1. External Economic Drivers 2. Current Conditions 3. Economic Projections 4. Long term Trends
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1 Maine s Economic Outlook: 2010 and Beyond January 12, 2010 James Breece, Ph.D. University of Maine System
2 Outline 1. External Economic Drivers 2. Current Conditions 3. Economic Projections 4. Long term Trends 5. How can Maine jump start itseconomy?
3 External Environment Global Recession Global Financial Crisis Volatile Oil Prices Meltdown in Mortgage Market Depressed household wealth Fall in Consumer confidence Weak Credit Markets Volatile Stock Market Weak kdollar Transitioning Economy The War Effort An Improvement in most areas
4 Taxable Sales Current Conditions Employment, Unemployment and Unemployment Rates Bankruptcy Filings Foreclosures
5 Total Taxable Sales January 2001 to Date $17,800,000 8% $17,300, % $16,800,000 4% Tho ousands of Do ollars $16,300,000 $15,800,000 $15,300,000 $14,800,000 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Growth Ra ate $14,300,000-8% $13,800,000-10% 12 Month Moving Total Growth Rate
6 Total Consumer Taxable Sales January 2001 to Date 8% $15,100, % lars Thou usands of Doll $14,600,000 $14,100,000 $13,600,000 $13,100,000 $12,600,000 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Growth Rat te $12,100,000-8% 12 Month Moving Total Growth Rate
7 General Merchandise Taxable Sales January 2001 to Date $3,375,000 8% Th housands of Dollars $3,275,000 $3,175,000 $3,075,000, $2,975,000 $2,875,000 $2,775,000 $2,675,000 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% Growth Rat te $2,575,000-6% 12 Month Moving Total Growth Rate
8 Building Supply Taxable Sales January 2001 to Date housands of Dollars T $2,625,000 $2,525,000 $2,425,000 $2,325,000 $2,225, $2,125,000 $2,025,000 $1,925,000 $1,825,000 $1,725,000 $1,625,000 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% Growth Rat te 12 Month Moving Total Growth Rate
9 Auto/Transportation Taxable Sales January 2001 to Date $3,950,000 15% $3,850, % $3,750,000 Th housands of Dollars $3,650,000, $3,550,000 $3,450,000 5% 0% -5% Growth Rat te $3,350,000 $3,250,000-10% $3,150,000-15% 12 Month Moving Total Growth Rate
10 Business Operating Taxable Sales January 2001 to Date $2,375,000 15% Thousands of Dollars $2,275, $2,175,000 $2,075,000, $1,975,000 $1,875,000 $1,775,000 $1,675,000 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Growth Rat te $1,575,000-20% 12 Month Moving Total Growth Rate
11 Food Store Taxable Sales January 2001 to Date ollars Th housands of D $1,575,000 $1,525,000 $1,475,000 $1,425,000, $1,375,000 $1,325,000 $1,275,000 $1,225,000 $1,175,000 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% Growth Rat te 12 Month Moving Total Growth Rate
12 Lodging Taxable Sales January 2001 to Date 10% $675,000 5% Thousands of Dollars $625,000 $575,000 0% -5% Growth Rat te $525,000-10% $475,000-15% 12 Month Moving Total Growth Rate
13 Restaurant Taxable Sales January 2001 to Date ollars Th housands of D $1,975,000 $1,925,000 $1,875,000 $1,825,000 $1,775,000 $1,725,000 $1,675,000 $1,625,000 $1,575,000 $1,525,000 $1,475,000 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% Growth Rate 12 Month Moving Total Growth Rate
14 Other Retail Taxable Sales January 2001 to Date $2,125,000 12% $2,025,000 10% Th housands of Dollars $1,925,000 $1,825,000 $1,725,000 $1,625,000 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Growth Rat te $1,525,000-2% $1,425,000-4% 12 Month Moving Total Growth Rate
15 Current Conditions Taxable Sales Employment, Unemployment and Unemployment Rates Bankruptcy Filings Foreclosures
