Data Digest: Louisiana. October 2013

Transcription

1 Data Digest: Louisiana October 2013

2 A broad indicator of economic activity in Louisiana ticked up in August but it remains well below that of the nation. About the Coincident Economic Indicator Jan 2001 = Coincident Economic Indicator United States Louisiana Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia 2

3 Total employment in Louisiana surpassed its all-time high in August. Thousands, seasonally adjusted 2,000 Louisiana Payroll Employment 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 1, Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics 3

4 Louisiana lost a total of 3.6 percent of its jobs during the downturn. Since its trough, Louisiana has regained all of the jobs it lost and all industries have added back some jobs. Local government Federal & state government Other services Leisure & hospitality Educational & health services Professional & business services Finance, insurance & real estate Information Retail trade Wholesale trade Transportation/Utilities Manufacturing Construction Mining & logging Total Employment Loss and Gain by Industry: Louisiana Percent change peak to trough Percent change trough to present Note: A reading of 0.0 in the trough to present measure indicates that employment continues to decline in these industries. Likewise, a reading of 0.0 in the peak to trough measure indicates that employment continues to increase in these industries; in this instance trough to present is the percent change from January 2007 to present Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

5 Many of Louisiana s industries experienced expanding or improving momentum in August. The federal and state government sector remains weak. 3-month average annualized percent change About Employment Momentum 8 4 Improving Employment Momentum by Industry: Louisiana Information Retail trade Finance, insurance, and real estate Mining and logging Leisure and hospitality Expanding 0 Other services Local government Professional and business services Manufacturing Wholesale trade Construction Federal and state government -4 Education and health services Transportation/Utilities Contracting Slipping Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 5

6 Louisiana has regained all of the jobs it lost during the downturn and all of the state s metro areas have added back jobs as well. Employment Loss and Gain by Metro Area: Louisiana Shreveport New Orleans Monroe Lake Charles -8.9 Percent change peak to trough 8.4 Lafayette Percent change trough to present Houma Baton Rouge Alexandria Louisiana Note: A reading of 0.0 in the trough to present measure indicates that employment continues to decline in these metro areas. Likewise, a reading of 0.0 in the peak to trough measure indicates that employment continues to increase in these metro areas; in this instance trough to present is the percent change from January 2007 to present. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 6

7 3-month average annualized percent change Employment momentum in Lake Charles, Houma, and Lafayette expanded in August. The state s largest metro areas experienced slipping momentum. About Employment Momentum 7 Improving Employment Momentum by Metro Area: Louisiana Expanding 6 Houma Lafayette Lake Charles Shreveport Alexandria New Orleans -2 Monroe Baton Rouge -3 Contracting Slipping Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 7

8 Employment momentum remained in the expanding quadrant in August. 3-month average percent change, annualized About Employment Momentum Track 6 Improving Employment Momentum Track: Louisiana January 2007 Expanding Contracting Slipping Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 8

9 Since recovering from the effects of Hurricane Katrina in late 2005, Louisiana s unemployment rate has remained below the national rate. The monthly unemployment rate for Louisiana was unchanged for the third consecutive month in August. Percent of labor force 12 Unemployment Rates 11 Hurricane Katrina Louisiana United States Note: The MSA numbers are not available for ; the numbers listed are for July Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics 9

10 Initial claims for unemployment insurance in Louisiana declined over the past month. 4-week moving average 12,500 Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims: Louisiana through September 21, 2013 Effects of Hurricane Gustav 10,000 7,500 Initial claims averaged just 2,600 per week during The current average number of initial claims has fallen below that average. 5,000 2, Source: U.S Department of Labor Employment and Training Administration, Haver Analytics 10

11 Sales tax revenue in Louisiana was below its year-ago level in August. Year-to-year change, 3-month moving average 40 Louisiana Sales Tax Revenue Source: Louisiana Department of Revenue, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 11

12 Regional manufacturing activity accelerated somewhat and remained in expansionary territory in August, according to the Southeast Purchasing Managers Index produced by Kennesaw State University. At 50.9, the Louisiana component was a shade higher than the overall reading of 50.6 for the Southeast. 70 Southeast Purchasing Managers Index The Louisiana component of the SE PMI was 50.9 in Note: 50+ = Expansion Source: Kennesaw State University, Coles College of Business Econometric Center 12

13 The number of new home construction permits issued remains near record lows. 250,000 New Residential Home Construction Permits 5, , ,000 4, , ,000 3, , ,000 2,000 75,000 50,000 United States (left scale) Louisiana (right scale) 1,000 25, Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Haver Analytics 0 13

14 The latest data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) indicated a small uptick in home prices in Louisiana. Prices in most of the state s metro areas are above year-ago levels. Q = Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Price Index through Q United States Louisiana Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Haver Analytics Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 14

15 For additional sources of information, see our Local Economic Analysis Research Network membership at 15