Economic Forecast January 2019
|
|
|
- Rosalind Sims
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Economic Forecast 2019 January 2019
2 ON THE ECONOMIC, BUSINESS AND POLITICAL CLIMATE Roger Tutterow, Ph.D. Coles College of Business Kennesaw State University
3 Contributions To GDP Growth (Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis) GDP = Consumption Gross Investment Net Exports Government 2017: Q1 1.80% 1.22% 0.80% -0.10% -0.13% 2017: Q2 3.00% 1.95% 0.95% 0.08% 0.01% 2017: Q3 2.80% 1.52% 1.47% 0.01% -0.18% 2017: Q4 2.30% 2.64% 0.14% -0.89% 0.41% 2018: Q1 2.20% 0.36% 1.61% -0.02% 0.27% 2018: Q2 4.20% 2.57% -0.07% 1.22% 0.43% 2018: Q3 3.40% 2.37% 2.53% -1.99% 0.44% Gross Investment = Nonresidential Residential Inventory 2017: Q1 0.80% 1.20% 0.41% -0.80% 2017: Q2 0.95% 0.94% -0.22% 0.23% 2017: Q3 1.47% 0.45% -0.02% 1.04% 2017: Q4 0.14% 0.63% 0.41% -0.91% 2018: Q1 1.61% 1.47% -0.14% 0.27% 2018: Q2-0.07% 1.15% -0.05% -1.17% 2018: Q3 2.37% 0.35% -0.14% 2.33%
4 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Consumer Sentiment (source: University of Michigan, Survey Research Center)
5 Jan-96 Feb-97 Mar-98 Apr-99 May-00 Jun-01 Jul-02 Aug-03 Sep-04 Oct-05 Nov-06 Dec-07 Jan-09 Feb-10 Mar-11 Apr-12 May-13 Jun-14 Jul-15 Aug-16 Sep-17 Oct-18 Retail Sales (source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, annual rate of growth) 12% 9% 6% 3% 0% -3% -6% -9% RS Total RS ex-auto -12%
6 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Car & Truck Sales H & I Effect (Source: Department of Commerce, in millions) Autos Light Trucks 4
7 Jan-00 Nov-00 Sep-01 Jul-02 May-03 Mar-04 Jan-05 Nov-05 Sep-06 Jul-07 May-08 Mar-09 Jan-10 Nov-10 Sep-11 Jul-12 May-13 Mar-14 Jan-15 Nov-15 Sep-16 Jul-17 May ISM s PMI (Source: Institute of Supply Management)
8 Jan-02 Dec-02 Nov-03 Oct-04 Sep-05 Aug-06 Jul-07 Jun-08 May-09 Apr-10 Mar-11 Feb-12 Jan-13 Dec-13 Nov-14 Oct-15 Sep-16 Aug-17 Jul-18 Foreign Exchange: Trading Partners (Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System)
9 Jan-06 Aug-06 Mar-07 Oct-07 May-08 Dec-08 Jul-09 Feb-10 Sep-10 Apr-11 Nov-11 Jun-12 Jan-13 Aug-13 Mar-14 Oct-14 May-15 Dec-15 Jul-16 Feb-17 Sep-17 Apr-18 Corporate Profits (with CCA & Inventory adjustment; source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, annual rate of growth) 80% 60% 40% L6M L12M 20% 0% -20% -40%
10 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Leading Economic Indicators (source: Conference Board, % change in last 6 months) 9% 6% 3% 0% -3% -6% -9% -12% -15%
11 Jan-00 Nov-00 Sep-01 Jul-02 May-03 Mar-04 Jan-05 Nov-05 Sep-06 Jul-07 May-08 Mar-09 Jan-10 Nov-10 Sep-11 Jul-12 May-13 Mar-14 Jan-15 Nov-15 Sep-16 Jul Change in Payroll Employment (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)
12 Utah Texas North Dakota Colorado Washington District of Col Idaho California Oregon Massachusetts Florida Tennessee New York Georgia South Carolina North Carolina Nevada South Dakota Arizona Montana Minnesota New Hampshire Virginia Nebraska Hawaii Maryland Oklahoma Delaware Indiana Iowa Kentucky Pennsylvania Ohio Arkansas Missouri Wisconsin Michigan New Jersey Louisiana Illinois Kansas Rhode Island Maine Vermont Alabama Alaska Mississippi New Mexico Connecticut West Virginia Wyoming 21% State Employment (Net Change) (source: Bureau of Labor Statistics) 18% 15% 12% 9% 6% 3% 0% -3% -6%
13 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 8% SE State Employment (source; Bureau of Labor Statistics) 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% AL AR FL GA KY LA MS NC SC TN VA -8% -10%
14 Total Mining Const Manuf T T & Util Info Fin Prof & Biz Ser Educ & HC Leis & Hosp Other Serv Govt ATL Employment Shift by Sector (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics) 8% 6% L12M L5Y 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%
15 GA Albany Athens Atlanta Augusta Brunswisk Columbus Dalton Gainesville Hinesville Macon Rome Savannah Valdosta Warner Robins Employment: Georgia Cities (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics) 40% 30% 20% Recess Recovery Net 10% 0% -10% -20% -30%
16 Jan-92 Feb-93 Mar-94 Apr-95 May-96 Jun-97 Jul-98 Aug-99 Sep-00 Oct-01 Nov-02 Dec-03 Jan-05 Feb-06 Mar-07 Apr-08 May-09 Jun-10 Jul-11 Aug-12 Sep-13 Oct-14 Nov-15 Dec-16 Jan-18 Employment: Atlanta (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics) 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% ATL GA US -8%
17 Jan-74 Jul-75 Jan-77 Jul-78 Jan-80 Jul-81 Jan-83 Jul-84 Jan-86 Jul-87 Jan-89 Jul-90 Jan-92 Jul-93 Jan-95 Jul-96 Jan-98 Jul-99 Jan-01 Jul-02 Jan-04 Jul-05 Jan-07 Jul-08 Jan-10 Jul-11 Jan-13 Jul-14 Jan-16 Jul-17 Labor Force Participation (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics) 68% 66% 64% 62% 60% 58% LFPR E/P Ratio 56% 54%
18 Labor Force Participation by Age Cohort (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics) 90% 80% 70% % 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 16 to to to to to to to
19 Prices: Still talk of Deflation/Inflation? (source: Bureau of Labor Statistics) CPI fell by 0.1% in December after having been flat and 0.3% in November and October. Core CPI up 0.2% in November after rising by 0.2% in two previous months. Overall CPI up 1.9% over last 12 months. Core up 2.2% over same period. Energy component down by 0.3% over the last 12 months.
