Data Digest: Alabama. June 2013

Transcription

1 Data Digest: Alabama June 2013

2 Broad indicators of economic activity for Alabama remain well below the indicators for the United States. About the Coincident Economic Indicator Jan 2001 = Coincident Economic Indicator United States Alabama Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia 2

3 Total employment in Alabama has increased slightly during the first four months of 2013, but it continues to be quite below prerecession levels. Thousands, seasonally adjusted 2,100 Alabama Payroll Employment 2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 1, Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics 3

4 All industries lost jobs during the downturn. The construction industry was the hardest hit, losing more than 32 percent of its jobs. All sectors have seen some job gains since their troughs, with business services experiencing the largest increase. Federal government Local government State government Other services Leisure & hospitality Education & healthcare Business services Financial services Information Transportation/Warehouse/Utilities Retail trade Wholesale trade Manufacturing Construction Total Employment Loss and Gain by Industry: Alabama Percent change peak to trough Percent change trough to present Note: A reading of 0.0 in the trough to present measure indicates that employment continues to decline in these industries. Likewise, a reading of 0.0 in the peak to trough measure indicates that employment continues to increase in these industries; in this instance trough to present is the percent change from January 2007 to present Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

5 Employment momentum in manufacturing, wholesale trade, health care and private education, leisure and hospitality, and local government expanded in April. Other sectors contracted or slipped; state government and information continued to be the weakest sectors. Momentum in retail trade and other services improved. About Employment Momentum 3-month average annualized percent change 8 Improving Employment Momentum by Industry: Alabama Expanding 6 Wholesale trade 4 Retail trade Health care and private education Manufacturing 2 Other services Local government Leisure and hospitality 0 Federal government Business services -2 State government Construction -4 Information Transportation/ Warehouse/ Contracting Utilities Slipping Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Financial services 5

6 Job losses occurred throughout the state during the downturn, but each of Alabama s metro areas has slowly begun to rebound, with Auburn-Opelika and Tuscaloosa leading the pack. Employment Loss and Gain by Metro Area: Alabama Tuscaloosa Montgomery Mobile Huntsville Gadsden Florence-Muscle Shoals Dothan Decatur Birmingham Auburn-Opelika Anniston-Oxford Alabama Percent change peak to trough Percent change trough to present Note: A reading of 0.0 in the trough to present measure indicates that employment continues to decline in these metro areas. Likewise, a reading of 0.0 in the peak to trough measure indicates that employment continues to increase in these metro areas; in this instance trough to present is the percent change from January 2007 to present. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 6

7 Employment momentum in Birmingham and several of Alabama s other metro areas expanded in April. Momentum for Huntsville, Decatur, and Auburn-Opelika slipped while it contracted in Gadsden. 3-month average annualized percent change About Employment Momentum 4 Improving Employment Momentum by Metro Area: Alabama Expanding Florence-Muscle Shoals 2 Dothan Mobile Montgomery Anniston-Oxford Birmingham Tuscaloosa 0 Decatur Auburn-Opelika Huntsville -2 Gadsden -4 Contracting Slipping Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 7

8 The state s employment momentum track varied extensively during It moved further into the expanding quadrant in April. 3-month average percent change, annualized About Employment Momentum Track Employment Momentum Track January Improving Expanding Contracting Slipping Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 8

9 Until the recession, Alabama s unemployment rate was well below the U.S. rate. Alabama s unemployment rate has been lower than the national rate since mid Percent of labor force 11 Unemployment Rates United States Alabama Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics 9

10 The number of individuals filing initial claims for unemployment insurance increased slightly over the last month. 4-week moving average 14,000 Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims: Alabama through May 18, ,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 Initial claims averaged just over 4,700 during Comparatively, the current number of initial claims is still elevated. 2, Source: U.S Department of Labor Employment and Training Administration, Haver Analytics 10

11 Business sentiment, as measured by the University of Alabama s second quarter 2013 survey, improved but remained in negative territory. Sales tax revenue experienced negative yearover-year growth as well. Year-to-year change, 3-month moving average 15 Alabama Sales Tax Revenue and Business Confidence Index Sales Tax Revenue (left scale) Business Confidence Index (right scale) Note: Sales tax data are through ; Business Confidence Index as of second quarter Source: Alabama Department of Revenue, University of Alabama Center for Business and Economic Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 25 11

12 Regional manufacturing activity expanded in April, according to the Southeast Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) produced by Kennesaw State University. The overall regional reading of 55.5 was in expansionary territory, and Alabama s component of the PMI stood at Southeast Purchasing Managers Index The Alabama component of the SE PMI was 60 in Note: 50+ = Expansion Source: Kennesaw State University, Coles College of Business Econometric Center 12

13 Home prices for Alabama declined in the first quarter of 2013, as U.S. housing prices increased slightly for the third consecutive quarter. Q = Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Price Index through Q United States Alabama Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Haver Analytics Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 13

14 The number of new home construction permits issued in Alabama has been basically flat and remains near historically low levels of activity. 200,000 New Residential Home Construction Permits 5, ,000 4, ,000 4, ,000 3, ,000 3, ,000 2,500 80,000 2,000 60,000 1,500 40,000 20,000 United States (left scale) Alabama (right scale) 1, Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Haver Analytics 14

15 For additional sources of information, see our Local Economic Analysis Research Network membership at 15