Changes in the Workforce of Upstate New York State of Upstate New York Conference, Syracuse, NY

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1 Changes in the Workforce of Upstate New York State of Upstate New York Conference, Syracuse, NY June 9, 2011 The views expressed here are those of the presenter and do not necessarily represent the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.

2 Outline Show changes in upstate s industry structure over past three decades Examine changes in the types of jobs upstate workers perform Highlight the importance of colleges and universities in building human capital for the region FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK 1

3 Little Long-Term Employment Growth in Upstate New York Index of Total Annual Employment 160 Index (1980 = 100) United States Upstate New York FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and Moody s Economy.com 2

4 Employment Growth Within Upstate Albany 40% Rochester 25% Syracuse 23% Utica 12% Buffalo 10% Binghamton 5% U.S. 52% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and Moody s Economy.com 3

5 Employment Trends: Industry Structure The Export Economy: economic drivers that bring in revenue from outside the region Goods Production and Distribution Producer Services Consumer Services The Local Sector: goods and services for local consumption Local Goods Public Administration FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK 4

6 Growth in Service Industry Offsetting Decline in Goods Total Employment by Category in Upstate New York, ,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 Producer & Consumer Services 800,000 Goods Production & Distribution 600, , , FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and Author s Calculations 5

7 Net Change in Jobs by Decade for Upstate New York By Industry Group 200, , ,000 50,000 0 Goods Production & Distribution Producer Services Consumer Services Local Goods Public Administration - 50, , s 1990s 2000s - 150,000 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and Author s Calculations 6

8 Industry Composition Upstate New York and United States, % 90% 80% 70% 14% 12% Public Administration 6% 5% 6% 5% Public Administration Consumer Services 35% 29% Education Services Health Care Personal & Social Services 11% 11% 8% 60% 50% 8% 18% Local Goods Retail Trade Construction 24% 25% 18% 7% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1% 1% 6% 8% 6% 4% 2% 2% 11% Upstate New York Producer Services Professional & Business Services 15% 19% 20% Finance, Insurance & Real Estate Communications Goods Production & Distribution Utilities Transportation Wholesale Trade Agriculture & Mining Manufacturing 22% 10% 7% 4% 3% 3% 11% U.S. 2% 1% FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and Author s Calculations 7

9 Upstate Economy is Becoming More Stable Employment Trends over Past Three Cycles Index (Onset of Recession = 100) Note: Shading indicates NBER recession United States Upstate Mar90 Sep90 Mar91 Sep91 Mar92 Sep92 Mar93 Sep93 United States Upstate Nov00 May01 Nov01 May02 Nov02 May03 Nov03 May04 Upstate United States Recession 2001 Recession Aug07 Feb08 Aug08 Feb09 Aug09 Feb10 Aug10 Feb11 Mar94 Nov Recession Apr May Aug11 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody s Economy.com 8

10 Employment Trends: Occupation Structure Industry structure reveals information what an economy produces Occupation structure gives information about the type of work that people do Within an industry, occupations change considerably over time For example, the manufacturing industry has fewer line workers and more managers than in the past FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK 9

11 Skill Classes by Occupation Group Based on Median Wage in the U.S. $80,000 $70,000 High Legal Computer/Math Engineers/Architects Management Mid- High Social Scientists Scientists Finance Business Operation Health Practitioners $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 Mid Installation & Repair Protective Services Teachers & Librarians Arts & Entertainment Construction Precision Production Community Services Mid- Low Administrative Machine Operators Sales Transportation $30,000 $20,000 Low Bldg Maintenance Health Support Farming Personal Care Food Prep $10,000 $0 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and Author s Calculations 10

12 Net Change in Jobs by Skill Group for Upstate New York 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s 90,000 75, s 1990s 2000s 60,000 45,000 30,000 15,000 0 High Mid-High Mid Mid-Low Low - 15,000-30,000 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and Author s Calculations 11

