2017 Market Outlook Continued Growth, Price Stability Mark Boud Chief Economist, Metrostudy DATA. DIGITAL. DISRUPTION.
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1 2017 Market Outlook Continued Growth, Price Stability Mark Boud Chief Economist, Metrostudy DATA. DIGITAL. DISRUPTION.
2 GDP Growth Has Slowed (International Issues) 8% GDP Quarterly Growth Rate 6% 4% AVERAGE SINCE 1980 = 2.5% 2% 0% 1.2% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% Source: U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 2
3 Strong but Slightly Slower Job Growth Year-over-Year Job Growth, NSA, ,522,000 YOY 4,000,000 2,000,000 - (2,000,000) (4,000,000) (6,000,000) (8,000,000) Source: U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 3
4 Business & Medical Services Leading the Way Employment Growth by Industry, 2Q 2016 Prof & Business Services Transportation, Trade & Utilities Education & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Construction Financial Activities Manufacturing Information Natural Resources & Mining Government Other Services (200,000) (100,000) - 100, , , , , , ,000 Source: U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 4
5 Unemployment Trends Continue Downward 19.0% Unemployment Rate Trend 450,000 Initial Unemployment Claims, % 400, % 13.0% 11.0% 9.0% 7.0% 5.0% Expanded Unemployment Rate (U-6) Official Unemployment Rate 4.9% 9.7% 350, , , , , ,000 50, % - Source: U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Source: U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 5
6 There is Room to Expand 67% 66% 65% Labor Force Participation Rate, If we had June 2008's Labor Participation Rate today, we'd have 8.6 million more people in the labor force. 64% 63% 62% 61% 60% Source: U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 6
7 Population Growth by Generation 7
8 $35,487 $35,912 $36,463 $37,067 $37,689 $38,019 $38,905 $40,145 $41,145 $42,002 $42,971 $43,787 $44,617 $45,164 $45,869 $47,254 $49,500 $51,331 $51,200 $50,141 $50,255 $50,900 $51,774 $52,489 $53,390 $54,550 $56,040 $57,810 $59,630 $61,450 $63,290 $65,140 $70,000 Household Incomes Continue to Rise MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME UNITED STATES 3RD QUARTER 2016 $60, % Household Income - United States $50, % 16.0% $40,000 $30,000 5-Year Forecast 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% $20, % 2.0% $10, % Less than $15,000 $15,000 to $24,999 $25,000 to $34,999 $35,000 to $49,999 $50,000 to $74,999 $75,000 to $99,999 $100,000 to $124,999 $125,000 to$150,000 to $149,999 $199,999 $200,000 and Over $0 2021prj 2020prj 2019prj 2018prj 2017prj 2016est c 2016est 2021proj 8
9 Consumer Confidence Trending Up Consumer Confidence Index Source: Conference Board 9
10 Confidence Will Grow as Unemployment Falls Unemployment Rate & Consumer Confidence Index Present Situation Unemployment rate 10.0% 9.3% 8.6% 7.9% 7.2% 6.5% 5.8% 5.1% 4.4% 3.7% 3.0% Source: Conference Board, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 10
11 Inflation Remains Low Consumer Price Index Change, % 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% 2.85% 1.58% 2.66% 2.28% 3.39% 3.23% 2.85% 3.84% -0.36% 1.64% 3.16% 2.07% 1.46% 1.62% 0.1% 0.7% Source: U. S. Dept. of Labor 11
12 Mortgage Rates Near All-Time Lows 9% Key Interest Rate History, Yr Rate 10 Year T-Bill Fed Funds Rate 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3.57% 12% 10% 8% 6% 30-YEAR FIXED RATE MORTGAGES NATIONAL AVERAGES 3RD QUARTER Year Forecast 3% 2% 1% 4% 2% 0% 10.1% 9.2% 8.4% 7.3% 8.4% 8.0% 7.8% 7.6% 6.9% 7.4% 8.1% 7.0% 6.6% 5.8% 5.8% 5.9% 6.4% 6.3% 6.0% 5.0% 4.7% 4.4% 3.7% 4.0% 4.2% 3.8% 3.6% 3.8% 4.3% 4.8% 5.3% 5.3% 2021prj 2020prj 2019prj 2018prj 2017prj 2016est % Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, Federal Reserve Bank of NY 12
13 Refinancing Bottoming Out Refinancing Percentage of All Mortgages 90% 80% 79.7% 82.0% 70% 69.6% 75.2% 65.3% 66.0% 60% 50% 61.8% 51.6% 53.0% 59.4% 54.8% 40% 30% Source: Mortgage Bankers Association 13
