Recent Trends in Regional Employment Jason Bram and James Orr

Transcription

1 Recent Trends in Regional Employment Jason Bram and James Orr May 6, 2011 The views expressed here are those of the presenters and do not necessarily represent the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.

2 Overview General Economic Trends in the Region Employment Trends in the Region Downturn: New York job losses less severe than the nation; New Jersey losses on par with U.S.; Puerto Rico particularly hard hit. Upturn: Employment across most of the region has begun to rebound, to varying degrees, despite substantial job losses in state and local government. Outlook: Employment growth in the region will hinge on continued job creation in the private-services sector. 1

3 Regional Economic Activity Index of Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI) 104 Index (December 2007 = 100) 102 Nov05 Apr08 Apr Jan08 98 Mar New York City Nov09 New Jersey New York State Puerto Rico 88 Nov09 Shading indicates NBER recession Feb 86 Jan07 Jul07 Jan08 Jul08 Jan09 Jul09 Jan10 Jul10 Jan11 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Puerto Rico Government Development Bank Note: The Puerto Rico composite index is based on a different methodology than the indexes produced by the FRBNY. 2

4 Unemployment Rate Long-Term Trends 12% Percent 11% 10% New York City 9% 8% 9.3% Mar 8.8% 8.7% 8.0% 7% New York State t 6% 5% United States 4% Shading indicates New Jersey NBER recessions 3% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody s Economy.com 3

5 Unemployment Rate Long-Term Trends 18% Percent 16.9% 15% 12% Puerto Rico 9% Mar 8.8% United States 6% 3% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody s Economy.com 4

6 Total Employment Seasonally Adjusted Index 102 Index (December 2007 = 100) U.S. Employment Trough 100 Downturn Upturn New York City New York State U.S. Upstate NY New Jersey Puerto Rico Mar Shading indicates NBER recession Feb10 88 Jan07 Jul07 Jan08 Jul08 Jan09 Jul09 Jan10 Jul10 Jan11 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody s Economy.com 5

7 Last Three Downturns: New York City Total Employment Indexed to Local Employment Peaks 102 Index (Start of Downturn = 100) New York City Recent Downturn 96 Early 2000 s Downturn 94 Early 1990s Downturn 92 Start of Downturn One Year From Start Two Years From Start Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody s Economy.com and FRBNY calculations 6

8 Last Three Downturns: New York State Total Employment Indexed to Local Employment Peaks 102 Index (Start of Downturn = 100) New York State Recent Downturn 96 Early 2000 s Downturn 94 Early 1990s Downturn 92 Start of Downturn One Year From Start Two Years From Start Three Years From Start Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody s Economy.com and FRBNY calculations 7

9 Last Three Downturns: New Jersey Total Employment Indexed to Local Employment Peaks 102 Index (Start of Downturn = 100) New Jersey Early 2000 s Downturn 96 Recent Downturn 94 Early 1990s Downturn 92 Start of Downturn One Year From Start Two Years From Start Three Years From Start Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody s Economy.com and FRBNY calculations 8

10 Total Employment Seasonally Adjusted Index Index (December 2007 = 100) Dashed Line Indicates U.S. Employment Trough (February 2010) North Dakota Texas New York State United States New Jersey Florida Mar 88 Shading indicates NBER recession Nevada 84 Jan07 Jul07 Jan08 Jul08 Jan09 Jul09 Jan10 Jul10 Jan11 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody s Economy.com 9

11 Employment Change in the Downturn Percent Change December 2007 to February % -23.4% United States New York State New Jersey -16.6% -15.7% -15.5% -14.3% Educational & Health Services 4.5% -6.9% -9.2% -7.9% -7.7% -8.4% -6.7% -7.2% -5.3% Government -4.5% -4.2% -3.5% -0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 2.9% 4.7% Leisure & Hospitality 1.8% Financial Activities Retail Trade Professional & Business Services Manufacturing Construction Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody s Economy.com 10

12 Employment Change in the Downturn Percent Change December 2007 to February 2010 United States New York City Educational & Health Services 4.5% 5.1% Government 0.4% 0.1% -4.5% Leisure & Hospitality 3.5% -9.4% -6.9% Financial Activities -7.7% -0.1% Retail Trade -8.4% -5.2% Professional & Business Services -21.8% -16.6% Manufacturing -24.6% -13.6% Construction Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody s Economy.com 11