13 Distribution of Jobs by Wage Group Upstate New York 100% 90% 80% 7% High Wages 12% 14% Mid-High Wages 10% 70% 22% Mid Wages 60% 23% 50% 40% 30% 46% Mid-Low Wages 36% 20% 10% 0% Low Wages 13% 17% FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and Author s Calculations 12

14 Median Wage by Decade and by Occupation United States $70,000 Legal Computer/Math $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 Legal Computer/Math Scientists Finance Teachers & Librarians Health Practitioners Legal Computer/Math Scientists Finance Health Practitioners Teachers & Librarians Sales Computer/Math Legal Scientists Finance Health Practitioners Teachers & Librarians Sales Scientists Finance Health Practitioners Teachers & Librarians Sales $20,000 $10,000 Sales Health Support Food Prep Health Support Food Prep Health Support Food Prep Health Support Food Prep $ FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and Author s Calculations 13

15 Median Wage by Decade and by Occupation United States $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 Engineers/Architects Legal Computer/Math Management Legal Computer/Math Engineers/Architects Management Computer/Math Engineers/Architects Management Legal Legal Computer/Math Engineers/Architects Management $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $ FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and Author s Calculations 14

16 Median Wage by Decade and by Occupation United States $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 Building Maintenance Health Support Personal Care Food Prep Building Maintenance Building Maintenance Building Maintenance Health Support Health Support Health Support Personal Care Personal Care Personal Care Food Prep Food Prep Food Prep $ FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and Author s Calculations 15

17 Median Wage by Decade and by Occupation United States $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 Precision Production Precision Production Precision Production Precision Production $30,000 Machine Operators Machine Operators Machine Operators Machine Operators $20,000 $10,000 $ FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and Author s Calculations 16

18 The Importance of Human Capital Continuing to shift to a knowledge economy: jobs increasingly require more skills and knowledge Building human capital through a college degree is more important than ever before All workers benefit from being around others with higher human capital FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK 17

19 Higher Levels of Human Capital Associated With Greater Wealth Per Capita Personal Income and Population With College Degree $90,000 Per Capita Personal Income $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 New York City Boston Boulder CO $40,000 $30,000 Albany Rochester $20,000 El Centro CA Syracuse Buffalo $10,000 Note: The BEA and Census data Percent of Population over 25 with a College Degree are both for the 2007 year. $ FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of the Census and Moody s Economy.com 18

20 High and Low Human Capital Occupations Percent With Bachelor s in 2009 High Human Capital Occupations Low Human Capital Occupations Social Scientists 91% Scientists 84% Legal 77% Teachers & Librarians 77% Finance 72% Community Services 66% Computer/Math 65% Engineers/Architects 63% Arts & Entertainment 57% Health Practitioners 56% Business Operation 56% Management 55% Sales 26% Protective Services 21% Administrative 18% Personal Care 13% Precision Production 11% Farming 9% Health Support 8% Food Prep 7% Installation & Repair 7% Transportation 6% Construction 6% Machine Operators 6% Building Maintenance 5% FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and Author s Calculations 19

21 Share of Jobs in High Human Capital Occupations United States and Upstate New York 40% 35% United States 30% Upstate New York 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and Author s Calculations 20

22 How to Increase a Region s Human Capital? Higher Education Industry Can Help 1. Producing local graduates: increasing the supply of human capital Educates the local population Draws students into the region, some of whom may stay after graduation Limited ability to keep local graduates not tied to the region 2. Conducting research: raising the demand for human capital Skills, knowledge, and technology developed at academic institutions used by local firms, increasing high human capital economic activities Benefits for local businesses tied to the region FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK 21

23 Conclusions The upstate economy s industry mix has become more diversified, and as a result, more stable There has been a shift toward higher skilled and higher human capital jobs The higher education industry has a key role to play in raising skills of local workers, and in helping local businesses raise the demand for human capital FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK 22