20 Jan-04 Oct-04 Jul-05 Apr-06 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 Jan-13 Oct-13 Jul-14 Apr-15 Jan-16 Oct-16 Jul-17 Apr-18 Crude Oil: West Texas Intermediate (Source: US Energy Information Administration)
21 Inputs to Construction Inputs to Nonres Construct Plumb Fixtures and Fittings Fabric Struct Metal Products Iron and Steel Steel Mills Products Nonferrous Wire and Cable Softwood Lumber Concrete Products Prepared Asphalt Construction Cost (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Associated Builders & Contractors) 25% 20% M/M Y/Y 15% 10% 5% 0% -5%
22 Jan-80 Dec-81 Nov-83 Oct-85 Sep-87 Aug-89 Jul-91 Jun-93 May-95 Apr-97 Mar-99 Feb-01 Jan-03 Dec-04 Nov-06 Oct-08 Sep-10 Aug-12 Jul-14 Jun-16 May-18 Federal Funds Rate Short Rates Moving Higher (Source: Board of Governors of Federal Reserve System) 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
23 120% 100% 80% Market s FFR Outlook (Source: CME Group) bps bps bps bps bps bps 60% 40% 20% 0% 1/30/2019 3/20/2019 5/1/2019 6/19/2019 7/31/2019 9/18/ /30/ /11/2019 1/29/2020
24 Comments on LIBOR/SOFR LIBOR fading away? SOFE is secured, based on actual transactions. Derivatives have longest exposure.
25 Jan-80 Sep-81 May-83 Jan-85 Sep-86 May-88 Jan-90 Sep-91 May-93 Jan-95 Sep-96 May-98 Jan-00 Sep-01 May-03 Jan-05 Sep-06 May-08 Jan-10 Sep-11 May-13 Jan-15 Sep-16 May Year Treasury Bonds (Source: Board of Governors of Federal Reserve System) 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0%
26 PIIGS Revisited (Source: European Central Bank) 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% Mar-15 Jun-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Oct-16 Jun-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Aug-18 Nov-18 2% 0% Portugal Ireland Italy Greece Spain
27 Large Scale Asset Purchases (source: Board of Governors of Federal Reserve System) QE1 (March 2009) $1.25 T in MBS $200B in Agencies $300M in Treasuries QE2 (November 2010) $600B in Treasuries Operation Twist Swapped $667B in longs for shorts QE3 (September 2012) $85B/month agency MBS & Treasuries Taper begins December 2012
28 Treasury Yield Curve Spreads (Source: Board of Governors of Federal Reserve System) & 10 FFR & Sep-17 Jun-16 Mar-15 Dec-13 Sep-12 Jun-11 Mar-10 Dec-08 Sep-07 Jun-06 Mar-05 Dec-03 Sep-02 Jun-01 Mar-00 Dec-98 Sep-97 Jun-96 Mar-95 Dec-93 Sep-92 Jun-91 Mar-90 Dec-88 Sep-87 Jun-86 Mar-85 Dec-83 Sep-82 Jun-81 Mar-80 Dec-78 Sep-77 Jun-76
29 Corp to Treasury Spread (bps) (Source: Board of Governors of Federal Reserve System) AAA 10yT Baa 10yT Jan-98 Oct-98 Jul-99 Apr-00 Jan-01 Oct-01 Jul-02 Apr-03 Jan-04 Oct-04 Jul-05 Apr-06 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 Jan-13 Oct-13 Jul-14 Apr-15 Jan-16 Oct-16 Jul-17 Apr-18
30 Jan-91 Apr-92 Jul-93 Oct-94 Jan-96 Apr-97 Jul-98 Oct-99 Jan-01 Apr-02 Jul-03 Oct-04 Jan-06 Apr-07 Jul-08 Oct-09 Jan-11 Apr-12 Jul-13 Oct-14 Jan-16 Apr % 3.0% 2.5% Charge Off Rates at Banks (source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System) Biz CRE 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5%
31 90+ Days Delinquent by Loan Type (source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Credit Panel/Equifax)
32 Jan-76 Jun-77 Nov-78 Apr-80 Sep-81 Feb-83 Jul-84 Dec-85 May-87 Oct-88 Mar-90 Aug-91 Jan-93 Jun-94 Nov-95 Apr-97 Sep-98 Feb-00 Jul-01 Dec-02 May-04 Oct-05 Mar-07 Aug-08 Jan-10 Jun-11 Nov-12 Apr-14 Sep-15 Feb-17 Jul Equity Valuation: Shiller CAPE (source:
33 Apr-90 Sep-91 Feb-93 Jul-94 Dec-95 May-97 Oct-98 Mar-00 Aug-01 Jan-03 Jun-04 Nov-05 Apr-07 Sep-08 Feb-10 Jul-11 Dec-12 May-14 Oct-15 Mar-17 Yields over Funding Cost (source: Federal Reserve, Senior Officer Lending Survey) 120% 100% 80% Small Firms Mid & Large Firms 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80%
34 Jan-03 Oct-03 Jul-04 Apr-05 Jan-06 Oct-06 Jul-07 Apr-08 Jan-09 Oct-09 Jul-10 Apr-11 Jan-12 Oct-12 Jul-13 Apr-14 Jan-15 Oct-15 Jul-16 Apr-17 Jan-18 Construction Spending: By Sector (Source: U.S. Bureau of Census) 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% Residential Non-Residential -50%
35 Lodging Office Commercial Health care Educational Religious Public safety Amuse & Rec Transportation Communication Power Highway and street Sewage & waste disp Water supply Conserv and develop Manufacturing Non-Residential Construction (Source: U.S. Bureau of Census) 40% 30% 20% % 0% -10% -20%
36 Jan-98 Sep-98 May-99 Jan-00 Sep-00 May-01 Jan-02 Sep-02 May-03 Jan-04 Sep-04 May-05 Jan-06 Sep-06 May-07 Jan-08 Sep-08 May-09 Jan-10 Sep-10 May-11 Jan-12 Sep-12 May-13 Jan-14 Sep-14 May-15 Jan-16 Sep-16 May-17 Jan-18 US Housing Permits: SF and Total (source: U.S. Bureau of Census) Total SF
