2016 CALIFORNIA ECONOMIC & MARKET FORECAST. November 18, 2015 Newport Beach AOR Leslie Appleton-Young, Vice President & Chief Economist

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1 2016 CALIFORNIA ECONOMIC & MARKET FORECAST November 18, 2015 Newport Beach AOR Leslie Appleton-Young, Vice President & Chief Economist

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6 The Future

7 2016 FORECAST

8 2015 FORECAST REPORT CARD 2014 Actual 2015 Forecast 2015 Projected SFH Resales (000s) % Change -7.6% 5.8% 6.3% Median Price ($000s) $447.0 $478.7 $476.3 % Change 9.8% 5.2% 6.5% 30-Yr FRM 4.2% 4.5% 3.9% Housing Affordability Index 30% 27% 31% U.S. Gross Domestic Product 2.4% 3.0% 2.4% Forecast Date: October 2015 vs. October 2014 SERIES: CA Housing Market Outlook SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

9 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

10 LATEST ECONOMIC NEWS U.S. is under-performing -- Q3 GDP 1.5% Job-growth is slowing; full-employment mid-2016 Net worth is up: equities & housing prices Wage grow stagnent Consumers buying autos because Low oil prices help and hurt Strong dollar hurting exports Global economy is struggling: Q3 growth China : 6.9% - slowest since 2009 U.K.: 0.5% Fed meets next December Don t expect hike in rates until March 2016

11 TRENDING BOOMERS VS MILLENIALS Oprah likes Weight Watchers buys 10% Stock soars 141% on news Wrestling with how to remain relevant Soul Cycle IPO Who will win: Leslie or Joel? aspirational lifestyle brand"

12 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 2014: 2.4%; 2015 Q3: 1.5% ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE, CHAIN-TYPE (2005) $ 5% ANNUALLY QUARTERLY 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% 2009 Largest Annual Drop since 1938 (-3.4%) -4% P 2016F Q1-11 Q2-11 Q3-11 Q4-11 Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12 Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4-13 Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 SERIES: GDP SOURCE: US Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis

13 ALL COMPONENTS OF GDP DOWN ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE % 2.0 Q Q Q Q % -0.03% 0.3% Consumption Fixed Nonres. Investment Net Exports Government SERIES: Components of GDP SOURCE: US Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis

2011 2012 2013 2014 SERIES: Personal Consumption SOURCE: US Dept.

14 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION 2014: 3.2%; 2015 Q3: 3.2% ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE 5% 4% ANNUALLY QUARTERLY 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% SERIES: Personal Consumption SOURCE: US Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis 2010 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q2

EMPLOYMENT REBOUND IN OCTOBER:271,000 ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE 6 4 198K/mo 2015 avg

0% 0-2 Change Growth -4 United States 2,752,000 2.0% California 470,000 3.

9% Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10

15 EMPLOYMENT REBOUND IN OCTOBER:271,000 ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE K/mo 2015 avg 260K/mo 2014 avg California US 3.0% 2 2.0% 0-2 Change Growth -4 United States 2,752, % California 470, % -6 New York 130, % -8 Texas 217, % Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 SERIES: Total Nonfarm Employment SOURCE: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, CA Employment Development Division

16 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE HOLDS STEADY October 2015: US 5.0% & August 2015:CA 6.1% 14% US-CA CA US 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 SERIES: Unemployment Rate The U-6 rate covers the unemployed, underemployed and those who are not looking but who want a job SOURCE: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, CA Employment Development Division

17 JOB TRENDS BY CALIFORNIA METRO AREA September 2015: CA +2.8%, +444,300 ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE San Jose San Francisco San Diego Modesto Orange County Inland Empire Stockton MSA Sacramento Fresno MSA Oakland Los Angeles Ventura Bakersfield -0.2% 1.5% 3.5% 3.3% 3.0% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 2.5% 2.1% 2.0% 4.8% 4.7% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% SERIES: Total Nonfarm Employment SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division