13 Employment Change in the Downturn Percent Change December 2007 to February 2010 United States Upstate NY Educational & Health Services 4.5% 4.3% Government 0.4% 0.9% -4.5% Leisure & Hospitality 1.9% -6.9% -7.6% -7.7% -8.4% -4.8% -4.2% Financial Activities Retail Trade Professional & Business Services -16.6% -15.1% Manufacturing -24.6% -8.8% Construction Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody s Economy.com 12

14 Employment Change During the Downturn December 2007 to February 2010 Percent Change Buffalo Rochester Ithaca Syracuse Utica Glens Falls Albany United States = -6.3% Region = -3.9% Down 6% or More Down 5% to 6% Down 4% to 5% Down 3% to 4% Less Than 3% Down Elmira Binghamton Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody s Economy.com Note: Putnam and Bergen are the Putnam-Rockland-Westchester and Bergen-Hudson-Passaic Special BLS Areas. Kingston Putnam Fairfield Newark Edison NYC Puerto Rico 13

15 Upturn

16 Sectoral Job Changes: New York State December 2007 to February 2010 / February 2010 to March Thousands New York State Education & Health Financial Activities Manufacturing Trade Construction ti Professional & Business Services Government Information Transport & Utilities Dec07 to Feb10 Feb10 to Mar11 State & Local Leisure & Hospitality (-271,000 Total) (+74,000 Total) 42.0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody s Economy.com 15

17 Sectoral Job Changes: Upstate NY December 2007 to February 2010 / February 2010 to March Thousands Upstate NY Education & Health Leisure & Hospitality Government Information -9.0 Transport Construction & Utilities Financial Professional Activities & Business Services Trade Manufacturing Dec07 to Feb10 Feb10 to Mar11 (-66,000 Total) (+3,000 Total) -40 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody s Economy.com 16

18 Sectoral Job Changes: New York City December 2007 to February 2010 / February 2010 to March Thousands New York City Education & Health Securities Securities Financial Activities Construction Manufacturing Leisure & Hospitality Government State -6.3 & Information Transport Local & Utilities Trade Professional & Business Dec07 to Feb10 (-91,000 Total) Services Feb10 to Mar11 (+50,000 Total) 21.5 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody s Economy.com 17

19 Sectoral Job Changes: New Jersey December 2007 to February 2010 / February 2010 to March Thousands 16.4 New Jersey Education & Health Government Transport & Utilities Financial Activities Leisure & Hospitality Information State & Local Manufacturing Trade Construction Professional Dec07 to Feb10 (-244,000 Total) & Business Services Feb10 to Mar11 (+4,000 Total) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody s Economy.com 18

20 Employment Change During the Upturn February 2010 to March 2011 Percent Change Buffalo Rochester Ithaca Syracuse Utica Glens Falls Albany United States = +1.2% Region = +0.7% Down 0.5% or More Down 0.0% to 0.5% Up 0.0% to 0.5% Up 0.5% to 1.0% Up 1.0% or More Elmira Binghamton Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody s Economy.com Note: Putnam and Bergen are the Putnam-Rockland-Westchester and Bergen-Hudson-Passaic Special BLS Areas. Kingston Putnam Fairfield Newark Edison NYC Puerto Rico 19

21 State and Local Government Seasonally Adjusted Index 102 Index (December 2007 = 100) 101 New York State United States New Jersey Mar Shading indicates NBER recession Note: Dotted line smoothes fluctuations due to summer jobs programs. Jan07 Jul07 Jan08 Jul08 Jan09 Jul09 Jan10 Jul10 Jan11 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody s Economy.com 20

22 New York City Securities Employment Seasonally Adjusted Levels Thousands Thousands 240 4,000 Total Employment Shading indicates time Minus Securities between securities and 210 (right axis) 3,750 total employment troughs 180 Mar 3, ,250 Securities Employment (left axis) 120 3, , , Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody s Economy.com and FRBNY calculations 21