37 Jan-98 Aug-98 Mar-99 Oct-99 May-00 Dec-00 Jul-01 Feb-02 Sep-02 Apr-03 Nov-03 Jun-04 Jan-05 Aug-05 Mar-06 Oct-06 May-07 Dec-07 Jul-08 Feb-09 Sep-09 Apr-10 Nov-10 Jun-11 Jan-12 Aug-12 Mar-13 Oct-13 May-14 Dec-14 Jul-15 Feb-16 Sep-16 Apr-17 Nov-17 Jun-18 US Housing Permits: Multi-family (Source: U.S. Bureau of Census)
38 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 ATL Housing Starts: SF and Total (12 month moving average)
39 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 ATL Housing Starts: Multi-family (12 month moving average)
40 Cobb Housing: Permits and Closings (source: Smart Real Estate Data) New Home Closings Permits
41 North Fulton Housing: Closings (source: Smart Real Estate Data) New Home Closings
42 Jan-00 Nov-00 Sep-01 Jul-02 May-03 Mar-04 Jan-05 Nov-05 Sep-06 Jul-07 May-08 Mar-09 Jan-10 Nov-10 Sep-11 Jul-12 May-13 Mar-14 Jan-15 Nov-15 Sep-16 Jul-17 May-18 Home Prices & CPI (Source: S&P Case-Shiller & Bureau of Labor Statistics) CPI CS-20 CS-US
43 House Prices: Net (source: Federal Housing Finance Agency) 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30%
44 Denver Dallas Seattle Portland San Francisco Boston Charlotte National-US Atlanta Los Angeles Comp-20 San Diego Comp-10 Cleveland Minneapolis Detroit New York Washington Tampa Miami Chicago Phoenix Las Vegas CS/S&P Home Price Index (Source: S&P Case Shiller) 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% Bust Net -80%
45 Albany Athens Atlanta Augusta Brunswick Columbus Dalton Gainesville Hinesville Macon Rome Savannah Valdosta Warner Robins GA MSA Home Prices (source: Federal Housing Finance Agency) 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% Bust Recovery Net
46 Jan-01 Oct-01 Jul-02 Apr-03 Jan-04 Oct-04 Jul-05 Apr-06 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 Jan-13 Oct-13 Jul-14 Apr-15 Jan-16 Oct-16 Jul-17 Apr-18 Case Shiller: Atlanta & US-20 (Source: S&P Case Shiller) 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% ATL CS-20 US -30%
47 Jan-00 Oct-00 Jul-01 Apr-02 Jan-03 Oct-03 Jul-04 Apr-05 Jan-06 Oct-06 Jul-07 Apr-08 Jan-09 Oct-09 Jul-10 Apr-11 Jan-12 Oct-12 Jul-13 Apr-14 Jan-15 Oct-15 Household RE Equity (Source: Board of Governors of Federal Reserve System)
48 Internal Migration (source: North American Moving Services)
49 The Demographics: Boom & Bust (Source: CDC, US Bureau of Census)
50 Currents Issues in Fiscal Affairs Federal: Shutdown longest Biggest Play: Tax Reform but 2.0 unlikely Still in Play:, Keystone, Dodd-Frank, EPA, NLRB Next in Play: Infrastructure Always in Play: SCOTUS Ongoing Play: Revising Trade Bilateral vs Multilateral, Lumber deals and tariffs States: Tax Reform Initiatives in other States slow, but SALT consideration weigh in Recent gains in manufacturing facilities due to reshoring SE states domination biz location ranking, but not exclusive. Local: RE valuation rising = tax revenues, fiscal distress moderating
51 ON THE ECONOMIC, BUSINESS AND POLITICAL CLIMATE Roger Tutterow, Ph.D. Coles College of Business Kennesaw State University
COMMENTS ON THE ECONOMIC, BUSINESS AND POLITICAL CLIMATE
COMMENTS ON THE ECONOMIC, BUSINESS AND POLITICAL CLIMATE Roger Tutterow, Ph.D. Coles College of Business Kennesaw State University rtuttero@kennesaw.edu Montana s Credit Unions Power Up Conference May
Mutual Fund Tax Information
2008 Mutual Fund Tax Information We have provided this information as a service to our shareholders. Thornburg Investment Management cannot and does not give tax or accounting advice. If you have further
Mutual Fund Tax Information
Mutual Fund Tax Information We have provided this information as a service to our shareholders. Thornburg Investment Management cannot and does not give tax or accounting advice. If you have further questions
Undocumented Immigrants are:
Immigrants are: Current vs. Full Legal Status for All Immigrants Appendix 1: Detailed State and Local Tax Contributions of Total Immigrant Population Current vs. Full Legal Status for All Immigrants
State Individual Income Taxes: Personal Exemptions/Credits, 2011
Individual Income Taxes: Personal Exemptions/s, 2011 Elderly Handicapped Blind Deaf Disabled FEDERAL Exemption $3,700 $7,400 $3,700 $7,400 $0 $3,700 $0 $0 $0 $0 Alabama Exemption $1,500 $3,000 $1,500 $3,000
Income from U.S. Government Obligations
Baird s ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------- Enclosed is the 2017 Tax Form for your account with
Slow and Low: The Economic and Financial Outlook
Southern Legislative Conference 7th Annual Meeting Slow and Low: The Economic and Financial Outlook July, William R. Emmons Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis William.R.Emmons@stls.frb.org These comments
