The Arkansas Economic Outlook

Transcription

1 The Arkansas Economic Outlook Dr. Michael Pakko Chief Economist and State Economic Forecaster Institute for Economic Advancement, UALR November 16, 2016 The views expressed are my own, and do not necessarily reflect the positions of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the Federal Reserve System, the University of Arkansas at Little Rock, the University of Arkansas System, or the Institute for Economic Advancement.

2 Overview Review of Economic Conditions: Output Income Spending Employment/Unemployment Arkansas lagged the nation through much of the economic recovery particularly in employment. Since 2014, employment growth has accelerated. Outlook: Slow, but steady economic growth.

3 Gross Domestic Product Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

4 Gross Domestic Product Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

5 Gross Domestic Product Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

6 Gross Domestic Product Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

7 Coincident Indexes Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

8 Coincident Indexes Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

9 Personal Income Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

10 Personal Income Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

11 Personal Income Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

12 Personal Income Personal Income Growth, 2010:Q1-2016:Q2 Annualized Growth Rates Growth as Percent of Personal Income Growth U.S. Arkansas U.S. Arkansas Personal Income Wages & Salaries Proprietors' Income Dividends, Interest & Rent Transfer Receipts Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

13 Taxable Sales Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement.

14 Taxable Sales Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement.

15 Taxable Sales Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement.

16 Taxable Sales Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, U.S. Census Bureau, Institute for Economic Advancement.

17 Home Sales Sources: Arkansas Realtors Association, Institute for Economic Advancement.

18 Home Sales Sources: Arkansas Realtors Association, Institute for Economic Advancement.

19 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Unemployment

20 Unemployment Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) - Arkansas Thousands Unemployment 40 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul ,320 Employment 1,300 1,280 Thousands 1,260 1,240 1,220 1,200 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul ,370 Labor Force 1,360 1,350 Thousands 1,340 1,330 1,320 1,310 1,300 1,290 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

21 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Unemployment

22 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Unemployment

23 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Unemployment

24 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment

25 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment

26 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment

27 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment

28 Employment Arkansas Nonfarm Payroll Employment Employment changes (thousands of jobs), December September 2016 As Published Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Expected Revision Change Mining & Logging Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation & Utilities Information Services Financial Services Professional & Business Services Education & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Services Other Services Government TOTAL Percent 2.7% 2.3% -0.4%

29 Economic Forecasts Prediction is difficult particularly when it involves the future." Mark Twain

30 Forecast Methodology Model: Arkansas Baseline from Moody s Analytics. Part of a structural econometric model of the U.S. Economy Linked to US forecast, with relationships estimated by sector Baseline forecast from Moody s macroeconomic U.S. model Alternative Forecast Paths: Wells Fargo Wall Street Journal NABE Augmentations: Judgmental adjustments and time-series estimation of nationalstate model linkages and assumptions (e.g. productivity trends).

31 Employment Q4/Q4 Growth K 1.7% 26.2K 2.2% 10.2K 0.8% 11.2K 0.9% 11.9K 1.0%

32 Employment Q4/Q4 Growth K 1.7% 19.7K 1.6% 11.8K 1.0% 11.1K 0.9% 11.8K 1.0% Including expected revision in 2017

33 Employment Arkansas Nonfarm Payroll Employment Growth Forecasts for 2016:Q4-2018:Q4 Employment changes Thousands of Jobs Percent Mining & Logging Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation & Utilities Information Services Financial Services Professional & Business Services Education & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Services Other Services Government TOTAL

34 Real GDP

35 Real GDP Q4/Q4 Growth (%)

36 Personal Income Q4/Q4 Growth (%)

37 Retail Sales Q4/Q4 Growth (%)

38 Home Sales Sales (Pct. Change) K 7.3% 30.9K 10.0% 33.6K 8.7% 36.5K 8.4% 36.5K 0.2%

39 Unemployment End of Year (Q4)

40 Arkansas Economist For more information and analysis of the Arkansas Economy, visit the Arkansas Economist: