Anchorage s Economic Climate And Forecast

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1 Anchorage s Economic Climate And Forecast Girdwood! January 25th, 2016 Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research Section, Neal Fried, Economist

3 Anchorage s Past Trends, A Roadmap To The Future? 60,000 40,000 Number of Jobs , 20 year of growth ends Lost 900 jobs in 2009 Fell in , full recovery record annual count 00,000 Oil Revenue Party Alaska s Great Recession 80, *prelimi *

4 Employment Growth Gone In Anchorage In % 2.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% -0.1% -2.3% *Preliminary Series *

5 This Is How Things Are Shaping Up In Anchorage In 2016* Number of Jobs Gained and Lost in 2016 Total Care 700 ment 100 Hosp. 0 ries1 PBS Re ction d Gas ate G -400 *Preliminary

6 A word about recessions There are different definitions of recession, but generally it means a significant decline in economic activity that spreads across the economy.

7 National recessions since the 70s Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and National Bureau of Economic Research

8 Alaska recessions since the 70s

9 How long do they last? Eight quarters Nine quarters Three quarters

10 How deep are they? Losses of 15,000+ Several quarters of 10,000+ losses Modest losses (around 3,000 jobs)

11 How are things different than the 80s?! Our population is older and has been here longer! Our pre-recession economy was nowhere near as hot, especially construction and banking sectors! We have significantly larger savings! Oil production on declining trend

12 Unemployment Remains Relatively Low In Anchorage 11 Unemployment rate 3/4 U. 1/2 1/4 Anchorage 5.2%

13 Prudhoe Bay Employment Fell Fast And Hard-- More Than A Third Are Anchorage Residents historic high 13,236 12,843 13,48513,434 12,51712,468 12,32512,37812,330 11,964 12,10612,035 11,74111,764 11,898 10,816 lowest level since 10,369 10,150 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

14 Wednesday, October 5, 2016

15 Previous Oil And Gas Employment Losses In AK ,200-1, , % -9.0% -15.0% -21.0% *preliminary -21.0% *

16 Anchorage Federal Civilian Employment Making A Comeback 9,783 9,304 9,517 9,117 8,721 8,437 8,500 8, * *preliminary

17 Anchorage Uniformed Military Numbers 12,68812,78712,699 11,590 11,94212,113 11,300 10,967 12,295 11,643 10,

3 $21.3 $20.4 $19.6 $18.3 $22.7 $23.2 $25.

18 Rebound In Number of Visitors Should Continue-Cruiseship Numbers Expect To Surpass Previous Record in 2008 Anchorage bed tax collections, $millions $22.3 $21.3 $20.4 $19.6 $18.3 $22.7 $23.2 $25.2 $26.2 $ * *estimate based on first 11 months of actual data

19 State Government Has Fallen Some State government employment, Anchorage

20 No Housing Bubble Developing Here Took Past 20 Years To Build The Same Number Of Homes It Took Between Number of residential building permits issued in Anchorage 1,725 1, Source: Municipality of Anchorage

21 1200 Foreclosures, So Far There Is Little Sign Of Much Change Foreclosures In Anchorage Source: Alaska 1980 Department of Natural

22 Home Sales In Anchorage Did Not Change Much 4,018 Home sales, Anchorage 3,

23 A Pretty Attractive Income Picture Ranking State Median Household Income-2015 Anchorage $78,662 Mat-Su $76,424 1 Maryland $75,847 2 Hawaii $73,486 3 Alaska $73,355 4 New Jersey $72,222 5 Connecticut $71,346 U.S. $55,755

24 Anchorage s Per Capita Advantage Compared To The Nation s Anchorage s per capita income as a percent of the U.S

25 Anchorage s Population Increased In 2016! (299,037 Is The Number) 2882 Annual net gains in Anchorage s population The details. There were 4,572 births minus 1,673 deaths plus net migration of -2,576 =

26 More Folks Have Been Leaving Anchorage Than Moving Here For A While Net-migration--Anchorage

27 Girdwood s Population, Not Much Change Here 2,704 2,696 2,712 2,709 2,713 2,662 2,570

28 My Forecast Record And What Really Happened 1.8% 2.2% 1.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.6% -0.4% -0.6% -0.7% -0.1% % -0.9% Reality *preliminary -2.3%

29 Our 2017 employment forecast! Another year of job loss, but some important differences between 2016 and 2017:! More job loss in oil and gas, but about half as much as 2016 Also reduced losses in construction and professional and business services Bigger losses in retail trade, restaurants, banks (downstream effects of oil and state government declines) Similar losses in state government and small losses in local government Health care only sector forecasted to grow, and not by much

30 Employment In Anchorage In 2017 Is Forecast For Second Year Of Losses- 1.8% 2.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 2014 Forecas -0.1% *Preliminar -2.3% -1.8%

31 Employment In Anchorage In 2017 Is Forecast For Second Year Of Losses 2,700 3, , Forecas *Preliminar -2,800

32 Where Jobs Are Forecast to Come From And Disappear From in Forecasted job gains and losses in Leisure and Professional & Business Constructi Oil and -400

8 tons, 4 tons retail Number of Direct Jobs 700 to 1,400 Number of Indirect

33 Not Going To Bail Out The Economy Some Numbers Lots of Haze Here Numbers of Customers Number of Tons 103,123 annually-72,426 monthly 17.8 tons, 4 tons retail Number of Direct Jobs 700 to 1,400 Number of Indirect Jobs 300 to 600 Total Number of Jobs 1,000 to 2,000 Total Value Tax Revenues Retail $55.6 million $7 million

35 Anchorage Pickup Index Following Employment? Number of pick-up registrations in Anchorage,000,000,000,000, '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 ' ,232 snow machines in peaked in 2007 at 16, =$258 million, yes million in pull tabs and $71 million in bingo

City of Modesto Economic Indicators December 2014 Edition

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