Annual Costs Cost of Care. Home Health Care
2017 Cost of Care Home Health Care USA National $18,304 $47,934 $114,400 3% $18,304 $49,192 $125,748 3% Alaska $33,176 $59,488 $73,216 1% $36,608 $63,492 $73,216 2% Alabama $29,744 $38,553 $52,624 1% $29,744
Checkpoint Payroll Sources All Payroll Sources
Checkpoint Payroll Sources All Payroll Sources Alabama Alaska Announcements Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Source Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act ( FATCA ) Under Chapter 4 of the Code
Kentucky , ,349 55,446 95,337 91,006 2,427 1, ,349, ,306,236 5,176,360 2,867,000 1,462
TABLE B MEMBERSHIP AND BENEFIT OPERATIONS OF STATE-ADMINISTERED EMPLOYEE RETIREMENT SYSTEMS, LAST MONTH OF FISCAL YEAR: MARCH 2003 Beneficiaries receiving periodic benefit payments Periodic benefit payments
State Corporate Income Tax Collections Decline Sharply
Corporate Income Tax Collections Decline Sharply Nicholas W. Jenny and Donald J. Boyd The Rockefeller Institute Fiscal News: Vol. 1, No. 3 July 26, 2001 According to a report from the Congressional Budget
Pay Frequency and Final Pay Provisions
Pay Frequency and Final Pay Provisions State Pay Frequency Minimum Final Pay Resign Final Pay Terminated Alabama Bi-weekly or semi-monthly No Provision No Provision Alaska Semi-monthly or monthly Next
Business Planning for the New Economic Era
Business Planning for the New Economic Era A Quick Overview of the PayNet Database One of the largest databases of private financial obligations: o Over 21 million term debt contracts o Over $1.1 trillion
SBA Loan Programs to Support Small Business Exporters
Federal & State Trade Development International Trade Finance International Affairs Trade Agreements Bill Houck Regional Manager March 28 th, 2018 NASBITE International 31 st Annual Conference SBA Loan
The Costs and Benefits of Half a Loaf: The Economic Effects of Recent Regulation of Debit Card Interchange Fees. Robert J. Shapiro
The Costs and Benefits of Half a Loaf: The Economic Effects of Recent Regulation of Debit Card Interchange Fees Robert J. Shapiro October 1, 2013 The Costs and Benefits of Half a Loaf: The Economic Effects
Union Members in New York and New Jersey 2018
For Release: Friday, March 29, 2019 19-528-NEW NEW YORK NEW JERSEY INFORMATION OFFICE: New York City, N.Y. Technical information: (646) 264-3600 BLSinfoNY@bls.gov www.bls.gov/regions/new-york-new-jersey
REBUILD & RECOVER. VEGAS HOUSING REPORT Suncoast Hotel & Casino April 22, Prepared by:
REBUILD & RECOVER VEGAS HOUSING REPORT Suncoast Hotel & Casino April 22, 2014 Prepared by: REBUILD The Great Recovery continues moderately. Nevada Recovery Comparison: Last 11 Recessions % Job Losses Compared
Federal Rates and Limits
Federal s and Limits FICA Social Security (OASDI) Base $118,500 Medicare (HI) Base No Limit Social Security (OASDI) Percentage 6.20% Medicare (HI) Percentage Maximum Employee Social Security (OASDI) Withholding
Sales Tax Return Filing Thresholds by State
Thanks to R&M Consulting for assistance in putting this together Sales Tax Return Filing Thresholds by State State Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Filing Thresholds
Ability-to-Repay Statutes
Ability-to-Repay Statutes FEDERAL ALABAMA ALASKA ARIZONA ARKANSAS CALIFORNIA STATUTE Truth in Lending, Regulation Z Consumer Credit Secure and Fair Enforcement for Bankers, Brokers, and Loan Originators
The Effect of the Federal Cigarette Tax Increase on State Revenue
FISCAL April 2009 No. 166 FACT The Effect of the Federal Cigarette Tax Increase on State Revenue By Patrick Fleenor Today the federal cigarette tax will rise from 39 cents to $1.01 per pack. The proceeds
ATHENE Performance Elite Series of Fixed Index Annuities
Rates Effective August 8, 05 ATHE Performance Elite Series of Fixed Index Annuities State Availability Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas Product Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire California PE New Jersey
State Income Tax Tables
ALABAMA 1 st $1,000... 2% Next 5,000... 4% Over 6,000... 5% ALASKA... 0% ARIZONA 1 1 st $10,000... 2.87% Next 15,000... 3.2% Next 25,000... 3.74% Next 100,000... 4.72% Over 150,000... 5.04% ARKANSAS 1
State Minimum Wage Chart (See below for Local/City Minimum Wage Chart)
State Current Minimum Wage State Minimum Wage Chart (See below for Local/City Minimum Wage Chart) Maximum Tip Credit Allowed for Tipped Employees Federal $7.25 $5.12 $2.13 Minimum Cash Wage for Tipped
Impacts of Prepayment Penalties and Balloon Loans on Foreclosure Starts, in Selected States: Supplemental Tables
