An abnormally-slow December caps off the year with a range of bright spots as well as challenges. U.S. employment situation: September 2013

Transcription

1 An abnormally-slow December caps off the year with a range of bright spots as well as challenges U.S. employment situation: September 2013 U.S. Release employment date: October situation: 22, December Release date: January 10, 2014

2 What were this month s bright spots and challenges? Overview Bright spots Challenges The U.S. economy added 74,000 jobs in December. Unemployment fell 30 basis points to 6.7 percent percent of jobs have been recovered; now less than 0.9 percent below previous peak employment. Office-using employment is 47.1 percent higher than previous peak. Trade, PBS, leisure and manufacturing the largest contributors to monthly growth. PBS, retail trade, leisure and hospitality and education and health the largest contributors to year-on-year growth. Service-providing industries see best year during the recovery (+2.0 million jobs). Unemployment down to 7.1 percent for high school graduates with no college; stable and much lower for degree holders. Tech still posting growth well above the national average. Initial unemployment insurance claims wobble near recovery lows. Consumer confidence sees 6.1- point rebound in line with drop in unemployment. Fastest-growing metro areas sees some geographic expansion. Total unemployment stuck at 13.1 percent, still very elevated compared to historic norms. Private sector responsible for all gains throughout the year, however seeing slowdown. Information s 12,000-job monthly contraction pushes down officeusing gains and share of overall one-month net job growth. Labor force participation rate nationally is down to 62.8 percent and for high school graduates down to 58.0 percent. Temporary help services sees 40,400 new jobs added in December, surpasses 2.8 million. Midwest and East Coast markets still lag rest of national recovery OVERVIEW 2

3 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-11 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 54,000 84, , , ,000 96,000 85,000 87,000 74,000 89,000 1-month net change 112, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,000 December saw the addition of only 74,000 jobs, the second-lowest monthly gain throughout the recovery 350, , , , , ,000 50,000 0 OVERVIEW 3

4 One-month net change (thousands) Unemployment rate (%) Three-month net change down to 515,000 but unemployment drops 30 basis points to 6.7 percent 600 Monthly employment change Unemployment rate 12% % % % % % % OVERVIEW 4

5 Recovered jobs (%) 74 months into the cycle, total employment is now less than 0.9 percent below prior peak levels Past recessions (40 years) % 100% Pre-recession employment level 98% 96% 94% 92% 90% OVERVIEW 5

6 86.5 percent of jobs have been recovered from the recession; now 1.2 million jobs below pre-recession peak Jobs lost during recession Jobs gained during recovery OVERVIEW 6

7 All office-using jobs have been recovered, but are much more tech- and management-centered Office-using jobs lost during recession Office-using jobs gained during recovery OVERVIEW 7

8 Trade, PBS, manufacturing and leisure contribute the majority gains in an otherwise slow month Retail trade 55.3 Temporary help services 40.4 Professional and business services 19.0 Wholesale trade 15.4 Manufacturing 9.0 Leisure and hospitality 9.0 Durable goods 6.0 Mining and logging 4.0 Financial activities 4.0 Nondurable goods 3.0 Motor vehicles and parts 1.0 Other services 1.0 Education and health services 0.0 Transportation and warehousing -0.6 Health care and social assistance -1.0 Information Government Construction Retail trade Manufacturing Financial activities All other jobs PBS Leisure and hospitality Education and health Core subsectors added more jobs than monthly net total. OVERVIEW 8

9 Over the year, however, core growth areas PBS, leisure, retail trade and education and health remain dominant Professional and business services Leisure and hospitality Retail trade Education and health services Health care and social assistance Temporary help services Construction Wholesale trade 95.0 Financial activities 84.0 Manufacturing 77.0 Durable goods 76.0 Transportation and warehousing 42.2 Motor vehicles and parts 39.8 Mining and logging 31.0 Other services 30.0 Nondurable goods 1.0 Information -4.0 Government month net change (thousands) PBS Retail trade Financial services All other jobs Leisure and hospitality Education and health Manufacturing Core subsectors added 86.7 percent of all jobs over the past 12 months. OVERVIEW 9

10 12-month % change Tech still leading, while energy, mining and utilities growing, but at national rates of growth High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Moody s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through November OVERVIEW 10