14 Housing Starts Rise But Remain Below Norm 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Housing Starts (in 000s) 2005 Peak 2,068, Trough 554k 2015 Total 1,111k Total Total 1,353k 1,265k Multi- Family Single Family 0 Source: U.S. Commerce Dept., Metrostudy Housing Starts Single Family Projection Multi-Family Projection 14
15 New Home Sales Rise but Remain Below Norm 1,400 1,200 New Home Sales Year 2016 Year estimate 1, Peak 1,279, Trough 306k Source: U.S. Commerce Department, Metrostudy k k 17% 12% 11% 11% 12% 9% 21% 41% 50% 67% 77% 72% New Home Sales Existing Home Sales Distressed Housing New Home Sales Forecast 15
16 Median Home Price New Home Premium is High $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0 Affordability & Home Buying Power Existing Home Price New Home Price Existing Home Affordability New Home Affordability 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% % of Households That Can Afford Median Price Home Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, Metrostudy 16
17 Purchasing Managers Index Rising 65.0 ISM - Purchasing Managers Index, GROWTH NO GROWTH RECESSION Source: Institute of Supply Management 17
18 Remodeling Activity Rapidly Rising 18
19 Remodeling Heats Up in 2017 Year 2016 Year
20 THE MODEL 20
21 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 prj Jan-18 prj Jan-19 prj Jan-20 prj Jan-21 prj Jan-22 prj Units Demand/Supplied Housing Demand Exceeds Supply 160,000, ,000,000 HOUSING DEMAND AND SUPPLY PATTERNS UNITED STATES 140,000, ,000, ,000, ,000,000 5-Year Forecast 100,000,000 90,000,000 Total Housing Supply Total Housing Demand 21
22 Demand Grows Faster Than Supply thru 2018 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 HOUSING (OVER)/UNDER SUPPLY PATTERNS UNITED STATES 10,000,000 UNDER BUILT 5,000,000 - OVER BUILT (5,000,000) 5-Year Forecast (10,000,000) (15,000,000) 22
23 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 prj Jan-18 prj Jan-19 prj Jan-20 prj Jan-21 prj Median Housing Value $97,017 $102,500 $105,017 $108,742 $112,808 $116,492 $122,267 $128,650 $135,467 $140,667 $146,517 $155,483 $167,042 $179,325 $194,208 $219,017 $221,583 $214,150 $193,375 $172,425 $172,258 $166,067 $177,258 $197,175 $208,283 $222,367 $234,250 $244,033 $250,383 $253,442 $255,075 $255,375 $275,000 Prices Will Begin to Plateau HOUSING VALUATION PATTERNS UNITED STATES $250,000 $225,000 $200,000 $175,000 $150,000 $125,000 $100,000 $75,000 5-Year Forecast $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0 MEDIAN ANNUAL HOME PRICE UNITED STATES 3RD QUARTER Year Forecast 2021prj 2020prj 2019prj 2018prj 2017prj 2016est Source: NATIONAL Association of Realtors; RealtyTrac; various county recorders offices; Real Estate Economics Historical/Forecast Home Price Income Supported Home Price 23
24 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 $80,000 Heading Toward Over Valuation HOUSING (OVER)/UNDER VALUATION PATTERNS UNITED STATES OVER VALUED UNDER VALUED $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $0 ($20,000) ($40,000) 5-Year Forecast 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% 5.7% ANNUAL CHANGES IN MEDIAN HOME PRICES UNITED STATES 3RD QUARTER % 3.5% 3.7% 3.3% 5.0% 5.2% 5.3% 3.8% 4.2% 6.1% 7.4% 7.4% 8.3% 12.8% 1.2% -3.4% -9.7% -10.8% -0.1% -3.6% 6.7% 11.2% 5-Year Forecast 5.6% 6.8% 5.3% 4.2% 2.6% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 2021prj 2020prj 2019prj 2018prj 2017prj 2016est ($60,000) Source: NATIONAL Association of Realtors; RealtyTrac; various county recorders offices; Real Estate Economics ($80,000) 24