THE UNIVERSITY NORTH CAROLINA at CHAPEL HILL T H E F R A N K H A W K I N S K E N A N I N S T I T U T E DR. MICHAEL A. STEGMAN, DIRECTOR T 919-962-8201 OF PRIVATE ENTERPRISE CENTER FOR COMMUNITY CAPITALISM
Q Homeowner Confidence Survey Results. May 20, 2010
Q1 2010 Homeowner Confidence Survey Results May 20, 2010 The Zillow Homeowner Confidence Survey is fielded quarterly to determine the confidence level of American homeowners when it comes to the value
AIG Benefit Solutions Producer Licensing and Appointment Requirements by State
3600 Route 66, Mail Stop 4J, Neptune, NJ 07754 AIG Benefit Solutions Producer Licensing and Appointment Requirements by State As an industry leader in the group insurance benefits market, AIG is firmly
American Economics Group Clear and Effective Economic Analysis. American Economics Group
Presentation for: Federation Clear of and Tax Effective Administrators Economic Analysis 9/22/03 Charles W. de Seve, Ph.D. www.americaneconomics.com The Economy is Recovering : The National Economic Setting
CALCULATING THE SUPPLEMENTAL NUTRITION ASSISTANCE PROGRAM (SNAP) PROGRAM ACCESS INDEX: A STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE FOR 2016
USDA ~ United States Department of Agriculture Food and Nutrition Service February 2018 CALCULATING THE SUPPLEMENTAL NUTRITION ASSISTANCE PROGRAM (SNAP) PROGRAM ACCESS INDEX: A STEPBYSTEP GUIDE FOR 2016
Transmission of material in this release is embargoed until 8:30 a.m. (EDT) Wednesday, October 31, 2012
Transmission of material in this release is embargoed until 8:30 a.m. (EDT) Wednesday, October 31, USDL-12-2162 Technical information: Media contact: (202) 691-6199 NCSinfo@bls.gov www.bls.gov/ect (202)
STATE BOND COMMISSION DEPARTMENT OF TREASURY. March 15, 2018
STATE BOND COMMISSION DEPARTMENT OF TREASURY March 15, 2018 1 Overview In accordance with the Comprehensive Capital Outlay Budget, cash lines of credit provide a mechanism to cash flow capital outlay projects
Termination Final Pay Requirements
State Involuntary Termination Voluntary Resignation Vacation Payout Requirement Alabama No specific regulations currently exist. No specific regulations currently exist. if the employer s policy provides
Understanding Oregon s Throwback Rule for Apportioning Corporate Income
Understanding Oregon s Throwback Rule for Apportioning Corporate Income Senate Interim Committee on Finance and Revenue January 12, 2018 2 Apportioning Corporate Income Apportionment is a method of dividing
# of Credit Unions As of September 30, 2011
# of Credit Unions # of Credit Unions # of Credit Unions As of September 30, 2011 8,400 8,200 8,000 7,800 7,600 7,400 7,200 8,332 8,065 7,794 7,556 7,325 7,000 6,800 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000
Providing Subprime Consumers with Access to Credit: Helpful or Harmful? James R. Barth Auburn University
Providing Subprime Consumers with Access to Credit: Helpful or Harmful? James R. Barth Auburn University FICO Scores: Identifying Subprime Consumers Category FICO Score Range Super-prime 740 and Higher
Required Training Completion Date. Asset Protection Reciprocity
Completion Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California State Certification: must complete initial 16 hours (8 hrs of general LTC CE and 8 hrs of classroom-only CE specifically on the CA for LTC prior to
Minimum Wage per State
per State Future and Notes ALABAMA NONE Federal minimum applies. BIRMINGHAM: July 2016 $ 8.50; July 2017: $10.10 ALASKA $8.75 ARIZONA $8.05 ARKANSAS $7.50 Nov. 4 2014 ballot measure approved to raise minimum
EBRI Databook on Employee Benefits Chapter 6: Employment-Based Retirement Plan Participation
EBRI Databook on Employee Benefits Chapter 6: Employment-Based Retirement Plan Participation UPDATED July 2014 This chapter looks at the percentage of American workers who work for an employer who sponsors
# of Credit Unions As of March 31, 2011
# of Credit Unions # of Credit Unins # of Credit Unions As of March 31, 2011 8,600 8,400 8,200 8,000 8,478 8,215 7,800 7,909 7,600 7,400 7,651 7,442 7,200 7,000 6,800 # of Credit Unions -Trend By Asset-Based
J.P. Morgan Funds 2018 Distribution Notice
J.P. Morgan Funds 2018 Distribution Notice To assist you in preparing your 2018 Tax returns, we re pleased to provide this distribution notice for your J.P.Morgan Fund investment. If you are unclear about
Q209 NATIONAL DELINQUENCY SURVEY FROM THE MORTGAGE BANKERS ASSOCIATION. Data as of June 30, 2009
NATIONAL DELINQUENCY SURVEY FROM THE MORTGAGE BANKERS ASSOCIATION Q209 Data as of June 30, 2009 2009 Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). All rights reserved, except as explicitly granted. Data are from