18 CALIFORNIA JOB CHANGES BY INDUSTRY September 2015: CA +2.8%, +444,300 ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE Professional, Scientific & Technical Services Construction Leisure & Hospitality Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Admistrative & Support & Waste Services Real Estate & Rental & Leasing Wholesale Trade Health Care & Social Assistance Information Educational Services Retail Trade Government Durable Goods Finance & Insurance Nondurable Goods -1.0% 0.5% 0.4% 4.3% 3.6% 3.5% 3.5% 3.0% 2.7% 2.6% 2.0% 2.0% 1.3% 6.4% 6.8% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% SERIES: Total Nonfarm Employment By Industry SOURCE: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, CA Employment Development Division

19 CA METRO COMMERCIAL VACANCY RATES 2015 Q2 MSA Office Industrial Retail Multi-Family Los Angeles 14.8% 3.6% 5.7% 3.5% Oakland-East Bay 17.1% 8.2% 6.0% 2.8% Orange County 16.3% 3.4% 4.6% 3.3% Sacramento 20.3% 11.1% 10.0% 2.6% San Bernardino/Riverside 22.4% 7.2% 9.1% 2.5% San Diego 14.7% 6.4% 6.1% 2.8% San Francisco 10.6% 10.4% 3.0% 3.8% San Jose 16.3% 16.2% 4.6% 3.4% Ventura 16.4% - 8.5% 2.9% SOURCE: National Association of REALTORS

20 IS IT TIME? AH LET S WAIT A LITTLE LONGER

21 RE-CALCULATING

22 MORTGAGE RATES UP? FED MEETS 12/15-16 January 2009 November % 5% MONTHLY WEEKLY 4% 3% 2% FRM ARM 1% 0% SERIES: 30Yr FRM, 1Yr ARM SOURCE: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation

23 U.S. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK p 2016f US GDP 2.4% 1.8% 2.3% 2.2% 2.4% 2.4% 2.7% Nonfarm Job Growth -0.7% 1.2% 1.7% 1.7% 1.9% 2.1% 1.8% Unemployment 9.6% 8.9% 8.1% 7.4% 6.2% 5.3% 5.0% CPI 1.6% 3.1% 2.1% 1.5% 1.6% 0.2% 2.1% Real Disposable Income, % Change 1.0% 2.5% 3.0% -0.2% 2.5% 3.3% 2.7% 30-Yr FRM 4.7% 4.5% 3.7% 4.0% 4.2% 3.9% 4.5% SERIES: U.S. Economic Outlook SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

24 CALIFORNIA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK p 2016f Nonfarm Job Growth -1.1% 1.1% 2.4% 3.0% 2.2% 2.8% 2.3% Unemployment Rate 12.3% 11.8% 10.4% 8.9% 7.5% 6.3% 5.5% Population Growth 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% Real Disposable Income, % Change 0.9% 3.4% 4.7% 0.2% 3.0% 4.3% 4.5% SERIES: CA Economic Outlook SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

25 CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK

Sold 700,000 Home Sales Membership # of Members 250,000

200,000 150,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 100,000 50,000 0

26 C.A.R. MEMBERSHIP FOLLOWS SALES WITH 1-2 YEAR LAG Units of Home Sold 700,000 Home Sales Membership # of Members 250, , , , p: 181, f: 183, , , , , , ,000 50, p

27 WHERE ARE WE? Housing market has recovered Welcome to the new normal Low mortgage rates Job & Income growth are positive And yet Supply well below long-run average Share of first-time buyers LOW Affordability key concern for everyone It s not an easy market/transaction for anyone.

Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14

28 SALES OF EXISTING DETACHED HOMES California, Oct 2015 Sales: 403,510 Units, +6.7% YTD, +1.3% YTY 700, , , ,000 Oct-14: 398,510 Oct-15: 403, , , ,000 - Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized

29 SHARE OF EQUITY SALES REACHED THE HIGHEST LEVEL IN THE LAST SIX YEARS 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Equity Sales Short Sale REO 94.1% 10% 0% Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul % 2.5% SERIES: Distressed Sales, Not Seasonally Adjusted SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

