Data Digest: Mississippi. August 2013

Transcription

1 Data Digest: Mississippi August 2013

2 Mississippi s economic activity measure has increased to levels last seen in mid About the Coincident Economic Indicator Jan 2001 = Coincident Economic Indicator United States Mississippi Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia 2

3 Total employment in Mississippi continues to improve. Thousands, seasonally adjusted 1,300 Mississippi Payroll Employment 1,200 1,100 1, Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics 3

4 All industries lost jobs during the economic downturn, some more significant than others. Led by professional and business services and mining and logging, each of Mississippi s sectors have regained some jobs since their trough. Federal & state government Local government Other services Leisure & hospitality Education & health services Professional & business services Trade/Transportation/Utilities Mining & logging Financial Services Information Manufacturing Construction Total Employment Loss and Gain by Industry: Mississippi Percent change peak to trough Percent change trough to present Note: A reading of 0.0 in the trough to present measure indicates that employment continues to decline in these industries. Likewise, a reading of 0.0 in the peak to trough measure indicates that employment continues to increase in these industries; in this instance trough to present is the percent change from January 2007 to present Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

5 3-month average annualized percent change Employment momentum in many industries in Mississippi expanded in June. Momentum in federal government, information, other services, and manufacturing contracted. Financial services moved into the slipping quadrant. About Employment Momentum 32 Improving Employment Momentum by Industry: Mississippi Expanding Construction Mining and logging 8 4 Education and health services Local government Leisure and hospitality Professional and business services Trade/Transportation/Utilities Other services Federal and state government Financial services Information Contracting Manufacturing Slipping Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 5

6 Employment losses in Mississippi and its metro areas were significant during the downturn, but each of the state s metro areas is slowly recovering. Employment Loss and Gain by Metro Area: Mississippi Jackson Hattiesburg Percent change peak to trough Percent change trough to present 2.4 Gulfport-Biloxi Mississippi Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 6

7 3-month average annualized percent change Employment momentum in Jackson expanded in June while momentum in Gulfport-Biloxi continued to improve. Hattiesburg momentum remained in the slipping quadrant. About Employment Momentum 2 Improving Employment Momentum by Metro Area: Mississippi Expanding 1 Gulfport-Biloxi Jackson 0 Hattiesburg Contracting Slipping Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 7

8 Mississippi s employment momentum remained in the expanding quadrant in June. Momentum has varied over the past year and has been expanding since last October. 3-month average percent change, annualized About Employment Momentum Track 6 Improving Employment Momentum Track: Mississippi January 2007 Expanding Contracting Slipping Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 8

9 Mississippi s unemployment rate declined for the fourth consecutive month in June, but it remains higher than the national average. However, the rate in each of the state s three major metro areas increased for the second month. Percent of labor force 12 Unemployment Rates United States Mississippi Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics 9

10 Initial claims for unemployment insurance in Mississippi remain below the peak number of claims registered during late week moving average 6,000 Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims: Mississippi through July 13, ,000 4,000 3,000 Initial claims averaged just over 3,200 per week during The current average number of initial claims has fallen below that level. 2, Source: U.S. Department of Labor Employment and Training Administration, Haver Analytics 10

11 State sales tax revenues for June are above year-ago numbers. Year-to-year change, 3-month moving average 25 Mississippi Sales Tax Revenue Source: Mississippi Department of Revenue 11

12 Regional manufacturing activity slowed but remained in expansionary territory in June, according to the Southeast Purchasing Managers Index produced by Kennesaw State University. The overall regional reading was Mississippi s component of the regional PMI declined into contractionary territory at Southeast Purchasing Managers Index The Mississippi component of the SE PMI declined to 45.7 in Note: 50+ = Expansion Source: Kennesaw State University, Coles College of Business Econometric Center 12

13 New home construction in Mississippi is rebounding slowly, but remains rather volatile. 200,000 New Residential Home Construction Permits 2, ,000 1, ,000 1, ,000 1, ,000 1, ,000 1,000 80, ,000 40,000 United States (left scale) Mississippi (right scale) , Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Haver Analytics 0 13

14 Home prices in Mississippi declined at a slower pace compared with the United States as a whole over the past several years. However, even as national home prices have increased recently, home prices in Mississippi continued to fall year over year. Q = Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Price Index through Q United States Mississippi Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Haver Analytics Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 14

15 For additional sources of information, see our Local Economic Analysis Research Network membership at 15