Economic Conditions in New York State

Transcription

1 Economic Conditions in New York State Jaison R. Abel, Assistant Vice President IBANYS Banking Executive Symposium Watkins Glen, NY; May 8, 218 The views expressed here are those of the presenter and do not necessarily represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.

2 Overview of Regional Conditions Business activity picked up noticeably in early 218, particularly in the manufacturing sector, though growth has slowed more recently. Job growth has been strongest in New York City, more moderate in Western New York and the Capital region, and slower in most other parts of the state. Businesses in the region report that both input and selling price increases have become more widespread. Housing markets have generally continued to strengthen; however, a backlog of foreclosures remains elevated in the region. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK 1

3 US Macro Overview

4 Economic Activity Annual Percent Change in Real GDP 6 Four-Quarter Percent Change 4 2 Q1-218 Advance Estimate Q Shading indicates NBER recession Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics. 3

5 Labor Market Conditions Unemployment, Participation, and Working Population 12 Percent Percent Labor Force Participation Rate (Right Axis) 64 6 Unemployment Rate (Left Axis) 62 4 Employment to Population Ratio (Right Axis) Mar Shading indicates NBER recession Source: U.S. Bureau Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics. 4

6 Inflation Measures Annual Percent Change in PCE Price Indexes 5 Twelve-Month Percent Change 4 3 Total PCE 2 FOMC Objective Mar 1 Core PCE -1 Shading indicates NBER recession Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics. 5

7 Housing Conditions Home Price Trends and Inventory 125 Index (U.S. Peak of March 26 = 1) Month s Supply 15 1 Single-Family House Price Index (left axis) Feb Six-Month Supply 6 25 Month s Supply (right axis) Mar 3 Shading indicates NBER recession Source: CoreLogic, National Association of Realtors via Haver Analytics. 6

8 Regional Economic Conditions

9 Current Economic Conditions FRBNY Regional Business Surveys 4 Diffusion Index 2 Empire State Manufacturing Survey Apr -2 Business Leaders Survey (Service Sector) -4 Shading indicates NBER recession Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 8

10 Current Business Climate FRBNY Business Leaders Survey 25 Diffusion Index Apr Business Leaders Survey (Current Climate) -75 Shading indicates NBER recession Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 9

11 Regional Consumer Confidence Overall Consumer Confidence 15 Index Value Mar 9 Downstate NY United States 75 6 Upstate NY Shading indicates NBER recession Source: Sienna Research Institute, University of Michigan. 1

12 Regional Employment Trends Indexes of Total Employment, Seasonally Adjusted 115 Index (December 27 = 1) Dashed Line Indicates U.S. Employment Trough (February 21) +1.5% 11 Q1 YOY % Change +1.5% 15 Downstate NY Mar +.8% 1 95 United States Upstate NY Shading indicates NBER recession Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody s Economy.com. 11

13 Sectors Driving Recent Job Growth Q1 YOY Change in Employment 12 9 Thousands Education & Health Upstate NY Prof & Business Leisure & Hospitality Manufacturing Construct Financial Activities Transport & Utilities Trade Info Gov Education & Health Downstate NY 28 Prof & Business Construct Trade Financial Activities Leisure & Hospitality Transport & Utilities Gov Info Manufacturing Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody s Economy.com. 12

14 Dutchess- Putnam Recent Job Growth in New York State Q1 218 YOY Percent Change Watertown Glens Falls Buffalo Rochester Syracuse Utica Albany Ithaca Elmira Binghamton Strong Growth Moderate Growth Modest Growth Little or No Growth Decline Kingston NYC Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody s Economy.com. 13

15 Input and Selling Prices FRBNY Regional Business Surveys 6 Diffusion Index Apr 45 BLS Prices Paid 3 ESMS Prices Paid 15 ESMS Prices Received BLS Prices Received Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 14

16 Regional Home Price Trends Home Price Index, Seasonally Adjusted 13 Index (U.S. Peak of March 26 = 1) Dec % Upstate NY Percent Change Dec11-Feb18 +27% +5% 85 Downstate NY 7 United States Shading indicates NBER recession Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index (including distressed sales); aggregation and seasonal adjustment by FRBNY staff. 15

17 Local Home Price Growth Percent Change, Dec 211 to Feb 218 Percent 6 5 United States New York City Downstate NY Long Island Orange- Rockland- Westchester Kingston Dutchess- Putnam Buffalo Glens Falls Utica Ithaca Rochester Syracuse Upstate NY Albany Elmira Binghamton Watertown Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index (including distressed sales); aggregation and seasonal adjustment by FRBNY staff. 16

18 Percent 8 Negative Equity Share of Mortgages with Amount Owed > Home Value 211Q4 217Q4 6 65% 4 47% 51% 32% 2 25% United States 8% 5% 5% New York 8% 9% 7% 3% Nevada California Florida Arizona Source: CoreLogic Negative Equity Report. 17

19 Backlog of Foreclosures Share of Mortgages in Foreclosure 8 Percent Downstate NY 6 Upstate NY 4 United States 2 Jan Shading indicates NBER recession Source: CoreLogic LoanPerformance (LP) and Lender Processing Services Mortgage Performance data (LPS). 18

20 Looking Ahead

21 State Leading Economic Indexes Six-Month Forecast of State Growth, Feb 218 NY 1.9% U.S. = 1.6 Strong Growth Moderate Growth Modest Growth Little or No Growth Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 2

22 Future Economic Conditions FRBNY Regional Business Surveys, Conditions Six Months Ahead 6 Diffusion Index 4 2 Business Leaders Survey (Future Activity) Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Future Conditions) Apr -2-4 Shading indicates NBER recession Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 21

23 Economic Conditions in New York State Jaison R. Abel, Assistant Vice President IBANYS Banking Executive Symposium Watkins Glen, NY; May 8, 218 The views expressed here are those of the presenter and do not necessarily represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.