16 Total Monthly Employment Index January 1969 November 2009 US & Maine US ME Jan 69 Jan 70 Jan 71 Jan 72 Jan 73 Jan 74 Jan 75 Jan 76 Jan 77 Jan 78 Jan 79 Jan 80 Jan 98 Jan 81 Jan 82 Jan 83 Jan 84 Jan 85 Jan 86 Jan 87 Jan 88 Jan 89 Jan 90 Jan 91 Jan 92 Jan 93 Jan 94 Jan 95 Jan 96 Jan 97 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 99 Jan 00 Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Data: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
17 1.75 Total Monthly Employment Index January 1992 November 2009 US & Maine US 1.55 ME Jan 92 Jun 92 Nov 92 Apr 93 Sep 93 Feb 94 Jul 94 Dec 94 May 95 Oct 95 Mar 96 Aug 96 Jan 97 Jun 97 Nov 97 Apr 98 Sep 98 Feb 99 Jul 99 Dec 99 May 00 Oct 00 Mar 01 Aug 01 Jan 02 Jun 02 Nov 02 Apr 03 Sep 03 Feb 04 Jul 04 Dec 04 May 05 Oct 05 Mar 06 Aug 06 Jan 07 Jun 07 Nov 07 Apr 08 Sep 08 Feb 09 Jul 09 Data: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
18 1.75 Total Monthly Employment Index January 1992 November 2009 US & Maine year loss 1.6 US 1.55 ME 10 year loss Jan 92 Jun 92 Nov 92 Apr 93 Sep 93 Feb 94 Jul 94 Dec 94 May 95 Oct 95 Mar 96 Aug 96 Jan 97 Jun 97 Nov 97 Apr 98 Sep 98 Feb 99 Jul 99 Dec 99 May 00 Oct 00 Mar 01 Aug 01 Jan 02 Jun 02 Nov 02 Apr 03 Sep 03 Feb 04 Jul 04 Dec 04 May 05 Oct 05 Mar 06 Aug 06 Jan 07 Jun 07 Nov 07 Apr 08 Sep 08 Feb 09 Jul 09 Data: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
19 100,000 95,000 Maine Manufacturing Employment Total Manufacturing Change 35% ( 33,688) 90,000 85,000 80, ,000 70,000 65,000 60,000 55,000 50, Data: Bureau of Economic Analysis
20 Annual Change in Estimated State Population: Utah Wyoming Texas Colorado District of Columbia Arizona Washington Alaska North Carolina Georgia South Carolina Idaho Oklahoma New Mexico Oregon Virginia Nevada California Delaware South Dakota Louisiana Tennessee North Dakota Nebraska Kansas Massachusetts Arkansas Montana Maryland Minnesota Alabama Florida Kentucky Hawaii Indiana Missouri Illinois New Jersey Wisconsin Iowa Connecticut Mississippi New York Pennsylvania West Virginia New Hampshire Ohio Vermont Rhode Island Maine Michigan S P R Data: US Census Bureau
21 Bangor, Lewiston Auburn, & Portland South Portlant Biddeford Unemployment 14,000 Portland South Portland Biddeford 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 Bangor 4,000 2,000 Lewiston Auburn 0 OCT JAN 2000 APR 2000 JUL 2000 OCT 2000 JAN 2001 APR 2001 JUL 2001 OCT 2001 JAN 2002 APR 2002 JUL 2002 OCT 2002 JAN 2003 APR 2003 JUL 2003 OCT 2003 JAN 2004 APR 2004 JUL 2004 OCT 2004 JAN 2005 APR 2005 JUL 2005 OCT 2005 JAN 2006 APR 2006 JUL 2006 OCT 2006 JAN 2007 APR 2007 JUL 2007 OCT 2007 JAN 2008 APR 2008 JUL 2008 OCT 2008 JAN 2009 APR 2009 JUL 2009 Data: ME Dept. of Labor & Boston Fed Reserve
22 Monthly Unemployment Rates Maine & US US Maine JAN 200 APR JUL 200 OCT JAN 200 APR JUL 200 OCT JAN 200 APR JUL 200 OCT JAN 200 APR 200 JUL 200 OCT 200 JAN 200 APR 200 JUL 200 OCT 200 JAN 200 APR 200 JUL 200 OCT 200 JAN 200 APR 200 JUL JAN 200 OCT APR 200 JUL 200 OCT 200 JAN 200 APR 200 JUL 200 OCT 200 JAN 200 APR 200 JUL 200 OCT Data: ME Dept. of Labor & Boston Fed Reserve
23 Monthly Local Unemployment Rates Bangor, Lewiston Auburn, and Portland South Portland Biddeford Lewiston Auburn Bangor Portland South Portland Biddeford JAN APR 200 JUL OCT 200 JAN APR 200 JUL JAN 200 OCT APR JUL 200 OCT 200 JAN 200 APR 200 JUL 200 OCT 200 JAN 200 APR 200 JUL 200 OCT 200 JAN 200 APR 200 JUL 200 OCT 200 JAN 200 APR 200 JUL 200 OCT 200 JAN 200 APR 200 JUL 200 OCT 200 JAN 200 APR 200 JUL 200 OCT 200 JAN 200 APR 200 JUL 200 OCT Data: ME Dept. of Labor
24 Unemployment Claims California Pennsylvania New York Michigan Illinois Florida Texas Wisconsin Ohio Georgia Washington North Carolina New Jersey Missouri Oregon Massachusetts Indiana Minnesota Iowa Virginia Maryland Kentucky Nevada Tennessee South Carolina Arizona Alabama Connecticut Kansas Idaho Colorado Oklahoma Arkansas Mississippi Louisiana Nebraska Utah Maine Puerto Rico Montana Hawaii West Virginia Alaska New Hampshire Rhode Island New Mexico Vermont North Dakota District of Columbia South Dakota Delaware Wyoming Claims Change from last year 80,898 18,000 8,000 2,000 12,000 22,000 32,000 42,000 Data: US Dept. of Labor, 12/19/2009