IMPORTANT TAX INFORMATION
IMPORTANT TAX INFORMATION The following information about your enclosed 1099-DIV from s should be used when preparing your 2017 tax return. Form 1099-DIV reports dividends, exempt-interest dividends, capital
PAY STATEMENT REQUIREMENTS
PAY MENT 2017 PAY MENT Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia No generally applicable wage payment law for private employers. Rate
Motor Vehicle Sales/Use, Tax Reciprocity and Rate Chart-2005
The following is a Motor Vehicle Sales/Use Tax Reciprocity and Rate Chart which you may find helpful in determining the Sales/Use Tax liability of your customers who either purchase vehicles outside of
Mapping the geography of retirement savings
of savings A comparative analysis of retirement savings data by state based on information gathered from over 60,000 individuals who have used the VoyaCompareMe online tool. Mapping the geography of retirement
Q309 NATIONAL DELINQUENCY SURVEY FROM THE MORTGAGE BANKERS ASSOCIATION. Data as of September 30, 2009
NATIONAL DELINQUENCY SURVEY FROM THE MORTGAGE BANKERS ASSOCIATION Q309 Data as of September 30, 2009 2009 Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). All rights reserved, except as explicitly granted. Data are
Aetna Individual Direct Pay Commissions Schedule
Aetna Individual Direct Pay Commissions Schedule Cards Issued Broker Rate Broker Tier Per Year 1st Yr 2nd Yr 3+ Yrs Levels 11-Jan 4.00% 4.00% 3.00% Bronze 24-Dec 6.00% 4.00% 3.00% Silver 25-49 8.00% 4.00%
Recourse for Employees Misclassified as Independent Contractors Department for Professional Employees, AFL-CIO
Recourse for Employees Misclassified as Independent Contractors Department for Professional Employees, AFL-CIO State Relevant Agency Contact Information Online Resources Online Filing Alabama Department
Nation s Uninsured Rate for Children Drops to Another Historic Low in 2016
Nation s Rate for Children Drops to Another Historic Low in 2016 by Joan Alker and Olivia Pham The number of uninsured children nationwide dropped to another historic low in 2016 with approximately 250,000
Fingerprint, Biographical Affidavit and Third-Party Verification Reports Requirements
Updates to the State Specific Information Fingerprint, Biographical Affidavit and Third-Party Verification Reports Requirements State Requirements For Licensure Requirements After Licensure (Non-Domestic)
The table below reflects state minimum wages in effect for 2014, as well as future increases. State Wage Tied to Federal Minimum Wage *
State Minimum Wages The table below reflects state minimum wages in effect for 2014, as well as future increases. Summary: As of Jan. 1, 2014, 21 states and D.C. have minimum wages above the federal minimum
NOTICE TO MEMBERS CANADIAN DERIVATIVES CORPORATION CANADIENNE DE. Trading by U.S. Residents
NOTICE TO MEMBERS CANADIAN DERIVATIVES CORPORATION CANADIENNE DE CLEARING CORPORATION COMPENSATION DE PRODUITS DÉRIVÉS NOTICE TO MEMBERS No. 2002-013 January 28, 2002 Trading by U.S. Residents This is
Bulletin. Annuity Requirement and AML Training available through Quest CE
Bulletin Marketing/Annuity Annuity Requirement and AML Training available through Quest CE In order to conform to the NAIC Suitability in Annuity transactions Model Regulation (NAIC-275) Presidential Life
Federal Registry. NMLS Federal Registry Quarterly Report Quarter I
Federal Registry NMLS Federal Registry Quarterly Report 2012 Quarter I Updated June 6, 2012 Conference of State Bank Supervisors 1129 20 th Street, NW, 9 th Floor Washington, D.C. 20036-4307 NMLS Federal
Residual Income Requirements
Residual Income Requirements ytzhxrnmwlzh Ch. 4, 9-e: Item 44, Balance Available for Family Support (04/10/09) Enter the appropriate residual income amount from the following tables in the guideline box.
MINIMUM WAGE WORKERS IN HAWAII 2013
WEST INFORMATION OFFICE San Francisco, Calif. For release Wednesday, June 25, 2014 14-898-SAN Technical information: (415) 625-2282 BLSInfoSF@bls.gov www.bls.gov/ro9 Media contact: (415) 625-2270 MINIMUM
DATA AS OF SEPTEMBER 30, 2010
NATIONAL DELINQUENCY SURVEY Q3 2010 DATA AS OF SEPTEMBER 30, 2010 2010 Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). All rights reserved, except as explicitly granted. Data are from a proprietary paid subscription
MEDICAID BUY-IN PROGRAMS
MEDICAID BUY-IN PROGRAMS Under federal law, states have the option of creating Medicaid buy-in programs that enable employed individuals with disabilities who make more than what is allowed under Section
SBA should aid and assist small businesses to increase their ability to compete in international markets.
