Data Digest: Data Georgia August 2011
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1 Data Digest: Georgia August 2011
2 Georgia s economic performance is slightly flatter than that of the United States. About the Coincident Economic Indicator Jan 2001 = Coincident Economic Indicator June United States Georgia Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia 2
3 Job gains remain elusive in Georgia as total employment has fallen below levels of the last recession. Thousands, seasonally adjusted 4,300 Georgia Payroll Employment June ,100 3,900 3,700 3,500 Georgia shed 8.4% of total employment from peak to trough. 3,300 3,100 2,900 2,700 2, Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics 3
4 All industries except education and health care saw significant job losses during the downturn and several continue to post declines. Where job growth has occurred, gains have been modest to date. Local government State government Federal government Other services Leisure & hospitality Education & healthcare Business services Financial services Transport/Warehousing/Utilities Forty percent of Georgia s construction jobs have been lost. Information Retail trade Wholesale trade Manufacturing Construction Total Employment Loss and Gain by Industry: Georgia June 2011 Percent change trough to present Percent change peak to trough Note: A reading of 0.0 in the trough to present measure indicates that employment continues to decline in these industries. Likewise, a reading of 0.0 in the peak to trough measure indicates that employment continues to increase in these industries. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
5 Leisure and hospitality, transportation/warehouse/utilities, and business services continue to show positive employment momentum. State government, construction, information, and financial services employment remain very weak. Retail trade, local government, and About Employment Momentum wholesale trade show some improvement Improving Employment Momentum by Sector: Georgia June 2011 Expanding 3-m month average ann nualized percent change Federal government Construction Local government Financial services Retail trade Information Leisure and hospitality Wholesale trade Manufacturing Transport/ Warehouse/ Utilities Business services Other services Education and health care -12 State government Contracting Slipping Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 5
6 Job losses in Georgia s metro areas have been staggering. Recovery has been slow and Valdosta, one of the smaller metro areas, continues to lose jobs. Employment Loss and Gain by Metro Area: Georgia June 2011 Warner Robins Valdosta Savannah Rome Macon Gainesville Dalton Columbus Brunswick Augusta Atlanta Athens Albany Percent change trough to present Percent change peak to trough Note: A reading of 0.0 in the trough to present measure indicates that employment continues to decline in these metro areas. Likewise, a reading of 0.0 in the peak to trough measure indicates that employment continues to increase in these metro areas. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 6
7 Some of the smaller metro areas like Albany, Rome, Brunswick, Columbus, and Savannah show positive employment momentum. Atlanta, Warner Robins, and Dalton are improving, while Augusta and other, smaller metro areas remain weak. About Employment Momentum 10 Improving Employment Momentum Metro Area: Georgia June 2011 Expanding ualized percent change Atlanta Dalton Columbus Rome Brunswick Albany 3-mo onth average ann 0-2 Gainesville Augusta Savannah Warner Robins Athens Macon -4 Valdosta -6 Contracting Slipping Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 7
8 December 2010 marked the only month since May 2008 that Georgia s employment momentum was in the expanding quadrant, although barely. Employment momentum in Georgia began improving in April About Employment Momentum Track 4 Improving Employment Momentum Track January 2007 June 2011 Expanding ent change, annu ualized 3-mon nth average perc Contracting Slipping Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 8
9 Georgia s unemployment rate remains higher than the overall U.S. rate. Percent of labor force 11 Unemployment Rate June Georgia United States The table shows unemployment rates for metro areas. Current = May Year ago and January 2007 are included for comparison. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics 9
10 Alternative measures of labor underutilization for Georgia namely, the U6 figure show that 17 percent of the state s labor force is unemployed or underemployed, which is higher than comparable U.S. measures. About Unemployment Rates Percent, seasonally adjusted 20 Measures of Labor Utilization: Unemployment Rate and U6 Q (Georgia U6: Q1 2011) United States: U6 United States: Unemployment rate Georgia: U6 Georgia: Unemployment rate Note: U6=Unemployed + Marginally attached + Part-time economic reasons/civilian labor force + Marginally attached. Georgia U6 data are through first-quarter Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics 10
11 Initial claims for unemployment insurance remain high. 4 week moving average 25,000 Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims: Georgia July 9, ,000 21,000 19,000 17,000 15,000 13,000 11,000 9,000 7,000 5, Source: U.S Department of Labor Employment and Training Administration, Haver Analytics 11
12 Sales tax revenues are rebounding and have been posting year-over-year increases since late Year-over-year percent change, 3-month average 50 Georgia Sales Tax Revenue June Source: Georgia Department of Revenue, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 12
13 Regional manufacturing activity declined in June, according to the Southeast Purchasing Managers Index produced by Kennesaw State University, based on decreases for all underlying components except employment. 70 Southeast Purchasing Managers Index June The Georgia component of the Southeast PMI was 56.9 in June Note: 50+ = Expansion Source: Kennesaw State University, Coles College of Business Econometrics Center 13
14 Existing home sales have declined after showing improvement in late 2009 and early Year-over-year percent change 30 Existing Home Sales Q United States Georgia Source: National Association of Realtors, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 14
15 As a result of low sales and high inventories, new home construction remains near historic lows in Georgia and the United States as a whole. 200,000 New Residential Home Construction Permits June , ,000 9, ,000 8, ,000 7, ,000 6, , ,000 80,000 4,000 60,000 40,000 United States (left scale) Georgia (right scale) 3,000 2,000 20,000 1, Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Haver Analytics 0 15
16 Home prices in Georgia have declined substantially over the past five years. After stabilizing somewhat in 2009 and early 2010, prices declined a bit further. Jan 2000 = S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index through May Atlanta Composite 20 FHFA House Price Index: Q yr % change 5-yr % change 10-yr % change United States Georgia Albany Athens Atlanta Brunswick Columbus Dalton Gainesville Macon Rome Savannah Valdosta Warner Robins Source: S&P, Haver Analytics Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 16
17 Office vacancy rates rose throughout the recession but have stabilized in most areas. As a result, commercial construction activity remains low. Percent 24 Office Vacancy Rate Q United States Atlanta Source: CB Richard Ellis, Haver Analytics 17
18 Despite the national pickup in manufacturing activity, industrial availability rates remain elevated in Atlanta. Percent 22 Industrial Availability Rate Q United States Atlanta Source: CB Richard Ellis, Haver Analytics 18
19 Import activity through Georgia s ports is rebounding from the downturn during the recession. Exports through Georgia ports have been increasing. $ thousands Port Activity Q ,000,000 18,000,000 16,000,000 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 Savannah District, imports Savannah District, exports 2,000, Note: The Savannah District includes Atlanta, Brunswick, and Savannah. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Haver Analytics 19
20 For additional sources of information, see our Local Economic Analysis Research Network membership at 20
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