Data Digest: Georgia. October 2012

Transcription

1 Data Digest: Georgia October 2012

2 Georgia s economic performance has improved steadily since December The state s coincident economic indicator for August is at its highest level since December About the Coincident Economic Indicator Jan 2001 = Coincident Economic Indicator United States Georgia Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia 2

3 Georgia s employment has slowly improved since the end of the recession. Thousands, seasonally adjusted 4,300 Georgia Payroll Employment 4,100 3,900 3,700 3,500 3,300 3,100 2,900 2,700 2, Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics 3

4 The construction and manufacturing industries were especially hard hit during the downturn, and construction continues to shed jobs. Business services has bounced back and employment in that sector now exceeds its prerecession level. Local government Employment Loss and Gain by Industry: Georgia State government -9.9 Federal government -4.4 Other services -6.8 Leisure & hospitality Percent change peak to trough -7.7 Education & healthcare Percent change trough to present Business services Financial services Information Transport/Warehousing/Utilities -7.8 Retail trade Wholesale trade Manufacturing Construction Total Note: A reading of 0.0 in the trough to present measure indicates that employment continues to decline in these industries. Likewise, a reading of 0.0 in the peak to trough measure indicates that employment continues to increase in these industries; in this instance "trough to present" is the percent change from January 2007 to present. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 4

5 Led by business services and retail trade, many of the sectors experienced expanding or improving momentum in August. State government and construction contracted. About Employment Momentum 8 Improving Employment Momentum by Sector: Georgia Expanding 6 Other services Information Retail trade 3-month average annualized percent change Local government Federal government Leisure and hospitality Financial services State government Construction Manufacturing Transportation/ Warehouse/ Utilities Wholesale trade Business services Education and health care Contracting Slipping Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 5

6 Job losses in many of Georgia s metropolitan areas were quite severe during the downturn, and only Gainesville has regained the jobs it lost. Warner Robins Valdosta Savannah Rome Macon Gainesville Dalton Columbus Brunswick Augusta Atlanta Athens Albany Georgia Employment Loss and Gain by Metro Area: Georgia Percent change peak to trough Percent change trough to present Note: A reading of 0.0 in the trough to present measure indicates that employment continues to decline in these metro areas. Likewise, a reading of 0.0 in the peak to trough measure indicates that employment continues to increase in these metro areas; in this instance "trough to present" is the percent change from January 2007 to present Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

7 Employment momentum in Atlanta and several other metro areas was in the expanding quadrant in August. Momentum in Augusta, Dalton, and Warner Robins contracted while Valdosta and Brunswick were in the slipping quadrant. About Employment Momentum 15 Improving Employment Momentum Metro Area: Georgia Expanding 3-month average annualized percent change Dalton Rome Brunswick Augusta Columbus Warner Robins Albany Atlanta Savannah Athens Macon Valdosta Gainesville -15 Contracting Slipping Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 7

8 Since August 2010, Georgia s employment momentum has remained in the expanding quadrant each month except for September 2011, when it slipped slightly. About Employment Momentum Track 4 Improving Employment Momentum Track January 2007 Expanding 3-month average percent change, annualized Contracting Slipping Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 8

9 Georgia s unemployment rate remains higher than the overall U.S. average. Rates in each of the state s metro areas declined from July. Percent of labor force 11 Unemployment Rates Georgia United States Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics 9

10 Initial claims for unemployment insurance have increased over the last month. 4-week moving average 25,000 Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims: Georgia through September 15, ,000 21,000 19,000 17,000 15,000 13,000 11,000 9,000 7,000 5, Source: U.S Department of Labor Employment and Training Administration, Haver Analytics 10

11 Sales tax revenues are up slightly over August Year-over-year percent change, 3-month average 20 Georgia Sales Tax Revenue Source: Georgia Department of Revenue, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 11

12 Regional manufacturing activity accelerated in August, according to the Southeast Purchasing Managers Index produced by Kennesaw State University. Georgia s component measured 50.4, slightly higher than the regional measure of Southeast Purchasing Managers Index The Georgia component of the SE PMI was 50.4 in Note: 50+ = Expansion Source: Kennesaw State University, Coles College of Business Econometrics Center 12

13 The number of new home construction permits issued in Georgia and the nation declined during August. 200,000 New Residential Home Construction Permits 10, ,000 9, ,000 8, ,000 7, ,000 6, ,000 5,000 80,000 4,000 60,000 40,000 United States (left scale) Georgia (right scale) 3,000 2,000 20,000 1, Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Haver Analytics 13

14 Home prices in Georgia declined substantially over the past five years. After stabilizing somewhat in 2009 and early 2010, prices fell through much of 2011 and early Home prices in metro Atlanta increased for the fourth consecutive month in July, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller measure. Jan 2000 = S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index through July Atlanta Composite Source: S&P, Haver Analytics Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 14

15 Office vacancy rates rose throughout the recession but have stabilized recently at higher levels. Percent 24 Office Vacancy Rate Q United States Atlanta Source: CB Richard Ellis, Haver Analytics 15

16 Industrial availability rates remain elevated in Atlanta. Percent 22 Industrial Availability Rate Q United States Atlanta Source: CB Richard Ellis, Haver Analytics 16

17 For additional sources of information, see our Local Economic Analysis Research Network membership at 17