Authority of Office of International Trade 1 SBA should aid and assist small businesses to increase their ability to compete in international markets. SMALL BUSINESS ACT [The Act of July 18, 1958] Small
Spring 2011 State Forecast
Spring 2011 State Forecast Cement Update Market Intelligence Group Ed Sullivan Dave Zwicke Vice President & Chief Economist Manager, Sr. Economist 847.972.9006 847.972.9192 OHIO Gross State Product & Income
ACORD Forms Updated in AMS R1
ACORD Forms Updated in AMS360 2017 R1 The following forms will use the ACORD form viewer, also new in this release. Forms with an indicate they were added because of requests in the Product Enhancement
Metrics and Measurements for State Pension Plans. November 17, 2016 Greg Mennis
Metrics and Measurements for State Pension Plans November 17, 2016 Greg Mennis Fiscal Sustainability Metrics Net Amortization Measures whether contributions are sufficient to reduce pension debt if plan
Forecasting State and Local Government Spending: Model Re-estimation. January Equation
Forecasting State and Local Government Spending: Model Re-estimation January 2015 Equation The REMI government spending estimation assumes that the state and local government demand is driven by the regional
Consumer Installment Loan Regulations - State
Alabama Yes State of Alabama Banking Department Code 5-18-1 et seq http://www.bank.state.al.us/faq_regarding _licensing.htm Alaska Yes Department of Commerce, Community and Economic Development, Consumer
EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX MARCH 2011
Transmission of material in this release is embargoed until 8:30 a.m. (EDT) Friday, April 29, USDL-11-0586 Technical information: Media contact: (202) 691-6199 NCSinfo@bls.gov www.bls.gov/ect (202) 691-5902
STATE AND FEDERAL MINIMUM WAGES
2017 STATE AND FEDERAL MINIMUM WAGES STATE AND FEDERAL MINIMUM WAGES The federal Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA) establishes minimum wage and overtime requirements for most employers in the private sector
Chapter D State and Local Governments
Chapter D State and Local Governments State and Local Governments contains detailed information on the taxes, revenues, and expenditures of states and localities. The public finances of these two levels
Fingerprint and Biographical Affidavit Requirements
Updates to the State-Specific Information Fingerprint and Biographical Affidavit Requirements State Requirements For Licensure Requirements After Licensure (Non-Domestic) Alabama NAIC biographical affidavit
American Jobs Act - Preventing Teacher Layoffs Estimated Jobs Impact by State
American Jobs Act - Preventing Teacher Layoffs Estimated Jobs Impact by Funds Allocated Estimate of Jobs Supported for 1 School Year Alabama $ 451,477,775 7,000 Alaska $ 70,483,533 900 Arizona $ 625,502,087
STATE MINIMUM WAGES 2017 MINIMUM WAGE BY STATE
STATE MINIMUM WAGES 2017 MINIMUM WAGE BY STATE The table below, created by the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL), reflects current state minimum wages in effect as of January 1, 2017, as
DFA INVESTMENT DIMENSIONS GROUP INC. DIMENSIONAL INVESTMENT GROUP INC. Institutional Class Shares January 2018
DFA INVESTMENT DIMENSIONS GROUP INC. DIMENSIONAL INVESTMENT GROUP INC. Institutional Class Shares January 2018 Supplementary Tax Information 2017 The following supplementary information may be useful in
TA X FACTS NORTHERN FUNDS 2O17
TA X FACTS 2O17 Northern Funds Tax Facts provides specific information about your Northern Funds investment income and capital gain distributions for 2017. If you have any questions about how to apply
Update: 50-State Survey of Retiree Health Care Liabilities Most recent data show changes to benefits, funding policies could help manage rising costs
A fact sheet from Dec 2018 Update: 50-State Survey of Retiree Health Care Liabilities Most recent data show changes to benefits, funding policies could help manage rising costs Getty Images Overview States
2014 U.S. Census (2015) Median African-American Household Income Rank, Memphis Included. Household Median Income Ranking, African American Population
2015 2015 Rankings Report Prepared by Elena Delavega, PhD, MSW Department of Social Work Benjamin L. Hooks Institute for Social Change University of Memphis 2014 U.S. Census (2015) - Rank, Memphis Included
BRINKER CAPITAL DESTINATIONS TRUST
Important 2018 Tax Information Regarding Your Mutual s BRINKER CAPITAL DESTINATIONS TRUST The following tax information is furnished for informational purposes only. Please consult your tax advisor for
2014 STATE AND FEDERAL MINIMUM WAGES HR COMPLIANCE CENTER
2014 STATE AND FEDERAL MINIMUM WAGES HR COMPLIANCE CENTER The federal Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA), which applies to most employers, establishes minimum wage and overtime requirements for the private
White Paper 2018 STATE AND FEDERAL MINIMUM WAGES
White Paper STATE AND FEDERAL S White Paper STATE AND FEDERAL S The federal Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA) establishes minimum wage and overtime requirements for most employers in the private sector and
National Trends in State and Local Government Employment and Finances
National Trends in State and Local Government Employment and Finances Economic Advisory Board Meeting New York State Division of the Budget State Capitol, Albany, NY (By Telephone) December 7, 2010 Donald
The Florida Turnaround Story. Jesse Panuccio DEO Executive Director September 2, 2015
The Florida Turnaround Story Jesse Panuccio DEO Executive Director September 2, 2015 1 2 Private-Sector Jobs Created December 2010 July 2015, Seasonally Adjusted 917,400 Private Sector Jobs Created 3 Port
Minimum Wage Laws in the States - April 3, 2006
1 of 15 Wage Laws in the States - April 3, 2006 Note: Where Federal and state law have different minimum wage rates, the higher standard applies. Wage and Overtime Standards Applicable to Nonsupervisory
1. External Economic Drivers 2. Current Conditions 3. Economic Projections 4. Long term Trends
Maine s Economic Outlook: 2010 and Beyond January 12, 2010 James Breece, Ph.D. University of Maine System Outline 1. External Economic Drivers 2. Current Conditions 3. Economic Projections 4. Long term
Tax Recommendations and Actions in Other States. Joel Michael House Research Department June 9, 2011
Tax Recommendations and Actions in Other States Joel Michael House Research Department June 9, 2011 Governors FY 2012 Recommendations 12 governors recommend net revenue (tax and fee) increases 12 governors
The Dog Ate My Home. By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. On Behalf of MCAA. May 3, 2012
The Dog Ate My Home On Behalf of MCAA By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. May 3, 2012 Penny wise, Euro foolish Annual % Change Historic and Projected World Output Growth 2004 through 2013* 6.0% 5.0%
S T A T E TURNING THE TABLES ON PLAINTIFFS IN TRUCKING LITIGATION APRIL 26 27, 2018 CHICAGO, IL. DRI Will Submit Credit For You To Your State Agency
A d j u s t e r C r e d i t C E I n f o r m a t i o n TURNING THE TABLES ON PLAINTIFFS IN TRUCKING LITIGATION APRIL 26 27, 2018 CHICAGO, IL Delaware Georgia Louisiana Mississippi New Hampshire North Carolina
Impact of Tax Changes
Impact of Tax Changes Favorably Impacted Party & event planners Management consulting Company research services Forensic accounting services Industries where private investment is important Manufacturing
What is your New Financing Statement Fee? What is your Amendment Fee (include termination fee if a different amount)?