25 Current Conditions Taxable Sales Employment, Unemployment and Unemployment Rates Bankruptcy Filings Foreclosures
26 Maine Bankruptcy Filings 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Data: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
27 Current Conditions Taxable Sales Employment, Unemployment and Unemployment Rates Bankruptcy Filings Foreclosures
28 Properties with Foreclosure Filings in November, 2009 United States
29 Properties with Foreclosure Filings in November, 2009 Maine
30 Projections Consensus Economic Forecasting Commission Revenue Forecast Committee Past Recessions
31 Consensus Economic Forecasting Commission Projections of Annual Employment and Population Growth Wage & Salary Employment (Annual Percentage Change) Actual Forecast November Personal Income (Annual Percentage Change) November
32 Revenue Forecasting Committee Summary of December 2009 Revenue Revisions General Fund Summary FY09 Actual FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 Current Forecast In millions $2,811 $2,857 $2,898 $2,939 $3,035 Annual % Growth -9.0% 1.6% 1.4% 1.4% 3.3% Net Increase (Decrease) In millions ($209) ($174) ($164) ($147) Revised Forecast In millions $2,811 $2,647 $2,724 $2,774 $2,889 Annual % Growth -9.0% -5.8% 2.9% 1.9% 4.1%
33 ,500.0 General Fund Revenue 3, ,500.0 llio n s $ in M i 2, , , FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 Individual Income Tax Sales and Use Tax Corporate Income Tax Other Revenue Sources Data: Revenue Forecasting Committee 2013 is $200 million below 2008
34 Maine Resident - Net Capital Gains Tax Year Capital Gains Realizations ($ millions) Capital Gains Tax Liability ($ Millions) 2006 $2,280.2 $ $2,470.3 $ * $1,010.3 $ * $959.8 $ * $1,027.0 $ * $1,098.9 $ * $1,176.0 $ * $1,258.2 $81.8 Data: Revenue Forecasting Committee
35 Past Recessions Business Cycle Reference Date Net Job Loss in US Net Job Loss in Maine Start t of Recession # of Months # (000's) % # (000's) % Dec % % Nov , % % Jan % % Jul , % % Jul , % % Mar , % % Dec 07 Through Nov 09 7, % % Data: National Bureau of Economic Research
36 Past Recessions Business Cycle Reference Date Net Job Loss in US Net Job Loss in Maine Start t of Recession # of Months # (000's) % # (000's) % Dec % % Nov , % % Jan % % Jul , % % Jul , % % Mar , % % Dec , % % Data: National Bureau of Economic Research
37 Employment Trends According to Harvard University Labor Economist tlawrence Katz: Kt The U.S. has lost over 7 million jobs Would need 300,000 net new jobs a month for two years to recover job losses not sustainable growth. Hence, it may take at least five years or more to recover.
38 Employment Trends Dixie Sommers, of the BLS expects the following occupations to provide the greatest number of jobs over the next decade: 1. Registered Nurses 2. Home health aides 3. Customer service representatives 4. Food preparation and serving workers 5. Personal and home care aides 6. Retail salespersons 7. Office clerks 8. Accountants 9. Nursing aides, orderlies and attendants 10. Postsecondary teachers
39 Employment Trends Dixie Sommers, of the BLS expects the following occupations to provide the greatest number of jobs over the next decade: 1. Registered Nurses 4. Food preparation and serving workers 5. Personal and home care aides 6. Retail salespersons 7. Office clerks 8. Accountants 9. Nursing aides, orderlies and attendants 10. Postsecondary teachers 2. Home health aides 7 of the top 3. Customer service representatives 10 are lowskill, low wage jobs.