30 ORANGE COUNTY Preforeclosure: 1,335 Auction: 1,033 Bank Owned: 1,107 SOURCE: PropertyRadar on 11/16/15

31 ORANGE COUNTY Preforeclosure: 1,335 Auction: 1,033 Bank Owned: 1,107 SOURCE: PropertyRadar on 11/16/15

32 ORANGE COUNTY Preforeclosure: 1,335 Auction: 1,033 Bank Owned: 1,107 SOURCE: PropertyRadar on 11/16/15

33 NEWPORT BEACH Preforeclosure: 32 Auction: 21 Bank Owned: 25 SOURCE: PropertyRadar on 11/16/15

34 COSTA MESA Preforeclosure: 37 Auction: 29 Bank Owned: 37 SOURCE: PropertyRadar on 11/16/15

35 IRVINE Preforeclosure: 79 Auction: 57 Bank Owned: 57 SOURCE: PropertyRadar on 11/16/15

Oct-15: $475,990 $200,000 $100,000 $- Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10

36 MEDIAN PRICE OF EXISTING DETACHED HOMES California, Oct 2015: $475,990, -1.3% MTM, +5.7% YTY $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 P: May-07 $594,530 T: Feb-09 $245,230-59% from peak Oct-14: $450,460 Oct-15: $475,990 $200,000 $100,000 $- Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

37 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (EXISTING SFH) 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% So CA 6 per. Mov. Avg. (So CA) -25% Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 SERIES: Sales, Not Seasonally Adjusted SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13

38 PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT Oct 2015: $237, Up 0.3% MTM, Up 2.8% YTY PRICE PER SQ. FT. $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

39 CALIFORNIA VS. U.S. MEDIAN PRICES $600,000 California US CA Price Trend $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $ SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION ASSOCIATION OF OF REALTORS REALTORS

40 INVENTORY CONTINUED TO DECLINE FROM LAST YEAR Oct 2014: 3.8 Months; Oct 2015: 3.7 Months Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan- Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan- Jul-08 Jan- Jul-09 Jan-10 Note: Unsold Inventory Index represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were Active, Pending, and Contingent (when available) and divide the sum by the number of Sold properties for the month in question. SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15

41 WHERE IS THE INVENTORY? Affordability challenge for repeat buyers Low rate on current mortgage Low property taxes Concerned with capital gains Why list when there is nowhere to go I can afford? Could not qualify for a mortgage today Foreclosure pipeline is dry Investors renting instead of flipping New construction recovering but LOW Demographics: Trade-up buyer pool is smaller Measurement error? Off- MLS (aka pocket ) listings not being counted in listing stats

42 ORANGE COUNTY

43 SALES OF RESIDENTIAL HOMES Orange County, October 2015: 2,418 Units Down 9.8% MTM, Down 0.1% YTY SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics

44 MEDIAN PRICE OF RESIDENTIAL HOMES Orange County, October 2015: $580,000 Down 3.3% MTM, Up 2.1% YTY SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics

45 FOR SALE PROPERTIES Orange County, October 2015: 10,271 Units Down 6.4% MTM, Down 16.0% YTY Note: For Sale Properties represents the overall supply that exist throughout the entire month, including any listings that appear as Active any point in time during the month. SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics

46 MONTH S SUPPLY OF INVENTORY Orange County, October 2015: 2.5 Months Note: Month s Supply of Inventory represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were For Sale on the last day of the month in question. The inventory figure is then divided by the number of properties that went Under Contract during the month. SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics

47 NEWPORT BEACH

48 SALES OF RESIDENTIAL HOMES Newport Beach, October 2015: 60 Units Down 36.2% MTM, Up 1.7% YTY SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics

49 MEDIAN PRICE OF RESIDENTIAL HOMES Newport Beach, October 2015: $1,645,000 Up 18.6% MTM, Up 9.7% YTY SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics

50 FOR SALE PROPERTIES Newport Beach, October 2015: 433 Units Down 4.6% MTM, Down 11.8% YTY Note: For Sale Properties represents the overall supply that exist throughout the entire month, including any listings that appear as Active any point in time during the month. SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics

2016 CALIFORNIA ECONOMIC & MARKET FORECAST

2016 CALIFORNIA ECONOMIC & MARKET FORECAST October 8, 2015 EXPO San Jose Convention Center Leslie Appleton Young, Vice President & Chief Economist HOW DID I DO? LAST OCTOBER I TOLD YOU 1 2015 FORECAST