Topic: UCC Filing Fee Information Question By: Tana Gormely Jurisdiction: Montana Date: 03 April 2012 Jurisdiction Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Question(s) What is your New Financing Statement
NCSL Midwest States Fiscal Leaders Forum. March 10, 2017
NCSL Midwest States Fiscal Leaders Forum March 10, 2017 Public Pensions: 50-State Overview David Draine, Senior Officer Public Sector Retirement Systems Project The Pew Charitable Trusts More than 40 active,
Media Alert. First American CoreLogic Releases Q3 Negative Equity Data
Contact Information Below Media Alert First American CoreLogic Releases Q3 Negative Equity Data First American CoreLogic, the first company to develop a national, state and city-level negative equity report,
Important 2008 Tax Information Regarding Your Mutual Funds
Important 2008 Tax Information Regarding Your Mutual Funds Managed by WESTERN ASSET CLEARBRIDGE ADVISORS LEGG MASON CAPITAL MANAGEMENT BRANDYWINE GLOBAL BATTERYMARCH This Booklet is a summary of useful
A d j u s t e r C r e d i t C E I n f o r m a t i o n S T A T E. DRI Will Submit Credit For You To Your State Agency. (hours ethics included)
A d j u s t e r C r e d i t C E I n f o r m a t i o n INSURANCE COVERAGE AND CLAIMS INSTITUTE APRIL 3 5, 2019 CHICAGO, IL Delaware Georgia Louisiana Mississippi New Hampshire North Carolina (hours ethics
THE STATE OF THE STATES IN DEVELOPMENTAL DISABILITIES
THE STATE OF THE STATES IN DEVELOPMENTAL DISABILITIES Richard Hemp, Mary Kay Rizzolo, Shea Tanis, & David Braddock Universities of Colorado and Illinois-Chicago REINVENTING QUALITY CONFERENCE BALTIMORE,
The 2017 CHP Salary Survey
The 2017 CHP Salary Survey Gary Lauten, CHP, AAHP Niche Analyst Introduction The 2017 certified health physicist (CHP) survey data was collected by having CHPs submit their responses to survey questions
SECTION 109 HOST STATE LOAN-TO-DEPOSIT RATIOS. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the Federal Deposit Insurance
SECTION 109 HOST STATE LOAN-TO-DEPOSIT RATIOS The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (the agencies)
MainStay Funds Income Tax Information Notice
MainStay Funds Income Tax Information Notice The information contained in this brochure is being furnished to shareholders of the MainStay Funds for informational purposes only. Please consult your own
2012 RUN Powered by ADP Tax Changes
2012 RUN Powered by ADP Tax Changes Dear Valued ADP Client, Beginning with your first payroll with checks dated in 2012, you and your employees may notice changes in your paychecks due to updated 2012
STATE TAX WITHHOLDING GUIDELINES
STATE TAX WITHHOLDING GUIDELINES ( Guardian Insurance & Annuity Company, Inc. and Guardian Life Insurance Company of America (hereafter collectively referred to as Company )) (Last Updated 11/2/215) state
!!!!!!!! Testimony!of! Andrew!Stettner! National!Employment!Law!Project!!!! Hearing!Before!the! U.S.!House!of!Representatives,!
Testimonyof AndrewStettner NationalEmploymentLawProject HearingBeforethe U.S.HouseofRepresentatives, Ways&MeansCommittee, SubcommitteeonIncomeSecurity&FamilySupport May4,2010 AndrewStettner,DeputyDirector
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. July 15, 2005 SUBJECT. Banking Agencies Issue Host State Loan-to-Deposit Ratios DETAILS
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 2200 N. PEARL ST. DALLAS, TX 75201-2272 July 15, 2005 Notice 05-37 TO: The Chief Executive Officer of each financial institution and others concerned in the Eleventh Federal
If the foreign survivor of the merger is on the record what do you require?
Topic: Question by: : Foreign Mergers Tracy M. Sebranek Maine Date: December 17, 2013 Manitoba Corporations Canada Alabama Alaska Arizona We require only a certified copy of the merger documents, as long
MINIMUM WAGE WORKERS IN TEXAS 2016
For release: Thursday, May 4, 2017 17-488-DAL SOUTHWEST INFORMATION OFFICE: Dallas, Texas Contact Information: (972) 850-4800 BLSInfoDallas@bls.gov www.bls.gov/regions/southwest MINIMUM WAGE WORKERS IN