Western Counties 4 $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $0 3rd Quarter, th Quarter, st Quarter, 2nd Quarter, 3rd Quarter, Clark County, NV $296,465 $273,536 $251,295 $239,990 $223,000 Maricopa County, AZ $265,000 $254,900 $235,000 $225,000 $204,900 Salt Lake County, UT $292,467 $280,524 $263,340 $243,000 $233,750 Los Angeles County, CA $575,000 $510,000 $460,000 $435,000 $385,000 Orange County, CA $710,000 $658,000 $578,000 $540,000 $500, % Quarterly Increase in Median Home Price 4 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -12.0% -14.0% 3rd Quarter, th Quarter, st Quarter, 2nd Quarter, 3rd Quarter, Clark County, NV -2.2% -7.7% -8.1% -4.5% -7.1% Maricopa County, AZ -1.7% -3.8% -7.8% -4.3% -8.9% Salt Lake County, UT 0.0% -4.1% -6.1% -7.7% -3.8% Los Angeles County, CA 0.0% -11.3% -9.8% -5.4% -11.5% Orange County, CA -2.1% -7.3% -12.2% -6.6% -7.4% Page 13

14 Single-Family Housing-Market Details Number Available and Median List Price of Existing Single-Family Residential Units $300,000 $290, $280, $270,000 $260, $250,000 $240, $230, $220,000 $210, January February March April May June July August September is) 22,117 22,497 22,763 22,942 23,348 23,388 23,423 22,710 22,784 axis) $293,000 $284,900 $275,000 $265,000 $253,945 $245,000 $234,990 $225,000 $219,000 $200,000 Percent Existing Single-Family Residential Units Sold by Time on Market 5 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 30.6% 11.5% 14.4% 27.1% 26.7% 11.8% 12.0% 16.3% 14.1% 22.5% 20.3% 19.0% 16.9% 15.2% 13.2% 7.7% 7.3% 7.5% 7.7% 8.5% 10.0% 10.9% 11.5% 10.6% 12.3% 12.1% 14.4% 16.4% 19.0% 19.0% 17.3% 19.9% 40% 16.0% 14.2% 16.0% 16.9% 30% 20% 10% 27.5% 30.6% 31.2% 36.2% 39.8% 43.1% 48.6% 47.6% 48.6% 0% January Feb ruary March Ap ril May June July Aug ust 0-30 days days days days 120+ days Sep temb er Page 14

15 Single-Family Housing-Market Details Number of Single-Family Home Sales 3 rd Quarter, Number of Sales Q3 Number 1 - of 10Sales Q Page 15

16 Clark County Foreclosures Page 16

17 National Housing Market Conditions 7 Latest quarter Previous quarter Same quarter previous year % change from previous quarter % change from last year HOUSING PRODUCTION Permits Starts Under construction Completions Manufactured (mobile) home shipments HOUSING MARKETING New homes sold New homes for sale Month's supply of new homes Existing homes sold Existing homes for sale Month's supply of existing homes Median new home price Average new home price Constant house quality new home price Median existing home price Average existing home price Composite housing affordability index Fixed-rate housing affordability index Adjustable-rate housing affordability index Apartments completed Percentage of apartments rented in 3 months Median asking rent Manufactured (mobile) home placements Average manufactured (mobile) home sales price (in dollars) Housing market index Current sales activity Future sales expectations Prospective buyer traffic HOUSING FINANCE Conventional fixed-rate 30 year Conventional ARMs Conventional fixed-rate 15 year FHA applications received FHA total endorsements FHA purchase endorsements VA certificates PMI certificates Total past due, all loans Total past due, conventional subprime loans Total past due, conventional subprime ARMs days past due, all loans days past due, conventional subprime loans days past due, conventional subprime ARMs Foreclosures started, all loans Foreclosures started, conventional subprime loans Foreclosures started, conventional subprime ARMs HOUSING INVESTMENT GDP (in billions of dollars) Residential Fixed Investment (in billions of dollars) RFI percent of GDP HOUSING INVENTORY All housing units Occupied units Owner occupied Rental vacancy rate Page 17

18 Housing-Market Overview Top 10 U.S. Metro Foreclosure Market Data - Rank State Metro Name Total % Housing Units % Change from CA Stockton 21, NV Las Vegas/Paradise 67, CA Riverside/San Bernardino 112, CA Bakersfield 16, AZ Phoenix/Mesa 97, FL Fort Lauderdale 47, FL Orlando 46, FL Miami 49, CA Sacramento 39, MI Detroit/Livonia/Dearborn 38, Source: sw ire.com/real-estate/ /la html Sources: 1 Local building permitting agencies. 2 CBER. 3 CBER calculations using First American Real Estate Solutions RealQuest, data based on new and existing recorded home sales. 4 Metroscan, First American Real Estate Solutions data based on recorded home sales. These statistics may differ from CBER calculations based on the same data (reported on page 7) because Metroscan uses raw estimates. 5 Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors data based on MLS records, which do not necessarily account for newly constructed homes sold by local builders. 6 Bureau of Labor Statistics and Nevada Department of Training and Rehabilitation. 7 U.S. Housing Market Conditions 3rd Quarter, Note: As of the 1st Quarter, 2005 report, statistics in the Single-Family Housing-Market Details section have been revised to reflect only single-family housing. Copyright 2009 Conditions Las Vegas Metropolitan Housing-Market Conditions is intended for subscribers. Subscribers may reproduce the publication s items if they cite the publication name and date, and note the copyright of the Center for Business and Economic Research. Send address changes to: The Center for Business and Economic Research, UNLV, Box , 4505 S. Maryland Parkway, Las Vegas, NV, Phone: (702) Fax: (702) cber@unlv.nevada.edu. Web page: Page 18