23 New York City Securities Employment Seasonally Adjusted Levels Thousands Thousands 240 4,000 Total Employment Shading indicates time Minus Securities between securities and 210 (right axis) 3,750 total employment troughs 180 3,580 Main Street Turns Up BEFORE Wall Street 150 3,250 Securities 3, Employment (left axis) 120 3, , Mar 3, ,750 3, , , Jun Sep09 Dec Mar Jun10 Sep Dec Mar Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody s Economy.com and FRBNY calculations 22

24 Increase in Online Job Listings and Occupations Driving the Gains 2010Q1-2011Q1 United States New York State New Jersey Up 18.0% Up 20.0% Up 8.2% Computer Management Computer Healthcare Practitioners Computer Management Transportation Business and Financial Transportation Management Healthcare Practitioners Healthcare Practitioners Retail and Other Sales Retail and Other Sales Food Preparation Source: The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine Data Series 23

25 Summary There has been substantial regional variation in the downturn Recovery of jobs to date Strength in most private services Modest losses in Manufacturing and Construction Mounting losses in State & Local Government Outlook Health & Education, Leisure & Hospitality, Professional & Business Services, and Financial Activities are likely to continue to contribute to growth going forward A pickup in online job listings in the region over the past year has been driven largely, but not entirely, by higher-skill occupations Downside risks from state and local government fiscal restraint 24

26 Question & Answer

27 Appendix

28 Total Employment Seasonally Adjusted Index 102 Index (December 2007 = 100) U.S. Employment Trough Downturn Upturn Ithaca Buffalo Albany Rochester Syracuse Binghamton Mar 94 United States Shading indicates NBER recession Feb10 92 Jan07 Jul07 Jan08 Jul08 Jan09 Jul09 Jan10 Jul10 Jan11 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody s Economy.com 27

29 Total Employment Seasonally Adjusted Index 102 Index (December 2007 = 100) U.S. Employment Trough Downturn Upturn Bergen Hudson Passaic Edison Mar 94 United States Shading indicates NBER recession Feb10 Newark 92 Jan07 Jul07 Jan08 Jul08 Jan09 Jul09 Jan10 Jul10 Jan11 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody s Economy.com 28

30 Total Employment Seasonally Adjusted Index 102 Index (December 2007 = 100) U.S. Employment Trough Downturn Upturn 100 New York City 98 Long Island 96 Lower Hudson Mar 94 Fairfield United States Shading indicates NBER recession Feb10 92 Jan07 Jul07 Jan08 Jul08 Jan09 Jul09 Jan10 Jul10 Jan11 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody s Economy.com 29

31 Online Job Listings by Occupation Contribution to Net Increase in Listings 2010Q1-2011Q1 45% Contribution Rate (Percent) 40% 35% 30% 25% 42 United States t New York State New Jersey 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% 10 5 Transport Production Math Management Finance Sciences Healthcare Legal Arts Computer Business Education Media % Source: The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine Data Series 30

32 Employment Change Since the Downturn Percent Change December 2007 to March 2011 United States Puerto Rico Educational & Health Services -0.9% -12.0% -2.8% -4.4% -5.4% -7.0% -5.3% -7.5% -4.4% 4% -15.1% -18.5% 7.1% 53% 5.3% Government Leisure & Hospitality Prof. & Business 0.8% Retail Trade Financial Activities Manufacturing -53.3% -23.8% Construction Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody s Economy.com 31

33 Sectoral Job Changes: Puerto Rico December 2007 to February 2010 / February 2010 to March Thousands Trade Puerto Rico Leisure & Financial -5.0 Information Transport Hospitality Activities & Utilities Professional & Business Services Education & Health Manufacturing Construction Government Dec07 to Feb10 Feb10 to Mar11 (-81,000 Total) (+18,000 Total) -30 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody s Economy.com 32

34 Education and Health Seasonally Adjusted Index 110 Index (December 2007 = 100) 105 Mar New York City Upstate NY New York State New Jersey United States Puerto Rico 80 Shading indicates NBER recession Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody s Economy.com 33

35 Professional and Business Services Seasonally Adjusted Index 104 Index (December 2007 = 100) Puerto Rico Upstate NY New York State New York City Mar 92 New Jersey United States Shading indicates 90 NBER recession Jan07 Jul07 Jan08 Jul08 Jan09 Jul09 Jan10 Jul10 Jan11 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody s Economy.com 34