40 Employment Trends 7 of the top 10 are lowskill, low wage jobs. A white collar no collar polarization of the labor market
41 Long Term Trends Value added added Economic Activity Relative value added State Rankings
42 Value Added Economic Activity (real GDP per Worker) $70,000 NE $65,000 US $60,000 $55,000 $50,000 ME $45,000 $40, Data: Bureau of Economic Analysis
43 Value Added Economic Activity (real GDP per Worker) $60,000 $58,000 Portland South Portland Biddeford $56,000 $54,000 $52,000 $50,000 $48,000 $46,000 Bangor Lewiston Auburn $44,000 $42,000 $40, Data: Bureau of Economic Analysis
44 Relative Value Added (real GDP per worker compared to national average) New England States CT MA National Average RI NH VT ME Data: Bureau of Economic Analysis
45 2007 Value Added Economic Activity (real GDP per Worker) District of Columbia Delaware New York Connecticut New Jersey Massachusetts California Illinois Alaska Virginia Washington Texas Maryland United States Nevada Oregon Rhode Island Colorado Arizona Minnesota Michigan North Carolina Pennsylvania Georgia New Hampshire Florida Hawaii Ohio Indiana Louisiana Tennessee New Mexico Wisconsin Iowa Wyoming South Dakota Nebraska Missouri Kansas Kentucky Alabama Utah Vermont West Virginia Arkansas South Carolina North Dakota Oklahoma Idaho Maine Mississippi Montana $47,964, 48th (excludes District of Columbia) $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 $100,000 Data: US Dept. of Labor
46 140 Relative Value Added (real GDP per worker compared to national average) Maine and Local Areas National Average Portland South Portland Biddeford ME Bangor Lewiston Auburn Data: Bureau of Economic Analysis
47 State Rankings Maine Personal Income Per Capita 33 rd 34 th 31 st Gross Domestic Product 44 th 44 th 44 th Value Added Activity 47 th 47 th 48 th Half of income increase is transfer payments! Data: Bureau of Economic Analysis
48 In summary The economy may be at a turning point: Declines in retail sales are stabilizing Unemployment rates are falling Foreclosures are recovering Economic projections see an up tick.
49 In summary BUT: Underlying d l i assumptions depend d on second federal stimulus package Employment, GDP, and value-added activities are still lagging Employment will be very slow to recover
50 Outline 1. External Economic Drivers 2. Current tconditions 3. Economic Projections 4. Long term Trends 5. How can Maine jump start its economy?
51 How Can Maine Jump start its Economy? Previous suggestion: Generate more high VALUE ADDED ADDED economic activities
52 Examples of High Value Added Precision manufacturing not just welding Coated publication i papers not just pulpwood Eco tourism not just lodging Building materials not just logs Furniture not just stump wood Composites not just lumber Financial services not just banking Telecommunications not just phone lines Yachts not just boats Yogurt not just milk Vodka not just potatoes
53 How Can Maine Jump start its Economy? Two new suggestions: 1. Generate more high VALUE ADDED economic activities for export 2. Leverage our offshore wind generated electric power
54 Maine and Bangor have a long history of exports Ice Granite Lumber Ships Textiles Shoes Paper
55 Merchandise Exports - New England State Q Percent Change ($ in millions) from Previous Year Connecticut $3, Maine $ Massachusetts $5, New Hampshire $ Rhode Island $ Vermont $ Data: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
56 We need to renew our focus on exports We need to aim towards: China 8% growth in GDP India fast growing middle class Other emerging economies
57 Offshore wind generated electricity What will we do with this new resource Use it to heat Maine s homes? Sell it to the highest bidder? Create new interrelated green industrial clusters?
58 Interrelated green industrial clusters Windmill Heat Pump Greenhouse Each high value added
59 Also Seek, attract, and expand industries that are electricity intensive
60 180,000,000 Electricity Usage in Major Manufacturing Sectors, ,000, ,945, ,000, ,266, ,000, ,000,000 80,000,000 60,000,000 40,000,000 70,693,203 61,345,118 53,287,763 52,853,541 44,590,590 38,995,501 28,518,819 26,683,846 23,333,569 20,000, ,719,262 6,337,820 5,141,594 Source: AeA, Annual Survey of Manufacturers
61 Chemicals Electricity Intensive Industries Pharmaceuticals Fertilizers Pi Primary Metals/Other Aluminum Clay Paper Manufacturing Refined paper Food Greenhouse agriculture High Tech Cement Data Centers
62 Presentation available at:
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