25 Housing Value and Affordability RESIDENTIAL MARKET OPPORTUNITY/RISK INDEX UNITED STATES 3RD QUARTER 2016 Housing Housing Market is Over/ Average Ann. Price Equilibrium 30-Yr. Median Market is Under/ O/R Index Mkt. Health Buy/Sell Year Demand Supply (Under) Built Home Price Change Home Price Mtg. Rate HH Income (Over) Valued (100=Equil.) in ~ 24 Mos. Land ,573, ,848,312 (2,274,813) (2.2%) Overbuilt $97,017 - $97, % $35,487 $ % Undervalued 98.6 Stable Buy/Sell ,741, ,068,004 (4,326,048) (4.2%) Overbuilt $102, % $105, % $35,912 $3, % Undervalued 98.0 Weak Sell ,268, ,063,216 (4,795,016) (4.6%) Overbuilt $105, % $114, % $36,463 $9, % Undervalued 99.7 Stable Buy/Sell ,418, ,153,293 (3,734,526) (3.5%) Overbuilt $108, % $128, % $37,067 $19, % Undervalued Stable Buy/Sell ,807, ,352,944 (1,545,442) (1.4%) Overbuilt $112, % $117, % $37,689 $5, % Undervalued Stable Buy/Sell ,786, ,708,680 77, % Underbuilt $116, % $122, % $38,019 $5, % Undervalued Stable Buy/Sell ,239, ,071,912 1,167, % Underbuilt $122, % $125, % $38,905 $3, % Undervalued Stable Buy/Sell ,337, ,495,626 2,842, % Underbuilt $128, % $131, % $40,145 $2, % Undervalued Stable Buy/Sell ,533, ,948,617 4,584, % Underbuilt $135, % $142, % $41,145 $7, % Undervalued Strong Buy ,624, ,556,900 6,068, % Underbuilt $140, % $137, % $42,002 ($2,840) (2.0%) Overvalued Stable Buy/Sell ,449, ,223,597 7,225, % Underbuilt $146, % $131, % $42,971 ($14,988) (10.2%) Overvalued Stable Buy/Sell ,734, ,810,093 5,924, % Underbuilt $155, % $147, % $43,787 ($7,615) (4.9%) Overvalued Stable Buy/Sell ,612, ,423,798 3,188, % Underbuilt $167, % $155, % $44,617 ($11,072) (6.6%) Overvalued 99.9 Stable Buy/Sell ,553, ,130,069 1,423, % Underbuilt $179, % $168, % $45,164 ($10,422) (5.8%) Overvalued 99.1 Stable Buy/Sell ,135, ,008,626 1,127, % Underbuilt $194, % $170, % $45,869 ($23,993) (12.4%) Overvalued 96.9 Weak Sell ,501, ,077,585 1,424, % Underbuilt $219, % $173, % $47,254 ($45,574) (20.8%) Overvalued 94.6 Weak Sell ,006, ,174,920 1,831, % Underbuilt $221, % $170, % $49,500 ($51,533) (23.3%) Overvalued 94.0 Weak Sell ,709, ,964,500 1,745, % Underbuilt $214,150 (3.4%) $176, % $51,331 ($38,019) (17.8%) Overvalued 95.6 Weak Sell ,233, ,294,581 (61,482) (0.0%) Overbuilt $193,375 (9.7%) $179, % $51,200 ($13,424) (6.9%) Overvalued 97.9 Weak Sell ,838, ,196,373 (6,357,711) (4.8%) Overbuilt $172,425 (10.8%) $194, % $50,141 $22, % Undervalued Stable Buy/Sell ,165, ,819,426 (7,653,679) (5.8%) Overbuilt $172,258 (0.1%) $201, % $50,255 $29, % Undervalued 99.9 Stable Buy/Sell ,896, ,374,096 (6,477,709) (4.9%) Overbuilt $166,067 (3.6%) $208, % $50,900 $42, % Undervalued Strong Buy ,279, ,942,194 (4,663,155) (3.5%) Overbuilt $177, % $231, % $51,774 $53, % Undervalued Strong Buy ,501, ,687,713 (3,185,944) (2.4%) Overbuilt $197, % $224, % $52,489 $27, % Undervalued Stable Buy/Sell ,967, ,612,385 (1,645,034) (1.2%) Overbuilt $208, % $222, % $53,390 $14, % Undervalued Stable Buy/Sell ,749, ,601, , % Underbuilt $222, % $237, % $54,550 $14, % Undervalued Stable Buy/Sell 2016est 138,208, ,673,415 1,535, % Underbuilt $234, % $251, % $56,040 $17, % Undervalued Stable Buy/Sell 2017prj 140,639, ,829,477 2,809, % Underbuilt $244, % $253, % $57,810 $9, % Undervalued Stable Buy/Sell 2018prj 142,790, ,183,764 3,606, % Underbuilt $250, % $246, % $59,630 ($3,474) (1.4%) Overvalued Stable Buy/Sell 2019prj 144,304, ,652,590 3,651, % Underbuilt $253, % $237, % $61,450 ($15,805) (6.2%) Overvalued 99.9 Stable Buy/Sell 2020prj 145,401, ,135,872 3,265, % Underbuilt $255, % $233, % $63,290 ($21,998) (8.6%) Overvalued 99.0 Stable Buy/Sell 25
26 Best New Home Markets:
27 Best New Home Markets:
28 Commercial Markets Remain Strong $ % % $ % 60 $ % 50 $ % % $ % $ % % 10 $ % $ % 0 Office/Industrial/Retail Space Vacancy Asking Absorption Rents Trends Trends 4Q'15 4Q'15 1Q'16 1Q'16 2Q'16 3Q'16e 4Q'16p 1Q'17p 1Q'17p Office Office Absorption Office Asking Vacancy (msf) Rent Industrial Absorption Asking Vacancy Rent (msf) Retail Retail Asking Absorpion Vacancy Rent (msf) 28
29 Consumer Spending is Rising 29
30 Key Takeaways for million jobs will be created, 1.27 million starts, and 1.16 million closings (including multi-family). 2. Slightly slower job growth than Year 2016 (international demand slows, potential public policy challenges/tax increases). 3. Remodeling and Replacement activity will reach another new high in 2017, with a 4.2% increase (too few new homes being constructed). 4. Mortgage rates will begin to gradually rise (this time, we mean it). 5. By Year-end 2017, the US housing market will be under supplied by 2.81 million homes, yet still slightly under valued. 30
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