36 Financial Activities Employment Seasonally Adjusted Index 106 Index (December 2007 = 100) Puerto Rico Upstate NY United States 92 New Jersey Shading indicates New York State NBER recession New York City 90 Jan07 Jul07 Jan08 Jul08 Jan09 Jul09 Jan10 Jul10 Jan11 Mar Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody s Economy.com 35

37 Construction Employment Seasonally Adjusted Index 115 Index (December 2007 = 100) Upstate NY New York City New York State New Jersey United States Puerto Rico Mar 55 Shading indicates 45 NBER recession Jan07 Jul07 Jan08 Jul08 Jan09 Jul09 Jan10 Jul10 Jan11 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody s Economy.com Note: Construction category also includes Natural Resources and Mining. 36

38 Manufacturing Employment Seasonally Adjusted Index 110 Index (December 2007 = 100) New York State New Jersey Upstate NY Mar 80 United States New York City Puerto Rico Shading indicates 75 NBER recession Jan07 Jul07 Jan08 Jul08 Jan09 Jul09 Jan10 Jul10 Jan11 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody s Economy.com 37

39 Percent 16% Elmira 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 14.9% Manufacturing Share of Total Employment, Binghamton 13.2% Rochester Glens Falls 11.8% 11.7% Buffalo Utica Syracuse 9.2% 8.6% 8.5% 4% 4.8% 46% 4.6% New York 2% City 2.0% 0% Puerto Rico U.S. Level 8.9% Fairfield 8.9% 9.3% New Jersey Ithaca Albany 6.7% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody s Economy.com 38

40 Manufacturing February 2010 to March 2011 Percent Change 8% Percent 6% 4% Glens Elmira Falls 5.9% 5.7% Ithaca 40% 4.0% 2% U.S. U.S. Level 1.8% 0% -2% -4% -6% -0.3% Buffalo -1.8% Albany -2.6% -2.8% -3.1% 31% Binghamton Rochester -4.4% Utica Syracuse -1.3% Fairfield -2.8% -3.1% 31% New -3.6% Jersey New York Puerto City Rico Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody s Economy.com 39

41 Employment Change in the Upturn Percent Change February 2010 to March 2011 United States New York State Professional & Business Services 3.2% 31% 3.1% Educational & Health Services 2.5% 2.5% Manufacturing 1.8% -1.4% 14% Leisure & Hospitality 1.7% 3.1% Wholesale Trade 1.4% 2.0% Construction 1.1% -3.7% Retail Trade 0.7% 0.2% -0.6% Financial Activities 1.4% -1.4% Government -2.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody s Economy.com 40

42 Employment Change in the Upturn Percent Change February 2010 to March 2011 United States New Jersey Professional & Business Services 3.2% 2.8% Educational & Health Services 2.5% 1.1% Manufacturing 1.8% -2.8% 28% Leisure & Hospitality 1.7% 1.6% Wholesale Trade 1.4% 0.0% Construction 1.1% -2.6% Retail Trade 0.7% 0.9% -0.6% Financial Activities 1.6% -1.4% Government -3.4% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody s Economy.com 41

43 Employment Change in the Upturn Percent Change February 2010 to March 2011 United States Upstate Metros Professional & Business Services 3.2% 31% 3.1% Educational & Health Services 2.5% 1.9% Manufacturing 1.8% -1.7% 17% Leisure & Hospitality 1.7% 1.6% Wholesale Trade 1.4% 1.0% Construction 1.1% 0.7% Retail Trade 0.7% 0.3% -0.6% Financial Activities -0.7% -1.4% Government -3.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody s Economy.com 42

44 Unemployment February 2010 and March % Bergen New York Hudson City Passaic 10% US U.S. Binghamton Fairfield Newark Syracuse Lower Edison 9.5% 9% Buffalo 9.2% 8.8% Rochester Hudson Long 8.5% 8.7% 8.5% 8% 8.1% 8.2% Island Albany 78% 7.6% 7.8% 7% 7.1% 7.2% 7.2% Ithaca 6% 5.8% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% February 2010 March % Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody s Economy.com 43