Data Digest: Georgia. October 2013
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1 Data Digest: Georgia October 2013
2 Georgia s economic performance has improved steadily since December The state s coincident economic indicator for August is at its highest level since mid About the Coincident Economic Indicator Jan 2001 = Coincident Economic Indicator United States Georgia Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia 2
3 Employment in the state has slowly improved since the end of the recession. Total employment declined in August after more than 30,000 jobs were added in July. Thousands, seasonally adjusted 4,300 Georgia Payroll Employment 4,100 3,900 3,700 3,500 3,300 3,100 2,900 2,700 2, Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics 3
4 Both construction and manufacturing were especially hard hit during the downturn but are slowly adding back jobs. Leisure and hospitality, education and health care, business services employment, and transportation/warehouse/utilities now exceed prerecession levels. State and federal government jobs decreased in August. Local government State government Federal government Other services Leisure & hospitality Education & healthcare Business services Financial services Information Transport/Warehousing/Utilities Retail trade Wholesale trade Manufacturing Construction-37.9 Total Note: A reading of 0.0 in the trough to present measure indicates that employment continues to decline in these industries. Likewise, a reading of 0.0 in the peak to trough measure indicates that employment continues to increase in these industries; in this instance trough to present is the percent change from January 2007 to present Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Employment Loss and Gain by Industry: Georgia Percent change peak to trough Percent change trough to present
5 Led by business services, many of the sectors experienced expanding employment momentum in August. State government, federal government, manufacturing, and other services remained weak. 3-month average annualized percent change About Employment Momentum 10 Improving Employment Momentum by Sector: Georgia Expanding 8 Retail trade Business services 6 4 Education and health care 2 Local government Financial services Construction Leisure and hospitality 0 Other services -2-4 Federal government Manufacturing State government Wholesale trade Transportation/ Warehouse/ Utilities -6 Information -8 Contracting Slipping Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 5
6 Job losses in many of Georgia s metropolitan areas were quite severe during the downturn, but each of Georgia s metro areas has added back some jobs since their trough. Warner Robins Valdosta Savannah Rome Macon Gainesville Dalton Columbus Brunswick Augusta Atlanta Athens Albany Georgia Employment Loss and Gain by Metro Area: Georgia Percent change peak to trough Percent change trough to present Note: A reading of 0.0 in the trough to present measure indicates that employment continues to decline in these metro areas. Likewise, a reading of 0.0 in the peak to trough measure indicates that employment continues to increase in these metro areas; in this instance trough to present is the percent change from January 2007 to present Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
7 Employment momentum for many of Georgia s smaller metro areas slipped or contracted in August. Atlanta, Augusta, Macon, Gainesville, and Columbus were clearly in the expanding quadrant. 3-month average annualized percent change About Employment Momentum 6 Improving Employment Momentum by Metro Area: Georgia Macon Expanding 4 Atlanta 2 Augusta Gainesville Albany Columbus 0 Warner Robins Rome Valdosta -2 Dalton Brunswick Athens Savannah -4 Contracting Slipping Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 7
8 3-month average percent change, annualized Since September 2010, Georgia s employment momentum has remained in the expanding quadrant each month except for September 2012, when it slipped slightly. About Employment Momentum Track 4 Improving Employment Momentum Track January 2007 Expanding Contracting Slipping Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 8
9 Georgia s unemployment rate declined in August after increasing each of the previous three months. Percent of labor force 11 Unemployment Rates Georgia United States Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics Note: The MSA numbers are not available for ; the numbers listed are for July
10 Initial claims for unemployment insurance in Georgia have fallen to prerecession levels. 4-week moving average 25,000 Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims: Georgia through September 21, ,000 21,000 19,000 17,000 15,000 13,000 11,000 9,000 7,000 5, Source: U.S Department of Labor Employment and Training Administration, Haver Analytics 10
11 Georgia s sales tax revenues remain lower than year-ago numbers. Year-over-year percent change, 3-month average 20 Georgia Sales Tax Revenue Source: Georgia Department of Revenue, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 11
12 Regional manufacturing activity accelerated somewhat, but remained barely in expansionary territory in August, according to the Southeast Purchasing Managers Index produced by Kennesaw State University. Georgia s component measured 48.5, just below the regional measure of Southeast Purchasing Managers Index The Georgia component of the SE PMI declined to 48.5 in Note: 50+ = Expansion Source: Kennesaw State University, Coles College of Business Econometrics Center 12
13 The number of new home construction permits issued in Georgia has declined each month since May. 200,000 New Residential Home Construction Permits 12, , ,000 10, , ,000 8, ,000 6,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 United States (left scale) Georgia (right scale) 4,000 2, Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Haver Analytics 13
14 Home prices in Georgia declined substantially from 2007 to After stabilizing somewhat in 2009 and early 2010, prices fell through much of 2011 and early Home prices in each of the state s metro areas increased year over year during the second quarter of Jan 2000 = S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index through July Atlanta Composite Source: S&P, Haver Analytics Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 14
15 Office vacancy rates rose throughout the recession and remain elevated. Percent 24 Office Vacancy Rate Q United States Atlanta Source: CB Richard Ellis, Haver Analytics 15
16 Industrial availability rates remain elevated in Atlanta. Percent 22 Industrial Availability Rate Q United States Atlanta Source: CB Richard Ellis, Haver Analytics 16
17 For additional sources of information, see our Local Economic Analysis Research Network membership at 17
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