11 One-month net change (thousands) Service-providing industries see best year during the recovery (+2.0 million jobs) Goods-producing Service-providing BRIGHT SPOT 11

12 High school graduates see unemployment fall to 7.1 percent; rate stable, but much lower, for degree holders Bachelor's degree and higher High school graduates, no college 7.1% % BRIGHT SPOT 12

13 Tech is up near recovery norms again after seeing slowdown in recent months Year-on-year percent growth BRIGHT SPOT 13

14 Initial unemployment insurance claims fall to new lows, wobbling between 330,000 and 360,0000 per week 650,000 Initial claims 4-week moving average 600, , , , , ,000 4 week moving average below 400,000 claims (consistently) means economy is adding jobs 300, ,000 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, U.S. Department of Labor BRIGHT SPOT 14

15 Online help wanted ads Unemployment rate Online help wanted ads jump by 126,500 as unemployment drops to a recovery-low in December 6,000,000 5,000,000 New help wanted ads Unemployment rate 12.0% 10.0% 4,000, % 3,000, % 2,000, % 1,000, % % Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Conference Board BRIGHT SPOT 15

16 In line with a drop in unemployment, the consumer confidence index increased 6.1 points in December Consumer confidence index Unemployment rate 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Conference Board, Bureau of Labor Statistics BRIGHT SPOT 16

17 After a year dominated by the Sunbelt, a more varied landscape of employment growth emerges New York 2.8% Silicon Valley 2.9% Dallas 2.7% Austin 2.7% Houston 3.1% Tampa 3.3% BRIGHT SPOT 17

18 Overall wage growth and a falling number of discouraged workers point in a positive direction +$12.07 (+1.5%) Average weekly earnings are on the up year-on-year +5.2% y-o-y Management and technical consulting among the strongest components of PBS -151,000 (-14.1%) The number of discouraged workers has fallen by 14.1 percent year-on-year -140bp PBS-related unemployment is down 140 basis points year-on-year BRIGHT SPOT 18

19 Total unemployment remains steady at 13.1 percent for the month, but trending downward 18% Total unemployment U-6 10-year average 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% CHALLENGE 19

20 College graduates High school graduates participation rate drops to just 58.0 percent, with college graduate rate stable College graduates High school grads no college High school graduates Jan- 07 Jan- 08 Jan- 09 Jan- 10 Jan- 11 Jan- 12 Jan- 13 CHALLENGE 20

21 Private sector is responsible for all gains (101.1 percent) in 2013; government jobs continue their contraction Change in '000s jobs 400 Private sector hiring up 4.5 million since December Public sector shed 112,000 workers since November , CHALLENGE 21

22 Growth in trade and overall diversification of growth push down office-using industries share of gains CHALLENGE 22

23 Information s 12,000-job contraction reduces growth in office-using industries Information Professional and business services Financial activities PBS represented 75.0 percent of office jobs lost in February In December 2013, it represented all net new office-using jobs CHALLENGE 23

24 Monthly net change in jobs (ths) Temporary help services posts sharp jump in employment, surpasses 2.8 million for the first time ever Temporary employment monthly net change Temporary employment 80 3, ,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 Temporary employment (ths) -60 1, , ,000 CHALLENGE 24

25 Midwestern and East Coast markets still lag the rest of the country Oakland- East Bay 0.3% Milwaukee 0.1% St. Louis 0.5% Cleveland -0.8% Westchester County 0.5% CHALLENGE

26 Other supplementary indicators show that many challenges still remain +2,893,000 (+3.2%) The number of people out of the workforce has risen by 3.2 percent year-on-year -6 minutes On average, employees are working six fewer minutes (-0.1 hours) year-on-year -1,000 jobs (-0.0%) Legal services has seen a 12-month net contraction of 1,000 jobs 62.8% (-20bp) The labor force participation rate fell 20 basis points to 62.8 percent CHALLENGE 26

27 For more information, please contact: Ben Breslau Managing Director - Americas Research Benjamin.Breslau@am.jll.com John Sikaitis Managing Director - Office & Local Markets Research John.Sikaitis@am.jll.com Phil Ryan Research Analyst Phil.Ryan@am.jll.com 2014 Jones Lang LaSalle Research IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.